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Offseason trades??

by joecardsfan on Oct 26, 2007 10:40 AM EDT

Going into this offseason I think it's obvious the only way that we are going to acquire new players is via trades. There really are no FAs worth the money (or years) that make sense in this year's market for us.

That being said, I am curious to what you all think would be sensible trades? Obviously we have a surplus of OFs and I think we would all be OK with trading Lee in order to get something of value (and less expensive!!) - I know I would.

So what does LGT have to say about potential trades???

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Re: Offseason trades??

None needed unless someone calls Shapiro with an offer he can't refuse.

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 10:47 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I don't think this has been mentioned yet, but I think we should go after Jason Bay. Think about it. He's coming off a down year. Huntington is their GM. I mean, he might even be free.

by Brick. on Oct 26, 2007 11:14 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

You owe me a new computer monitor

by tabler84 on Oct 26, 2007 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Jason Bay for Free will be our LGTism of the offseason.

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

+1! And, if not free, then we can probably get him for Cliff Lee, Brad Komminsk, and a bucket of balls. I mean, everyone values Cliff Lee at 2005 levels! Everyone!

by tabler84 on Oct 26, 2007 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Well, he was the best left-handed pitcher in the game that year.

Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Oct 26, 2007 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Look how many WINS!!!!1!!onethousandonehundredeleven

by tabler84 on Oct 26, 2007 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

How about "FREE JASON BAY!" instead?

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Oct 26, 2007 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

That's much better. Let's go with that.

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Hell, they will probably pay some of Bay's contract and give us a prospect or two, as well. We just ask for the #38 Bay Combo Deal.

by joecardsfan on Oct 26, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

So is the general consensus that Bay just had an off year? Such a dramatic drop-off like that would make me nervous that something serious may have been bothering him. I guess if the price is right (aka Cliff Lee) it'd be worth a shot, but he could very well end up as another lameduck outfielder on the bench for us.

by Pronk33 on Oct 26, 2007 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

This might say a bit:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-fantasy-bust-of-the-year/

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I actually had that article in mind when I posted. Coincidentally, I drafted Bay for my fantasy team this year. Oops.

by Pronk33 on Oct 26, 2007 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I feel your pain. I opted not to keep Ordonez for this year in my keeper league.

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Shapiro will still sign some FAs this off season. They just won't be anyone on our radar (he's famous for this).

And even if he doesn't signa "medium-sized" name, there will be a few spring training invites/reclamation projects signed as well. This is how he does business.

by talonk on Oct 26, 2007 11:21 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

And I love it.

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I whole heartedly agree. And for the reasons you stated (off the radar, reclamation, etc) is why I dismissed free agents.

PS I love it too.

by joecardsfan on Oct 26, 2007 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

My only problem with trading Lee is that I would probably have to remove his quote from my signature on LGT.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Oct 26, 2007 12:04 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

It would be apt if we later beat him 1-0.

by nickjs21 on Oct 26, 2007 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

... and he made a similar comment in his post game interview.

Buy a clue Cliff - it's not HARD to win when you don't score ... it's quite IMPOSSIBLE to win when you don't score.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Oct 26, 2007 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I think this off-season will be a lot like our mid-season trades.

One minor one and not much else.

So, you might see a Lee/Marte/Barfield deal for a low A guy ... but nothing that will bear fruit next year.

As Wedge said .. the Tribe are in a unique situation for a team that has won 96 games. There are no real holes to fill or anyone leaving due to FA. So, it doesn't make much sense to start tinkering with a team that was one game away from the World Series.

by Toxicadam on Oct 26, 2007 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Yes, but a tremendous amount of luck plays its part in baseball. And how's that old saying go, about luck coming to those most prepared? The Tribe will be good next year if they do nothing. But it would be head-scratching if they didn't try to at least marginally improve or strengthen some aspect. We can't assume that another team--say, the Twins--won't improve.

by nickjs21 on Oct 26, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I'm preachin' this man....the twins will be good next year.

by hans on Oct 26, 2007 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Will they hit?

by JulioBernazard on Oct 27, 2007 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Well...they did make a push for Gary Sheffield last year. Shapiro will certainly explore his options.

