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asdrubal cabrera

by 7foot3 on Oct 23, 2007 11:40 PM EDT Comment 51 comments

I know that I am probably the only person on the face of the planet who thinks this, but doesn't there have to be some thinking in the FO about what to do at 2B? Asdrubal Cabrera's career OPS (including postseason) is .720. Not even average. Of the 9 regulars (Lofton in LF and Guti in RF) he had the lowest OPS (again including the postseason). He may have shored up 2B for about 100 PAs when replacing Barfield, but his total numbers, which include a BABIP higher than can probably be expected out of him, aren't anything worth noticing.

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Re: asdrubal cabrera

By this argument, they should have just released him after 2006, since he had a sub-600 OPS in Triple-A.

Age is everything in evaluating young players and prospects.

Everything.

I can't even describe the disproportionality of considering BABIP but not Age. It's like considering doubles but not home runs.

by Jay on Oct 23, 2007 11:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

I will admit during some of Cabrera's most recent sub-par at-bats I worried that the league would adjust to him next year and he'd be no better than 2007 Barfield. Then I just keep reminding myself of how old he is, and how much time he has to re-adjust.

by nickjs21 on Oct 24, 2007 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

i'm not saying he won't get better, but that he has to. and he put up a 660 OPS for AAA 2006, which included a slight drop in his BABIP. I think it should be expected to see a regression from 2007 regular season cabrera. which still leaves a hole at 2B for the 2008 indians, a team that plans to contend. If we're going to be discussing the situations in LF, 3B, closer, and the back end of the rotation, its only fair to throw in 2B. Sure we have guys who can fill out the role long term, but well enough to win in 2008?

by 7foot3 on Oct 24, 2007 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Cabrera will get better. Come on. (see below for a more reasoned argument)
Look at the production we won with in '07!

by Voltaire on Oct 24, 2007 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

i think so too, long term. but not necessarily in 2008. sure, cabrera could give us a 650 OPS, and as long as everyone else performed at the same level, we'll probably win about 92 (our pyth in 07). but can we expect everyone else to perform as well?

by 7foot3 on Oct 24, 2007 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

It takes quite a bit less offense to hold down a spot as a stellar SS (or even 2B) than as a mediocre 2B. You have to look at the total contribution you're getting from the player.

When you're a slick shortstop and only 20 years old, 660 OPS in Buffalo is tremendous. You would have trouble finding five guys who have done that who aren't Hall of Famers. Cabrera was the youngest player in Triple-A last season, and also one of the best defensive players in Triple-A.

AL second basemen had a 755 OPS this season. Even if Asdrubal regresses to 700, he's still going to be average or better on the whole. And who would be available as an upgrade, and at what cost?

Anyone who sees this position as a priority is squinting too hard.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

i'm not sure his glove, which i think is very good, but not absolute top of the line, is enough to make up for a 700 OPS. i'd put him definitely below average at that point, and that puts 2B with 3B and LF as the easiest areas to improve.

by 7foot3 on Oct 24, 2007 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Truly you are making some sort of elaborate joke with this entire post. Your most recent comment about his defense gives this away as satire.

Right? Right?

by Voltaire on Oct 24, 2007 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

age is important. but we have to be able seperate the brett clevlens from the other very young players who show some success right away in the majors.

by 7foot3 on Oct 24, 2007 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

But you're not trying to separate. You're just fretting for the sake of fretting.

My advice is that you find something else to fixate on for a while, come back to this subject in a month or two.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

right, im not trying to seperate. im trying to ask why. Making a blanket statement like 'age is everything' shouldn't work. Sure those guys in general improve, but the ones who don't, why is that?

by 7foot3 on Oct 24, 2007 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

If someone truly knew, they would be the best GM in baseball and have teams that generally would be unbeatable.

by emd2k3 on Oct 25, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

In my Baseball Mogul-addled mind ... I would trade away whoever (Marte, Francisco, Weglarz) to get Freddy Sanchez from the Pirates.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6999

Move Ascab to SS and Johnny to 3B.

That way, Sanchez is your #2 hitter and you can put Ascab in the lower part of the lineup .. where he should be.

