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sign lee, win world series

by brad on Sep 2, 2006 11:25 AM EDT Comment 26 comments

Carlos Lee, that is. Vernon Wells would be nice here but we'd need to give up a lot. Apparently Lee wants 5 years says Hammy after he turned down 4 from milwaukee, and probably 12-15 per. I say give it to him. Just this morning Dolan promised a "significant" increase in payroll. I think if you just gave every bit of your free agency cashmoney to him, the team would be set.
Do it, and you have to be (or at least I am) loving the lineup of

Sizemore CF
Choo/Michaels RF
Hafner DH
Lee LF
Martinez C
Garko/Kouz 1B
Marte/Kouz 3B
Peralta SS
Inglett 2B

power protection for pronk instead of let's walk hafner so we can double up v-mart or at least hold him to a long single. you can do this and still keep the payroll from being astronomical, since you're paying minimum wage total of about 1 million at 1st 2nd and 3rd instead of the approx 10 mil broussard, boone, belliard, and perez made to man those positions this year.

The bullpen I believe is fine, because the young guys are getting some innings up here and because it can't possible be as bad as this year. Of course it haunted us through most of the season but now with Mastny at the anchor it has stabalized. No Graves, no Saurbeck, no Mota, no Jason Johnson making us stretch the pen.
but a pen of

Mastny
Brown
Betancourt
Cabrera
Perez
Mujica
Sikorski/Miller/JD/fill in the blank

doesn't make me too uncomfortable.

0 recs | Comment 26 comments

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Comments

Re: sign lee, win world series

Why? He's one of the most overrated hitters in baseball. Hell, even if he was as good as the media makes him out to be, he still wouldn't be worth four years and $60M.

by Kos on Sep 2, 2006 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

I don't think Lee's really all that great (at least not $15 million per great). This is a guy with a career .833 or so OPS -- nice, but not exactly setting the world on fire. I mean, Casey Blake & Carlos Lee have an almost identical OPS right now, with Casey's being more OBP-heavy than Lee's. And do you really think that the 30 year old Lee is going to look all that great in years 4 & 5 of that contract?

Anyway, it's not like our hitting has really been that much of a problem this year, and I don't think Carlos Lee is going to post a sub-4.00 ERA any time soon.

by zempf on Sep 2, 2006 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Why would one of the majors top offensive teams spend 12-15 mill to improve their offense? What would Lee bring to the table that the 2nd ranked slugging team, 3rd ranked scoring team already doesnt have? From 1 to 9 in the order there are 8 hitters 30 years of age or younger (for the 2007 season). Traditionally a hitters peak years are in their 28-32 years. That said, how much better can this team get offensively, I think the natural progression of these hitters will be MORE then enough!

So you have to ask yourself...Is Lee a solid defender? Well he's average at a position that doesn't expect much (LF). Does Lee has ve outstanding speed and could help this team play some "small ball" games that the Tigers/ChiSox play? Not really, although he does have 20 steal potential.

So exactly WHAT does Lee bring to the table that the team needs? In my opinion...Nothing. I won't argue the team could use an upgrade in the rotation (the #2 spot specifically) and in the bullpen. But hitting...NO WAY!

by Brandini on Sep 2, 2006 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Forget Lee, that money ought to go towards extending Hafner.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Sep 2, 2006 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed!

Hello drerikbrady,

I wholeheartedly agree with your post! :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Sep 2, 2006 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Agreed!

I alluded to this in the Ray Durham diary as well... the free agent market just sucks this year. We should we thinking about trades, not about overpaying for spotty free agents.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Sep 4, 2006 7:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Hey, if we were the Yankees and could just throw money around this would be a great idea. Unfortunately we have to budget and rumor has it that Lee is not interested in being a pitcher/outfielder.

Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by fwembt on Sep 2, 2006 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

we do have the money since we've jettisoned so much dead weight. there is not a thing not to like about lee. 30HR/100RBI 4 years running (sorry, 1 of those years 99 RBI). he's hit for better average this season and he's cut down significantly on the strikeouts. and he'll swipe 10-15 bases. very tough to overrate this. also note a 1.008 OPS with RISP this season.

the only question is the defense, where he's average at best. overall, the positive impact he'd have on the lineup every night significantly outweighs the negatives his average defense would bring.

but this whole point is moot. shapiro will not pursue him with any seriousness. nope, he's looking to replace his low-cost highly productive young first base prospect, Sir Garko, with an average and aging 'veteran presence'.

no need to sign hafner this season. he may not even finish top 3 in the MVP, but he knows damn well how amazing he is. the indians would have no leverage, and we've got him for 2 more seasons as is at a discount.

by brad on Sep 2, 2006 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

The more we wait with Hafner, the less leverage we have. I'm rounding here, but basically right now, we have him for:

$5.0MM
$6.0MM

I think he'd have to at least listen if we told him we'd tear up those 2 years as they currently exist and go:

$7.0MM
$9.0MM
$11.0MM

by cheech99 on Sep 2, 2006 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

You want to give Hafner a one-year, $16 million extension? You don't have to be that generous!

