Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
Both of these players were/are considered 5-tool player-prospects. This is a summary of their achievements.
Prospect A: (age 24 in 2007)
totals from 6 yrs in minor leagues (559 games)
.277 BA, .345 OBP, .452 SLG, .797 OPS, 66 HR, 77 SB, 203/524 BB/K
Prospect B: (age 26 in 2007)
totals from 7 yrs in minor leagues (556 games)
.293 BA, .335 OBP, .401 SLG, .736 OPS, 20 HR, 64 SB, 131/299 BB/K
Best minor league season:
A (age 20, A+ level):
.282 BA, .345 OBP, . 513 SLG, .853 OPS, 20 HR, 17 SB in 110 games
B (age 22, AA level):
.352 BA, .402 OBP, .527 SLG, .923 OPS, 11 HR, 11 SB in 127 games.
Major league experience:
A (age 23, MLB):
.272 BA, .288 OBP, .360 SLG, .648 OPS, 1 HR in 43 games
B (age 23, MLB):
.286 BA, .338 OBP, .383 SLG, .721 OPS, 1 HR in 111 games
(age 24, MLB):
.262 BA, .306 OBP, .397 SLG, .703 OPS, 10 HR in 146 games
(age 25, MLB)--breakout year
.302 BA, . 349 OBP, .516 SLG, .865 OPS, 17 HR in 128 games
Any idea whom these respective players are?
If you figure it out, you will understand why I am posting it here, and why we should pause to reconsider some of our trade suggestions.
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Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
I'm not really sure what the point is, though.
by gogiggs on Dec 20, 2006 9:44 PM EST reply actions
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by Brandini on Dec 21, 2006 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
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The point was that discussions on this site concerning Rios ranged from trading CC to Westbrook + Carmona + Gutierrez for Rios, while by all indications Guts could be as productive as Rios given the chance. The minor league stats are similar, favoring Gut. in power and Rios in contact. Rios was promoted to the ML too early and did not breakout until his 3rd full year.
The point was only that the Tribe could well have an in-house, long-term option, but Gutierrez seems to be off everyone's radar.
I guess it seemed more interesting last night.
Feel free to ignore.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
So, apparently, the point is that Franklin Gutierrez had similar numbers to Rios at the same age and maybe we don't need to trade for Rios because maybe we already have a guy who could develop into the same kind of player.
It's a point, I suppose, but I would counter thusly: No matter how high the likelihood that FG develops into Rios, it's less than the 100% chance that Rios will develop into Rios. No matter how soon FG might develop into Rios, it won't be as soon as already.
I think the Indians can take the Central this year (and, yeah, I thought that last year, too, but...). I'm not interested in building for two years from now. Passing on an upgrade now because we might develop a similar player in a couple years... well, that was ok for 2002 and 2003. It's not ok for 2007.
by gogiggs on Dec 21, 2006 5:40 AM EST reply actions
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For what it's worth, I think the idea of trading CC and/or Carmona for Rios is a very bad one. Trading Westbrook and/or Gutierrez, on the other hand, seems like a fine idea.
by gogiggs on Dec 21, 2006 5:53 AM EST reply actions
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
by Rayman @ Let's Go Tribe! on Dec 21, 2006 9:06 AM EST up reply actions
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I don't like the idea of adding another bat unless there is a garuntee for a new pitcher to be acquired.
I don't think the Indians have enough of what they would be willing to part with(Miller, Sowers, Carmona, Lofgren and Crowe are probably all untouchable) that the Jays would want for a guy that in my opinion you could at the very least build an outfield around, if not an entire batting order (the Indians already have that guy in Sizemore).
People have brought up Choo v. Rios and now Gutz v. Rios. I think all are reasonable comparisons and potentially accurate. Although firstinning.com has Choo as producing around an 800 OPS for the next 3 seasons and Gutierrez at around 700. In order for Rios to hit those numbers, he would have to take a significant step back from his "breakout" year. I think expecting a breakout year is impossible and innacurate.
by Brandini on Dec 21, 2006 10:28 AM EST reply actions
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
I think it brings home the fact that sometimes we tend to be pretty critical of our own "prospects" and tend to focus on their warts (at least with Frank the Tank, I do) while thinking that other teams' players are without fault.
Obviously sometimes we overvalue our own prospects, but the notion that the "grass is always greener" applies to some of these players.
Perhaps a player like Gutz just needs everyday AB in Cleveland to "break-out".