On the flip side: we have some tradable pieces here. Blake would be a starting 3B for a few teams or RF. Michaels could snag us a reliever much the same way we received him for a reliever, BenFran, Barfield, any of the AAA OFs. Cliff Lee, Paul Byrd, Aaron Laffey. Trading pitching is always a tricky idea, but it could net you alot in return. Kelly Shoppach would be starting for a few teams. Ideally with Shoppach I would want to wait another year, till a guy like Torgas is ready to step in to be the back-up catcher.

What's to say that we don't package a few of these pieces to net us a power bat, SP, or stud closer?

by hans on Oct 26, 2007 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

The power bat idea, wasn't a need going into last season, but we can't assume Pronk comes back next season as '06 Pronk instead of '07 Pronk. If its the latter than we our offense is probably middle of the road as opposed to what it was in '06.

by hans on Oct 26, 2007 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I think Shapiro looked high and low for a right handed power bat before last season. There just wasn't one out there he could get.

I think the need continues into next season, but the likelihood of filling that spot remains the same.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Oct 26, 2007 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

agreed. But, I guess my remark is pointed more at some arguments on this site that going into this past season, getting that "power bat" was not a priority because of the offensive performance from '06. Which I agreed with at the time, as none of us forsaw Pronk tanking it this year. Now I think it would be wise to look for an upgrade if available...

but I do agree that the likelyhood of this occuring (while not getting ripped off) is small.

by hans on Oct 26, 2007 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Hans,

This is going to sound nit-picky, but I'd use different language to describe Pronk. Even simply saying "tanking" has a different connotation than "tanking it."

But I agree with your point on avoiding complacency. I think Shapiro is going to explore the options, and I'm confident that if there is a move to be made, he'll do it.

by tabler84 on Oct 26, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

point taken. I'd rephrase it by simply saying he dropped 61 points in OPS+. Thats a pretty steep drop. To compare the drop, look at Casey Blake, he had a 114 OPS+ in 2006. Imagine if he dropped 61 points, that would leave him with a 53 OPS+. I understand that Pronk's OPS+ of 118 is still above league avg., but its still 61 points less than last year, and that is forcing other players to go beyond their typical performances (and abilities) to make that up, and that did not happen.

He's posted OPS+ of:

162, 168, 179, 118

in the last four years, he's in many ways carried the offense from league avg. to one of the best in the league, until last season.

by hans on Oct 27, 2007 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions

LOOK INTO TRADING C.C SABATHIA!

Reasons to atleast think about trading C.C:

C.C will want or should get a contract similar to that which Barry Zito received from the Giants. We can't afford it and Shapiro's team is reluctant to commit more than 16% of the teams salary to one player (source: Plain Dealer, article on DiamondView).
Revenue sharing has allowed small market teams to hold on their top talent for longer than was customary in the 90's. Consequently, it is almost impossible for teams to find a C.C Sabathia or a Johan Santana on the free agent market these days. For example, the Braves traded for Tim Hudson, the Red Sox traded for Josh Beckett and the Cardinals traded for Mulder (ok, that didn't pan out). Big market teams can no longer afford to wait for free agency to snag the next big ticket item. Chances are, their rivals will take a one-year rental on top talent and sign the free agent-to-be to an extension.
Westbrook, Hafner, Martinez, Sizemore and PEralta are all signed to long term contracts and their salaries are set to exert some major pressure on team finances 3 or 4 years down the road.

by crazymoloh on Oct 26, 2007 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

Re: LOOK INTO TRADING C.C SABATHIA!

I wonder how they arrive at 16%. That number just seems random.

Gator fans have so much in common with Yankee fans. Minus the history and championships, of course.

by gahnki on Oct 26, 2007 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: LOOK INTO TRADING C.C SABATHIA!

