Garko vs. Shealy
First I want to say that I've been a regular LGT reader for several months, but this is my first ever post. Hi everyone....hello....hi....hi....thanks, great to be here...
Now, my question is about Garko and how he compares to Colorado 1B prospect Ryan Shealy, who has been mostly blocked by one Todd Helton. Actually from what I have read he has been major-league-ready for a while, and Colorado probably should have traded/moved him long ago if they planned to keep Helton.
Anyhow, I am pretty new to the whole science of evaluation of minor leaguers. How does Garko compare to Shealy? Which one is the better prospect? Would it be worthwhile for the Tribe to try to get Shealy, and if so, how much would he cost us?
5 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Re: Garko vs. Shealy
It's not a bad comparison, college hitters who have had success at each level, but were never really young for the level. What does that suggest to me? That they can be productive major league hitters, but probably not superstars.
Both can take a walk, and project somewhat for average and power, but here are the differences:
- Shealy has more raw power for sure. Garko has a more successful track record for BA.
- I think both can be average 1b (at least I hope so, in Garko's case), but Garko also has the ability to catch on occasion. Big plus. On the other hand, Shealy is being tried in the OF. I have no idea how that is going, but Garko won't be in the OF. (Shealy is slow, but Garko is SLOW).
- Shealy had some ML success last year, but he is a year and a half older.
- Both will walk, but strikeouts are interesting. Until last year, Garko has had impressive K/BB ratios, while Shealy has had more typical slugger K numbers. But Shealy's K's didn't skyrocket during his ML time last year. Garko puts a few more balls in play.
So to answer you: If Shealy is on the block, I don't think the Indians should give up the talent it would take to get him when they have Garko.
Sure, IF he can play a decent RF, he would be a fine fit, but then the Rockies would probably keep him.
Re: Garko vs. Shealy
Re: Garko vs. Shealy
Good question. For a bit of added complexity, why don't we throw Mulhern into the mix? (If two Ryans is good, then three is more betterer) I'm going to throw in some park/competition normalized stats, as Col Springs is a pretty hitter friendly park.
Non-statistically, Mulhern and Garko (11/80 and 1/81, respectively) are more than a year younger than Shealy (8/79), and that's way important. Defensively, they are all 1B right now. There's not a big difference between them from what I can tell (assuming Garko will be fine with a bit more seasoning). Garko has the third string catcher thing going for him, which is nice, but not ultimately important either.
In thier age 24 seasons, this is what happened.
LVL AB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS EQOBP EQSLG EQA
Garko AAA 452 44 92 .303 .384 .498 .882 .354 .457 .277
Mulhern A/AA 403 47 114 .315 .390 .640 .1030 .331 .514 .282
Shealy AA 469 61 123 .328 .393 .601 .994 .355 .500 .288
Shealy has had a good season on top of this one, at AAA hitting an unadjusted .328/.393/.601 at 25. Good for him. (Note: his plate discipline dropped off to about 10% of ABs) But Garko and Mulhern have a year on him, so who knows what they would/will do in thier 25th year.
I think consensus scout and analyst has thier rankings like as Garko>Shealy>Mulhern. Shealy has more power than Garko, but he and Mulhern look pretty even. Shealy and Garko have the track records, Mulhern does not, which is why he's the last of the three for now. Garko has the age, the track record, and the catcher/athletic(er) thing, which is why he's the best prospect right now.
But to be honest, I can't tell you that I'd trade Mulhern for Shealy. Mulhern not only had a breakout year, but raked consistently all year, and actually improved his EQA after his promotion to AA. I'm also guessing that Mulhern will take to the OF better than Shealy, but I can't back that up too much.
Thanks for killing my last hour at work, btw.
Re: Garko vs. Shealy
Using the age/level criteria, I'd agree with you that Garko looks better, just based on the fact he was at AAA while at the same age Shealy was only in AA. I guess I can quit trying to imagine Shealy trade scenarios in my head with a clear conscience.
Re: Garko vs. Shealy
by Jay on Mar 9, 2006 9:05 PM EST up reply actions

by 










