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Are you serious?

by FaustosSinkingFastball on Oct 23, 2007 12:51 AM EDT

I've heard some people talking about trading CC. I don't know if anyone was being sarcastic, but that is just crazy. Most starters from the final four teams were brought up internally, as it is really hard to trade for/sign pitching. This tells me that you should hold on to what you have. We have no one on deck who is near his level, and it would be really hard to get value for a guy like CC. What good hitter/pitcher is on the trading block? Sure, we could get a few hitting prospects, but we have several beginning hitters starting or receiving significant playing time (Gutierrez, Barfield, Cabrera, Francisco). We could receive pitching prospects, but we have two really good young pitchers starting, and two more young pitchers on deck (Miller, Sowers). If we can't resign him I understand trading him before his price goes through the roof. I just don't think there is value out there for him.

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Re: Are you serious?

YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!?

Actually, there are a lot of different factors that could play into possible trade scenarios for C.C. I wouldn't be surprised if Shapiro asks for a straight answer from Sabathia and his agent before the winter meetings. If there's a strong possibility he won't sign, it's best not to let negotiations drag out, since it would make it more difficult to trade him (at least for a comparable value) as time goes on. All of the above could probably be applied to a lot of free agents-to-be though and I was just generalizing.

As of now, I don't think trading C.C. is a good idea. He might suck in the playoffs, but he did a good job of getting us to the playoffs. I say keep him for 2008 (opinion subject to change).

by Pronk33 on Oct 23, 2007 1:30 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

But if there is value out there, I think you have to consider it. Holding on to him might well not be an option. It's hard to imagine it being in everyone's best interest for him to sign an extension. We would be saddled with the contract, and/or he would likely be underpaid.

So your choices may well be draft pick compensation or players gained by trade, right? As much as we love our own prospects, there are better ones out there, that might be available.

Also, I don't think one of Boston's starters was "homegrown." Of course your point stands for the Indians, because we can't go out and do what Boston does. Even still, Byrd and Westbrook are only sort of homegrown.

by CBusSteve on Oct 23, 2007 1:35 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Neither Schilling, Beckett, Dice-K, or Wakfield was homegrown for Boston, nor were Byrd or Westbrook for us. That's 6 out of 8 starters in the ALCS. I'm too tired to look into the NLCS, but I know Hernandez and Fogg were not homegrown either.

I have no idea what % of all starting pitchers are home grown, but my hunch is that it's not more than 75% and probably closer to 50%. It is hard to sign/trade for front line pitching (unless you want to throw money at people), but it's not impossible to get pitching. After all, if we were to trade CC some team would be fulfilling that scenario.

Do I think it's likely the Indians would get equal value for CC? No, at least not immediately. Do I think the Indians should trade him? I honestly don't know. I think it's premature to say one way or another what the best option is. But to preclude trading Sabathia would be just as crazy as steadfastly refusing not to trade him. It's not ludicrous to discuss the possibility. What else are we going to do to occupy ourselves?

by osoc13 on Oct 23, 2007 2:12 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

This has been discussed before. What's equal value to you? Even the idiots running the Yanks and Boston won't trade away their front line prospects anymore. Plus the team trading for him ends up with just one year of CC and will likely lose him to FA.

So in short, no we probably won't receive fair value in return. He is more valuable to us as long as we are a contending team, and I have to say that returning the same team that tied for the most wins in baseball we have to be favored to be in the running again next year.

If we trade CC we don't make the playoffs next year. So make your decision based on that.

by hans on Oct 23, 2007 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I can't tell if your post is in response to mine since you seem to miss the two broad points I was making.

To address your post, though: I don't know what equal value would be, but that's in part because the situation is fluid and what qualifies as equal value is contingent upon any number of factors.

Moreover, I don't think trading Sabathia means the team misses the playoffs. I do think the decision to trade him should be based upon many, many factors, including the possibility of extending him (for how much per season, for how many seasons, etc) and what players a team would offer for him in return.

