Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

by fingolfin on Oct 8, 2007 1:10 PM EDT Comment 49 comments

This is my first diary, thanks for reading. You can argue over whether CC or Byrd should start, but the fact is that Byrd is going to be the one. The bigger question is what to do if Byrd starts to look shaky (but not terrible) in the early innings. Let's say it's the 4th inning, Byrd has given up about 3 runs, and doesn't look very sharp at all. What is the best option?

Poll

If Byrd is shaky around the 4th inning, Wedge should:

Go straight to a Circle of Trust-er

59 votes

Do something else (Carmona for 1-2 innings?)

1 votes

Leave him in a little bit longer

2 votes

Bring in Laffey

53 votes

Bring in CC (Carmona would start Game 5)

13 votes

128 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 49 comments

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Comments

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Circle of Trust FTW. If Byrd can give me 4, I'll gladly use Raffy's 2 innings a piece and maybe sprinkle in some Jensen. Recipe for ALCS.

by ASP on Oct 8, 2007 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I think the benchmark tonight for Byrd would be 5 innings 3 runs.

That would be excellent if he could pull that off.

Also, if the game is close, I'd be hesitant to let the Byrd have a third round through the Yankees lineup.

by mikebrowns26 on Oct 8, 2007 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

i voted for laffey. i didn't see an option for "flee aman for middle-earth, crossing the ice floes of helcaraxe, past the gates of angband to settle finally on the shores of lake mithrim."

by emil minty on Oct 8, 2007 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Well, I made a point to say this is if Byrd looks only shaky. If he decides to slay his kinsmen and set fire to the ships, then we're pretty much screwed. =)

by fingolfin on Oct 8, 2007 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Innings 1-3:

- Yankees lead 4 runs or greater; Pull Byrd for C.C

Innings 3-5:

- Yankees lead 3 runs or greater; Pull Byrd for C.C or Jensen

Innings 6-9:

- Byrd should not be pitching unless he has a lead of 2 grand slams.

Bottom Line: PULL BYRD BEFORE THE GAME GETS OUT OF HAND!

tool noun 1. LeBron James 2. an implement used in the practice of a vocation

by crazymoloh on Oct 8, 2007 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I'd like Wedge to view the game as a must-win. Pull out all the stops. Watch footage of Game 2 in the Red Sox-Angels series. Francona pulled his #2 starter out of the game in 5th inning in the hope of keeping the deficit to only 1-run (2-3). This was his #2 starter!!!! We clearly didn't have the cajones to put our #3 on a short leash. We'd better keep our #4 on one!!!!

tool noun 1. LeBron James 2. an implement used in the practice of a vocation

by crazymoloh on Oct 8, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I disagree somewhat. What is must win is the series. Obviously we do that by winning games. But the fact that this isn't actually a must win game for us should give us a tactical advantage from the perspective of the series as a whole. That's less true today than it was yesterday, and it doesn't mean you just blow off a game, but you can make decisions that give your team a better chance of winning the series. The Yankees had to use Joba and Rivera last night, even though they had a pretty safe lead. That's put them at somewhat of a disadvantage going into tonight's game because they were forced into those choices last night.

by APV on Oct 8, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

...but you can make decisions that give your team a better chance of winning the series.

Can you give me an example of what you're talking about? The fact that Tuesday is an off day means that their best relievers aren't going to pitch more than two days consecutively. Plus, we used our closer yesterday!!! There is almost no need to protect relievers in the playoffs (assuming they are limited to 1 inning or 25 pitches).

The Yankees had to use Joba and Rivera last night, even though they had a pretty safe lead. That's put them at somewhat of a disadvantage going into tonight's game because they were forced into those choices last night.

So today Joba goes 1 inning, Mariano goes 2 innings. Some disadvantage.

tool noun 1. LeBron James 2. an implement used in the practice of a vocation

by crazymoloh on Oct 8, 2007 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

The fact that tomorrow is an off-day means we can probably use anyone tonight, with the possible exception of Lewis, without hesitation. I like the decision to use JoBo last night. He hadn't pitched yet in the series. Giving him some work means he shouldn't be coming into a game rusty. He's pitched back to back outings numerous occasions, so it shouldn't be a problem. Had we been down in the series or even going into last night's game we would have had to brought in the Raffies as soon as Westbrook lost it. Perez has already gone 4 innings in the series, had he pitched two last night it would have given him 6. That total probably would have limited either his usage or effectiveness going into tonight's game. We didn't have to do that meaning tonight, we should have a full set of options coming out of the bullpen, with the expectation of all of them being at peak performance, with the possible exception of Lewis. I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees use Joba tonight, but I would be surprised if he's at his best.

by APV on Oct 8, 2007 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

In other words, we are heading into game 4 (and a possible game 5) with no limitations in how we choose to use our pitchers or the performances we can expect out of them. That's not true for the Yankees.

