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Sunday Roundup

Sheldon Ocker's Mailbag. ABJ

I'm not too interested in rehashing the topic from last week, but I at least have to mention this fan's response:

Sheldon:

I agree that the public relations dilemma has grown into a stigma that shouldn't be ignored.

Shapiro's approach has been, basically, screw the PR, just win and the fans will come. In general, he obviously is right about this, but is it really absolute? And if not, where is the limit? At what point do you say, maybe all these smart moves really can hurt us in ticket sales?

Maybe Dolan needs to spend a half-million on a clever PR firm that can help him figure out how to get out of this box. Or maybe they just need to find a new, cool nickname for another player -- and then don't trade him.

Jay S. Levin

Dear Jay:

Let me start the ball rolling. How about A-Rod or Rocket? Those aren't taken yet, are they?

S.O.

Well, it's obvious the Indians have realized that the Cool Nickname Average (heretofore referred to as CNA) is a key factor to getting fans to attend. Just look at the players they've added recently: Juan Valdes, Bubbie Buzachero, Doodle Hicks, Boodle Clark, Ben Francisco, and of course, they wouldn't have traded for plain 'ol Travis Hafner if he didn't have a cool nickname.

Because the Indians, besides the defense they lost, definitely downgraded the CNA, they need to think about coming up with a new cool nickname for Jason Michaels or Paul Byrd to help compensate. I wouldn't doubt if you got hold of Dolan's books, you'd probably find under Expenses a line item called "Nickname Procurement Expense." After all, that's what brings fans to the ballpark.

You can't seriously think these two deals make the Indians better this season. The allure of Jason Michaels is based almost solely on his on-base percentage as a part-time player.

But on-base percentage isn't everything. A better measurement of a hitter's value is how often he gets himself into scoring position (by double, triple, homer, steal).

Michaels doesn't run and doesn't amass many extra-base hits. In the past two years, he has gotten himself to second or beyond only 18 percent of the time he reaches base. Crisp, by contrast, has reached second or farther 34 percent of time, a substantial difference over a 550-at-bat season.

And I return to my original point. If the team faces a backlash from the fans (in the form of withheld support at the gate), it doesn't really matter who's right and who's wrong.

S.O.

"Sheldon, Buster Olney on Line Two. He wants to break out a new stat...the Getting to Second Base Percentage (GSB%). And he wants to credit you for coming up with it!"

The next question, obviously, is why Ocker failed to mention that Michaels scored a higher percentage of runs than Crisp did last season. Surely it had nothing to do with Michaels getting on base at a higher clip.

Word is that Roger Brown wrote a Sunday column, but I can't substantiate it. Sorry, I know you're disappointed.

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Re: Sunday Roundup
Wow, I really love Sheldon Q&A, the guy is a A-hole. When someone asks a good question, he goes into his better than you tone, because he doesn't know the answer.  
Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Feb 12, 2006 1:12 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
It's funny, but what Sheldon is clumsily grasping for is "runs created per 27 outs."  He wants to boil down the skills and tendencies that are really critical to run scoring.  If he really wanted a truthful answer to that question, I'm sure he could find it with just a few minutes of research.

Just goes to show ... some people just don't want to know.  They like their weak grasp of reality just the way it is.

by Jay on Feb 12, 2006 2:12 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
More and more, it becomes obvious that the depth and quality of the baseball blogs such as letsgotribe.com make the comments of Sheldon Ocker and his colleagues of the baseball press more and more irrelevant.

I have been more stimulated, excited, and informed by the stats, information, and opinions of Ryan and Jay of letsgotribe.com and other baseball blogs in their short history on the Web than by the years of columns by Sheldon Ocker and his fellow local sports columnists.

