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TRADE RESOURCE (2008 Impact, Organizational Depth, Future Payroll)

For a quick reference on questions like.....

... how many more runs could the tribe score with Miguel Cabrera at 3B instead of Blake?

... do we have sufficient depth at the minor league level to trade away a cost controlled outfielder?

... what kind of damage would taking on Brian Roberts' salary do to the Indians?

2008 IMPACT:

Source: The Hardball Times

Runs Created By Position Players:

Note #1: Runs created estimates for players are based on a 3 year average unless otherwise noted.
Note #2: For each player for where the estimate is based on a 3 year average, the player in question did not miss significant time to injury during any one of the years.

  1. Sizemore - 118
  2. Cabrera* - 95 (prorated 2007 RC for 650 plate appearance)
  3. Hafner - 111
  4. Martinez - 101
  5. Garko* - 75 (added 3 RC to 2007 total to account for bench role in April 2007)
  6. Peralta - 82
  7. Dellucci/Michaels* - 90 (based on 3 year average of the platoon members' splits)
  8. Blake - 63
  9. Gutierrez* - 75 (prorated 2007 RC for 650 PAs and downward adjusted by 3 RC)
Each major league team can expect its hitters to come up to the plate around 6200 times in a given year. The average number of plate appearances per player listed above is around 650. This leaves 350PAs unaccounted for. Assuming the Indians' bench performs at a rate only marginally better than Josh Barfield, we can expect the bench in this hypothetical scenario to create 40 runs of offense.

Runs Scored in 2008 - 850

Runs Allowed By Pitching Staff

I really had no idea on how to estimate runs allowed by the pitching staff. ERAs and innings pitched vary by a wide margin from year to year. The one quantity that seemed to vary less than others was FIP. Now, how valuable FIP is at estimating actual performance, I don't know. Out of ideas, I decided to use a pitcher's FIP anyway. Where possible, I used a 3 year average of the player's FIP and calculated the earned runs against. I also tacked on 0.30 runs to the FIP to account for unearned runs given up by the pitcher. For example, from 2005-2007, Sabathia had an average FIP of about 3.45. Adding on the 0.30 to this total gave me a runs against average of 3.75 for Sabathia. I pulled the innings pitched estimates for the starters out of thin air too.

Finally, with the bullpen, I simply assumed that they pitched the remaining innings to get the pitching staff up to a total of 1465 innings for the season (which is about average). Since the bullpen is essentially the same as the one from last year and since they had an ERA of 3.73 for the season, I assumed that they could be counted on for an earned run average of 4.00 in 2008. Tacking on the 0.30 runs against to account for errors and the like, I estimated that the Tribe bullpen would surrender 4.30 run against per nine innings over the course of the season.  

  1. Sabathia [ 210 IP x (3.45+0.30)RA ] = 87.5
  2. Carmona [ 210 IP x (4.00+0.30)RA ] = 100.3
  3. Westbrook [ 200 IP x (4.10+0.30)RA ] = 97.7
  4. Byrd [ 190IP x (4.55+0.30)RA ] = 102.4
  5. #5 Starter [ 190IP x (5.00+0.30)RA ] = 111.9
  6. Bullpen [ 465IP x (4.00+0.30)RA ] = 222.2
Runs Allowed in 2008 - 720
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ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH (AAA, AA and A+ levels)

I won't claim to have any skill at identifying prospects. What I hope do add in this section is simply add a list of minor league players who meet certain thresholds. The bar is set a little low since players are assessed solely on their minor league numbers.

Performance Thresholds:

  • Position Players - .750 OPS or higher
  • Pitchers - 1.40 WHIP or lower
  • Age Limits (met performance threshold in either 2006 or 2007 at the below ages or younger):
  • Kinston - 22 years or younger
  • Akron - 23 year or younger
  • Buffalo - 24 year or younger
  • Catchers:
    no prospects

    First Basemen / Outfielders
    Ben Francisco, OF (AAA)
    Shin-Soo Choo, OF (AAA)
    Trevor Crowe, OF (AA)
    Jordan Brown, 1B/OF (AA)
    Stephen Head, 1B (AA)
    Beau Mills, 1B/3B (A+)

    Middle Infielders
    Josh Rodriguez, SS (A+)

    Third Basemen
    Andy Marte, 3B (AAA)
    Wes Hodges, 3B (A+)
    Jared Goedert, 3B (A+)

    Pitchers
    Sean Smith, SP (AAA)
    Jeremy Sowers, SP (AAA)
    Aaron Laffey, SP (AAA)
    Adam Miller, SP (AAA)
    Ed Mujica, RP (AAA)
    Shawn Nottingham, SP (AA)
    Chuck Lofgren, SP (AA)
    Scott Lewis, SP (AA)
    Jeff Stevens, RP (AA)
    Erik Stiller, RP (A+)
    David Huff, SP (A+)
    Josh Tomlin, SP (A+)
    .
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    PLAYER SALARY PICTURE (2008 - 2011)

    Source: Cot's Baseball Contracts

    Note #1: `Salary Commitments' does not include players who are being paid on a year-by-year basis, either at the major league minimum or through arbitration.

    Note #2: ‘Core players’ refers to the 22 following players – Catchers (Martinez, Shoppach) / Infielders (Garko, Barfield, Cabrera, Peralta, Blake) / Outfielders (Dellucci, Michaels, Sizemore, Gutierrez) / Designated Hitters (Hafner) / Starting Pitchers (Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook, Byrd, Lee) / Relievers (Betancourt, Perez, Lewis, Borowski, Fultz)

    2008
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • Salary Commitments: $46.20M
  • Options: $13.00M (Paul Byrd / Joe Borowski / Aaron Fultz)
  • Maximum Commitments: $59.20M
  • Arbitration Eligible (2): Casey Blake / Rafael Betancourt
  • Free Agents (0): none
  • Core players left - 22/22
  • 2009
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • Salary Commitments: $44.95M
  • Options: $2.60M (Jason Michaels)
  • Maximum Commitments: $47.55M
  • Arbitration Eligible (1): Rafael Betancourt
  • Free Agents (5): C.C Sabathia / Paul Byrd / Casey Blake / Joe Borowski / Aaron Fultz
  • Core players left - 17/22
  • 2010
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • Salary Commitments: $32.70M
  • Options: $15.00M (Victor Martinez / Cliff Lee)
  • Maximum Commitments: $47.70M
  • Arbitration Eligible (6): Fausto Carmona / Ryan Garko / Franklin Gutierrez / Kelly Shoppach / Josh Barfield
  • Free Agents (3): Rafael Betancourt / David Dellucci / Jason Michaels
  • Core players left - 14/22
  • 2011
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • Salary Commitments: $20.50M
  • Options: $7.00M (Jhonny Peralta)
  • Maximum Commitments: $27.50M
  • Arbitration Eligible (8): Fausto Carmona / Ryan Garko / Franklin Gutierrez / Kelly Shoppach / Josh Barfield / Asdrubal Cabrera / Jensen Lewis
  • Free Agents (3): Victor Martinez / Jake Westbrook / Cliff Lee
  • Core players left - 11/22
  • ** THERE ARE BOUND TO BE MISTAKES APLENTY. FEEL FREE TO ADD ANY CORRCTIONS OR CRITICISMS.
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