My thesis here is that Wedge's style makes his players likely to press and choke in key situations/games. Consider how the indians and white sox have outperformed their respective runs scored/runs against ratio since 2002. The data are in actual wins above expected wins determined from the run ratio.
Year Tribe white sox
2002 2.7 -5.6
2003 -3.8 -2.8
2004 -1.1 -1.2
2005 -3.4 7.6
2006 -3.4 2.1
Guillen took over in 2004, Wedge in 2003. Since then the tribe has consistently underperformed and the white sox have consistently overperformed (after underperformance under Jerry Manuel). This is through good pitching and bad, good offenses and bad. This does not even take into account the team runs underperforming their base stats (for the tribe at least, the white sox are the other way), another form of choking.
Is there something to this? Is it the managers, or a function of the experience of the players, or just plain luck? This cost the tribe a playoff spot last year, will it again this year? I'm concerned.