It's not even close.

by ploni on Feb 12, 2006 2:45 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Frankly, I'm surprised the old curmudgeon even allowed that question to be printed.  He sounds like a damned fool trying to explain how players contribute to run scoring.  

by cheech99 on Feb 12, 2006 3:23 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
By the way, if anyone is still wondering, the entire column was written sarcastically. Including the first letter, which apparently went way over Ocker's head.

by Ryan on Feb 12, 2006 3:50 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Ryan is apparently worried about outing me ... of course I wrote that first letter.

by Jay on Feb 12, 2006 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
The interesting thing is that Coco had 90% of his ABs in the #1 or #2 slot -- Michaels only 53%.  Hard to believe that Coco got to second base more than Michaels did when he had Peralta, Pronk and VMart batting right behind him.  

Also, as I'm sure you all know, Bro Jay included, was that Michaels' RC/27 was higher than Coco's last year -- 6.08 to 5.80.  

I wrote Sheldon this afternoon to show him these things.  I also directed him to this blog.  It would be kind of interesting to see him as a member.  

BTW, missin' the idle banter on the Tribe List Jay...  It's just not the same anymore.  Although I do enjoy the blog.  Keep up the good work fellas.  

by Chris @ Let's Go Tribe! on Feb 12, 2006 7:59 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Glad I wasn't the only one flummoxed by GSB%.  Huh?   We should get Bill James on that one pronto. And if we want cool nicknames, who had a better one than the Bogalusa Bomber.  No need for a PR firm.  Just bring back Mudcat Grant.  He could do an Animal House-style lineup and just apply nicknames to all the newbies.  Pinto anyone?  That'll bring the fans back.

Poppycock.  Fans didn't come last year until August.  And Coco was live and in person every night.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 12, 2006 9:34 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
I'm curious also about this supposed "box" that Dolan is in.  It sounds like it boils down to people wanting someone else to spend money recklessly on something YOU want. And hurting "us" in ticket sales?  How lovely, the Royal We!

Ocker sounds like part of a throng egging on jumpers off the Golden Gate bridge.  "Jump, jump, jump (on Kevin Millwood for $60 million, or Trevor Hoffman...give the man $30 million...why do I care!)"

Then after Dolan overpays for the next Lawton, he'll be first in line to stone him.

I'm not in Cleveland, but what is this hard-on Ocker and the pundits have against Dolan?  From this vantage, the team appears to be spending quite wisely.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 12, 2006 9:52 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Welcome, Bogalusa.  You pegged it just right.  Sadly, I saw this coming in August.  Had we squeaked out a playoff berth, there would be a lot less hand-wringing, and a lot more celebrating of the best Indians team we've had since Belle left.

by Jay on Feb 12, 2006 10:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Depending on which way the wind is blowing, you'll see the support of Indian writers sway in one direction or the opposite.

One minute, they are praising Shapiro's adherance to the Blueprint.  The next, they want Manny Ramirez at $20M a year.

If the Indians had Colon, Ramirez, Thome, and Robbie Alomar, we'd be 80 wins with all the name recognition Ocker and Hoynes could dream of.  Would they be happy then?

Damned if you do, damned if you don't...right?

If 93 wins doesn't please them, I don't know what does.

by rick @ Let's Go Tribe! on Feb 12, 2006 10:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
So do you think they don't really have a clear point of view on any of this stuff, or are they just blatantly pandering, stirring up the readers, etc.?

Equal plug time ... rick writes the Indians reports for Most Valuable Network, also worth a read ... http://indians.mostvaluablenetwork.com/ ... sure is nice to have everyone hanging out here.  I assume it's because we have the biggest TV and the best liquor.

by Jay on Feb 12, 2006 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
I thought it was tribeinne that keeps em coming back for more.

by oxforddave on Feb 12, 2006 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
I was so irate after reading Ocker's A. to Jay's Q. (not realizing that it was Jay of this blog)this morning, it was hard to rationalize any comeback more sophisticated than a 3rd grade playground put-down.

But, you guys did it.  Succinctly and effectively.

I heard Ocker on the radio a few weeks ago about this 2nd base theory and was apalled by it.  He didn't get to 2nd base as much as Coco?!?  I'll contact Michael Lewis and see if he wants Sheldon to be the basis of Moneyball II.

