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Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile

Howdy. In case you haven't noticed (and judging by the attendance you haven't), BP's Marc Normandin profiled our young shortstop in a premium article posted Thursday the 11th.  If you're not a subscriber, the player profile series that Marc does is an excellent one.  In fact, that series coupled with Joe Sheehan's daily thoughts are worth the price of admission alone (no offense to Fox or Goldstein, who are right there in my book..I digress.)

Star-divide

So you're not a subscriber and you want to know the skinny? The verdict is nothing that would shock us, namely that he could go either way offensively, and that his defense is below par. The process is the interesting part of the article, however, so I suggest you give it a read.

The poll question is just a curiosity, stemming from my brief stint in marketing. (BTW, Ryan/Jay, the allow multiple selections checkbox didn't seem to work for me).

Poll
How many premium baseball sites do you subscribe to?
1
15 votes
2
6 votes
3+
0 votes
None (don't want to spend the cash, but I would if I could)
28 votes
None (not interested in the opinions, or don't see the value)
11 votes

60 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 15 comments

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Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
I found the profile pretty disappointing - it was long on analysis but very short on conclusions.  

by mkwng on Jan 12, 2007 6:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
I have to disagree.  It illustrated pretty forcefully why, while Peralta might be poised for a bounce-back year, he nonetheless projects as a sub-800 OPS guy -- a solid starter for his peak years but not the impact player he once appeared to be.  I'll write up more of a synopsis later.

by Jay on Jan 12, 2007 7:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
The problem for the Tribe is how tolerant of a poor hitting Peralta can we be?  If his value today (WSAB) rests primarily on his below average defense, and his hitting doesn't improve, I believe the Indians should try to replace him within the season and not wait until the season is too far advanced.  

by MTF on Jan 12, 2007 9:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
Peralta's fielding win share mystifies me.  Ostensibly, he's the second best fielding shortstop in the majors.  What is the failing in the stat?

by MTF on Jan 12, 2007 9:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
I think the reason Win Shares rates him so well is because he received a lot of chances due of the nature of the pitching staff, and because he's pretty good at turning double plays.

With defensive statistics, if you look long and hard enough, you'll find one that supports what you believe.  

by Ryan on Jan 12, 2007 9:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
Fielding Win Shares include adjustments for the tendencies of each team's rotation.  A great deal of Fielding Win Shares is essentially broken down from aggregate team performance into position shares, and from there into shares for each player at each position.  It's an odd approach, but it's internally consistent, and it's basically not capable of being glaringly wrong for very long.

by Jay on Jan 12, 2007 10:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
I too would have guessed the stat reflects all the GB's he sees, but if it is adjusted for the tendancies of the staff then I'm still confused. It'll be interesting to see how he performs this year, and if that stat changes relative position at all.

Where would you suggest he belongs in the fielding list?  Last season he was unable to play balls in the hole at all, and his lack of range also prevented him from backing up the third base gap.

by MTF on Jan 13, 2007 9:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
I think the reason Win Shares rates him so well is because he received a lot of chances due of the nature of the pitching staff, and because he's pretty good at turning double plays.

That's an interesting observation.  What we notice about fielding is when a guy screws up, or makes a great play; it's much harder to recognize, "Hey, he hasn't screwed up a double-play in weeks!"

by CaptainEasy on Jan 12, 2007 11:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
He may be slow, but he doesn't make many mistakes (atleast ones that count as stone age errors).  I'm not sure if SABR has meassures to account for times when he was out of positions and there could have been an out had he been paying attention.

Just a question...
What has a greater impact on the outcome of the game, a single, or reaching by error?  I know it matters based on the point in the game and the runners on base, but generally, what has a greater impact?

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Jan 13, 2007 10:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
Over at Inside the Book TangoTiger has his table of linear weights which calculate the run expectancy of every possible event.  Based on those data, it depends a little bit on the situation, but reaching base on an error generally has a slightly higher run expectancy.

by APV on Jan 13, 2007 10:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
I noticed that too .... best character in movie.

by talonk on Jan 13, 2007 3:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
as far as i know there are no statistics based on how many balls a player can actually get to---and from what i have seen, the guy doesnt seem to cover all that much ground---but then i have always thought 230 pound shortstops may be better off playing another position.  just my opinion, but i dont care if a ss hits .200 if he can field his position with authority--hell i still remember the 69 mets who won it all with a shortstop who batted under .200---which reminds me i have a program from shea from 69 autographed by nolan ryan and tom seaver i need to put on e-bay.

being new to the room, you all may have to educate me on the stats you are now using so that i can at least counter with my own stats---and even then i may have to go back to college for more math and statistical analysis courses which i really prefer not to do.

by rustyparts on Jan 13, 2007 9:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
Bud Harrelson actually hit .248/.341/.306.  Not particularly robust, but certainly above .200.

In the pre-juice era, slick-fielding SS's were highly regarded.  In the last 10-12 years, when people were hitting homeruns like mad, small-ball and defense have been less important.  

And I think, statistically, the consensus is that a really bad offensive player, at any position, can't possibly save enough runs with his defense to compensate for being horrible offensively.  If the nature of the game changes (i.e. fewer homers, more groundballs & small ball, etc.) then the "break-even" line for offensive contribution changes.

by CaptainEasy on Jan 14, 2007 4:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prospectus' Peralta Player Profile
was talking about al weis who i think hit .196--but ive slept alot since then and may no longer have a clear memory

by rustyparts on Jan 15, 2007 7:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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