Sizemore
Sanchez
Victor
Pronk
Garkosmash
Peralta
Ascab
LF
Blake

That's pretty hot right there. I really doubt Pittsburgh would trade FS away though .. but new management, who knows?

by Toxicadam on Oct 23, 2007 11:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

While this is a little extreme, I agree with the idea that Cabrera has been a little overrated by us at the end of the year. He is improving, but his bat is still suspect. I wouldn't give him the 2B (or the SS) job. I'm not sure what to do with the infield: predicting the futures of Marte, Peralta, Barfield, and Cabrera is tough. Each of them have had both flashes of brilliance and serious lengthy struggles at the plate in the last 3 seasons. I really don't know which of them are going to stick... I guess its better than not having them, but something to watch.

by Ryan Kelsey on Oct 23, 2007 11:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Considering the age of Marte, Barfield, and Cabrera, I don't think it is possible at this point to predict their futures, but I don't think we have to. We can find out at least through the first part of next season. I would keep those three and Peralta on the IF roster next year and see how they perform. Blake can also cover third base next year if necessary. One caveat is that Wedge would have to give everyone enough at bats. Switching Peralta to third base may also be a possibility if Marte does not hit well enough, but I would play him there some in ST first to see if it is a possibility. If a couple of our young guys really bottom out then we can trade for someone to fill one of the wholes. The way I see it, we have flexibility, talent to evaluate, and some time to evaluate that talent next season. I think we're in a good position.

by Kenyafan on Oct 24, 2007 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

I don't agree with Jay that age is everything. But. In Asdrubal's case it's almost everything. He's been very young for his level every year as a pro. The best gauge of how a prospect will play as a major leaguer is how he plays as a minor leaguer, adjusting for age and level. Cabrera had an ops of .881 as a 19 yr old at A ball, in 192 abs. He was promoted overagressively and not surprisingly struggeled. As a 21 yr old at AA, 368 abs, his ops was .837. He was agressively promoted to the big leagues and naturally didn't do as well, but a .775 ops in 159 abs as a 21 yr old rookie is outstanding, and almost guaranteed to get better (forget the postseason). Add the defense, and I'm sure that 2b is not a worry for the front office for quite a while.

by plato on Oct 24, 2007 12:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Well, no, of course it's not everything -- a guy isn't great just because he's young -- but minor league stats really do mean nothing if you don't consider the age, especially looking at minor leaguers under, say, 24. Age is just as least as important as level, and both are far more important than, say, park effects.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Well, again, you don't mean that minor league stats mean nothing. If you had a 28 yr old career minor leaguer with a career ops of about .950, mostly at AAA, you could expect him probably to be a good offensive player in the American League, maybe with an obp of about .400, slug about .500. But I agree you wouldn't expect him to get much better even with several more years experience facing big league pitching. But he might.

by plato on Oct 24, 2007 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Well, it would depend on the peripherals somewhat, but in general, no, I wouldn't. Almost all guys 26 and older are pretty much finished products.

Take a look at how Kouzmanoff's numbers have translated from AA and AAA to the majors. (San Diego is a pitchers park, but so is Buffalo.) And he was 25 over that transition, still with a little projectability. When you see steady numbers from Triple-A to the majors, or improved numbers, it's almost always going to be because it was a younger player.

Asdrubal's numbers were significantly better in the majors (limited sample) this year than in Triple-A. Some of this is just random, but I would submit that it's mostly due to his getting older and stronger -- and at his age, he's still getting faster, too.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

meant to write: "than in Triple-A last year"

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Might add, Cabrera's minor league numbers are somewhat comparable to Jhonny Peralta's, who was even younger at every level until his last year at Buffalo. His ops at Akron, age 20, .801, and at Buffalo, age 21, .631 (only 61 abs). Then at Buffalo, age 22, .878, and league mvp.

by plato on Oct 24, 2007 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Sigh. We're really going to judge a player this young?