When will any local paper print some logical thoughts on the Indians, without cowtowing to the ignorant majority, and their fickle emotions?

by The DiaTriber on Feb 12, 2006 10:18 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
And the answer is ... no.

Responding to this, and to ploni's nice comments above ... I think you would agree, DiaTriber, that as Indians bloggers we are simply serving a different audience than the newspapers.  A very different audience.

Our audience is diehard fans, but not only that, our audience is people who really want to read more stuff in-depth about the Indians, who really want to understand things more in-depth.

Is it possible that this posture becomes more the norm over time?  Yeah, I guess, but I'm not holding my breath.

For those who don't know, "The DiaTribe" (wish I'd thought of it first) is another great Indians blog worth checking out ... http://clevelandtribeblog.blogspot.com/

by Jay on Feb 12, 2006 10:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Thank god for intelligent blogs.  I heard a good recommendation recently for newspapers...fat chance they'd take it, but it sounded good.

They need to hire two people to cover the team.  One to describe the game, the scoring, who stole what base when, and add the usual pablum about "we have to put that one behind us and focus on the next game" and "we just take them one at a time."  You know, the stuff that Kevin Costner was teaching Tim Robbins in the back of the bus.

A second writer would do what Jay and Ryan do.  Write intelligently about the decisions, mistakes, the play, and step back and analyze the strategy behind it.  That second person doesn't have to interact with the team or the players at all.  Just watch the games and listen and write.  

Interaction with the players or management warps writers' reasoning.  If anyone has read Rob Neyer can attest, whenever he talks with management or officials, he loses his nerve.  These days he seems to pull his punches regarding the Kansas City Royals after he met GM Allard Baird.  Now he is playing nice with old time scouts after he met a bunch of them recently.

Maybe that is the function Terry Pluto serves for the Journal?

by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 13, 2006 12:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
I understand why beat writers pull punches; after all, they have to go interview the player the next day. But that doesn't excuse shoddy analysis.

Pluto writes about every team, and as far as I know talks to everybody a lot. Which is fine, because it allows him to talk about what wants to talk about.

by Ryan on Feb 13, 2006 1:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Yeh, I get it too. It's hard to be very candid in the paper when you have to deal with the players the next day in person.  No different than anybody's workplace.  Maybe Sheldon is just throwing a sop to the other players. "Hey, I'm on YOUR side...I love Coco too and shouldn't have traded him."  That way he can show his face in the clubhouse the next day among Coco's many friends.

Another good reason for a second writer who doesn't have to deal with that stuff every day.  Somebody needs to tell truth to power.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 13, 2006 3:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
When I lived in Houston, the Chronicle did something like this for the Astros, with Jose de Jesus Ortiz as the beat writer and Richard Justice as the analyst/insider.  Thought it worked out pretty well.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Feb 13, 2006 9:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
I second the kudos on that post. You're on a roll, man.

by Ryan on Feb 13, 2006 1:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Uh, thanks, but wasn't he talking about YOUR post?

by Jay on Feb 13, 2006 1:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Sorry, I was talking about the post on The DiaTribe. The way the replies look are a bit confusing.

by Ryan on Feb 13, 2006 1:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Really feel a need to share this one.  It's a paste from my old Tribe blog.  I apologize for the length.  

The Most Public Of My Many Humiliations

Posted By Joe Gartrell On 25th July 2004 @ 11:30 In Tribe Report | No Comments

I'm not my favorite Cleveland Indians writer. Sheldon Ocker of The Akron Beacon Journal is. Sometimes I write to Sheldon. A lot of people do. We write to Sheldon, he gives us the golden word, and sometimes he publishes our letters and his responses in the Sunday edition of The Journal. We write to Sheldon, say, on a Tuesday afternoon, when a Tribe question seeps out of our bones and rattles around in our skulls. We type up a letter, send it off, and then all week we worry that maybe we misspelled a word or fired off an embarrassing malapropism. We worry that Sheldon will think we're stupid, or, worse, that we don't know bunk about the Indians.

