AL Central Projections

by SethSpeaks on Feb 4, 2006 10:37 PM EST Comment 27 comments

If you're looking for one more look at what players may or may not do in 2006 (for fantasy purposes, or just to see who is where), be sure to check out my 2006 Projections for the AL Central. (Even as a Twins fan, I have some very positive outlooks for several Indians hitters) It was Part 2 of my Fantasy Perspectives. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

You can find it by going to http://www.sethspeaks.net/012706.htm.

Thanks,

You can find it by going to http://www.sethspeaks.net/012706.htm.

Thanks,

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Re: AL Central Projections

I think you're being a little optimistic on Martinez and Peralta. Not totally out of the realm at all, but Martinez can be extremely streaky and his numbers are fairly dependent on batting average. which makes him hard to peg at all. It seems farfetched that Peralta can improve on last season -- then again, he did have a 910 OPS after May 6.

On the other side, your projections for Boone and Perez seem very pessimistic. You yourself wrote that Perez had an 897 OPS last season against lefties, and the Indians will use him almost exclusively in that role -- so pegging him at 716 seems silly.

As for Boone, you note his early struggles but seem unaware of how deep they really were. Through June 3 he had a 455 OPS -- yes 455 -- but after that date it was 777 over the last four months of the season. Keep in mind, he missed the entire 2004 season with that injury, even Spring Training. I believe he'll be close to the second number, simply because there's no reason to think otherwise. Bret fell of a cliff, but Aaron is four years younger.

by Jay on Feb 5, 2006 11:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Also, your projection for Sizemore looks pretty rosy. He's toolsy and has great instincts -- and he's a very young player who has been improving his skills at a breathtaking rate for the past three years. On the other hand, his walk rates were very weak, and to me, that makes him a significant risk to get beaten by opposing scouts in his second season. His walk rate improved in the second half but was still pretty mediocre. This contrasts with Peralta, who also started with a weak walk rate but had a very strong one in the second half.

by Jay on Feb 5, 2006 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Boone was bad last year, but I think he will be closer to his norm of 327OBP .436SLG .265AVG 20hr 70RBI which is not that bad for a 8th place hitter.

Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Feb 9, 2006 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

All valid points, but there are always guys who prove that not being a solid on-base guy doesn't always hurt too. Sizemore wasn't horrible, he's certainly not a typical leadoff guy. I just see big things for him. Of course, I could be wrong. I claim, in no way, to be perfect in these projections. In many cases, you expect a guy to stay about the same. In some cases, you expect regression or improvement. And, with some guys, you just think those increases or decreases will be bigger. I really like Sizemore. I really like Martinez. I really like Peralta. I like Hafner, and I"m not real high on Boone and think that Blake may end up closer to 2005 than 2004. We'll have to check back to it in July and September and see how I did.

by SethSpeaks on Feb 5, 2006 10:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Nomar Garciappara was never a good obp guy and neither was kirby pucket but one is a hall of famer and the other could have been if not for injuries so I am not sold on obp. To say some guy is good or bad based on obp is cheap and often very wrong. Lots of Oakland A's can get walks but when the pitcher makes good pitches they really can't do much with it. A player like Nomar and Kirby could beat you no matter what pitch you threw to him and in fact makes it harder on a pitcher to figure out what to throw you.

by tribeinne on Feb 5, 2006 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Nomar has an very good career OBP of 367 (for a shortstop) and was well over 400 for his best two seasons -- truly outstanding. That said, Nomar was the rare player who could be a great hitter without being particularly selective at the plate. But there are only a handful of such players ... Nomar, Ichiro, Gwynn, Wade Boggs. Very, very few players can be productive hitters over the long haul without being selective at the plate.

I sometimes refer to walk rate because it is POTENTIALLY -- not definitely -- an indicator of a poor approach at the plate. It sometimes means that a player is free swinger and eventually scouts will tell their pitchers how to make him get himself out. And if a player has a high batting average and poor walk rate, it makes it far more likely that the high batting average was largely a product of luck.

When a player goes to the plate, there are only two possible outcomes. Either the player makes an out, hurting his team's chance to score a run, or he gets on base, helping it. OBP is simply the measure of how often a player does the first thing compared to the second thing. It is the most important stat in baseball, in fact it's not even close.