I think at this point, Hafner might well accept a three-year extension for $32 million or so.

by Jay on Sep 3, 2006 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Umm, what about his OPS? And his age?

I can think of lots of things about him I don't like.

by afh4 on Sep 2, 2006 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

I doubt that Indians would propose adding $7M to the years under contract (your current numbers
look high) and I don't think Hafner will go for just 1 additional year.

Although Hafner may be easier to extend this off-season than CC, I think both of them are going to want to see want kind of moves the Indians
make in the off-season. Also, their agents will probably want to see if Shapiro (and Wedge) are extended in the off-season. They may be able to get more from a new GM.

by palcal on Sep 2, 2006 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

I'm proposing they add $5MM to the current deal, not $7MM.

If anything, I thought my numbers would be perceived as low.

by cheech99 on Sep 2, 2006 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Very tough to overrate? I think the comments here have got it right. He's a league average left fielder overall. (Ok, slightly better) But he's going to get paid like a star.

Now, there's a decent chance that this team, without another addition, will get less than average production in one of its corners. But again, Lee's going to get paid big big money. Surely that's not the best use of our money.

I don't really buy the whole number-5-offense-so-leave-it-alone argument. We've got plenty of question marks, and I'm ok with paying big money for a decent veteran to fill a lineup spot. Would I sign Lee to a 1 year $1 million contract? Sure thing. But obviously that's not the question. He's very easy to overrate.

by dgcambridge on Sep 2, 2006 9:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Lots of concerns? Explain the concerns?
This is - as mentioned - the #5 offensive team in the majors. That said, the team has gotten by with "less than average" production at the corners all season. WHY bring in a player who can only marginally improve this roster? Infact, I don't know how they could really improve. Natural progression will probably take them the place that Lee would have brought them this year.
Lets break it down.
3b has been a black hole - that has to be the assumption that Marte will continue to develope into atleast an adequet 3b. That will improve the offense.
2b - SS has been mediocre - Peralta has had a better second half then first and I think batting lower in the order is helping him. No matter what the team does at 2b, it will be atleast as good as Belliard. So the infield is 3/4 improved.
In the OF - Dominated by injuries! Blake and Micheals are no Carlos Lee, but considering they missed decent chunks of the season and their replacement players were worse then they are...Thats an improvement. Not to mention the continued developement of Grady.
C + DH - Both of these guys are steadily improving. Both of them are in the top 2(arguably #1) at their positions. Another year under their belt, is another year of steady improvement.

Maybe I'm going a little overboard, but why spend money on something that is the strength of the team? Would making the offense a SLIGHT bit better make this team that has been at the top offensively for the last 3 seasons a playoff team...NO WAY!
But improving the defensive makeup, tossing in a true leader or two, adding a quality starter and making the bullpen into the "once was" strength of this team WILL put them in the playoffs.

by Brandini on Sep 2, 2006 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

I think he basically agrees with you. He thinks Lee is a silly signing. The larger point is that there's no reason to "leave the offense alone." It could be improved and if a good signing comes along the Indians shouldn't pass on it just because the offense was good this year.

by afh4 on Sep 2, 2006 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Yeah, I'm agreeing on Lee, a marginal improvement at best. But I don't think its so clear that we'll automatically be the top scoring team next year, just because we've done well this year. That sounds like classic fan speak: next year we will keep all our gains, all down players will bounce back, and our young guys will develop. Hafner and Sizemore are probably as close to you can get as sure things, although they could be slightly worse.

Be are you so sure about LF, 2b, 1b? Those are all question marks, to different extents. Sure, Shapiro has put smart, cost-afforadable possible solutions in each spot, but any of those guys could play at replacement level next year. (Heck, that could easily happen at RF, SS, or 3b, although in those cases, you'd have to say the potential for impact production and low cost is well worth it).

We've put overselves in position to use cheap youth througout the lineup, so if we have an opportunity to use all our money/resources on pitching, so be it. I'm with you. But I'm not taking our offense for granted.

by dgcambridge on Sep 2, 2006 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Martinez is a sure thing too.
As is Peralta.

We aren't talking about players who came from nowhere, we are talking Minor League MVPs. And in Martinez's case, a consistent producer.

As for bounce back players? I don't know who you are refering too...Peralta? Well hes shown the ability to bounce back thus far in the second half. Marte? Sure, I'll agree here...Who else? Garko is CLEARLY for real! As mentioned, you can assume Micheals and Blake will be healthy all next year...I don't even think this sounds like I'm being optimistic, it sounds realistic.