That's what happened with Grady a few years back. But, who is this year's "pleasant surprise"?
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
Take for example the Dany Graves threat to the right. Colorado giving him a minor league contract is laughable, but hardly anyone raised a brow when Shapiro sent him a contract.
Add in Jason Johnson...He has become the scum of the pitching earth by most accounts on this board. There were threads everytime a new team picked him up this year and how those teams were stupid (or something to that extent). However, when the same - if not worse - decision was made by Shapiro, posters on this board were content with JJ as the Tribes fifth starter.
I would suggest that for the most part, posters on this website are fair when evaluating prospects, but seemingly only those that are valuable in the GMs eyes (which is a safe ascertion). I would also suggest that the grass is rarely greener from the perspective of posters on this site, given I rarely hear anyone say anything about an "up and coming" KC team.
by Brandini on Dec 21, 2006 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
.....................
That's what I thought - nobody (me included).
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
That said, I bet if you went to a Tigers website, there would be atleast a handful of people who saw that coming.
by Brandini on Dec 21, 2006 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
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As to the prescience of the Tigers fans, they like most fans have predicte 20 out of the last two WS victories.
As a wise baseball sage once said about comparing players, "The idea that either of those two is more reliably going to produce X in the next season is just a fallacy." The same is true for baseball teams.
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But again, that isn't the point...The point was that posters on this board typically hold our prospects to a higher degree then they do the opponents prospects. While in a way it has been true, some of the "best" prospects in the Cleveland organization haven't ended up being the best once they made it to the big stage, but its hard to imagine anyone being anti-Miller until he is on another team.
by Brandini on Dec 21, 2006 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
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And we've dealt prospects for Hafner and Barfield.
With no judgement on current players, it's misinformation to think we're in some sort of 'lull' prospect wise. Most of our best players made their marks as Cleveland Indians and many of those made their debut with the Indians.
And neither Alomar was ever a true "indians" prospect. I don't think either one ever played for a minor league affiliate, though Sandy might have briefly.
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And, it's important to me that Grady played in Buffalo. Sandy never did. And if you want to parse like that then you've got even more work to do. Baerga hardly played in the Indians minor league system and I don't believe Lofton did at all.
Also, you're disregarding CC who might be the most valuable out of the whole group.
All I'm trying to get at is that even if this system doesn't live up to your memories of the 1990s, it's still among the best in baseball and has already produced truly remarkable players. Acting like it's a disappointment isn't appropriate, regardless of how good Manny Ramirez was.
You're also mixing eras very liberally; if the "old" system gets to claim Sandy Alomar and Carlos Baerga then it's a tough sell that it also gets to claim Richie Sexson.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
Don't get me wrong, I love some of Shapiro's moves - the Barfield trade was inspired (even if I thought - think - that Kouzmanoff's gonna be a hell of a player). I just don't get the "roll the dice" feel from Shapiro. Here's hoping that my pessimism is mis-placed
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
Yeah, and that's a damn good thing, I'd say.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
I think when all is said and done, this decade's homegrown Indians will stand up well next to the last decade's. Maybe not quite its equal, but quite well.
On a related note, when I was looking at those Top 100 prospect lists, I noticed that in 1999, the Indians had exactly one player on that list, Russ Branyan. So that's how bad it got in between.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
We're not likely to see it on another team either, though. The real streak, as I see it, was the freakish drafting and development of Belle, Thome, Ramirez and Giles over just a handful of years. I think it is more impressive than the A's "big three" pitchers, but it gets a lot less ink.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
To have those 3, entering their prime, all at the same time - with the rest of the lineup to boot is astounding.
It made me head over to the Cube and check out the 1995 team, on which both Thome and Ramirez had OPS over .900...from the 6 and 7 hole!
Suffice it to say, THAT will never be seen again. Incredible.
by The DiaTriber on Dec 21, 2006 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
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Did I mention that Manny and Jimmy look like they're 15? And that Eddie Murray looked exactly the same, as he has since 1983.
by The DiaTriber on Dec 21, 2006 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
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I know, I know "get over it".
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What a joke of a trade. Drese and a backup catcher for the best hitter in baseball plus some random and terrible pitcher. I know there were mitigating factors regarding Hafner being blocked, defensive liabilities, etc, but that's got to be one of the absolute worse trades of the last decade. Easily the most lopsided since 2000 right? Geez.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
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The analytical and exhaustive nature of people here tend to take a comprehensive look at the Tribe's prospects, often exposing shortcomings that "most fans" aren't even aware of.
by The DiaTriber on Dec 21, 2006 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
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Nobody was surprised that Grady broke out, only that he did it so quickly.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
Maybe Gutierrez 2008 = Rios 2006. But it's 2007 right now.