by APV on Oct 8, 2007 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

And how is that not true for the Yankees. You just said you liked that we used Borowski (I agree on this, btw). Well, they used Rivera. So Joba is possibly limited to an inning. Big deal. Rivera should have no problem going two. So is your contention that the 1 inning limitation on Joba is what constitutes their disadvantage?

tool noun 1. LeBron James 2. an implement used in the practice of a vocation

by crazymoloh on Oct 8, 2007 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Basically, yeah. So far Joba's gone 3.2 IP, Rivera's gone 3, and for both of them that's all in the past three days. For us, Perez has gone 4 (although none since Friday), Betancourt's gone 1, Lewis has gone 2, and Borowski's gone 1. Also, they've used their emergency starter (Hughes) twice, which I think would pretty much rule him out at least for tonight. I just think we have a relatively greater number of options we can expect to perform well.

by APV on Oct 8, 2007 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Ok. Makes sense. Still, any advantage we get from having limited Joba to one inning is negated by the huge disadvantage we face in terms of starting pitching.

Also, earlier you were talking about having an advantage over the duration of the series. Well, its quite apparent to me that we have a bigger advantage with (C.C Game 4; Carmona Game 5) than (Byrd Game 4; C.C Game 5).

tool noun 1. LeBron James 2. an implement used in the practice of a vocation

by crazymoloh on Oct 8, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

That's quite possible with the starting pitching. I'm not sure where I come down on the 3 days rest thing. I swear I've read stuff about it before, but a quick google search didn't yield anything productive.

I think you can view it this way, though. A fully-rested CC is better than anything the Yankees have. A fully rested Carmona is better than anything the Yankees have. CC on 3 days rest is an uncertainty (just as Wang is on 3 days rest). A fully-rested Byrd is average. He's not so bad we can't possibly win. He's not so good we stand a great chance of winning. Given that in either scenario you have a preferred game 5 matchup (either a fully rested CC or a fully rested Carmona), I think you could argue for either way. I think I'd tend to prefer the CC/Carmona combo...but were we to win, that wouldn't set us up very well for the ALCS. What we're doing with Byrd, if you take it as about equally likely to give us the series, sets us up a lot better for the next.

by APV on Oct 8, 2007 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

A fully-rested CC is better than anything the Yankees have.

Not as confident as you are about that assertion. C.C had a case of the nerves in Game 1. We're lucky he didn't implode. Posada really helped us out there.

I don't think its even close between C.C on 3 days and Byrd well rested. #1 Our offense gets back Garko. #2 C.C doesn't have to have his best stuff to keep us in the game. Byrd doesn't really have stuff.

Theoretically, we only need 4 innings from C.C. Jensen and the Raffies should be able to give us 4 innings in the worst case.

tool noun 1. LeBron James 2. an implement used in the practice of a vocation

by crazymoloh on Oct 8, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Dude, when we win this tonight, you will be very happy it is Sabathia/Carmona matching up against Beckett/Dice-K.

by fleerdon on Oct 8, 2007 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I'm more of a 'worry about today, today' kind of person.

Here's another thing. It really doesn't matter if we start out with C.C/Carmona or Westbrook/Byrd (except from a psychological point). C.C and Carmona will get 4 starts in the series on normal rest regardless!!!!

tool noun 1. LeBron James 2. an implement used in the practice of a vocation

by crazymoloh on Oct 8, 2007 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Yes, but only if it goes seven, that is.

by Jay on Oct 8, 2007 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

In the last three days (Games 2 & 3):
Chamberlain - 63 pitches
Rivera - 48 pitches

If Joba pitches at all, he is not going to be at the top of his game. And Rivera's work is roughly the equivalent of an inning a day for three days. Can he really go two more today? Again, he won't be at his best if he does.

by fingolfin on Oct 8, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

You know what would be cool? If we had one more dynamite reliever who could go 2 innings. We could get 8 innings out of the Raffies, Lewis and this 4th dynamite reliever...... If wishes were horses.

tool noun 1. LeBron James 2. an implement used in the practice of a vocation

by crazymoloh on Oct 8, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

If Byrd is looking shaky, this must mean that the game is tight: ergo, a high leverage situation. There is only one place to turn in this case - The Circle of Trust.

If the lead is 4 or more runs, I bring in Laffey for an inning. If not, I wait to see how the game progresses. If the Tribe can take advantage of the NYY bullpen, then I go outside of the circle.

by Spidey on Oct 8, 2007 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

If Byrd gets into trouble, then we craft for Aaron Laffey a gemstone bearing the light of the Two Trees of Valinor, which will empower him to finish the game for the good guys.

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Oct 8, 2007 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Only one? I figured three. Not sure what to do with the other two, but that probably won't be an issue. Right?

by fleerdon on Oct 8, 2007 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I'm not sure where all the pro-Laffey sentiment comes from.

He's got a 4.56 ERA. Granted, better in the last four starts, but still. His peripherals are weak.