And its not as if this is the first time the offense has been one of the leagues best...Infact, this is the third year in a row. The FO would be doing the fans who pay the money to see this team a disservice by bringing in another bat. Bringing in another bat, would be like bringing in another DH...The only thing they need on that side of the diamond is defence...Which Lee doesnt provide.

Sorry if I'm coming off as a homer, but the difference between Micheals/Blake and Lee is not worth much more then say...$5 million to me. That said, the player the team would get for $5 million wouldnt at all be an upgrade and would definitely block this teams future developement(Crowe, Choo, Franklyn).

by Brandini on Sep 3, 2006 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Maybe I'm a wild pessimist, but Garko isn't CLEARLY anything to me. There's no reason he can't be Shane Spencer Jr.

As for Peralta, I don't know what kind of sure thing he's supposed to be. A sure thing mvp candidate? or a sure thing little bit better than average SS?

by afh4 on Sep 3, 2006 4:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Garko is playing EXACTLY the way he will play next year. Give him at bats and motivation and he can perform, theres LITTLE arguement there. No he isn't going to be the "typical" 1b with 30+ home run power, but this isn't a fantasy league. Having a .300 hitter with good bat control is excellent. Bat him in front of the leagues best DH and the leagues second best catcher...And thats clearly solid production out of 1b.

As for Peralta, he can't get any worse. He currently has 2 win shares above replacement players. Even a MODEST improvement would probably carry that number up to 4 or 5.

But again, I will point to the fact that the team is the 5th ranked offensive team WITH Peraltas BAD bat, WITH Boone, WITH Belliard, WITH the injuries to Blake and Micheals. It is EASY to assume that Martinez, Sizemore and Hafner will ATLEAST duplicate this seasons numbers. I don't see HOW with all the bad things that this team has done offensively they could get worse...The future is bright.

So again, why add a guy who isn't going to bring anything to the table? What, he'll help the team win more blowouts? OH WELL! Its not as if Lee is some run creating machine...Also, is it possible his numbers have been inflated by continually playing in hitters parks?

So would you bring in another Lefty starter? Would you have a rotation of CC, Lee, Sowers, Westbrook/Byrd and say...Zito? I think your answer for not bringing in another lefty will give you reasonable explanation for the lack of a need of offensive support.

by Brandini on Sep 3, 2006 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Well, I guess if there's little argument there, I won't try. I hope Garko keeps playing EXACTLY like he's playing now. I hope you're right all around.

As a side note, that's an interesting take on Michaels. You keep throwing him in with Blake, as though both have had good seasons that were limited by injuries. ??

by dgcambridge on Sep 3, 2006 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

To explain the Micheals + Blake injury issue...
Micheals missed time while Blake was healthy. Blake missed time while Micheals was healthy. Both of them were in a sense replaced by Choo/Gutierrez. While neither Micheals nor Blake have played OUTSTANDING this season, their numbers have been better then the aforementioned duo that subbed during their injuries. That said, a healthy Micheals + Blake is better for 162 games then Micheals + Blake missing some games and being subbed for lesser players.

by Brandini on Sep 3, 2006 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

someone please please explain to me how lee's total numbers as a left fielder is nothing more than marginal over jason michaels and everyone else combined that we've trotted out in left this season? is there a single statistic that helps you? not even steals will save you. defense forget it, a wash. run production, save yourself the trouble

by brad on Sep 3, 2006 11:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

I think...atleast for me personally...the reason he isn't a big upgrade is because this team is more or less "set" offensively. For a single season would you pay an extra 10-12 million to bring Mauer in over Martinez? I think thats what it comes down too...Although it is obvious the difference between Micheals and Lee are far greater then the difference between Mauer and Martinez, is it work 10-12 million?
I think the concensus is a stern NO.

by Brandini on Sep 3, 2006 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

Whoever signs Lee is going to be a sucker. If you look up "Winner's Curse" in Wikipedia, they've already got his picture there.

Often players get overrated for being the best hitter on a bad-hitting team. Happened with Konerko last year, Carlos Lee the year before, Torii Hunter a couple years before that. The fact that this guy is considered a potential addition is a joke. I don't think he's significantly more valuable than Casey Blake, and nobody's going to give him $50 million, or even half that.

by Jay on Sep 3, 2006 3:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: sign lee, win world series

I can think of one team that might give him between 25 and 50 million, particularly if they find a taker for Sheffield. Ultimately, I agree, Lee would be a terrible addition for us. If people want to upgrade a position player, keep your eyes on 2B. Any place else... I just don't see the logic.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Sep 3, 2006 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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