Finally, Sunday dawdles around. We fix coffee and are wearing sweatpants. Our hair is an unruly mess. We open the paper and see our name. We feel like Lou Merloni when the fans bellow, "Loouuuuu." But quickly, we realize, the fans aren't saying, "Lou." They're booing. Sheldon has disgraced us in the paper.

On a Sunday morning in April, Akron residents awoke to find me impaled, another Ocker victim, in their town square. To them, my skewered head must have been an unsettling sight. The look on the face seemingly frozen while shifting from elation to terror.

For you, reader, I have copied and pasted that horrific transaction with Ocker:

Mr. Ocker:

I've written in the past, suggesting sobriquets for Indians players (example: Jim Humble Assassin Thome, Juan El Conquistador Gonzales) and am assuming you'd like to know how central Ohio will be addressing our first baseman/ DH Travis Hafner. Hope you like it: Travis Half Empty.

Joe Gartrell
Columbus

Dear Joe:

First, your assumption is incorrect.

Second, I think you should tell Travis his new moniker face to face. Maybe he could come up with an appropriate name for you, like Joe "Black Eye, Broken Nose, Fractured Jaw'' Gartrell.

S.O.

by thetravishalffull on Feb 12, 2006 10:29 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
LOL!

"...we worry that maybe we misspelled a word or fired off an embarrassing malapropism. We worry that Sheldon will think we're stupid, or, worse, that we don't know bunk about the Indians."

Hell, I feel that way every time I hit Enter on this blog! <grin>

Lot's of bright people here, people who use acronyms I've never heard of.  The only thing I have they don't is that I remember Sam Dente playing SS for the Indians.

by LeftyCatcher on Feb 13, 2006 5:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
"Michaels doesn't run and doesn't amass many extra-base hits. In the past two years, he has gotten himself to second or beyond only 18 percent of the time he reaches base. Crisp, by contrast, has reached second or farther 34 percent of time, a substantial difference over a 550-at-bat season."

I think the key words here are "of the time he reaches base".  After all, what good is reaching second base more often, if you are on base less often?

- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Feb 13, 2006 12:57 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Good point! Sheldon, the denonimator is your friend...please get to know him.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 13, 2006 1:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Just wanted to share this with everyone, related to this thread.  I'm talking to one of my brothers on the phone today, and he mentions the letter to Sheldon.  And he says, "I was surprised to read it, because it seems like there are a lot of things you might write to Sheldon about, and why would you choose that?"

And I said, "Well, I can't write him about just anything.  I'm only going to write him about something I think he'll be interested in.  And I can only write him things that I think he can understand."

And my brother kind of cracked up at this point in the conversation, and I had to stop myself and sort of rewind my own comment and think about it a moment.  Did I really mean what I just said?  Can that really be right?

And it is right.  I am careful when writing local baseball writers (not just Sheldon) not to discuss things that they won't understand.  I won't talk to them about VORP or WARP or Win Shares or anything like that.  I might sneak in an OPS reference, but that's about it.  My assumption is that these writers don't know about that stuff, don't want to know about it ... and in fact will mock anyone who does know about it.  (Of course, they can obsess over stats 24/7, too.  HR, RBI, batting average.)

So that's what I wanted to share.  It isn't that Sheldon is writing is below the level of your favorite baseball bloggers.  It's worse than that.  His writing is below the level of OUR READERS.  I would write things in this blog -- to all of you -- that I would NEVER write to Sheldon, or Paul Hoynes, or certainly any of the crusty luddites here in Philly.

You can write to these guys.  But you have to use really small words.

by Jay on Feb 13, 2006 6:46 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Well said.  I've written to these guys too, and have always had that same approach (use small words, butter them up a bit, etc.).

One of the reasons that I started blogging and getting into the blogging community is because the depth and analysis of the local papers was so superficial and not very insightful (Terry Pluto being the obvious exception).

