Top Prospects, part 6: Carlos Santana and recap
by APV on Dec 30, 2009 12:00 PM EST
in Analysis
51 comments
In his six seasons with Cleveland, Casey Blake provided a tremendous amount of value as a minor league free agent. 820+ games, five different defensive positions (some better than others), more than 800 hits and an OPS+ of 108. According to FanGraphs data he produced something just north of 12 wins above replacement and something like $29 million dollars in excess value (estimated value-salary). He was a great pickup for a team decidedly lacking talent in the 2002 off-season.
And yet I think there is good reason to be optimistic that Carlos Santana, who the Indians acquired from the Dodgers when Blake was traded in late July, 2008, is going to provide Cleveland with a lot more value. Santana started off in the Dodgers system bouncing between the infield and the outfield. In 2007 they began transitioning Santana to catcher, a process that saw Santana struggle to a .688 OPS. He got off to a hot start in 2008, slugging .993 OPS in the California League (high-A) with Inland Empire. I have no idea how the Dodgers organization viewed him, but Cleveland clearly made a wise choice in asking for him in the Blake trade. Santana showed that his offensive numbers weren't a product of the California League's offensive environment by improving his season line in Kinston with a late-season OPS over 1.000. All in all, 2008 was a tremendously impressive season for the newly converted catcher.
But there were still questions about Santana coming into 2009. Was 2008 an offensive fluke? Could he really stick at catcher? Would he adjust to upper level pitching? All signs point to yes. Santana set career highs in HRs, BBs and had more walks than strikeouts. He has thrown out more than 30% of the runners who have attempted to run on him since joining the Indians organization. There are still questions about how he handles a pitching staff (there was a great article a while back from THT showing how CC Sabathia pitched differently with Jose Molina and Jorge Posada), but Akron's pitching staff was basically dominating in 2009 - with Santana behind the plate.
Santana should be in Cleveland sometime in 2010. And hopefully for many years to come.
| C Santana | PA | aOPS | XBH | ISO | BB% | K% | Net | ProS |
| 2006 | 391 | .661 | 28 | .154 | 13.6 | 15.9 | 17 | 5.02 |
| 2007 | 334 | .769 | 28 | .147 | 12.0 | 13.5 | 22 | 5.62 |
| 2008 | 568 | .959 | 65 | .242 | 15.7 | 15.0 | 71 | 8.78 |
| 2009 | 535 | 1.028 | 55 | .240 | 16.8 | 15.5 | 60 | 10.93 |
Another perspective (age, level, OPS):
- Player A: age 21 (A/A+) - .822, age 22 (A+) - .882, age 23 (AA) - .993
- Player B: age 20 (Rk/A+) - .815, age 21 (A) - .688, age 22 (A+/AA) - .999, age 23 (AA), .943
Player A is Victor Martinez, Player B is Santana...
A recap of this series below the fold:
51 comments | 5 recs |
Indians or The Field?
by afh4 on Dec 29, 2009 7:20 PM EST
in Analysis
68 comments
With Jason Bay headed to Queens, the list of available free agents is slowly shrinking. The 2010 Indians don't look to be a knock-em'-out-the-box-Rick kind of squad. If, for just the 2010 season, you could choose from either a lineup composed of the remaining free agents or the Indians, who you got? I'll be using Bill James' projections (because they're freely available) so whenever I reference them, you can find them with our friends at FanGraphs.
Cleveland LF-Michael Brantley: The Indians seem to really, really like Brantley and with good reason. James has Brantley at a .677 OPS. On first blush, that seemed a little pessimistic to me but Brantley only spat out a .707 OPS last season (I guess it just felt better). I think he'll get to .700 again but it'd be both thrilling and somewhat unlikely to watch him go much higher. He can run like the devil, though.
Free Agent LF-Matt Holliday: Projected to a .922 OPS.
Verdict: On a one year basis, you take Holliday and call it a day. I think there's a decent chance Brantley is more valuable, cost considered, over the life of Holliday's contract, though. It'd help if Brantley was actually considered a good defender. In the tense "wRAA" (that's Runs Above Average based on wOBA) battle, it's Holliday by a score of 37.2 to -4.9. Oof.
68 comments | 1 recs |
Beware the year of the Ox
by APV on Dec 29, 2009 1:46 PM EST
46 comments
At various times over the past 6 months I've tried to get some perspective on how terrible/painful the 2009 season was. Now that the year is coming to an end I was contemplating doing a story on this but given other obligations I simply don't have the time. So instead I am going to ask you all for your thoughts on the topic. Rather than give you my list of reasons why I think 2009 was the worst Cleveland Indians baseball year in my lifetime (1979-present), I'm going to simply post the question and elicit feedback. I'll add some of my thoughts later in the comments.