They looked at championship teams over the last 20 years and found that not a single team with one player making more than 1/6 th of the team's payroll won the world series.

by crazymoloh on Oct 26, 2007 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: LOOK INTO TRADING C.C SABATHIA!

gracias

Gator fans have so much in common with Yankee fans. Minus the history and championships, of course.

by gahnki on Oct 26, 2007 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I'm just going to throw out a "creative" idea: a deal centered around Dellucci for Millwood. Both guys would return to the place they've had their most recent success, and both guys have interesting contracts. If part of the deal involved the Rangers paying his bonus money, considering Dellucci's deal a "sunk cost" would mean that we'd be paying Millwood a reasonable amount to be a #3 starter. I have a little scenario that I think makes a lot of sense...maybe I'll post it at some point.

by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Oct 26, 2007 8:33 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Not to rehash old moves, cause I wouldn't, but I kind of like the idea. Millwood could have easily sucked in the playoffs as bad as CC or Fausto, but it would have been due to ability as opposed to complete mental collapse (or "choking").

by hans on Oct 27, 2007 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I've come up with a good guideline for figuring out who Shapiro will acquire this offseason.

First, think of who you would really like. An obvious candidate.

OK, it's not that guy.

by nickjs21 on Oct 26, 2007 8:37 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Then, imagine how many games you expected the team to win after the '06 offseason.

Then compare to the team's '07 win total.

Less than 96? Congrats, you're another pessimistic, cranky Indians fan.

by Voltaire on Oct 26, 2007 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Not really, unless the Indians continue to improve this offseason you will see a regression not unlike we saw in 06 from 05. We had some major things go right for us this year that you couldn't predict that allowed us to win 96 games. I would be interested to see what the run differential formula had us winning.

My wish list. Jhonny Peralta to 3rd Cabrera to SS and go get Jason Bay. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Oct 26, 2007 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

According to Baseball Reference, our Pythagorean W/L was 91-71. So we finished 5 games up.

I do believe that was our first positive Pythogorean finish in a few years.

-11
-3
-1
-5
+2

Note that 2002 was Charlie's last year. So this is the first year Wedge has finished with a positive Pythag.

by talonk on Oct 27, 2007 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

There is actually a pretty good argument the Indians under-achieved in terms of raw production.

Even if we do nothing, we'll be projected to improve offensively at six positions (2B, 1B, LF, CF, RF and DH) and to decline only at catcher. You'll see when PECOTA comes out in February. And there were some flukey things in the numbers, too, like Sizemore doing poorly when there were no outs, which probably cost us 20 runs.

We all felt that Byrd's 2007 was significantly better than 2006, but the truth is that after some late-season blowups, 2007 wasn't really more than 5% better than 2006 for him, on the whole.

What else went right/wrong in the rotation? Westbrook's early season struggles, Sowers and Lee totally collapsing. Seems to me that those more or less cancelled out Sabathia's strong-than-expected season and Carmona's surprise-ace act. On balance, we basically got the rotation we expected, just maybe not the way we expected it.

Next year? Sabathia and Carmona should all be expected to regress a bit, Byrd gets a year older, but we should expect improvement in the other two spots, and our depth protects us from an outright collapse.

Bullpen? Not better than expected on the whole. We had a few surprises, and they will all regress, but we also had huge numbers of blowouts and failures. We ended up with three great relievers, but only after auditioning 15. Volatility rules the day for bullpens, but we didn't overachieve there this year.

by Jay on Oct 27, 2007 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Exactly Jay. We did not have a great year across the board either offensively or in pitching. Baseball stats don't equal wins and losses directly. The '06 team was better than their record and '07 was probably worse than their's. The difference was that the AL Central as a whole wasn't as strong this year and the Tribe had the best record in the league in it own division. Nothing ever happens in a vacuum. I don't think we can count on repeats of this season from DET, MIN, and CHI. Somebody will bounce back. Hopefully some of our guys will too.

by rick57 on Oct 27, 2007 3:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

nate silver (creator of PECOTA) already loves this 2008 team

What They Should Do: Hold. This team is loaded. With all the young talent either in stock or on the way, the Indians could not spend a dollar in the free agent market and PECOTA out at 96-98 wins next spring. The key decision is really whether to re-sign Sabathia now or wait until next winter to make a choice, which mostly boils down to just what his asking price is. Now, the one worry is that attendance has been a little sluggish, and you could argue for one strike into the free agent market to put the proverbial ornament on the Christmas tree. But the Indians might be good enough that they don't need to do that, and attendance should pick up anyway after their deep postseason run this year. The options for Byrd and Borowski should probably be exercised, however, given how expensive pitching will be this winter.