Grady Sizemore, AA numbers, age 20 turning 21 (496 ABs)

.373 / .480 / .853

Asdrubal Cabrera AA numbers, age 21 (368 ABs)

.383 / .454 / .837

Grady Sizemore ML debut season, age 21 (138 ABs)

.333 / .406 / .739

Asdrubal Cabrera ML debut season, age 21 (159 ABs)

.354 / .421 / .775

And you're ready to say Cabrera is "not even average?" If Cabrera can bring even better plate discipline -- which is already strong for a 21-year old -- his ceiling will soar. And look at Sizemore; his plate discipline was outstanding in the low minors before lagging at AAA, but his three-year trend is a joy.

by tabler84 on Oct 24, 2007 5:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

again, same as a-rod, sizemore experienced a severe drop in BABIP his first stint in the majors. if cabrera had the same drop, and was below average, i wouldn't be too concerned. the fact that he likely got more than a couple breaks, and still put up a 720 OPS (including the postseason) is a bit concerning

by 7foot3 on Oct 24, 2007 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Dude, you are missing the point. A 21-year old, who plays fantastic defense at either second or short, and can hit a little. Check out his K:BB ratio. This is a guy to get excited about, place your worries elsewhere.

By the way, with cabrera's line drive rate, at about %20, his BABIP of .331 isn't too out of line. These are regular season numbers.

by ClarkM on Oct 24, 2007 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Listen, I want to be nice to you, I really do. But you have used BABIP about eight times, and not once have you made a valid point with it. Seriously, not once.

Put down the BABIP. Back away from the BABIP.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

not once? not in pointing out where the vast differences between sizemore/a-rod and cabrera's numbers have occured?

sorry if i upset anyone. not my intention. i'm just not so willing to put on the homer glasses that say 'all our young players will get better next year'. And while cabrera may be young and exciting, a below average player, which he certainly may be in 2008, is a concern on a team looking for the playoffs.

by 7foot3 on Oct 24, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

not once? not in pointing out where the vast differences between sizemore/a-rod and cabrera's numbers have occured?

That's right, not even then.

He may be below average but is likely to be average, maybe slightly better. Even if he is a little below average, it would be expensive to upgrade at that position. Second basemen who are significantly above average are hard to come by, and the marginal cost to acquire one likely would be too high to justify the marginal return.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

See this diary

by APV on Oct 24, 2007 6:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Awesome.

As usual, my surface-level insight is buried by Adam's comprehensive work.

And prescient, indeed!

by tabler84 on Oct 24, 2007 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

I like AstroCab at 2B. He's very young.

Trying to think up a possible different #2 hitter, but can't come up with anything.

by JulioBernazard on Oct 24, 2007 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

i'm not sure if this is what 7foot3 is asking, but his question and the nearly unanimous response to it makes me wonder this:

even assuming that Droob is going to be a very special player, isn't there a decent chance that Barfield could perform as well as him at second base in 2008? and if this is the case, and there are still aspects of Cabrera's game that he could be working on in Buffalo -- he is only 21, after all -- is it a foregone conclusion that he's the Tribe's opening day second baseman for 2008?

by jeremy on Oct 24, 2007 1:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Barfield posted an OPS+ of 54. 54. 54. While playing one of the worst 2B in the league.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Oct 24, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

so Barfield is done for good?

by jeremy on Oct 24, 2007 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

i guess what i'm asking is, should we expect him to continue to be that bad?

my next question after that is: why didn't we realize he was going to be that bad?

by jeremy on Oct 24, 2007 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

His approach at the plate needs major work. His discipline is just dreadful. It's not impossible he could become serviceable ... but his bat needs MAJOR work to account for his poor defense.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Oct 24, 2007 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

The question is then how did his approach change from 2006 to 2007?

by emd2k3 on Oct 24, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Well, I wouldn't say his approach was that great last year. He faced NL pitching all year, and we can't discount the impact of the jump to the big league.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Oct 24, 2007 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

I place a lot of credit for Peralta's 2007 bounce back on the organization. Derek Shelton spent a lot of time with him in the offseason. I pray they take Barfield that seriously. This will be his first offseason as an Indian, and hopefully someone will get their hands on him and drill some selectivity into his head.

by nickjs21 on Oct 24, 2007 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

I was thrilled with the trade and expected him to be at least "good", but his BB/PA scared me when I looked it up right after the deal. Turned out I was half right.

by Voltaire on Oct 24, 2007 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Adding on to Jay's age argument, the guy had more walks than strikeouts in AA this year! I'm not using his AAA numbers because he was there for such a short amount of time.

