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Gutierrez

by Pronktastic on Oct 24, 2007 6:07 PM EDT

I was looking through Jay's last Exciting Prospect List (which is an excellent read with the benefit of hindsight), and noticed comments concerning Gutz's power numbers. Specifically, he quotes a scout saying he is a threat for 40 homeruns (which shocked me).

After an extended look at him this season, I was wondering what people thought his ceiling was in terms of power? I can't tell much about a guy's swing mechanics or bat speed, but I know when a ball has been absolutely crushed, and Gutz seemed to punish quite a few balls this year.

At any rate, what is the consensus? 20-25 HR? More?

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Comments

Re: Gutierrez

Didn't mean to imply the EPS was only excellent to read with the benefit of hindsight.

It was and is an outstanding read.

by Pronktastic on Oct 24, 2007 6:16 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

I wouldn't worry about that.

I have big plans for the EPS this offseason. Might even need some help with it.

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

That excites me. It has been one of my favorite LGT features over the last couple years.

by Pronktastic on Oct 24, 2007 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

I think I gave you a head start already this summer ;)

Let me know if you need more input, and I'll see what I can do Jay.

by talonk on Oct 25, 2007 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

I think he's got upside to 30. First year of full-time 13 HR in 271 AB's. Over a full season that already gets you into 25 HR range.

I know there are a lot of Ron Shandler followers on here, interesting to note that Gutz had the highest Power Index (PX) of anyone on the team this year.

by chodson28 on Oct 24, 2007 6:45 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

Franklin's biggest weakness is that he'll chase pitches up out of the strike zone. I would think the book on him is to get ahead with off-speed stuff, then get him to swing a high fastball.

I think 20+ is where he'll stay, and with his defensive ability, that should be good enough. If he figures out the strike zone, he has the potential to become a very good, even All-Star level player.

by Ryan on Oct 24, 2007 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

He chases pitches all over the place. You can also get him out with a slider 2 feet off the plate.

But he'll learn. I look forward to a full season of his next year.

by JulioBernazard on Oct 24, 2007 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

This sounds correct to me. Gutz. is clearly still a work in progress, but he clearly has the ability to be a very good player. His plate discipline has improved dramatically and, even as bad as he was for most of the ALCS, he put up some great at-bats in game 7 (the at bat against Okajima especially). I'm cautiously optimistic about his potential to break out in the next couple of years.

Railing against the sacrifice bunt since 2000.

by jdudas on Oct 24, 2007 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

Re-reading Jay's analysis makes one realize just how amazing was Aaron Laffey's 2007 season. He must be pinching himself.

As for Gutz, statistically I think it's pretty obvious he has 25-homer potential. But he also has a lot of bad at-bats--so many that I'm still not sure he's the answer in RF. Then again, I don't see anyone in the system, at any level, who clearly is a better all-round player.

ken from alexandria

by ken from alexandria on Oct 24, 2007 7:15 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

The Indians should buy Gutz a curveball machine this offseason. It'd be a wise investment.

extremely optimistic about next year

by gahnki on Oct 24, 2007 8:54 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

I remember being the only one I know who had heard of Gutz, or liked him, in '06. Great that he broke out this year.

by Voltaire on Oct 24, 2007 11:36 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

Not around here. If I recall correctly, several folks here wanted to replace Blake with Gutierrez in right field -- never mind that Gootz' numbers in Akron were in worse than Blake's in the majors.

But the heart wants what the heart wants, right?

by Jay on Oct 24, 2007 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

I should have clarified - I didn't mean around here. I was talking about the far less enlightened local Tribe population. Wonderful spirits, all. Just no knowledge of the farm system.

by Voltaire on Oct 24, 2007 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

it's the eternal optimism untested talent provokes

by osoc13 on Oct 24, 2007 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

I remember saying to several people that I believed that trading Gutz would be a huge mistake. Package up Francisco all you want, but Gutz is a gamer. I dare to think what will happen when he learns some selectivity at the plate.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Oct 25, 2007 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

Anyone with baseball knowledge have any thoughts on the swing rehaul? He supposedly had more power before the Indians tore the whole swing down and rebuilt it for contact, right?

Anybody remember this?

by afh4 on Oct 25, 2007 11:20 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

I'm working on a prospect comparison between Gutierrez and Francisco, similar to what I did for Asdrubal back in July. I talk about this a little bit in it. What's weird is that the Indians seemed to make a really effective overhaul of his swing in 2005 and especially 2006, but at the expense of Gutz's power. In Cleveland this year, he seemed to completely revert back to his previous tendencies, but with a re-awakening of his power...

Anyway, I should have more to say sometime today or tomorrow.

by APV on Oct 25, 2007 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

APV,

In going through archives, your prospect analysis posts stand out as some of the most fun and insightful. Awesome, awesome work. Looking forward to this one.

by tabler84 on Oct 25, 2007 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

I look forward to that. Seems to me that the swing overhaul is essential to his long-term success, i.e., it's the only thing that can keep him, and has kept him, from becoming Alex Escobar or Brad Snyder.

My hope is to see him continue improving in his pitch recognition and staying consistent with his mechanics, and then let the power come back to him within that approach as his upper-body strength develops naturally over the next two or three years.

If he does all of that, that's where the potential to hit 30-40 comes from. But even if he can only manage half of those things, he'll still be a better all-around player than a guy like Crisp -- even at Crisp's peak -- and we certainly felt he was valuable.

by Jay on Oct 25, 2007 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

Gutierrez looks to me like a legit major league outfielder. I think he has 25 home run potential and showed some signs of patience (not consistently, but at times). He reminds me of Devon White, more than anyone else, both as a fielder and as a hitter. Not great, but very good and a superior defender with good speed. Keep him and play him!

I also like Francisco, to be honest, but we haven't seen enough of him to know if he has a weakness. Gut has trouble with breaking balls, but I think he showed the ability to adjust. Anyway, the whole team has trouble with breaking balls, so he fits right in!

by peter m on Oct 25, 2007 11:23 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Gutierrez

That's what I don't like about this team. Our susceptibility to breaking pitches hurt us in the playoffs. With a patient approach we were able to sit on fastballs, and drive them all day long. Once we started chasing and allowing pitchers to get ahead in the count, well, they owned us.

extremely optimistic about next year

by gahnki on Oct 25, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

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