I should add, however, that I don't mean this to be a "woe is me, the life of a Cleveland fan is never-ending hardship, suffering and tragedy, blah blah blah...." kind of post. I just am generally curious about how bad this year was. For those who disagree, feel free to suggest alternative years (there are a few that stick out in my head as being obvious contenders).
Goodbye (and good riddance) 2009, hello 2010!
46 comments | 0 recs
Top Prospects, part 5.5: The pitchers
by APV on Dec 28, 2009 5:13 PM EST
in Analysis
10 comments
Following up on the previous post in this series, the following is a list of the Indians pitching prospects who were primarily at or above the AA-level in 2009. Todd and Carrasco have already seen time in Cleveland, but none of the others are far off.
Hector Rondon (21.2, AAA) - I think Rondon is the Indians top pitching prospect. He is not universally liked by scouts who question either the ceiling of his fastball or the development of his secondary pitches. But if you look at what Rondon has done in his four years with the organization you can see that he has consistently gotten better even as he has faced increasingly difficult competition. He gets good K-rates, but really excels as a control pitcher. If he can maintain his control while developing a nice swing and miss pitch, I still think he is capable of being a front-line starter. Rondon is on the 40-man roster now, so there is no reason to think we won't see him in Cleveland at some point during the 2010 season.
| H Rondon | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 136.0 | 3.94 | 4.37 | 4.7 | 19.6 | 42.7 | 27 | 6.51 |
| 2008 | 145.0 | 3.44 | 3.60 | 7.0 | 24.0 | 40.1 | 46 | 7.43 |
| 2009 | 146.1 | 3.64 | 3.38 | 4.8 | 22.8 | 37.0 | 48 | 9.35 |
Carlos Carrasco (22.2, MLB) - Part of the Cliff Lee/Ben Francisco quartet, Carrasco's status as a fine pitching prospect is unquestioned. He has shown increased control while maintaining strong K-rates throughout his minor league development, with overall solid performance numbers throughout. The only question now is in making that transition from minor league prospect to major league pitcher. Carrasco has great off-speed stuff, but as we all witnessed during his time in Cleveland last year, his fastball is prone to being hammered. Whether it is deception, velocity, movement or set-up, Carrasco needs to find something to make his fastball work at the big league level. He should have that chance at some point in 2010.
| C Carrasco | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 140.0 | 4.82 | 3.86 | 11.4 | 17.1 | 40.9 | -31 | 4.17 |
| 2008 | 151.1 | 3.33 | 3.69 | 9.0 | 23.9 | 46.7 | 39 | 8.83 |
| 2009 | 157.0 | 3.48 | 3.48 | 6.7 | 22.2 | 40.6 | 28 | 8.69 |
Jess Todd (23.2, MLB) - Todd made 19 appearances in Cleveland following his mid-season acquisition, so it is not as if he is unfamiliar to most of us. With only 22 innings of major league work, though, it is worthwhile to consider Todd in the mix with the rest of these pitchers. Over the past two seasons Todd has successfully made the transition from intriguing starting prospect to dominating high-majors reliever. Relievers get a pretty strong penalty against them in the Progress Score ratings, so that he scores so well speaks to the level of performance he has put up in the minors, including a greater than 5:1 K to BB ratio this season. Could be a nice cornerstone bullpen piece for the next "era" of Indians championship baseball.
| J Todd | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 58.1 | 2.49 | 2.78 | 6.1 | 29.9 | 52.6 | 45 | 4.58 |
| 2008 | 153.0 | 3.49 | 2.88 | 6.9 | 22.3 | 49.5 | 34 | 8.16 |
| 2009 | 53.0 | 2.64 | 2.04 | 6.1 | 31.1 | 45.6 | 40 | 7.67 |
Jeanmar Gomez (21.4, AA)
10 comments | 0 recs |
Joe Posnanski: A Christmas Story
A story about a young paperboy, a retired catcher, and Bob Feller, told like only Joe Posnanski can tell it.
9 days ago
Ryan
5 comments
0 recs
A Preview of "Evaluating Baseball Managers"
by Ryan on Dec 22, 2009 11:58 AM EST
in History
3 comments
Hardball Times columnist Chris Jaffe has graciously sent me some draft excerpts from his forthcoming book on baseball managers titled, appropriately enough, Evaluating Baseball Managers: A Comprehensive History and Performance Analysis, 1876-2008. The book will evaluate managers on both their in-game moves (using sabermetrical approaches), and also their interpersonal skills, whether with players, the front office, the media, or the fanbase.
I was given a selection of Cleveland managers, ranging from Patsy Tebeau (who managed the Spiders) to Mike Hargrove. Jaffe starts each manager's profile with basic data (win-loss record, years managed, etc), then provides several sabermetric statistics, and a brief summary of the characteristics of the teams he managed. For example, one manager tended to have good pitching staffs, but little offensive power. After that comes the heart of the profile: the analysis. In it Jaffe makes use of public opinion, player controversies, and the abilities of the team to illuminate the statistics and tendencies given in the summary. For example, he talked about how Lee Fohl (Cleveland manager from 1915-1919) let captain Tris Speaker make the baseball decisions, unaware that the public now held managers accountable for those decisions. Fohl was fired midway through the 1919 season, with Speaker now as manager officially given the duties Fohl had delegated to him unoffcially.