What They Will Do: Hold. It wouldn't surprise me if the Indians sign a left fielder if something relatively cheap falls into their laps, but otherwise Mark Shapiro should be able to catch up on his sleep this winter.

by 7foot3 on Oct 27, 2007 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

If I was married to Shap's wife, I'd try NOT to sleep at all this winter ;)

by JulioBernazard on Oct 27, 2007 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Woah now. I don't think anyone has ever accused me of being pessimistic or cranky. I was one of the guys being chided in August for ganging up on the downers around here.

What I'm saying is that Shapiro doesn't make moves we expect. So since the two most talked-about candidates for a trade are Jason Bay and Chris Duncan, it would stand to reason that they will not be on our team in 08.

Nixon, Dellucci, Josh Barfield, Aaron Fultz, etc. How many of these did any of us call? Especially Barfield. That's what I was getting at: Predicting offseason moves by the Indians FO is a fool's errand.

And for the record, I picked the Tribe to win the division in 07. I can back this up if I can find those poll diaries we did.

by nickjs21 on Oct 27, 2007 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

My bad. I interpreted your statement as pessimistic when you were just being happily realistic. I apologize.

by Voltaire on Oct 27, 2007 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Inflection on the Internet is a tricky thing.

by nickjs21 on Oct 27, 2007 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I know. Usually I do a pretty good job of reading people correctly, but clearly here I screwed up.

And of course, I completely agree that any predicted move is virtually guaranteed not to happen. I think the only move we ever saw coming was Lofton.

by Voltaire on Oct 27, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Even then there was a lot of doubting.

Gator fans have so much in common with Yankee fans. Minus the history and championships, of course.

by gahnki on Oct 27, 2007 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Time will tell if the Barfield deal works out but at this point he looks to have been robbed.

My wish list. Jhonny Peralta to 3rd Cabrera to SS and go get Jason Bay. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Oct 27, 2007 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

you see, E5, this is perfectly fine statement. You are right, Barfield has been terrible and Kouz on the other hand was a serviceable 3B with an OPS+ of 109. Compared to Josh's OPS+ of 54....yeah for this "one year" of the trade, you can say Shapiro got the worse end by far.

by hans on Oct 27, 2007 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

no doubt barfield sucked, but i wouldn't call it a complete fleece regardless of what happens going forward. you can't ignore need. we needed a 2B and Barfield held down the fort well enough on a team that won lots of games till an internal alternative could be found. and with marte (and blake) we didn't need kouz, even if he turns out way better than the others. i personally still think marte has more upside.

And look at how bad Giles was. i think they just bought him out and released him too. while shapiro didn't do great getting bafield, i'm not sure what else was out there where he could have done better (money considered) and he had to do something.

by Brick. on Oct 28, 2007 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I understand the reasons behind making the trade, and I don't question those. I still support the trade. But, your point is starting to boarder on supporting Shapiro in a case, where there is no need to support him. He made the right move, but the results have indicated (so far anyways) that he received the worse player regardless of position. You can't put a bow on this at this point. It was a move that more than likely needed to be made, and was an appropriate move, but has not worked out to this point, plain and simple.

By your logic, you could say that Seattle didn't get fleeced by us when we traded them Perez for AsCab, because their need at the time was for immediate offense at the ML level, and AsCab was blocked in AAA. Its ok to admit when we take one over another team, but we also have to admit when one doesn't work out for us. We can't get 'em all!

by hans on Oct 28, 2007 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

actually i think you can say that to some extent. i tire at looking at every trade in hindsight and saying this gm or that blew that deal. yeah yeah, the tigers should have kept jonh smoltz. but at the time, the trade served their means so it is at least semi-justified regardless of the eventual ends. the situation AT the time of the trade cannot be igonerd, be it shapiro, bavasi or anyone.

by Brick. on Oct 28, 2007 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

igonerd, what a great word.