The point being that none of this is simple and having discussions about all the options isn't crazy.

by osoc13 on Oct 23, 2007 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

yeah I read it to fast, missed some key words like "?" and "No". Sorry about that.

by hans on Oct 23, 2007 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

No worries!

by osoc13 on Oct 23, 2007 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Fwiw, I consider Byrd to be home-grown. Came up through our ranks with Chad Ogea and the gang back in the early 1990s.

by tabler84 on Oct 23, 2007 6:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Do you think the Yankees would part with Joba for CC? Or would we likely have to throw in Adam Miller also??

by Nat on Oct 23, 2007 7:10 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

i hope you're not serious.

by jeremy @ Let's Go Tribe! on Oct 23, 2007 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Of course he's joking. It would take way more than CC and Miller to get Joba. Jesus.

by nickjs21 on Oct 23, 2007 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

yeah, i mean, how irresponsible would the Yankees have to be to trade The World's Greatest Pitcher to some minor league team in exchange for Chokemaster McFatbelly and some "prospect" no one's ever even heard of?

by jeremy @ Let's Go Tribe! on Oct 23, 2007 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

This isn't really accurate. Only the Yankees have "prospects" as such. Everybody else just has inexperience.

by fleerdon on Oct 23, 2007 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I love this post.

by nickjs21 on Oct 23, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Seriously awesome.

Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Oct 23, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

duh. that's why i put it in quotes. the Yankees are actually the only team that even has real players.

by jeremy @ Let's Go Tribe! on Oct 23, 2007 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

No, it wouldn't.

by Jay on Oct 23, 2007 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

exactly. it would be just enough.

by emil minty on Oct 23, 2007 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Yeah, Jobo would come in handy if we needed a pest strip next midge season.

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Oct 23, 2007 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

How would one go about trading for God?

by emd2k3 on Oct 24, 2007 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I still want us to talk to the Dodgers about trading CC. Kershaw, Elbert, and Laroche all seem tempting, and I'm sure they'd be willing to part with at least one.

There's no such thing as baseball...

by gahnki on Oct 23, 2007 10:51 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

i kind of think we have to trade him now. haven't thought about it all that much, so maybe i'll elaborate later. but anyway, i'm certainly not surprised people are discussing it.

by emil minty on Oct 23, 2007 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I do believe this will be this offseason's GREAT DEBATE.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Oct 23, 2007 1:29 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Perhaps, but what would have happened if CC had got a couple more wins and locked up the Cy Young earlier? Or had not sucked in the playoffs? There would be no debate. All year I heard people pissed that we were signing Westbrook and hafner with the $ we could be using on CC. This was THE year from CC we have all been waiting for; the kind of year you dream about prospects like Adam Miller or Aaron Laffey having. This was what we wanted from CC, i don't think its fair to him to ship him away for having 3 bad starts (which made him cheaper to sign anyway) and discount the fact that he had one of the all time great years by an Indians pitcher. I understand that we should trade him before he signs that fat contract, which would be this year, so I guess it depends on the Dolans. But this isn't sending Nomar out of Boston, this would be a huge hole in the rotation that is not gonna be filled by Jeremy Sowers or Adam Miller or (god forbid) Cliff Lee.

by FaustosSinkingFastball on Oct 23, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I think it starts with an honest assessment of his value. While teams are very hesitant to trade prospects these days, I have got to figure that CC would be worth a huge package.

Maybe we should look at potential (hypothetical) packages, and then start figuring out if it's worth trading him.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Oct 23, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I don't think the reason people are willing to consider trading CC is his poor postseason performance. I absolutely believe we would still have this discussion if had pitched well -- we just would have started it a week later, and the hypothetical packages would be a bit nicer. Obviously his performance only hurt his trade value.

I also don't think anybody is saying that trading him would help the team next year. Given our limitations though, I don't understand why it is unreasonable to ask whether it is most valuable to have him on the team next year, to spend 1/3 of our annual payroll on him for the next half decade, or to have the long-term benefits of any package we can get for him. That hole in the rotation is almost certainly coming whether we like it or not. Trading CC might be the BEST way to fill it.

by CBusSteve on Oct 23, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

That is a really, really good point.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Oct 23, 2007 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

If C.C. had performed well, we'd be having the same discussion because of increased anxiety over his affordability. So either way, we were going to find a way to obsess over this.

