Shapiro Refutes Mathematical Analyses Asserting Indians' Competency
by afh4 on Feb 6, 2010 2:29 PM EST
in Humor
37 comments
In a hastily called press conference, Indians General Manager Mark Shapiro spoke out against what he called "an overly beneficent computative smear campaign" that has left fans believing the Indians might reach a level of vague adequacy in the 2010 season. "I have unequivocally stated that I believe this is a club that's rebuilding. For those who do not understand my coded language, I am implying that this is a team that will not win many games at all."
Shapiro said that he had tried to keep mum after seeing the popular Baseball Prospectus "PECOTA" projections that predicted the Indians would finish at 76-86, a record the GM called "unrealistically good but still bad enough that I wasn't going to make a scene." However, when another set of mathematical analyses were released this week, these called the "CHONE" projections, and the Indians checked in at 81-81, good for second in the division, the two-time MLB Executive of the Year award winner felt like he had to speak out.
"You know, 5, 6, 7 years ago, we didn't pay much attention to these projections because the majority of our fans didn't know what they were or what they meant. While it's still true that most fans don't know what they mean, they do hear about them and repeat them around the office. The end result for us is an echo chamber of rising expectations: just weeks ago, we had successfully made the argument that we would finish behind the Royals. Then, yesterday, I heard a caller on WTAM talking about how the Indians had a shot at .500 according to a 'transgression analysis.' I knew I had to speak out."
In remaking his argument for 2010 as an absolute sinkhole of performance, Shapiro reiterated how poor he anticipated the entire pitching staff being but also made sure to highlight the offense and the team's fielding as probable contra assets.
"Yeah, I looked at the nuts and bolts of the CHONE projections, the individual players. Jason Grilli is being projected as a net positive to our club, a guy with an ERA under 4. I signed Grilli as part of my Expectation Realignment Initiation. This was a guy who I thought would send a message to our fans: pack it in, wait till next year. And instead, he's part of some accidental Frankenstein that's supposed to allow our club to win 75 or 80 games? Please. He's got Jhonny Peralta playing defense behind him-we're planning on that! On purpose!"
"At the same time, I don't want to take away from some of the low expectations we have for our offense: I've seen projections that put Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner's total at bats up near a thousand. How is that possible? Those guys are a crystal chandelier fashioned out of champagne glasses hanging over a crevasse of rocks and lava somewhere in an Eastern Bloc state on the moon!"
At the same time, the Indians' top executive refused to give much credit to the younger players he had acquired throughout the last two seasons, stating "they ain't Cliff Lee" and "many of them don't even know some of the rules."
More than anything, Shapiro seemed to want fans to realize what they were getting into if they chose to follow the team over the next 8 months. "Computers are great and all. I used to use one all the time-Hank Peters taught me how. Sometimes, though, when you've been around the game as long as I have, you realize you've got to trust your eyes and your guts. My eyes and guts tell me that this is the worst team I've ever seen."
In assessing his division rivals, Shapiro refused to go into details besides saying that all the other clubs have "tons of good players" while the Indians have "maybe one or two." When pressed for a prediction for this upcoming season, Shapiro would not give a hard guess as to how many games his team could win or lose. "I'm not going to do that-I'm not going to put our guys under that kind of pressure. My prediction is like the Joads in Grapes of Wrath or something. When Ludlow gets stuck in the hold with the baby T-Rex in The Lost World. Misery."
37 comments | 11 recs |
CHONE picks Indians for 2nd place
Funny how a .500 record now passes for irrational exuberance. You can browse through the projections for every team's roster from Sean's home page.
3 days ago
Jay
66 comments
0 recs
Projecting and Predicting the 2010 Tribe: Offense
by APV on Feb 3, 2010 10:53 PM EST
114 comments
With spring training just around the corner most of the well known projection systems have completed their expectations for the upcoming season. These systems vary in the factors they consider, how much "human input" they allow for, and their general level of rigor. I thought it would be interesting to see what they expect for our players, though, and what we predict relative to these projections. Most of us are pretty Tribe-crazy and have a fair amount of human knowledge ourselves about these players and I wonder whether our best predictions (guesses) can do better than some of these systems. Here I am only concerned with rate stats as I don't want to get into the craziness of predicting playing time, and I'm only concerned with over and under. But here are my predictions (guesses) on our offensive players and their performance relative to their projections. (Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and FANS from Fangraphs.com; PECOTA from baseballprospectus.com; CAIRO from rlyw...)
