The Untouchable
by kov on Apr 18, 2006 8:45 AM EDT
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PrintBaseball America's daily report today called Joe Ness at Kinston "The Untouchable."
Ness did not make BA's top 25 for the Tribe, so I'm wondering if Ness is as good as the untouchable label would indicate (of course, I hope he is).
Cleveland has a nice list of starter prospects (Sowers, Miller, Sipp, Carmona, Lofgren, Smith, Pesco, Perez). It would be nice if Ness can rise up to join that group.
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Re: The Untouchable
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He's only 22 and stands 6'5' weighing 225.
Let's just hope when he goes from AA to AAA, he doesn't get Guthritis (a new technical term :-)
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It looks like it's taken him just four seasons to figure out AAA.
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So technically, having great numbers in AA can be an early indicator (not only a common symptom, but actually a requirement) of potential Guthritis, a rare disease that is not known to be contagious :-)
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Guthrie Akron: 1.44 ERA, 2.50 K/BB, 5.03 K/9
Guthrie Buffalo: 6.52 ERA, 2.O7 K/BB, 5.77 K/9
Joe Ness Kinston: 2.70 ERA, 5.00 K/BB, 13.50 K/9
So if weak K/BB numbers are part of the definition of Guthritis, then Ness doesn't have it.
And if strong K/BB numbers are part of the definition, then Guthrie didn't have it.
See what I mean?
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Also, I'm saying that Guthrie had one of the most dramatic declines from AA to AAA I've ever seen (so I was trying to be funny by calling it Guthritis). But, we all know that a many players have some level of difficulty advancing through the levels. Otherwise, every short-season level-A MVP would become a ML MVP.
Success at one level does not guarantee success at the next level (aren't investment firms required to say something like that?).
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HOWEVER.
Guthrie had weak K and BB numbers BEFORE he was promoted. The ERA shot up, the K and BB numbers more or less stayed the same.
Ness -- who has never appeared in Akron by the way -- has K and BB numbers that are 2-3 times better than Guthrie's have ever been, at any level.
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by dgcambridge on Apr 19, 2006 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
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7IP, 2ER, 5K, 1 BB,
18IP, 2ER, 12K, 5BB on the season.
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As you stated, Guthrie went from a 1.44 ERA in AA to a 6.52 ERA in AAA - that's an whopping increase of 5.08.
Ness is currently sitting on an ERA of 2.70 in AA - good, but not a outstanding as Guthrie's was. If Ness gets Guthritis when he goes up to AAA, his ERA would increase by 5.08, up to 7.78.
That's the kind of fall off that I hope does not happen.
I didn't mean for this to be quite as statistically based as it has become. I'm just hoping that none of our players' performance drops as dramatically as Guthrie's did by moving up one level (including Marte, Sowers, Garko & Gutierrez).
You have correctly pointed out in the past that minor league players are only prospects. How they perform at one level is a clue as to how they will perform at the next level, but certainly not a guarantee.
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Guthritis = collapse in ERA after being promoted
Nothing to do with K and BB.
So I was just trying to say, I don't think Ness will turn out to have Guthritis if he can keep up a 15:3 K:BB ratio.
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There's a pretty good argument that based on his peripherals, Guthrie could not have maintained those dominant "end results" (ERA) even had he stayed in Akron. Certainly when he was later demoted back to Akron he didn't dominate in the least.
That may have been because he confidence was shattered, he was overthinking, whatever. Or it may have been that he was essentially the same pitcher with the same peripherals, and vastly different luck.
The most reasonable answer to that question is to say, "it was both." In extreme statistical examples, it's almost always the case that multiple factors are at work to produce the extreme result.
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We're going to run out of things to argue about at this rate.
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by Slovenc0417 @ Let's Go Tribe! on Apr 19, 2006 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
As Jay mentioned, Ness is only at High-A!
You and Jay both make interesting points. However, as Jay already pointed out, realize that the numbers you quote for Ness (like the 2.70 ERA) are at High-A Kinston, NOT AA Akron.
Even if his ERA isn't as low as Guthrie's AA ERA was, I still like the higher number of K/9 IP as I think that will give Ness a great chance to succeed at Akron when he gets there (maybe later this year.) I'm excited by both him and Jensen Lewis (and Scott Lewis as well if he is healthy and can stay healthy.) Right now, Ness looks to have a legitimate chance of being a frontline starter if he can keep up this performance.
I don't know how hard he throws, but I suspect he's at least in the low-90s. Anybody have a scouting report on what he throws and what velocities he reaches? I'd greatly appreciate it - thanks!
Take care and have a great day!
Re: As Jay mentioned, Ness is only at High-A!
"Ness, a 6-foot-5 righthander, had no problem pitching in the 90s in the Great Lakes but has worked a 85-88 mph this year. While his changeup is effective, he hasn't shown aptitude for throwing a curveball or slider."
Sounds like what he was: a 6th round pick.
I believe he's throwing harder than that now!
Granted, AA is usually the "real test" to see if a prospect is really a contender or a pretender, but it seems sort of odd if he's only throwing 85-88 MPH and doing as well as he is, even at High-A.
This is just a guess on my part, but probably he has regained some of his past velocity and is hitting the low-90s again. I can't see where he is only hitting 85-88 and having those dominating numbers, unless virtually every High-A hitter is a non-prospect, which isn't the case because Kinston just finished playing Wilmington, the Red Sox's High-A affiliate, and they have several legitimate position-player prospects (and college draftees at that) like Jed Lowrie, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jeff Corsaletti.
I can't believe he can get guys out of that caliber with only mid-80s velocity. Even though his command has been good, I'd still think he's throwing harder than that.
AA would give us a better read I believe, but I have to believe he's throwing 90+ now. Perhaps he was tired when that BA scouting report was taken last year - was it taken towards the end of the college season?
Just my 2 cents. :-)
He could be getting by on mid-80s "heat," but I have a feeling he's probably throwing in the low-90s now. Just a guess on my part.
Take care and have a great day!
Re: I believe he's throwing harder than that now!
I appreciate the report! :-)
Thanks for providing the report - it's not your fault that the report is outdated - it still gave me an idea of what Ness throws. I still appreciate it. :-)
Take care and have a great day!
Re: The Untouchable
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