FanPost

Lineups

I'm surprised no one else has posted on this, but BaseballMusings has a lineup analysis tool based on some work by Cyril Morong and Ken Arneson.  Here is a link to the tool:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

Here is a link with some analysis of the analyzer:

http://educatedsports.blogspot.com/2006/03/lineup-analysis-again.html

I plugged in the Indians lineup used on the last day of the season and used the end of year stats:

Sizemore
Crisp
Peralta
Hafner
Martinez
Belliard
Broussard
Boone
Blake

The tool says this lineup would score 5.490 runs per game (or 889 runs per season, ceteris paribus).  The Tribe actually scored 790 runs last season, but of course didn't use this lineup in every game.  

The "optimal" lineup would be:

Martinez
Hafner
Crisp
Peralta
Sizemore
Blake
Belliard
Broussard
Boone

This lineup is supposed to score 5.595 runs a game  (or 906 runs a year).

The worst lineup is:

Broussard
Boone
Crisp
Blake
Belliard
Sizemore
Peralta
Martinez
Hafner

Which still manages to score 5.287 runs a game (856 runs a season).

If the tool is right, then it appears the Indians could pick up about 17 runs a year changing their lineup.  

I'll let others comment on the empirical adequacy of the tool, but one interesting aspect of the discussion has been that the third position in the lineup ought not go to one of the best hitters.  But many people cited the move of Peralta up in the order as a jump start for the offense last year.  The tool suggests he might be better placed elsewhere.
 

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