This team has been looking for a 2 hitter since I have started closely following them. We finally have one. I don't see why we would want to change that.

Also, you don't want to move him to SS and Jhonny to 3b. That move would significantly lower the positional value of both players.

by Joe on Oct 25, 2007 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

How does moving Asdrubal to shortstop reduce his positional value?

by Jay on Oct 25, 2007 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Don't 2b have a higher value than SS? I would be surpirsied if they don't as I see far more great hitting SS as opposed to 2b.

by Joe on Oct 25, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

No, shortstops unquestionably have more value; it is the key defensive position in the infield.

We have a spike in shortstops who can hit these days, and most second basemen are basically flawed shortstops. You won't see a guy like Belliard or Barfield at shortstop, for example.

by Jay on Oct 25, 2007 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Its key over 2B is about 6% though. This all comes down to who is doing the replacing here. If we slide everyone over (Peralta to 3B, AsCab to SS) you dimish Peralta's VORP (because of his hitting) and AsCab's Vorp (because of his fielding, although it would be a optimal use of his fielding and maybe his hitting, but optimal only by about 6%) In a round about way this all comes back to the battle royale that will take place between Andy Marte and Josh Barfield. Unless you suggest that we sign/trade for another 2B (which would extremely complicate this).

If you want to slip Peralta over to 2B, assuming a smooth transition (but lets not assume anything here), than I think you bump up Peralta's value, maintain AsCab's value (a little less valuable offensively, but more value out of his defense).

or you go with the "If it ain't broke, don't fix it!"

Barfield will need to have a very good year at AAA next year (if that is where he ends up) to press this issue again after next season.

by hans on Oct 25, 2007 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

I'm not saying SS is an easier position to play than 2b. I know it's the hardest. But 2b is probably the weakest hitting position after catcher or CF. If you have a player who hits decent there, why move him to SS, where there are many more quality players?

by Joe on Oct 25, 2007 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Shaprio is quoted in today's PD saying a) he can't imagine a 2008 team without Astro Cab starting, and b) Peralta will not move to 3B. So this seems moot (and bad news for Barfield). We've been over this before, but I'm just saying.

by nickjs21 on Oct 25, 2007 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

I'm happy with this. Hopefully Barfield goes to AAA and tears it up and makes this a problem again in a year.

Marte's time to shine.

by hans on Oct 26, 2007 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

"It's difficult for me to see a team next year that doesn't have Asdrubal Cabrera playing a significant role on it. He won't play shortstop. Jhonny Peralta is our shortstop next year."

Reading between the lines here, we can assume that utility infielder is not the "significant role" Shapiro has in mind. The smallest role one could imagine would be as the big side of a second base platoon, plus spelling Johnny at shortstop now and again. This is not really the most brilliant plan, as it forces you to either rest Johnny against a lefty or start Barfield against a righty, either of which is a waste.

He seems to have ruled out anything more creative for the infield, which is disappointing.

by Jay on Oct 26, 2007 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Something creative? We can't just assume that Peralta could make a successful transfer to 3B.

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

Assume? Who said anything about assume?

The season ended five days ago, and he's already all but ruled out any position change for Peralta, and Wedge talks as though Blake is entrenched at third base.

I am not asking them -- or anyone here even -- to assume that any one particular change would work -- far from it. I would however like to think they'd at least consider significant and even risky changes.

by Jay on Oct 26, 2007 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: asdrubal cabrera

I'm sure they have considered it. They were already profiling the 2008 team in early September. I had just heard an interview with Antonetti about how they were already looking at situations for next year. They probably decided the risk was not worth the reward.

Gator fans have so much in common with Yankee fans. Minus the history and championships, of course.

by gahnki on Oct 27, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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