Another interesting factoid dealt with a more contemporary Cleveland manager. I'm sure most of you remember Mike Hargrove's late-inning efforts to gain the platoon advantage (having a left-handed reliever face a left-handed hitter, and vice versa). According to Jaffe, Hargrove ranks second in post-1956 managers in accomplishing exactly this, even ahead of the matchup guru himself, Tony LaRussa.
I think judging a manager's effectiveness is a difficult task because his visible in-game moves are really a small portion of his work. You can indirectly gauge his ability to balance long-term success with short-term results, but often you don't know how and why the decision was made. And almost unseen by the public are his personal relationships with his players and the front office. The subject has both interested and frustrated me since I've been blogging, and I look forward to poring through Jaffe's entire book to find some insight and better angles with which to view a manager from.
3 comments | 0 recs |
Top Prospects, part 5: The pitchers
by APV on Dec 22, 2009 8:01 AM EST
in Analysis
32 comments
I am breaking up the interesting pitchers into two lists because there are simply too many of them. I am going to include those guys who performed primarily below the AA-level in this first set. These pitchers are not necessarily further from Cleveland, since a few of them are very highly thought of and might advance through the system quickly, but their performance has to be viewed in the context of the lower competition they have faced. I have also added newly-acquired Mitch Talbot to the end of this list. He belongs on the previous fringe list, owing to his age and 2009 performance, but as the numbers below should suggest he would have graded out as a very good prospect prior to this season.
Alexander Perez (19.9, High-A) – Perez got shut down for much of the last two months of the season, but prior to those troubling "soreness" issues, he was one of the Tribe’s biggest 2009 breakouts. A product of the Indians Dominican system, Perez made a very convincing jump from rookie ball last year to Lake County (3.04 ERA, 3:1 K:BB) to Kinston (2.87 ERA, 3.4:1 K:BB). Assuming he comes back healthy (he has avoided surgery so far), Perez will spend most of 2010 as a 20-year old, with Akron not too far ahead of him.
| A Perez | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2008 | 50.2 | 3.27 | 4.26 | 7.8 | 23.9 | 47.1 | 21 | 3.17 |
| 2009 | 114.1 | 3.65 | 2.99 | 7.1 | 22.9 | 48.9 | 39 | 6.67 |
Jason Knapp (18.8, Low-A) – We know the story on Knapp, great fastball and great strikeout numbers. He has had some control issues, and there is on-going concern about the health of his pitching arm. Given his age and performance, though, he is perhaps the highest ceiling pitcher in the Indians system at the moment.
| J Knapp | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2008 | 31.0 | 2.57 | 2.61 | 9.2 | 29.2 | 38.8 | 20 | 4.79 |
| 2009 | 97.0 | 3.68 | 4.18 | 11.4 | 29.7 | 35.6 | 46 | 5.36 |
Nick Hagadone (23.0, High-A) – Hagadone is another new acquisition, and another pitcher with injury questions. Hagadone has been limited to 80 innings in his 3-year professional career because of tommy-john surgery. Healthy now, scouts rave about his stuff (his greater than 30% K-rate this past season does not hurt, either). Like Knapp, Hagadone could use some improvements in his control. Unlike Knapp, Hagadone is decidedly a ground-ball pitcher whose strong downward action has limited his opponents to just a single HR in his pro career.
| N Hagadone | IP | aFIP | ERA | BB% | K% | GB% | Net | ProS |
| 2007 | 24.1 | 2.54 | 1.85 | 8.5 | 35.1 | 59.3 | 21 | 6.01 |
| 2008 | 10.0 | 4.43 | 0.00 | 14.0 | 27.9 | 65.4 | 5 | 2.00 |
| 2009 | 45.0 | 3.17 | 2.80 | 13.0 | 31.9 | 55.5 | 28 | 2.76 |
Scott Barnes (21.8, AA)
32 comments | 0 recs |
RHP Mitch Talbot is PTBN from Shoppach trade.
Castrovince, via Twitter. Hat tip: rolub. Talbot, 26, is out of options, and gets added to the 40-man.
13 days ago
fleerdon
219 comments
0 recs
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AL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota
|
87 | 76 | .533 | 0 | Lost 3 |
|
Detroit
|
86 | 77 | .527 | 1 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
79 | 83 | .487 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Kansas City
|
65 | 97 | .401 | 21.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Cleveland
|
65 | 97 | .401 | 21.5 | Lost 5 |
(updated 1.4.2010 at 1:44 AM EST)
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