Bill James: .266/.334/.468, CHONE: .263/.337/.457, Marcel: .270/.336/.457, FANS: .269/.350/.463, PECOTA: .259/.345/.471, CAIRO: .258/.346/.463
Everyone loves new toys, and our projected starting firstbaseman is no different. All of the systems except CHONE and Marcel have him hitting over .800 this season. I'm dubious, not because I don't like LaPorta, but I'm concerned about him taking some time to adjust and the effects of spending much of the off-season on crutches.
Prediction: UNDER
Bill James: .294/.358/.421, CHONE: .297/.365/.432, Marcel: .292/.360/.425, FANS: .292/.360/.408, PECOTA: .291/.363/.430, CAIRO: .273/.342/.393
Aside from CAIRO, these are pretty tightly clustered projections in the .760-.800 range. Those seem pretty sensible, but I think Asdrubal stands a solid chance of outperforming these numbers. I think Asdrubal is going to benefit in 2010 not just from natural development, but from having a slightly more stable lineup around him.
Prediction: OVER
Bill James: .257/.323/.399, CHONE: .262/.328/.400, Marcel: .262/.321/.428, FANS: .265/.316/.420, PECOTA: .255/.322/.385, CAIRO: .245/.316/.366
The stupid monkey is the "most" bullish on Valbuena, expecting him to put up just shy of a .750 OPS. CAIRO is again the most pessimistic, putting Valbuena in at .682. Not the most heartwarming projections. I love the way Valbuena sprays linedrives around the field, but his contact ability is a problem, and one that I think he might struggle to adjust with in 2010. i'm going to split the difference here and predict that Valbuena is under the most optimistic forecast and above the low end, so somewhere in the .700-.750 range.
Prediction: EVEN
Bill James: .269/.336/.424, CHONE: .259/.328/.408, Marcel: .267/.330/.423, FANS: .270/.329/.428, PECOTA: .269/.341/.430, CAIRO: .259/.326/.411
CHONE thinks Peralta is going to be Valbuena in 2010, with a .736 OPS. PECOTA likes Jhonny the best as a .770 guy. I think the change of coaching and a little contract pressure push Jhonny back up around the .800 mark for most of the season.
Prediction: OVER
Bill James: .280/.372/.360, CHONE: .255/.343/.349, Marcel: .275/.353/.440, PECOTA: .261/.346/.365, CAIRO: .252/.356/.352
Marson is a bit of a mystery. Marcel, which is bullish on him (.793), apparently has him confused with someone who has some power. I think the Bill James one is closer to what we will see, which is higher than most of them, but not as high as the Marcel figure.
Prediction: EVEN
114 comments | 0 recs
Indians of the Decade: The Sluggers
by afh4 on Jan 30, 2010 6:52 PM EST
in History
227 comments
The is the fourth entry in a series on the Indians of 2000-2009. The last entry, on CC Sabathia, can be read here.
The decade now ended was, for Indians' fans, bookended by two giant, corn-fed, hulking men. Men who hit baseballs with mirthful rage and elicited honest rage from many Clevelanders for totally different reasons. Jim Thome and Travis Hafner could rake.
In 2002, Thome's signature offensive season for the second half of his career, he should've walked away with the MVP-he was in the top five in the league in essentially every important offensive category and posted the third highest OPS+ in team history. It's an offensive season for the ages, the 25th highest OPS+ posted since integration. The icing on the cake, of course, is that it was a walk year and big Jim walked.
227 comments | 1 recs |
Tribe trying to sign Hudson?
"The Indians have explored the idea of trading right-hander Fausto Carmona to clear money for free-agent second baseman Orlando Hudson, but the possibility is unlikely to come to fruition, according to major-league sources.
"Carmona, 26, is guaranteed $4.9 million this season and $6.1 million next season, and the Indians hold club options on him for 2012 and ’13. His trade value, however, is down — he was 5-12 with a 6.32 ERA last season and spent nearly two months at Class AAA.
"The cash-strapped Indians cannot sign Hudson unless they clear a salary such as Carmona’s. Hudson, 32, would be more of a sure thing than the Indians’ current second baseman, Luis Valbuena, who hit 10 home runs in 368 at-bats as a rookie last season, but had only a .298 on-base percentage."
Just me or does this not at all sound like something we'd actually do?
