a few thoughts

sounds like your brothers know what they are talking about.

Also, I think your fourth point is very true, Let him start a game or two, slow down on Sowers, Get Guthrie a start (or even Carmona, maybe that will allow him to clear his head and not take it as a demotion from being a closer).

Hello fwembt,

Good points made by you and your brothers! :-)

I agree with you and hans about Sowers; I'd either have Guthrie or Carmona share the spot with Sowers or shut down Sowers in a few more weeks and have either Guthrie or Carmona take over the fifth spot for the rest of the year (personally, I'd rather see if Carmona can become a dominant starter by pitching every fifth day, as I feel that he could have the best stuff, outside of C.C., in the starting rotation if he's given the chance.)  

I also agree about Adam Miller; I just hope that relieving hasn't ruined Carmona's future, since I feel he could have the best stuff in the starting rotation, outside of C.C.

Thinking about it, I think this FO puts too much value on Lee/Westbrook/Byrd in their ability to be above-average to great pitchers.  Don't get me wrong - they're solid pitchers when they're on, but they're not even #2 pitchers, and yet, Carmona, with his increased velocity and consistent command, probably could be a very good #3 pitcher or even a solid #2 pitcher if given the chance, yet the Indians would rather use him as a reliever and a closer when we have at least three other legitimate candidates for the closer's role - Davis, Cabrera, Betancourt - not to mention two more prospects who could also be future closers - Brown and Mujica - all of whom have far more relief experience than Carmona.

I worry that the Indians' FO will stick with Lee/Westbrook/Byrd in their rotation until Adam Miller is ready when I think Carmona could be an upgrade for that rotation now, and based on how Detroit and Minnesota's rotations have improved and probably will improve over the next year or two, our rotation also needs to be improved sooner rather than later and sticking with Lee/Byrd/Westbrook is not the answer in my opinion.  One of them, Lee being my choice, should be traded to make room for Carmona, since he is most accustomed to starting and could flourish more in that role than he has as the closer.  Carmona would also be cheaper than Lee, since he is arbitration-eligible after this year, and the trade of Lee could also provide us with some more pieces we could use as well.  

I may have to disagree with you Rick. Carmona throws 95-97 on any given night and has a running fastball and a good slider to back up his 4 seamer. He and Jake Westbrook share very little in common. Westbrook is a sinker-ball pitcher who relies on the groundout and our horrid defense. Carmona, with his newfound velocity and hard slider, probably compares more closely to Sabathia than anyone. My point in mentioning Davis was that he was groomed as a starter all the way through the minors (as were all the pitchers I listed) and then thrown into the bullpen when he was brought up. That is a big adjustment for any pitcher, let alone a rookie, to make. Does his stuff suit him better for the bullpen? Quite possibly, but if that is the case then get him ready for that in the bullpen in Buffalo, like they did this read. As an added note: when Davis originally arrived on the scene he had a sinker and a 2 seamer that he relied on, as well as a mediocre changeup. It wasn't until the yo-yoing in and out of the pen that he became so reliant on the fastball.

Hello fwembt,

I agree with you.

If I remember correctly, I think Carmona has a decent to good changeup as well, so no, Carmona has decent to good secondary stuff - that's partly why he did so well in the Minors even though he didn't have a high strikeout rate or blow hitters away with mid-90s velocity like he can do now.

Plus, Westbrook was never considered a closer candidate; obviously, Carmona has a considerably higher ceiling than Westbrook ever did, and like you said, I think he would be #2 in that rotation only to Sabathia if given a proper chance to do so.  When you have so many other closer candidates in the bullpen already, why turn to the one who can be an above-average starter for this team, which is something they can really use to shorten the gap between their rotation and Detroit and Minnesota's?

I think argument being made here is not that our starters aren't good, they, as kwoog pointed out, are. However there is not one of them that is certifiably dominant and it is entirely possible that with our bullpen and defense,and the strength of our division, that "good" is not enough. Last year the starters were even better and the bullpen was solid to say the least... and we still missed the playoffs. This team may end up needing dominant pitching to make it anywhere.

Hello everyone,

exileincincy and fwembt - exactly my point!

It's not that LWB (my acronym for those three) are bad, but the division is no longer loaded with mediocre pitching.  Those three pitching 60% of your games is not likely going to result in enough wins for us to make the postseason if we have to face Detroit and Minnesota's more dominant starting pitchers in 40-60% of the games that we face them, no matter where our offense is ranked because we can only score a few runs off of them at most in the majority of their starts.  LWB seem to give up 3-4 runs a start, sometimes more, most of the time.  When you compare all the stats, that likely is going to result in more losses than wins for us.  That might partly explain why we have not done well in our own division the last few years because the starting pitching in our division has gotten much better, and until we can do better in our division, we are not going to return to the playoffs.

Like I said before, everything starts from a good pitching performance - the more dominant a starter can be, the better.  I think Carmona could outdo the LWB trio if given the chance to do so.

bad defense.

Hello hans,

You make good points and I hope the defense and bullpen are improved as well, but while the bad defense has not helped LWB, you can't attribute their mediocre performances entirely on the bad defense, especially Westbrook's BAA with RISP - it's something like .370 or so.  That can't all be because of the defense; he just has not done well with RISP.

Besides that, both Lee and Westbrook have had problems with big innings this year, and again, it's not all due to the bad defense.  I still think Carmona could do better than those three, and I think part of the reason is what you say in your post; a more dominant pitcher like C.C. (and possibly Carmona) don't have to rely on their defense (especially the IF defense) as much to get outs.  

Now, you'd still want to improve that defense because you'll likely still have 2/3 of the LWB, plus Sowers needs a good defense behind him, so I agree with you that the defense must be improved, but I still feel Carmona could be a significant in-house upgrade over LWB.  Like you, I also would deal one of the LWBs (probably Lee,) and based on what I have seen of Guthrie at AAA and the MLs, I wouldn't mind including him to boost the value of the package, since I'm not sure he will ever consistently be better than LWB if he's inserted into the rotation.