I think the trade market for rentals has tightened a little and will tighten considerably more in this next year. Few trades for vets happened at the deadline, and the ones that did mostly backfired. At some point, GM's are going to start figuring out, one by one, that veterans generally have been overvalued in these deals and prospects undervalued.

So it will be harder and harder to get significant value for C.C. If anyone can find a new "Colon deal," it's Shapiro, who authored the original. But I doubt that there's really one out there.

Interesting to note that both Arizona and Colorado have gobs of payroll flexibility next year, and history of spending like idiots.

by Jay on Oct 23, 2007 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Shapiro himself has said that he's not sure he could ever get the kind of package now that he got for Colon. And that trade was made mid-season.

by tabler84 on Oct 23, 2007 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Tabler commented towards this I think, but yeah, Montreal theoretically got more than a year and a half out of Colon, we're only talking a year for Sabathia.

by cheech99 on Oct 23, 2007 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

One of the reasons I'm a little indifferent to the whole debate is that I'm trying to imagine what sort of prospects of OURS people would ask for if C.C. were on some other team, and mostly coming up with guys I'd hate to move. Even a reasonable package -- a couple of the AA pitchers and a younger position player or two -- seems too much after watching the rookies save 2007.

So I can only imagine a potential trading partner going: "Meh. We're not giving you 2010 in exchange for 2008."

Oh, the hell with it. POWER BAT!

by fleerdon on Oct 23, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I really think the best point of this entire discussion so far has been this:

There will be a hole in the rotation after CC leaves. Do we keep him next year for the playoff run, or see what we can get for him this offseason?

The Dodgers look like the best bet for me. They're stupid in that they hate playing kids, and they have an abundance of young talent.

Also! Devil Rays, though they wouldn't pony up the cash to sign him. So that's out, I think. San Fransisco has some nice young pitching, but I think they'd be hesitant to part with Lincecum. I drool over Gallardo in Milwaukee, but similar situation.

Also! We should look at idiot GM's (see above with LA, and Seattle of course. Markakis and pitching would be nice, though I don't see it happening. DBacks have some young talent.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Oct 23, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

No sense in the Giants trading Lincecum with their focus on a younger roster. I could see a scenario in which they decide CC isn't exactly elderly and he presents less risk, but I'm not buying it. If only.

by nickjs21 on Oct 23, 2007 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

My benchmark for trade-able pitching this off-season is Kason Gabbard. Any better than that, and I figure the dude's not going anywhere. This random, totally unsupported belief leads me to wonder if a position player isn't a more likely return for Sabathia. But as I've said, I'm trying not to invest much more than curiosity in this debate.

by fleerdon on Oct 23, 2007 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

My sense is that our need for that one more starter is greater in 2008 than in 2009. We've got a whole bunch of guys who will be improving/developing over 2008 -- Laffey, Miller, Sowers, Smith, Lofgren, and probably a couple of guys we won't even see coming.

None of those guys are necessarily good bets to break camp with the club at the end of March, but most of them are likely to be good options a year later. So as I see it, we need Sabathia more than what we're likely to get back for him.

by Jay on Oct 23, 2007 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I think the Mets would be an interesting matchup. Minaya will want to do something big, and they have some prospects.

by ClarkM on Oct 23, 2007 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

The Giants will be looking to move a starter or two in the offseason, but it won't be Lincecum. It'll probably be Lowry, but I wouldn't bite on him.

by talonk on Oct 23, 2007 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Lincecum and Gallardo are almost certainly untouchables.

I'm starting to fall into Jay's camp on this. The goal, as we all know, is to win one title in our freaking lifetime. With the chance gone from this year, we're looking at a golden opportunity in 2008. CC will be much more replaceable in 2009.

by tabler84 on Oct 23, 2007 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

If we traded him for his weight in gold, we could outspend the Yankees.

