ALCS::Game #3 - Simulated
The series moves back to Cleveland 1-1 and fans of both sides have probably caught up on their sleep after an exciting Game #2 thriller. In that Game #2, my simulator gave the Indians a 51.16% win probability while Vegas only gave them a 43.48% win probability. What does the simulator and Vegas say about the Game #3 matchup between Dice-K and Westbrook?
Game #3 Win Probabilities:
LV Hilton Sports Book: Red Sox 53.49%
Xeifrank's Simulator: Red Sox 50.76%
Both sides predict a very even game. The simulator gives a slight nod to the BoSox even though the results are within the margin of error, making this game pretty much a tossup for the simulator.
Best of luck.
vr, Xeifrank
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Re: ALCS::Game #3 - Simulated
Just asking. I'm not questioning the prediction. My head gives a slight edge to the Red Sox, too.
by Spidey on
Oct 15, 2007 5:07 PM EDT
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Re: ALCS::Game #3 - Simulated
by Spidey on
Oct 16, 2007 12:14 PM EDT
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Game #4 Simulated
Simulator: Boston 57.16%
Vegas: Boston 51.22%
The simulator obviously doesn't like all the hits and home runs that Byrd has the propensity to give up. Vegas on the otherhand, is probably looking closely at the small sample size of recent performances of Paul Byrd and using that as his likely norm. The simulator is saying "bet on the Red Sox", if you happen to be a gambler.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on
Oct 16, 2007 1:51 PM EDT
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Re: ALCS::Game #3 - Simulated
by Spidey on
Oct 16, 2007 2:11 PM EDT
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