FanPost

Win Probability

Found a fascinating site on players "win probability" this year. I think the basic concept is that at any point of a game your team (the indians) has an equity or probability of winning the game. The equity changes after every at bat and the positive or negative changes that take place are ascribed to the pitcher, the hitter, and the fielders (though I'm not sure how this division takes place). For example, if a player hits a home run with his team up 10-0 in the ninth, he only helps his team's chance of winning the game a miniscule amount (it was almost 100% to begin with), while if the same player hits a 2-run homer in the bottom of the ninth with 2 outs so his team wins by 1 run, that is an enormous equity change (from large chance of defeat, to a certain win). These are added for all of a players plate appearances.

Anyway, the site can be found here - http://fangraphs.com/ and the tribe's numbers here - http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Indians

Not surprisingly, Martinez, Broussard, and Hafner have meant the most to the team for hitting equity (this is in the WPA column, values are in percentages and every 100% equals 1 win). But there are surprises. Namely Michaels (.600 OPS) has produced positive equity and Sizemore (.800 OPS) has produced negative equity (this is mainly for hitting, who knows if defense is adequately represented). The worst hitters have been Boone and Hollandsworth (he has hit into some DPs at the wrong time and made important outs).

For pitchers the worse starting pitcher has been Byrd (if your team scores 9 runs and you lose, it is all the pitchers fault), and the worse reliever has been Davis (his stats are OK compared to other relievers but that loss to Texas was basically all on him). Wickman is the only major positive pitcher. Graves(!) has been the second best reliever behind Wickman and the only other positive one.

Anyway, interesting stuff, and something to watch throughout the year.
 

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