LeCavs.com!
We never surrender!

by Matt in LA on Oct 23, 2007 7:16 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

We should not be saddled with Sabatthia at 18K a year for 5-7 years, which is what he probably will ask for. He had a great year, with superb control, and then completely choked in the playoffs. From 1 1/2 walks / 9 innings, to a walk an inning ? High anxiety.
He is a good hitter, so maybe he would like the NL. Injury possibilities are also a risk for the Hefty Lefty.
I would shop him sometime before midseason with the big market teams - Angels, Mets, Cubs, Yankees, Cardinals. Cashman could give us Hughes and Cano, I would take it in a NY minute. They badly need starting pitching (Wang as the #1 starter /), although have lately come to their senses and realize the value of a farm system and young players on the team.
By the way, the Minnesota Twins have a similar problem with Johann Santana. They cannot afford him and he has 1 more year there. I would take Santana over Sabatthia, his value is higher.

by DenverIndian on Oct 23, 2007 7:49 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

BOLD prediction. Santana and Sabathia go nowhere. AND both Cleveland and Minnesota battle it out for first and second place in the division next year.

by hans on Oct 23, 2007 9:24 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I don't see Minnesota as that strong of a threat, what with Torii Hunter now a free agent, and the rest of the team minus Mauer and Morneau a bunch of banjo hitters. Addition by subtraction: Rondell White is retiring, with his .150 batting average as a DH.
It will be a real circus if Barry Bonds reunites with Jim Leyland (although I think he will go across the bay to Oakland. But he should be prepared to accept considerably less than the 15 million he rec'd from the Giants)
Baseball needs to void the silly rule that the team with the best record in the league cannot play the wild card team if it is in the same division. Why on earth not ?
That way, Boston and New York play each other in the 1st round.

by DenverIndian on Oct 23, 2007 10:18 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Why in the world would Billy Beane sign Barry Bonds? When has he ever done anything like that?

by nickjs21 on Oct 24, 2007 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

The (potential) move is viewed as similar to picking up Mike Piazza for 2007 and Frank Thomas for 2006.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I'm sure it would be for one year, but wouldn't they have to pay him way too much to make it comparable to the first two deals?

by nickjs21 on Oct 24, 2007 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

There pitching next year could be extremely solid. Santana, Lirano, Garza, Baker, Bonser/Slowey....I mean this is a solid rotation top to bottom and if Lirano comes back to form, its going to be CC/Fausto all over again (you know, before the playoffs!). There also about the only team you can count on year to year in having a solid bullpen. Offense will be hard to come by, but the pitching is just too good to overlook.

by hans on Oct 24, 2007 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

They need hitting badly. I'm not familiar with the Twins minor league system, but I don't know of any talented young hitters that figure to play a role next year. I'm extremely confident in our ability next year as there are less question marks than there were at this time a year ago.

There's no such thing as baseball...

by gahnki on Oct 24, 2007 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Garza's pure stuff is downright filthy.

by tabler84 on Oct 24, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I'm in Jay's camp. We'll have internal plugs for the hole in 2009, not 2008. We need C.C. for 2008.

by Voltaire on Oct 24, 2007 10:48 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Hey, kids! Want something new to do this Christmas break? Check out CAMP JAY!

by fleerdon on Oct 24, 2007 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Watch who you're calling a kid. I'm at least five times your age.

by Voltaire on Oct 24, 2007 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

This is a good point. However, I still think - and this is all relying on whether we can get a very good package for CC - the possibility of filling multiple holes, solidifying depth in the system, and finding more cheap, young talent can't be overlooked.

I don't think Shapiro will sacrifice 2008 in the least bit. But we know his history - he will always do what is best for the organization long term. If he finds a package that makes him think trading CC would do that, I think he would seriously consider pulling the trigger.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Oct 24, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

There's an aspect of this that you're missing, which is this: The best thing for the organization long term, at this point, is to make the postseason two years in a row, hopefully 3-5 years in a row.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

You might have trumped me there.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Oct 24, 2007 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I still believe that we can make the postseason without CC. The rotation might be:

Fausto
Jake "brass balls" Westbrook
Cliff Lee/Jeremy Sowers
Paul Byrd
Aaron Laffey/Sowers

I think that the rotation would be strong enough to make the postseason.

extremely optimistic about next year

by gahnki on Oct 24, 2007 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

I don't know. what happens when a guy gets injured. or two guys get injured (like this year).

by hans on Oct 24, 2007 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Are you serious?

Could be, but entrusting two spots to Laffey, Sowers and Lee is not a contending strategy. That's basically three fifth starters for two spots, and Byrd is not guaranteed to be better than a fourth starter.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions

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