And he pitched almost entirely against teams that can't hit. Six starts against the worst-hitting three teams in the league (Royals, Twins, White Sox), and three starts against average-hitting teams (Angels and Mariners). Zero starts against any good offenses.

If he put up just-okay numbers against those teams, why shouldn't we expect him to get manhandled by the Yankees?

by Jay on Oct 8, 2007 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I suspect it's because Laffey is a lefty sinkerballer. The Yankees problems with lefthanders are at least verifiable (see Rob Neyer's article on ESPN, where he says the following:

"The Yankees destroy right-handed pitching. Against lefties -- and by the way, Sabathia is a lefty -- the Yankees are quite mortal; against left-handed pitchers this season, they slugged .427, just four points higher than league average.

Against right-handers, though?

.487"

Neyer is arguing that the Tribe should start Sabathia, but Laffey is a lefty, and at least the lefty-right splits favor him if Byrd gets into trouble extremely early.

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Oct 8, 2007 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Okay, that's a good point. Maybe we'll see it.

by Jay on Oct 8, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I'm surprised that Neyer -- a shrewd guy with stats, and very interested in pitch count -- is arguing to throw a guy on short rest who has only done it once in his career.

by JulioBernazard on Oct 8, 2007 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Byrd's penchant for getting whacked is factored into Neyer's analysis. I'm guessing.

tool noun 1. LeBron James 2. an implement used in the practice of a vocation

by crazymoloh on Oct 8, 2007 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

And the point goes to Jay....

tool noun 1. LeBron James 2. an implement used in the practice of a vocation

by crazymoloh on Oct 8, 2007 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Funny, now I find myself oddly hoping to see Laffey tonight. But I'd rather close out the series than test the theory.

by Jay on Oct 8, 2007 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

fingo is talking about the 4th inning, though. if byrd is shaky, and we're down runs, i don't think we burn our circle for 6 innings. in this situation, we're talking about laffey or mastny. and like you said re choosing between CC and Fisto for game 5: they're about the same, so you go with the lefty.

by emil minty on Oct 8, 2007 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Also! a good point.

by Jay on Oct 8, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

"Fingo?" I read it as "F'n Golfin'".

by fleerdon on Oct 8, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I hope Byrd and Shoppach both have great games to send a big "F you" to Indians fans, Yankee fans, and analysts alike.

by ASP on Oct 8, 2007 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Nice user name. Tolkien fan, I take it?

by Pronktastic on Oct 8, 2007 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Yeah. Apparently I completely underestimated the number of dorks here on LGT. Just yet another reason to love this site.

by fingolfin on Oct 8, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Memorizing the tragic tale of the House of Feanor is dorky?

News to me.

by Pronktastic on Oct 8, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I have to admit that I have very little idea what you are talking about.

Dealing with it.

by fwembt on Oct 8, 2007 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Give Byrd the shortest of leashes, score a half dozen, and draw the circle. We're moving on.

by homelytourist on Oct 8, 2007 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I think we'll all feel a lot better if the tribe can score at least once in the top of the first. Having Byrd start with the lead would, at least, feel really nice.

- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Oct 8, 2007 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Unless it's a total blowout in either direction, Betancourt should go two innnings tonight, and Perez should get at least one.

by Kos on Oct 8, 2007 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

Finally, a vote to keep Byrd in the game! Do we have a Yankees fan on the board?

All of this depends in large part on the score of the game, doesn't it?

by Spidey on Oct 8, 2007 3:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I've been thinking and I like the idea of going with CC after Byrd for a couple of/3 innings. This way he doesn't work too hard, provides a nice bridge for the Rafies/Lewis and (I know better than to do this) sets him up nicely to start game 2 of the ALCS.

I also think you have to play this game like the series is tied up 2-2. The last thing you ever want is for it to actually end up tied at 2-2, even if we go back to Cleveland. I do not want a game 5 on Wednesday.

Apparently headed towards a solid 2nd and 3rd in the LGT Fantasy Leagues. Eh...

by mjmarble on Oct 8, 2007 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

All of this depends on the score and in-game situation. But, I prefer to think that Game 5 needs to be played like it is tied 2-2 (not Game 4). Therefore, I will feel more comfortable with my two aces available to pitch at any time.

Since Fausto has the experience of pitching from the bullpen, I think he should on the bench to start the game (CC as starter), ready to enter at a moment's notice.

No need to force the must-win panic button until it is absolutely necessary. What if we use Byrd and CC tonight and we lose 5-4 on a freak call in the 7th inning. Then, we would lose any advantage (except homefield) on Wednesday.

by Spidey on Oct 8, 2007 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: If Byrd gets into trouble, then what?

I finally found someone who likes the decision to start Byrd in game 4. Joe Sheehan over at baseball prospectus thinks it is the right decision. http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6806

Of course, Joe Sheehan is also a Yankees fan.

by oxforddave on Oct 8, 2007 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs