FanPost

Victor's Arm, in context

The article that Ryan cites in today's gamelog says that baserunners have been successful in 55 of 60 attempts against Martinez.  According to Michael Wolverton's formula for stolen base runs prevented:

SBRP = 0.49*(CPO+CS)-0.16*SB,

Victor is 6.35 runs below average (unless I'm missing some information about catcher pick-offs (CPO)).  Now, that's a lot, but we can try to put it in context.

According to BP's formula, Victor, based on offense alone, is 17.4 runs above a replacement catcher.  That puts him 5th in all of baseball.

Subtracting those 6+ runs puts him around 11 runs above replacement, which is roughly 13th among catchers, or in Jojima Land.

Now, obviously this is a rough stat to start with, and most importantly, if we really want to rank catchers like this I need to add/subtract SB runs for everybody.  I don't have the time right now.

In 2003 the range for SBRP went from +8.9 runs (Bengie Molina) to -4.9 runs (Mike Lieberthal).  In 2002 it went from 9.2 (Molina) to -10.3 (Piazza, the run away noodle arm winner.  The next closest wast -3.9).

What does Victor's 55-5 suggest?  It's a ratio that will almost certainly put him at the bottom of this year's list, but you didn't need Wolverton's formula to tell you that.  Also, it's a good approximation to say that it takes Victor from being a top ML catcher to an average one.

This still supports Ryan's point, because
A) Shoppach probably won't be an average ML starting catcher, though it's not impossible.

and

B) Victor's SB-CS numbers have never been great, but they haven't been this bad.  Hopefully its a fluke, or a correctable flaw.  In the article, he seems confident that he can fix it.  I am too.

Of course, if he can play a decent 2b...

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Let's Go Tribe

You must be a member of Let's Go Tribe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Let's Go Tribe. You should read them.

Join Let's Go Tribe

You must be a member of Let's Go Tribe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Let's Go Tribe. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker