Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
An interesting note in Terry Pluto's column today. The Indians inquired about Mike Gonzalez, but the Pirates wanted Victor Martinez back. They then planned to move him permanently to first. Now I admire the Bucs for trying to acquire Victor; but that they would then destroy much of his value by moving him to first is revealing. This is the sort of thing that keeps them in last place.
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Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by mauichuck on Dec 10, 2006 10:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
Last season Victor threw out 18% of runners, not good. Who else threw out 18%, Bengie Molina...fresh off his 2002, 2004, and 2005 post-seasons. AJ Pierzynski, reigning world series catcher, he threw out 21% (in one less attempt, he threw out a whopping 3 more runners than Victor). Brad Ausmus, defensive catcher extraordinare, he threw out 22% of runners. Jason Varitek, he also only threw out 22% of the runners against him. And, obviously, don't make me mention Mike Piazza.
This notion that you can't make it to the post-season or be successful with a catcher who's bad at throwing out runners should just stop. Catchers do more than throw out runners to affect the outcome of a game, like handle the pitching staff, field pitches, and oh yeah, hit. Victor happens to be quite good at all of those. In the end, not many seasons collapse under the impact of a dozer or so extra-bases accumulated by the opposition.
by APV on Dec 10, 2006 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by mjmarble on Dec 10, 2006 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by jdudas on Dec 10, 2006 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
And you are right, we need his bat, probably more than we need Garko's. But does V Mart have to catch to be in the line-up? No. That's what I'm talking about. Where can you play Victor where his defensive shortcomings don't kill us. That's right, I think he will lose us 4-6 games a year because he can't hold runners on base.
So here's the decision point: is V Mart more valuable to us as a catcher, first baseman, DH or other position player or will he bring us something we desperately need (like a closer)in the trade market. If I could get Joe Nathan for Victor (an unlikely event) he'd be gone today. I think that V Mart is one of those high value players that he can afford to give up for the right missing piece. (And yes, I don't think that the Indians have solved their closer problem yet)
So let's just agree to disagree. Until he improves his catching foot-work and starts throwing out more than 25% of attemted base-stealers, I think that V Mart is more of a liability behind the plate than his hitting and pitcher handling is worth.
by mauichuck on Dec 10, 2006 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
he'd have also had a 593 OPS.
by nctribefan on Dec 10, 2006 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
This may reduce the sample size too much to be enlightening, but nonetheless interesting.
by dvd1204 on Dec 10, 2006 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by exileincincy on Dec 10, 2006 10:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by Joe. on Dec 10, 2006 11:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by exileincincy on Dec 10, 2006 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
So for the Pirates - who have a good group of young catchers - this isn't a bad IDEA.
I would hate it though!
by Brandini on Dec 10, 2006 2:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by world dictator on Dec 10, 2006 4:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
But what we've also overlooked is that they don't need to hit. Yadier Molina, people. Yadier Molina. I can't stress that enough. And keep going, back through championship teams of the past-- It's not a Murderer's Row at the backstop. A throwing catcher is not of high importance, but I can't say a hitting one is either. Just one or the other seems to suffice. And we can get A LOT for Victor.
Victor for Gonzalez, straight up, seems uneven to me given Gonzalez's recent injury. If they threw in another player, I'd think about it. Also, if they'd take Garko + pitcher (Anywhere from Carmona to Guthrie), I'd think about that too.
And it beats the hell out of some of our other options. Especially since those options are mostly one-year terms. Gonzalez would be our CLOSER. Not a rental.
by nickjs21 on Dec 10, 2006 8:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
- Victor 194
- Mauer 187
- Posada 163
- Kendall 157
- Lo Duca 131
- Piazza 120
x. Molina 83
Realistically, Shoppach isn't going to produce much more than Molina, i.e., 55 runs per year less than Victor. 55 runs. How significant is that?
Well, the Indians scored 870 runs last season, and the median for AL teams was 805. So our advantage over the typical team at the plate was about 65 runs.
Which is to say, replacing Victor is going to erase a significant part of our overall offensive attack. Not to be taken lightly.
by Jay on Dec 11, 2006 7:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by nickjs21 on Dec 11, 2006 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
I disagree. Victor is not good at a lot of those things.
He misses throws from the OF often.
He is not good at calling pitches. How many times have you seen a RP come in and throw FB after FB.