It's what wins and loses every single game ... whether each batter gets on base or makes an out. If you aren't sold on OBP, then you have absolutely no understanding of how the game works. And that is no exaggeration. It's not the only important thing, but it is most definitely the most important thing.

by Jay on Feb 5, 2006 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Jay really I think I have played more baseball than you but that is besides the point. When you hit over .330 if your obp is between .370-.400 that is considered average to you. Just because his obp is high doesn't mean that he isn't a good walk guy. Also a great deal of Nomars walks came from pitchers pitching around him because he was such a great hitter. The thinking goes good hitter become good walk people but good walk people don't necassarly become good hitters. The hardest and biggest part of becoming a good hitter is being able to hit the ball than after that it is to develop plate discipline.

by tribeinne on Feb 5, 2006 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Billy Beane played more baseball than either one of us, but he didn't grasp the importance of discipline and OBP until after his career was over. Worse yet, none of his coaches ever explained it to him. Anyway, you're confusing walk rate and OBP. A good walk rate is not the only way to a good OBP, but it is the most sustainable, consistent way to it.

You're right in that there are a lot of ways to be a good hitter. It is also possible to have excellent pitch recognition but not a high walk rate -- very uncommon, but not unheard-of. Hitters with excellent pitch recognition are far, far more likely to sustain their high level of hitting, are far harder to pitch around based on scouting, and are far far FAR more likely to continue to succeed at higher and higher levels of competition.

by Jay on Feb 5, 2006 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

I've never understood how people can't see how OBP is, by far, the most important statistic in the game. It's just baffling to me. As a batter, there are two outcomes of each at bat: making an out or not making an out. Not making outs = a higher OBP. So the higher the OBP (regardless of how it's gained), the better. Yes, OBP is about hitting, but it's also about plate disclipine and a good approach. Hits are dependent upon the opposing defense not catching the ball. This is why batting averages fluctuate. But walk rates are usually pretty steady throughout a player's career because they rely solely on the batter.

I'm not sure where you heard this "good hitters become good walk people" line, but that's absolutely not true. If anything, guys like Nomar will walk less because their hitting skills diminish and pitchers don't have to be as selective when pitching to them. Good hitters get worse at hitting for average as their careers go on. Guys who walk a lot keep a steady walk rate throughout their careers. This is why guys like Adam Dunn are better bets than guys like Nomar to be productive in their late 30's.

Kos

by Kos on Feb 6, 2006 12:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

I struggle with this concept all the time in my head. As a Twins fan, I was a huge Puckett fan. I loved that he was a hacker.

When I was going to colleges trying to figure out where I wanted to play, I was deciding between two places really. I went to the one and noticed that every batter in their lineup took two strikes. I went to the other place and saw a couple of hitter's swing out of their shoes on 3-0. Guess where I went!

I agree that a person has to be able to hit first. Otherwise what reason is there for a pitcher to not throw him strikes. That said, I am more impressed by a guy like Jason Bartlett who hit just .241 in brief time with the Twins last year, but his Isolated Discipline was over .070.

I also look at Jacque Jones. He hit .300 two years in a row. In those years, his Isolated Discipline was between .035 and .041. The last two years, he has had Isolated Disciplines between .063 and .071, and he has hit .254 and .249. Was he a better hitter when he went up and just hacked? His OBP was higher, but primarily because of his batting average.

I honestly think that a team can be very successful with a combination of both. I think that your first two hitters need high OBP (.365 or more). You want your 3rd hitter to have a high OBP but also to have the SLG%. I think that #4 and #5 can get away with a little lower OBP as long as they are providing SLG% and knocking in runs, however they do it.

That got long, sorry! But yeah, it's a fun debate. I just get tired of Billy Beane always being the hero to everyone. (and I loved Moneyball)

by SethSpeaks on Feb 6, 2006 1:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

I don't think Beane is right about everything, but there are only two decent candidates for best GM of the past 15 years, Beane and Scheurholz. There are other smart and/or successful GMs, but nobody's accomplished as much as Scheurholz, and nobody's done more with less than Beane -- ever. And in many ways, 2005 was his crowning achievement, even though they missed the playoffs.

