Adam Miller Hurt?
by mcrose on Nov 15, 2007 4:07 PM EST
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PrintApparently he started on the mound for the Surprise Rafters today and was removed in the first inning with a "hand/wrist injury", after giving up 3 runs in the first, recording 1 out.
No mention in the game log of getting hit by a batted ball or anything. No other news yet, and there may not be much reported on this right away, we'll see.
Worthwhile to note that his first stint on the DL this summer was for a finger tendon, not the elbow.
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=g_log&gid=2007_11_15_pddwin_surwin_1
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Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
This doesn't help!
Not good news - at this rate, I too wonder whether Miller will ever be able to fulfill his promising ceiling (or even close to it.) He can't do that if he can't stay healthy.
Personally, I'd end his baseball activity for now, let him come back in Spring Training, and hope he remains healthy.
In the meantime, I'd try hard to resign CC - that way, if a GREAT trade that had to include Miller was presented, you'd have the option of including him without hurting the franchise's near-term future in terms of frontline starting pitching.
Mind you, I'm not saying that we HAVE to trade Miller or that I even WANT to trade Miller - I'm just saying to keep our options open. However, I think signing CC is almost essential to doing that; otherwise, by not resigning him and by trading away Miller, that wouldn't be too good for us long-term unless we got a bonafide ace or frontline starter in return (maybe Bedard, who is supposedly available from the O's, though he has his own injury issues? Of course, it'd likely take more than Miller to obtain Bedard, but Miller likely would be the centerpiece, along with 1-2 other solid prospects.)
Just some thoughts to consider and my 2 cents. :-)
Re: This doesn't help!
by E5 on Nov 15, 2007 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
Not so sure on that!
It probably will depend on whether MacPhail (or is it Flanagan? I think one of them is their "GM" - not officially, but the one that seems to be calling the shots, moreless) is willing to do the deal or not, but Baltimore's trade history of late has not been great, including types of deals that involve acquistions with questionable health.
For instance, trading RHP Jorge Julio and RHP John Maine for RHP Kris Benson, who's had a lengthy injury history, including a strained pectoral muscle in 2005, the year before he was acquired by Baltimore, not to mention the TJ surgery he had while he was with Pittsburgh back around 2003.
In FA, giving Jaret Wright a 3-year contract when he's had a lengthy injury history is just one such example via FA.
I'm not sure Baltimore would be turned off entirely by Miller's questionable health, based on their recent history with trades and FA.
Plus, Baltimore supposedly makes a lot of trades and draft signings via their unique psychological assessment analysis, sometimes passing on quality players because there is something that doesn't "match up" with their psychological testing.
Therefore, I wouldn't say the trade has NO chance of happening; unlikely, perhaps, but not out of the realm of possibility.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
Just trade him. Milledge and Pelfrey or something. Kemp. I can't keep getting anxious like this.
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
We'll have to have for a full report. This would have been his last start of the fall league anyway, and he was getting bombed, so hopefully they were being overly cautious.
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
True - I wouldn't trade him right now, as I'd like
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
Not as bad as early reports that had gotten a little exaggerated.
That's actually good news!
Thanks for sharing that - greatly appreciated! :-) A blister isn't that bad compared to what it could have been.
Like I said, I hope he stays healthy and can produce like we think and hope he can.
nickjs21 - I know about that "shudder" - if those three live up to their potential, we could have the best (or one of the best, at least) top 3 rotation in the Majors.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
He's pitched less than 100 innings all told this year, and still needs to work on some stuff. Seem to remember another guy was in the same situation last year:
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
But there is a similarity between Carmona last year and Miller this year in that they both had circumstances that resulted in low innings and perhaps a lowering of expectations. Fausto went down to the Dominican and worked on his strikeouts, and it definitely helped by the time he reported to Winter Haven.
If Miller's arm is ok, maybe he could benefit as well. I'd love to see him down there getting his arm stretched out and getting ready for '08.
If he's 100% healthy and they feel he can,
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Miller's usage!
Westbrook would be your quality fourth and at the trade line dead line I would look to add a need, most likely a LOOGY or back up infielder not something that would cost you a boat load of prospect to get. My ideal goal would be for Miller to throw a maxiumum of 130 IP by playoff time. C.C would also be down around 210 IP and Carmona would be down to 190 IP. These are clearly ideal situations but I would fire my manager if he over used my starters this year.
We need to add another quality bullpen guy or two and are in desperate need of some one that can give us a real left fielders numbers. (.275 BA .370 OBP near .500 slugging) This can come internally but realistically we will have to acquire it. I would have Gutz be my starting RF but if he is struggling at the All Star break I wouldn't hesitate to trade him or bench him if I could acquire a another option fairly cheaply (not likely)
by E5 on Nov 16, 2007 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Miller's usage!
Funny you should mention .275/.370/.500 as a good mark for a LF. That's almost exactly what Bill James projects Bay to hit next year. I don't mean to join the choir, but it's worth noting.