Time value of money.
We need that player already arrived, not eventually to arrive.
As in, now.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
The ones who become really great, which Rios may have (depending on this season), are the exceptions, not the rule. The rule is that FGutz will turn into a fourth outfielder. I hope he's an exception but, well, I hope so.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
To say nothing of the fact that when one player strikes out 75 percent more often than the other, you can hardly say they're on the same path.
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Rios was the top prospect in the Jays system for at least 18 months; Gutierrez has never really gotten close to that honor for Cleveland and I don't think that's completely a product of the strength of our system.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
I guess my original point stands but I don't know if my take on the players' respective stocks as minor leaguers is really that accurate. I'm letting my disappointment in Gutz year this past season creep in.
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Sure, the casual fan dreams of an outfield of Snyder, Sizemore, and Gutz in 2008; but that's only because they don't know any better. Most fans (not associated with this forum or like forums) could tell you about Brian Barton.
Gutz could turn into a Rios, but I hope that the growing pains of his evolution aren't done at the Jake because this team is past that point.
by The DiaTriber on Dec 21, 2006 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
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"Gutierrez is a legitimate five-tool outfielder. His power is his most obvious skill, but he also can hit for average, steal bases, cover enough ground to play center field and throw well enough to play right."
In 2005, after an off-year, he was ranked #54 -- three spots behind Choo, incidentally. (Which should belie any notion that Choo was never considered a top prospect.)
Notables from the 2004 Top 100:
- Mauer
- Rios
- Sizemore
- Marte
- Morneau
- Barfield
- David Wright
- Choo
- Guthrie
- Gutierrez
- Jason Bay
- Carmona
- Aubrey
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http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/26983.html
And I realize now that I kind of got the 2004 and 2005 lists mixed up together.
Oh, well.
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Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
And I love the EPS. It's Indians only, how can I resist?
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And, obviously, that doesn't mean we should anticipate any of them being as good as Rios was last year even once in their careers. I think these sorts of comparison's are a sort of fool's gold-the jump to being a highly, highly productive major leaguer happens for only a few out of the many who look sort of similar on paper.
Sure, if Gutz turns out to be awesome after the Indians cut bait, then you can say all day that we should've seen it coming. But it's that sort of mentality that's led to the stockpiling of prospects that many people see as Shapiro's biggest blind spot as a GM.
Rios is a proven commodity, or a nearly proven one. I just don't think the comparison to Gutz is any more valid than someone saying Brian Anderson or Jeremy Reed "compares" to Grady (Anderson actually posted a better OPS in AAA). Well, yeah. They kind of do. But they're not Grady and history tells us they will probably never be even close to the player he is.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
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I guess I'm just sort of blowing smoke about the old 20 prospects for every one major leaguer line.
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Anderson was 37 in 2005. How is that substantially different from Gutz? It's almost totally analogous, right?
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That said, I'm a big proponent of Gutierrez after watching him a little in Buffalo. I like the idea of him getting at least a RHP platoon shot in 2008 (if not sooner, Mr. Michaels), hand-cuffed to Dellucci or Choo. But I don't think the Indians can afford to develop Gutierrez in the same way the Blue Jays did Rios. Just my two cents...
by peyton46 @ Let's Go Tribe! on Dec 21, 2006 3:19 PM EST reply actions
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On a related note.....if we signed siamese twins as a RF or LF platoon....would they take up one roster spot....or two?
by Pronkta Clause on Dec 21, 2006 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
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you just gotta believe that Marte is going to break out in a big way very soon. I'm sure one could find prospects consistently in the top 20 at a young age who did not, but with Marte being ranked by the baseball community as (from 2003-6) #40-11-9-14(MLB), and given that it usually takes these top guys a couple years to put it all together, I think we are going to be very happy very soon.
Re: Interesting comparison-thinkaboutit
by 5tribetipies on Dec 22, 2006 2:03 PM EST reply actions
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In general Blake is simply better at this point than Gutz is. He generated nearly twice as many RC/G than Gutz and posted an OPS+ of 117. That is certainly serviceable. While Gutz may eventually grow into a better player, right now Blake is handling the position just fine.
I got my stats from Baseball-reference.com. Does anyone know if that is a completely reliable source?

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