Every single year he has been the fulltime catcher, the backup catcher has had a lower CERA.
Martinez' batting numbers are much better as a 1B than as a catcher. I could easily see Martinez win a batting title as a 1B.
IMO, Martinez' OPS would increase by at least 100 as a full time 1B.
by ronh on Dec 10, 2006 9:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
He is not good at calling pitches. How many times have you seen a RP come in and throw FB after FB.
The CERA argument has always struck me as comical. First of all, Victor caught one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball in 2005, which of course, he was not responsible for. Now he's being held responsible for the 2006 bullpen only. I'm not taking sides in this argument, but at least be consistant.
IMO, Martinez' OPS would increase by at least 100 as a full time 1B.
Why is this always framed as a black-or-white argument? What is so wrong with Victor playing first base against left-handed pitching? Shoppach gets his 150-200 at-bats, Victor gets more of a rest, and Ryan Garko gets playing time.
by Ryan on Dec 10, 2006 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by MTF on Dec 11, 2006 8:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
- Our control of running game would improve significantly
- Victor probably can be a superior defender at 1B (unlike Garko)
- Victor has less wear-and-tear on his body, possibly gains 50+ points of OPS
So I don't like it. Victor as the main 1B, backup C, that actually makes more sense to me. It gives us a far greater offensive hurdle to clear, but Victor is a better hitter than Garko or Choo at the moment anyway.
by Jay on Dec 11, 2006 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
Yes, we all saw how disgusted Garko was with not even being given a chance to compete for the 1B job in spring training.
"Victor as the main 1B, backup C, that actually makes more sense to me."
Would you agree that Garko is a better hitter then Shoppach?
So would Garko+Martinez be more beneficial then Martinez+Shoppach?
Sure you might save some runs on the defensive side of the ball, but is it enough to make up for the difference between Garko and Shoppach?
by Brandini on Dec 11, 2006 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by Jackdaw on Dec 11, 2006 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by nickjs21 on Dec 11, 2006 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
You should know that you can't compare CERA for catchers of different teams.
In 2005, Bard caught Elarton more than any other pitcher and he still had a lower CERA than Martinez.
The huge difference in SB/9 between the two blows out of the water the excuse some want to use that it was the pitchers fault for some of the SB.
Now he's being held responsible for the 2006 bullpen only. I'm not taking sides in this argument, but at least be consistant.
You ignored this fact.
Every single year he has been the fulltime catcher, the backup catcher has had a lower CERA.
I would call that consistant.
You said Martinez is good at handling the pitching staff. Do you have any facts to back this up?
by ronh on Dec 11, 2006 9:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by APV on Dec 11, 2006 9:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
I agree. And you definitely can't use CERA to compare catchers of different teams.
But when Bard catches Elarton for 1/3 of his innings and Elarton has a lower ERA by almost a run, that says a lot.
When the majority of the pen has a lower ERA when Bard catches, that is becoming too much evidence for me to ignore.
by ronh on Dec 11, 2006 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
There is little doubt that Victor's a big league hitter. I just don't think he's a big league catcher.
by mauichuck on Dec 11, 2006 10:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by APV on Dec 11, 2006 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by Brandini on Dec 11, 2006 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
I did this on another forum comparing Bard and Martinez in 2005. Unfortunately, I can't find it now. The only parts I still have is this.
Virtually every pitcher had a lower ERA when Bard was their catcher.
In 2005, Bard caught Millwood for 21.2 innings. There was 1 SB attempt (3B) and it was successful. That's 0.414 per 9 inn.
Martinez caught Millwood for 170.1 innings. There were 38 SB attempts and 32 were successful. That's 1.690 per 9 innings.
If Bard had the same SB rate for the 170.1 inn then there would have been 8 SB instead of 32.
I know, small sample size. But when it happens every single year, with different backups, you have to acknowledge it.
by ronh on Dec 11, 2006 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by Brandini on Dec 11, 2006 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
Is there a reason for me to change my opinion on this? Did I misunderstand BP? Have they reversed field?
If not, then I'll kindly continue to ignore it.
by afh4 on Dec 11, 2006 12:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by exileincincy on Dec 11, 2006 1:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by fanintexas on Dec 11, 2006 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
Martinez 4.48
Shoppach 4.11
2005 CERA
Martinez 3.68
Bard 3.20
2004 CERA
Martinez 4.98
Bard 3.91
Laker 4.31
Sandy Martinez 3.00
Info from ESPN.com.