Gator fans have so much in common with Yankee fans. Minus the history and championships, of course.

by gahnki on Oct 28, 2007 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I think there's a valid point to this, but the AstroCab and Barfield deals differed in the expected return. Barfield, whatever his faults, was a major league second baseman with a solid season under his belt, and nobody felt we overpaid for him at the time. On the other hand, everybody said the Mariners overpaid for Perez.

by Jay on Oct 28, 2007 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

That may be true, but at the time of the deal AsCab offered SEA no impact in regards to what their ML team was doing that year. Perez had a OPS+ of 146 with Cleveland at the time of the trade. So granted they gave up an amount of talent that was subjectively viewed as "overpaying" in AsCab, but they were taking on a player that would better allow them to make that push (they believed they had a shot at it at that time) for the playoffs, the goal of each team in the league.

In any case, I'm not arguing that the Indians shouldn't have made the trade for Barfield. I support why the trade was made till this day. But, I am supporting E5's contention that in regards to the 2007 season, one could make a statement that would indicate that Shapiro received the worse player in the trade, and thats ok! He's not going to get it right every time, and he may still get this right in the end if Barfield bounces back. For as much as I detest E5's constant bashing of the FO and owner, I dislike Shapiro/Dolan apologisting (yeah I know its not a word).

by hans on Oct 28, 2007 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

"...one could make a statement that would indicate that Shapiro received the worse player in the trade..."

what's the point in that? you can niether ignore the situation or the need. in a vacuum kouz is better than barfield. who cares?

"I dislike Shapiro/Dolan apologisting..."

If that's the brush you're paining me with, it's the worng one and it's presumptuous.

I'm 'apologisting' the evaluation of any deal in a vacuum.

by Brick. on Oct 28, 2007 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

I want to apologize for the way I wrote it, I did not mean to paint you as an "apologist". In my mind, I was thinking of what an opposite of a "basher" would be.

I enjoy your input as much as anyone else's.

by hans on Oct 28, 2007 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

i didn't think so, but i wanted to make sure. i try not (in general) take anything to one extreme or the other with stuff like this. which is exactly why i got on this issue. i don't think it's a black and white thing.

however as an OT sidenote, i will admit i have over the last year leaned on the side of the fence of defending wedge..... probably as much from a devil's advocate to the haters view as anything, but also because man, i like the way he approaches things in general.

by Brick. on Oct 28, 2007 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

But to your other point, we can't simply limit ourselves to thinking that if Barfield wasn't aquired we would have a gaping hole in 2B without a player to play the position. Sure Kouz wouldn't have played 2B. But, we would assume that Shapiro would have filled the position with a warm body that would more than likely put up at least as good (yuck. or as bad really) numbers as Barfield put up.

...and I still stand by Shapiro making this trade, but its ok if it hasn't worked out yet. I can't look at those OPS+ numbers and even call this trade fair at this point. its ok, we'll see what happens next year and beyond.

by hans on Oct 28, 2007 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

most definitely. would love to know what his plans b, c and d where (presuming barfield became plan A as soon as it presented itself)

by Brick. on Oct 28, 2007 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Second basemen are hard to come by. We would have talked to Giles and possibly re-signed Belliard, who ended up desperate for a decent gig by March. Barring those options, we're looking at Luna or Rivas breaking camp with the team.

by Jay on Oct 28, 2007 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Weirdly, it's entirely possible that Luna or Rivas may have equaled Barfield's eventual production. But we all (or at least myself) would have been apoplectic.

by NickFantana on Oct 31, 2007 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Yes, entirely possible. But I think they would have faced a revolt in the pitching staff if Belliard had been allowed to play second again.

by Jay on Oct 31, 2007 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Offseason trades??

Well yeah thats my "theoretical" point. Barfield played so poorly that Shapiro's "plan B" would struggle to do worse. Thats not Shapiro's fault, its Barfield's for performing atrociously and markedly worse than his previous year. Volatility of youth, I guess.

by hans on Oct 31, 2007 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions

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