Re: If he's 100% healthy and they feel he can,
It is a valid point about Miller's arm - but if his elbow is 100%, perhaps some winterball in different environs would help him. It's seemed to help a few prospects in the last couple years - Fausto, BenFran and El Guti all made advances in winterball that carried over into the spring and summer. I'd love to see him work on the fastball changeup combination for a month or so south of the border somewhere.
What I meant by "wearing down,"
Hello mcrose,
No problem - I understand your point and can see how you thought I meant their velocity. I meant they wore down more in the sense that their command wasn't as good - I agree that they were overthrowing to an extent, but I'm not sure that was their only problem - I think the IP increase (and the high number of high-stress pitches I've mentioned in other recent posts) took its toll to some extent as well. Otherwise, you'd think the two of them would have delivered more characteristic 2007 performances the second time against the Red Sox.
In fairness to CC, he did do better in that 2nd postseason start against the Red Sox, but still made too many mistakes over the plate, something he didn't do in his July start against Matsuzaka where he lost 1-0 on a run that his defense shouldn't have allowed (I think an OF - Francisco?! - went back on a ball that really had no chance of reaching out there, and Francisco couldn't recover in time to make the catch of a rather routine fly ball) and something he didn't do in many of his starts this year (2-3 at most.) From what I recall in that start, Sabathia gave up very few hard-hit balls.
Conversely, in that 2nd postseason start, the ball that Manny nearly hit for a HR (the one where he only got the single because of his lack of hustle) was a meatball right over the heart of the plate - it essentially hung right over the heart of the plate. CC made quite a few pitches that wound up over the heart of the plate in that start, and several hard-hit balls if I recall correctly (including to lead off the 7th inning,) which makes me think he wasn't just overthrowing, but that he wasn't as sharp as earlier in the year, as he wasn't making mistakes like that with that much regularity over the course of the regular season.
As for Carmona, he was overthrowing, especially inside, to guys like Ramirez and Lowell. However, his IP rate went up by 32.4% (I think) from his career high that he had in 2005, and even when Carmona showed brief glimpses of getting into a good streak, he couldn't stay in it, which was very unlike him during the regular season. I think the combination of the postseason, the Red Sox offense (and subsequently, overthrowing to try to keep them in check,) pitching both games in the unfriendly confines of Fenway Park, and the IP increase all contributed to Carmona's ineffectiveness against the Red Sox.
Therefore, I think overthrowing was part of the problem, but I also think the high increase in IP (and the high number of high-stress pitches that I've mentioned in other posts recently) contributed to the ineffectiveness and uncharacteristic outings of Sabathia and Carmona against the Red Sox as well.
Just my 2 cents - no offense.
Re: What I meant by "wearing down,"
If they were pitching at 92-94 (their normal "settle in and pitch" velocity), it'd be one thing, but they both were consistently at 95-98 every inning, and unable to control it. When you're always behind in the count, you have to come over the plate eventually. I just don't see the IP over the year as having a physical effect on them at that point - the immediate pressure of the situation was the primary factor to my mind.
I certainly could see that, though I would
Hello mcrose,
Sabathia did make some adjustments, to an extent, but still wasn't quite the dominant CC we had seen throughout the season, including in his start against the Red Sox in July. They really did not have many chances to score in that game, and as was mentioned, it was a bad route to a ball that led to their only run, which turned out to be the winning run.
That's why I think the IP and high number of stress-pitches wore on Sabathia - he still wasn't quite himself even in his second start against the Red Sox, and being that Sabathia is now an experienced veteran, he's expected and has shown he can make adjustments from start to start, and even from inning to inning, so I still think the IP and number of pitches over the course of the season did play some role in his inability to not make the necessary adjustments and pitch like he did in the regular season in that second start against the Red Sox. I think the combination of the excitement of the situation and the fatigue of the long season was what led to his lack of command and his inability to keep the Red Sox from having baserunners on in virtually every inning, though they fortunately only scored on two of those threats (the Ortiz-Ramirez back-to-back hits in the 3rd and the Pedroia-Youkilis back-to-back hits to lead off the 7th.)
As for Carmona, I think he was excited, but I arguably think the IP and high number of stress pitches affected him even more than CC because CC had pitched around 200 IP each season for the last several seasons; Carmona, on the other hand, had never been higher than 173.2 IP, and that was two years ago, so Carmona was definitely in new territory. Combine that with the pressure-packed situation against a good and patient Red Sox offense, plus the fact he started both games on the road in a hostile environment, and I think it all combined to take its toll on Carmona, including his ability to command his pitches and his ability to make adjustments.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: I certainly could see that, though I would
It was the playoffs! That was the new territory. As you say, "the excitement and stress". Again, my own personal reaction from watching it was that any lack of command was due to the fact that they were both throwing a lot harder than they had done during the course of the season, not because of fatigue.
