ALCS::Game #3 - Simulated

by Xeifrank on Oct 15, 2007 4:13 PM EDT

The series moves back to Cleveland 1-1 and fans of both sides have probably caught up on their sleep after an exciting Game #2 thriller. In that Game #2, my simulator gave the Indians a 51.16% win probability while Vegas only gave them a 43.48% win probability. What does the simulator and Vegas say about the Game #3 matchup between Dice-K and Westbrook?

Game #3 Win Probabilities:

LV Hilton Sports Book: Red Sox 53.49%
Xeifrank's Simulator: Red Sox 50.76%

Both sides predict a very even game. The simulator gives a slight nod to the BoSox even though the results are within the margin of error, making this game pretty much a tossup for the simulator.

Best of luck.

vr, Xeifrank

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Re: ALCS::Game #3 - Simulated

Is there any way to apply a "Gambling Propensity" factor to the Vegas prediction? As has been pointed out before- the line can move based on the size and type of fan base. I suspect the BoSox get a lot more action simply because of who they are.

Just asking. I'm not questioning the prediction. My head gives a slight edge to the Red Sox, too.

by Spidey on Oct 15, 2007 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

Re: ALCS::Game #3 - Simulated

Once again, you beat Vegas. Keep it up, man!

by Spidey on Oct 16, 2007 12:14 PM EDT reply actions

Game #4 Simulated

instead of opening a new diary for Game #4, here are the predictions for Game #4.

Simulator: Boston 57.16%
Vegas: Boston 51.22%

The simulator obviously doesn't like all the hits and home runs that Byrd has the propensity to give up. Vegas on the otherhand, is probably looking closely at the small sample size of recent performances of Paul Byrd and using that as his likely norm. The simulator is saying "bet on the Red Sox", if you happen to be a gambler.

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 16, 2007 1:51 PM EDT reply actions

Re: ALCS::Game #3 - Simulated

Momentum is swinging toward the Indians, so no big surprise that Vegas is giving Boston a slight edge. Is the simulator able to take into account the recent performance and injury for Wakefield?

by Spidey on Oct 16, 2007 2:11 PM EDT reply actions