Thank goodness for this site, Rick's, and the CIR (when the granddaddy of 'em all posts) because it makes me feel a little better that there are other people in this world who sit in traffic and wonder if Jason Davis should add another pitch to become a starter or concentrate on 2 pitches and pitch out of the bullpen.

I've always thought that there must be other people like me, for whom the Indians falls somewhere between hobby and obsession (probably closer to obsession).

Just wanted to get that off my chest as an answer to my bride who asked me why exactly I blog and why I spend so much time wondering who the 4th outfielder will be.

Thanks for making my passion seem a little more normal.

by The DiaTriber on Feb 14, 2006 9:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Following up on Jay and Leftycatcher's comments, I'm a long-time Indians fan, starting from the 1950s, but I'm relatively new to this blog site, which I really enjoy.

However, like Leftycatcher (and perhaps Sheldon as Jay suggests) I don't know all the ancroyms, like VORP and WARP. So, since I am a life-time learner, where would I find definitions and statistics?

by kov on Feb 15, 2006 6:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
The sabermetrics definitions can be found here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php

Also, if you (and anyone else new to this school of thought) are interested in reading up on some of the basics of sabermetrics, go to BaseballProspectus.com and click the "About" tab. There's quite a few articles, but it's a very interesting read.

Kos

by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Feb 15, 2006 7:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Kov, thanks for asking.  Another user has also suggested that we set up a brief stats glossary page of our own, and we probably should get on that.  But I hope you and everyone else reading knows, I would never look down on someone who didn't already know about those things.  The important thing is that you WANT to know -- maybe not every last detail of the formulas, but at least the basics.  I don't remember anymore how they concoct VORP, but I've read about it detail a few times, enough to get a clear impression of what it's good for and what its limitations are.  So maybe we'll get to work on that ...

by Jay on Feb 15, 2006 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Yeah, I've always said I'd do that, but never got around to doing. Maybe some weekend afternoon when the Indians are on radio I'll try to put something together.

The issue people always have with statistics is that they think stats are trying to paint and entirely new picture. I say statistics are a way of enhancing baseball, to give you a clearer view of the game. Not to distort what happens on the field, but to clarify it.

by Ryan on Feb 15, 2006 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Baseball Between The Numbers (look out, it's the NERRRDS!) has a great chapter on player salary and team revenue called "Is Alex Rodriguez Overpaid?"  

The basis for many of the calculations ties into Brad's stock question - from 1998 to 2000 the Indians had to file financial disclosures with the SEC in conjunction with their stock offering.  

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Feb 14, 2006 12:38 AM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
For anyone who wants to peek inside the numbers of a baseball team, here are the SEC filings of the Tribe when made its financial disclosures.  I bring your attention to the 10K especially, because it is usually the most comprehensive.  The 8K does quarters.  That is the sum of my financial wherewithall, even after B-school. But if you want to understand an industry, find a company that is a pureplay (i.e., their primary business).  The 10K forces them to review everything, cost structure of the business, revenue streams, litigation, etc.  Don't think companies are being altruistic here...if they aren't forthcoming, the shareholders can sue them into oblivion.  Checks and balances are nice. Are there other publicly-owned teams?  Be cool to compare.

http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=Cleveland+Indians&CIK=&filenum=&State=&a mp;SIC=&owner=include&action=getcompany

by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 15, 2006 8:42 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
Oops, the 10Q is quarterly, thus the Q.  Was looking at some 8Ks recently, thus my confusion.

If I were the Plain Dealer, or the Akron Beacon Journal at the time, I'd have printed the whole kit and caboodle and put bubble comments by financial/sports business specialists/Terry Pluto all over it.  Would have made a fascinating read.  Sorry for the digression. You may go back to reading Sheldon now.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 15, 2006 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Sunday Roundup
One of the points Nate Silver (I think - I don't have the book with me) makes in Baseball Between The Numbers is that no other teams file 10Qs, either because they are closely held corporations, or are corporate subsidiaries of larger enterprises like the Tribune Company, Anheuser Busch, and the New York Times.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Feb 16, 2006 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

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