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Scouting Fukudome

by Pronk33 on Nov 14, 2007 7:18 PM EST Comment 25 comments

Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome filed for free agency this week and since left field has been a hot topic around here lately, I thought it would be worth a look. Fukudome is the best Japanese FA this off-season and has drawn some interest from teams already. I basically did a big compilation of Fukudome's stats, style, and a few of the rumors floating around.

Here's the link to the post: http://ontariostreet.blogspot.com/2007/11/scouting-fukudome_14.html

(As far as I could tell from the ground rules, posting a diary via a blog link is kosher, but let me know if it isn't.)

Do you guys think Fukudome would be worth the effort or the potential investment? Would you prefer Jason Bay, Fukudome, or the players we have now?

0 recs | Comment 25 comments

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Comments

Re: Scouting Fukudome

I'll definitely read the post, but my initial reaction:

I like Fukudome more than I think some others do. However, if it's true that the Cubs are the frontrunners, I don't think we have a great chance of signing him.

by nickjs21 on Nov 14, 2007 7:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

I realize that Fukudome wouldn't cost prospects/players, but I'd much rather take a flier on Jason Bay or Carlos Quentin (if the price is right). Plus, we have outfield depth at all levels (Dellucci/Michaels in ML, Francisco/Choo in AAA, Brown/Crowe in AA and Weglarz in A).

Why waste the money on an outfielder who will be 31 years old in 2008 and who could possibly need a year or two to adjust to baseball in America?

by crazymoloh on Nov 14, 2007 7:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

I agree. Of the names you mention, Jordan Brown is one of the most interesting to me. It would be amazing if he won his third MVP award in a row at the AAA level and returned to the OF to play LF for Cleveland.

by kov on Nov 14, 2007 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

if you put a roof on fenway we could call it the fukUdome.

by Brick. on Nov 14, 2007 8:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

lmao

Onto the actual post.

I think that Fukodome is out of our price range. He might get as high as 15 mil a year.

I just had surgery on my labrum so please excuse the typing errors.

by gahnki on Nov 14, 2007 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

If a bidding war ensues that is.

I just had surgery on my labrum so please excuse the typing errors.

by gahnki on Nov 14, 2007 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

which it will

by world dictator on Nov 14, 2007 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

No bidding war allowed...you made a blind post and the top post gets exclusive rights. Right? Same deal and Dice was...

by Tribe Alive on Nov 14, 2007 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

Oh really? I thought that since he was a free agent in Japan and there was no posting fee he just entered MLB FA like anyone else.

by world dictator on Nov 15, 2007 12:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

You are correct, world dictator - Fukudome is a free agent, and can negotiate and sign with any team in Japan or MLB. Matsuzaka was still under contract with Seibu, his Japanese team, which is why he had to go through the posting procedure.

by mkwng on Nov 15, 2007 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

I agree with you guys on the possible adjustment period and the bidding war, those are the two issues with Fukudome. At first, I thought Fukudome might fly under the radar a little with Hunter and Jones headlining the FA outfielders, but it became more obvious as the week went on that the big guns like Chicago were seriously interested in him. The price alone will keep him from Cleveland. I think he'd be an awesome acquisition if he were actually affordable though, but he looks about as realistic as trading for Cabrera at this point.

by Pronk33 on Nov 14, 2007 11:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

"Affordable" is a relative term, no? I mean, $5M can look correspondingly cheap or expensive depending on the player that salary is attached to.

What kind of numbers do you think Fukudome could average over the next four years? Based on this what would you consider to be affordable for the Indians?

by crazymoloh on Nov 15, 2007 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

Re-read your blog post. You do have some numbers there. $7M isn't terrible for a guy like Fukudome. I think we'd make a run for him if we didn't have Dellichaels.

p.s: It would help if you could post a few key excerpts if you're going to link to a blog :)

by crazymoloh on Nov 15, 2007 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

Excerpts are a good idea, thanks for the reminder.

by Pronk33 on Nov 15, 2007 1:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

I think even if Fukudome was paid $8-9 million per year, the Tribe would still have a pretty good chance at getting their money's worth, ie. comparable production based on other high-tier outfielder's contracts (taking a quick glance at salaries, don't hold me to it).

I say chance because he has more unknowns than your typical FA with an MLB track record. Like you said above, he could seem like a poor value in his first year if he ends up struggling to adjust, that's a great point that I overlooked. If he produces at a level similar to his last three seasons in Japan though, he would definitely be worth the money, in my opinion.

Trying to snag a potentially "expensive" FA would come down to mitigating the cost based on the risks. I think he would be worth the risk, but that's just my take on it; you could successfully argue either way here.

by Pronk33 on Nov 15, 2007 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

We should also consider that most Japanese players seem to want to play either on the pacific cost or for a big-market, big-city team. And of course, if he asks Ichiro for his opinion, he's definitely not coming to Cleveland.

by nickjs21 on Nov 15, 2007 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

His stats, translated to MLB numbers, seem to be something that Shin-Soo Choo can reach.

Line-drive power. Lefty.

Advantage: Choo is younger, cheaper, faster, strong arm (hopefully surgery doesn't hamper it), and has potential to get better.

Disadvantage: Potential is only a word. How well he does in a full season in the MLB will dictate his ability. Plus he's coming off of surgery.

by SupaDupaMonkey on Nov 15, 2007 3:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

That kid in the movie "Rookie of the Year" had surgery that gave him upper 90's velocity on his fastball. Maybe that will happen with Choo, although I don't think we have a Rocket Steadman to help tutor him along.

by hans on Nov 15, 2007 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

Here is an interesting article from the Boston Globe regarding the top six available Japanese free agents this year (with Fukodome listed #1). With the success that Okajima has had this past year, I wonder what the market will be for the four RPers mentioned. I would think that whatever market inefficiency that existed in the past in regards to Japanese RPers will probably be gone this season, and I suspect that teams will probably overpay for the pitchers mentioned. We'll see if anyone paid attention to Baltimore's attempt to buy a bullpen last year by throwing money at it. I know I'm going to cringe when I see some team give Riske 12-15 million over three years.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2007/11/14/six_japanese_free_agents_to_watch/

by millionairesrow on Nov 15, 2007 10:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

While we're at it, Mike Plugh over at BP wrote an article today highlighting some interesting Japanese players, including Fukudome. There's another player further down the list that looks a little more our style - Kazuhiro Wada, a 35 year-old RH OF. He's a shorter term, much less expensive sign that has a career .317/.389/.549 batting line. Mike sees him as a possible smaller market starting OF or excellent 4th OF. FWIW.

by Thommy on Nov 15, 2007 5:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

Since we would want to drop his .317/.389/.549 line down to adjust to the major leagues, and the fact that we have a lot of "great 4th OF" types ... I'm not sure I see a fit.

by nickjs21 on Nov 15, 2007 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

I'm with you - but I'd take a .290/350/490 hitter on a two year deal for $9 million or so. I don't know that is all it would take, but if it would, I'd buy. It could be a very good value contract.

by Thommy on Nov 15, 2007 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

We will not offer up any contract for Fukudome so don't even consider it.

Jason Bay, Kelly Shoppach and Dustin Pedroia (ROY) these are some of my favorite players. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Nov 16, 2007 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

And Moses came down from the mountain....

by hans on Nov 16, 2007 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Scouting Fukudome

You are right E5 consider it unconsidered.

by hans on Nov 16, 2007 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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