If it jumped back and forth, I would say you should ignore it. But since it is the same every year, with different backups, that looks like a pattern that should not be ignored.
by ronh on Dec 11, 2006 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
The 1st column of numbers are the innings that Bard caught them. Then their ERA when Bard caught them. Then their ERA when Martinez caught them.
............................Bard...Vic
Betancourt 7.0 1.29 2.97
Elarton 63.6 3.96 4.95
Howry 16.0 1.13 2.84
Lee 11.6 2.33 3.88
Miller 6.0 0.00 2.28
Millwood 21.6 4.58 2.64
Rhodes 7.6 2.37 2.02
Riske 15.3 1.18 3.61
Sabathia 44.3 3.25 4.25
Sauerbeck 8.0 5.63 3.57
Wickman 9.0 1.00 2.72
Eight of 11 pitchers had a higher ERA when Martinez caught them. And all of those 8 had a ERA > 0.98 higher when caught by Martinez.
Bard had a lower CERA than Martinez even though he caught Elarton more than any other pitcher.
by ronh on Dec 11, 2006 3:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by APV on Dec 11, 2006 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
I can easily find you data of a player who consistently hits more homeruns against teams in the AL Central or the NL East or whatever. Just because it holds 'true' for one player for an 5-10 year span doesn't mean it's a real effect. There are an incredible number of other factors that you're ignoring, especially considering how small the sample is. Just to scratch the surface, you're not taking into account who the team is facing when a given catcher is catching and you're not anywhere near the amount of data needed for me to assume those differences are evening out.
I can think of numerous other contingencies like that which are the reason CERA is not valuable on this kind of blunt object level and I trust BP when they tell me it's not very useful on a detailed level either. Again, if I've misunderstood BP or they have found something new, I apologize and let me know. But just listing CERA is doing nothing for me.
by afh4 on Dec 11, 2006 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
When BP says that Peralta was one of the best SS in the ML in 2006, I have a hard time believing anything else they say.
by ronh on Dec 11, 2006 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by mkwng on Dec 11, 2006 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
Martinez gave up 96 SB and had 29 CS in 1233 inn.
Bard 10 SB att in 220 inn = 0.409 SBA per 9 inn.
Martinez 125 SBA in 1233 inn = 0.912 SBA/9.
Bard allowed 7 SB in 220 inn = 0.286 SB/9
Martinez allowed 96 SB in 1233 inn = 0.701 SB/9
If Bard had the same SBA rate for the 1233 inn that Martinez caught, there would have been 56 SBA. Or 69 less SBA.
If Bard had the same SB rate for the 1233 innings that Martinez caught, he would have allowed 39 SB. Or 57 less SB.
by ronh on Dec 11, 2006 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by afh4 on Dec 11, 2006 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by mauichuck on Dec 11, 2006 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
I am still waiting for someone to show that Martinez is a good handler of pitchers.
Wedge spin doesn't count.
by ronh on Dec 11, 2006 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by fwembt on Dec 11, 2006 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
Even this armchair GM'ing is tough. It's a good thing the Indians don't rely on me to run the team.
by mauichuck on Dec 11, 2006 3:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by exileincincy on Dec 11, 2006 3:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
by Jay on Dec 11, 2006 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
- Does he do a good job block the plate?
- Does he block pitches in the dirt?
- Does he frame the pitch to get those close strikes calls?
- Does he provide the pitcher a good target without giving away the pitch location to the batter?
- Does he call a good game?
by fanintexas on Dec 12, 2006 12:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Pluto on Mike Gonzalez
Yes he blocks the plate well. Problem is that he doesn't catch the ball a few times too many.
Does he block pitches in the dirt?
He is good at this.
Does he provide the pitcher a good target without giving away the pitch location to the batter?
Martinez is very poor on this one. Set's up way too soon.
Does he call a good game?
He is poor on this one. Calling FB after FB because he can't throw out the runner has led to a lot of bullpen collapses.
I like Martinez as a hitter. I suspect he would hit into less DPs if he wasn't worn out as a catcher.
Either Martinez or Garko should be traded for a stud player or prospect.
Gonzalez for Martinez is not enough.
by ronh on Dec 12, 2006 9:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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