11 days ago
CU Adam
86 comments
0 recs
Transactions: January 2010
by Ryan on Jan 25, 2010 11:47 PM EST
in Transactions
42 comments
1-5-2010
Signed OF Austin Kearns and OF Shelley Duncan to minor-league contracts; Invited them to Spring Training
It's likely one of these two will make the major-league roster. Duncan seems to be trending better than Kearns, but I still hold out some hope that Austin will put things together one of these seasons.
Shelley Duncan had spent his entire professional career with the New York Yankees. He progressed up the organizational ladder slowly, spending two full seasons in the Florida State League, and almost two complete seasons in the Eastern League. He had some success with the Yankees in a short stint in 2007, but only got sporadic spurts in the majors in the two seasons since. He's a corner guy with the ability to hit home runs, and would seem to be a good fit as a bat off the bench. With a left fielder (Brantley) who can play center field and a first baseman (LaPorta) who can play left, there seems to be a role for Duncan - if he hits.
Austin Kearns is still a pretty good defensive corner outfielder, but his last two seasons at the plate with the Nationals were horrible. He's only 30 years old, but his once-promising career has turned drastically south. Still, this is a very good gamble for the Indians to take. If he can hit a little, he'll be a very nice fourth outfielder or perhaps a starter if needed.
1-12-2010
Signed IF Mark Gruzielanek to a minor-league contract; Invited him to Spring Training
I would hope that Grudzielanek is coming into camp mainly to challenge Jason Donald. Grudzielanek didn't play in the majors last season, and logged just 11 games in the Twins' minor-league organization. I suppose we won't know until we see him play in Spring Training whether he can still play a good second base, but if he can, it'll be tempting for the Indians to carry him on their roster instead of Jason Donald.
1-15-2010
Signed C Mike Redmond to a 1-Year, $850K Contract
I don't whether it's sad or funny that Redmond will probably be the only major-league free agent signing the Indians will make this winter. Redmond has made a career of being a backup, never logging more than 90 games in any of his 12 major-league seasons. He's spent the last five seasons playing behind Joe Mauer, and though he had some excellent offensive seasons with the Twins, his bat tailed off dramatically in 2009. At this point, the only thing Redmond has over Wyatt Toregas is experience, and given Redmond's particular experience (last five seasons in the AL Central), it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.
Traded IF Jesus Brito (SSA) to the Pittsburgh Pirates for IF Brian Bixler
Bixler is 27 years old, an Ohio native, and is a decent defender at shortstop or second base. He's also out of options, and has been a disaster at the plate. In his 166 plate appearances, he's struck out a mind-boggling 62 times and walked just 8 times. His minor-league numbers suggest that these ratios aren't just a product of small sample size. Maybe the Indians can break down and rebuild his swing, but they better do it quickly, since they'll have just six weeks to make a decision on him.
42 comments | 0 recs |
Indians swap with Bucs for Bixler!
Looks like Sandusky native and AAA infielder Brian Bixler gets a chance to play for the hometown team.
Indians lose a minor-leaguer.
[UPDATE: Bixler has been added to the 40-man roster. The Indians gave up Jesus Brito, a 22-year-old third baseman. Brito played last season for the Indians' Arizona League team and Mahoning Valley. Between the two levels, he hit .353/.431/.567 in 262 PA. I'll have more on this trade tonight. (Ryan)]
Indians of the Decade: CC
by Ryan on Jan 18, 2010 12:48 AM EST
in History
59 comments
The is the third entry in a series on the Indians of 2000-2009. The introductory entry can be read here, and Andrew's outstanding essay on Victor and Grady can be read here.
Just as a wildebeest will inevitably be eaten by a lion, or a hyena, or a leopard, or a cheetah, it is an almost incontrovertible rule of the baseball food chain that great players today are destined to be known and remembered as a player for the team they signed a large free agent contract with. Alex Rodriguez, Mariner? Surely you jest. Mark Teixeira, Ranger? Just a prelude to his real career. Manny Ramirez, Indian? Ancient history. The only people who will remember are the fans that watched that player break in, struggle, and finally show those first signs of greatness. And while only memories remain of CC Sabathia, Indian, those memories merit your fondness.
59 comments | 3 recs |
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AL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota
|
87 | 76 | .533 | 0 | Lost 3 |
|
Detroit
|
86 | 77 | .527 | 1 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
79 | 83 | .487 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Kansas City
|
65 | 97 | .401 | 21.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Cleveland
|
65 | 97 | .401 | 21.5 | Lost 5 |
(updated 2.8.2010 at 10:47 PM EST)
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