by Jay on Feb 6, 2006 2:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Very good argument Seth you clearly understand the difference between being a good hitter and not being a good hitter. I think pitch selection (for a batter that is ) is more important than a walk rate. As a hitter I felt that if I was comfortable with a pitch no matter where the location was than I should swing. So guys can hit low pitches others high ones. Walk rate is important but the most important part is for the hitter to know what pitches and locations he can handle. Your example on Jacque Jones is a very good one. Was it simply a matter of pitchers pitching him better in zones he doesn't hit well therefore his average dipped but his isolated plate discipline went up or was it something else. To some degree I feel that batting average are not a true measure of a hitter but then how do you explain guys like tony gywen who consistently hit over .300 was he just that lucky or was he that good. Ted Williams was one the best hitter ever to play the game but he didn't hit to all fields like most hitters are taught now. What works for one hitter does not for another. My point being that when you look for at hitter you can't judge them on average or obp but on production meaning rbis/chance, clutch hitting and batting personality.

by tribeinne on Feb 6, 2006 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Scott Boras loves to say that slugging is more important than OBP, because the sluggers get the walks. Or something like that. Of course, I think he was pimping Adrian Beltre at the time, and Beltre is pretty much the poster child for sweating a player's walk rate. The reverse example, I guess, might be Jim Thome in 2000, four straight years of declining numbers, but he still had the walk rate.

by Jay on Feb 6, 2006 2:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

The best hitting team in cleveland history the team averaged.
.291AVG .360OBP .479SLG

Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Feb 9, 2006 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

You think 1995 hit better than 1999 -- .289/.372/.467 and 1009 runs? 6.23 runs/game in 1999, 5.83 in 1995.

1995 team had a walk rate of .0953 ... which for an entire team is totally ridiculous. The 1999 team was .114, which might well be the record.

by Jay on Feb 9, 2006 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

I was in Spain in 1999, so I alway forget about them, but anyways my point is OBP.

Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Feb 9, 2006 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

No one has mentioned that he predicts Michaels to have a better year than Crisp.

by oxforddave on Feb 5, 2006 11:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

The Belliard numbers are definitely pessimistic. It would be his lowest OPS in his seven seasons, except for his horrible half-year in Milwaukee in 2002. On the other hand, he did only put up a .760 in Colorado in 2003, which has probably influenced your model.

And yeah, I'll admit it, I'm scared of Thome. Of course he is likely to fall apart, but if not, I have to disagree with Jay. He will probably be a substantial upgrade over the Everett/Thomas combo of 2005. I think your projection for him is realistic.

by dgcambridge on Feb 6, 2006 8:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

PECOTA (which I had not looked up earlier) has him for 341 plate appearances and an 891 OPS, 18 home runs and 14 2B/3B. Of course, that is the "weighted mean" projection, but the maddening thing is that Thome's projection range presumably is all over the map. 39 percent collapse rate ... hard to root for that, given that if he makes the HOF, it's in an Indians cap ...

by Jay on Feb 6, 2006 10:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Yeah, absolutely. I remember seeing Thome in a Canton-Akron game back in the early 90s. Obviously you can't blame the guy for leaving, either. A 891 OPS would be just about right. But a year like 2005 would help a lot.

These next three years for both Thome and Ramirez are exactly why those contracts were so crazy.

by dgcambridge on Feb 7, 2006 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

I'd like to blame him for not agreeing to be traded in 2002. He convinced himself he was an Indian for life during the season, then convinced himself he needed to leave afterward. I understand the mindset, but it still sucks.

by Jay on Feb 7, 2006 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Ownership changed Thome's mind nothing less nothing more. When your a free agent you look at a couple big things.

How much money are you going to get
Is the club I want to sign with or the club that offered the most money going to try to field a competive team every year

No established player wants to play on a rebuilding team.
3. Location, Location, Location
how far is it from my home
This offseason the tribe brass lost out on atleast two of the three to every free agent they went after

Nomar Indians offered more money but he wasn't sure they we still going to be competive after this year and Ohio was very far from his California home. I am sure his wife had a huge influence on that.

Millwood
Ok the indians didn't try to resign him and they shouldn't have. Good pitcher history of injuries not a good risk. One year risk ok multi year not so good

Brian Giles
Loves playing in California, Money was pretty much the same and same issues with the indians as nomar.

Trevor Hoffman
Has always played for the podes so they indians would have had to offer the moon and more to get him. Maybe this was a media ploy to make fans think they were trying to sign another high profile guy.