There is some empirical data: mlb.com has the gameday archives of every game. Pick a few starts in September and you'll see that CC and Fausto had great success - CC resting at 93-94 with his fastball and Fausto resting at 94-95. Just the fastball, not counting the offspeed pitches that of course are crucial. Segue to the LCS and the velocity spikes, both hitting 96-98 with regularity. Impressive, but not effective.
Whatever. It's in the books now regardless of reasons. The fact is, whether its IP or playoff excitement they'll be better prepared for next year and making the next step - it won't be new territory.
I'm saying that the IP increase may have
Hello mcrose,
I'm not saying they forgot how to pitch just because they reached a certain number of IP; I'm saying that it becomes more difficult to stay strong and finish your delivery where you can place your pitches exactly where you want them to go the longer you go into the season, especially if the number of IP has increased by that much over the course of a season.
Sabathia had pitched 31 more IP (14.8%) than he ever had in his entire career before the postseason even started. Carmona had pitched 41.1 more IP (23.8%) than he ever had in his entire career before the postseason even started, and unlike C.C., hadn't pitched over 200 IP before this season. In fact, he hadn't even pitched 175 IP at any level before 2007, so I certainly think fatigue could have played a role in both Sabathia and Carmona not faring as well in the majority of their postseason starts because I'd think fatigue would affect your ability to command the baseball more than it would affect your velocity. They still could throw the ball hard, but not be able to command it as well as they had earlier in the season.
Plus, taking into account the Red Sox's offense, it's a lot more patient than the teams the Indians faced in September; many of the offenses the Indians faced in September were of the free-swinging variety, like the Twins', White Sox's, and Tigers' offenses. Sabathia and Carmona likely could get a lot of swings-and-misses on pitches off the plate, whether that fastball is registering 93-95 or a little higher. Even against the Yankees, Carmona was hitting 96 on more than a few occasions with his sinker and it was often off the plate inside, not over it, but the Yankees chased those pitches (A-Rod in particular.) Therefore, Carmona wasn't over the plate as much as he had been in earlier starts, but because the Yankees were aggressive, they often got themselves out on those pitches that were running inside off the plate (if I recall correctly, A-Rod and a few Yankees even remarked that they needed to swing at more of Carmona's pitches in the strike zone, which they weren't doing.)
Against the Red Sox, they wouldn't swing at those pitches (his sinker or his offspeed pitches,) which is a major reason why Carmona didn't look as good, even though he was throwing as hard as he was against the Yankees and was coming inside on the Red Sox as often as he was against the Yankees. They just weren't chasing those pitches off the plate like the Yankees were. Earlier in the season, Carmona was closer to or over the plate with that inside fastball, but wasn't that often in the postseason, either against the Yankees or the Red Sox.
Therefore, I think it was a combination of the long season, overthrowing, and the Red Sox's patient offense that led to Sabathia and Carmona not doing as well as most expected they would, not solely just overthrowing, as they weren't overthrowing every pitch. But even when they weren't overthrowing, their command didn't seem as sharp, missing too often on the middle of the plate or missing too far off of the plate - they weren't hitting their spots very often even when they were only throwing at their usual velocity. That's why I think overthrowing is only part of the reason why they didn't fare as well in the postseason (particularly against the Red Sox) as they did in the regular season.
Like you said, whatever the reason - lack of sharpness due to IP increase and/or nervous excitement that led to them overthrowing at times, they'll hopefully be able to overcome both factors and perform much and more consistently better if the Indians make the 2008 postseason.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: I'm saying that the IP increase may have
It's another thing to claim that he's tiring when he's lost control but is actually throwing significantly harder than usual. That just doesn't pass the common sense test.
I don't recall Carmona overthrowing the way C.C. did -- as opposed to just not having his command -- so maybe we were seeing some wall-hitting there in the Boston series. But it's revisionist to claim all-of-a-sudden that the Yankees were getting themselves out against Carmona. He was around the plate all game, they were swinging and missing because his pitches were breaking hard.
The Yankees only got one ball out of the infield in their last 20 trips to the plate. It was the best pitching performance of the whole postseason -- nearly as dominant as Beckett against the Angels, and against a far better lineup. There is no rational basis for claiming Carmona in some way was off his game that night.
So basically, you're contorting a dominant performance into a sketchy one to make the facts fit your theory, i.e., that both guys "hit the wall" in October. This is a reasonable theory, but it's a particularly obvious one rather than a particularly good one. The fact that you have to stretch the facts beyond common sense in order to support it is telling.
Re: I'm saying that the IP increase may have
I have no idea what would cause this. It seems to be just a feel thing. Was it the result of overuse? Maybe for Perez, but I don't think so for Sabathia. It is just one of those things at the wrong time.
Re: I'm saying that the IP increase may have
Info. about Miller from Castrovince!
Sorry if this has already been posted, but I just seen this and thought you might want to read what MLB reporter Anthony Castrovince has to say about Adam Miller and the possibility of his being traded here.
Dellucci's situation (and the possibility of resigning Lofton) and the idea of trading for Bay are also discussed.
Re: Adam Miller Hurt?
Oh wait, I've probably just jinxed them.
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