After missing out on these potential upgrades Shapiro wasn't sure what to do so he though he found away to improve the team for the years ahead and thats how we ended up with the Coco Crisp trade.

Imagin this lineup
Sizemore(cf),Crisp(lf)J.Perlata(ss),Haftner(Dh),
N.Garciaparra(1b),B.Giles(rf),V.Martinez(c),
R.Belliard(2b),A.Boone/C.Blake(3rd)

That would have been impressive!

by tribeinne on Feb 7, 2006 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Keep dreaming, there is no way we spend the money for Nomar, Giles, AND Hoffman. We were trying to spend a good chunk of $$ (8 mil or so) to fill up one spot. If we got Giles we would not have bid on Nomar or Hoffman. If we got Hoffman, we wouldn't have pursued Nomar, etc.

And this delusional thinking that Hoffman was a media ploy is just plain false. Hoffman has stated he really liked the offer and would have done it but he wanted to stay at home. I can't fault him for that. Shapiro gave him a take it or leave it offer because if he left it, we had to sign Wickman before we had to offer arbitration. Otherwise we would couldn't have signed Wickman until May 1. And that would have been the end of our bullpen, even moreso than your complaints of losing Howry, Rhodes, and Riske. We would have started the season with no closer (okay maybe Cabrera), and that would have hurt.

Let's try to keep the conspiracy theories relegated to the NFL and NBA ....

by talonk on Feb 7, 2006 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

I agree that if we get Giles, we don't pursue Nomar. But I think we would have pursued Hoffman regardless of the other two. I would add, we wouldn't have offered Nomar anything if we thought he couldn't play the outfield. How much is his production worth as a 1B? Put him in RF or LF, and then you can platoon Blake/Broussard and you don't really need Perez.

by Jay on Feb 7, 2006 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

Total payroll is not the same thing as competitiveness. I think players and agents actually understand this, a little better every year.

That said, I think your three key factors are pretty well on-target. However, that information didn't change between July 2002 and December 2002, and Thome's mind did change.

by Jay on Feb 7, 2006 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

It's hard to recall back that far but I think in 2002 it was very clear that Cleveland couldn't compete until now. And Philly was seen as a rising star. If I were Thome -- HOF caliber player, established post-season performer -- I would have left even if the money was the same. And the money wasn't even close.

Given this, it is really hard for me to understand Tribeinne's point of view. How could "ownership" change Thome's mind regarding competitiveness?

Cleveland had played out its string. It was a very very very good string. No one on this blog would give up the John Hart years. Personally, I have never had more fun as a sports fan. But sports teams fade and have to be rebuilt. This happens even to big-market teams with huge competitive advantages like the Yankees, the Bulls, the Lakers, etc. How does this have anything to do with "ownership"?

Thome left because Cleveland couldn't compete for the next 2-3 years. Most people would have done the same thing.

by nilla on Feb 8, 2006 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: AL Central Projections

I agree with that. All I was saying is that the need to rebuild was announced loudly on June 30, or whenever it was that the Colon deal went down. We had a whole month to trade Thome to a contender, and Shapiro had already announced that he didn't expect us to contend until 2005 and 2006. Yet Thome killed any potential deals by declaring that he wanted to finish the year in Cleveland and hopefully spend his whole career there.

So he "decided" that in July, and nothing changed over the next four months, yet he showed basically tepid interest in staying with the Indians. Yes, the Phillies offered him more money and competitiveness -- which anybody could have told you was going to happen back in July. The Indians offered him $60 million -- enough to feed his great-grandkids one assumes -- and told him that they expected to put his statue next to Bob Feller's (or something equivalent) when he retired as an Indian with 500-ish home runs. Given his statements in July -- when he already knew the competitive situation -- one would think that would have been enough.

Thome also went to the Cubs and basically begged them for a deal. They passed, not wanting to block Heop See Choi -- whom they traded a year later for Derrek Lee. In any event, the Indians probably will retire his jersey someday, but there sure as hell won't be any statue -- which, on-field decisions aside, is actually a sad thing for the Indians franchise. Instead, Thome can look forward to steady stream of Sabathia, Lee, Sauerbeck and Sowers for the next couple of years.

by Jay on Feb 8, 2006 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs