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Twins close to landing Delmon Young

Sounds like this is pretty close to being official.

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=276

The key parts:

"The Twins and Tampa Bay Rays are close to finalizing a multi-player deal, according to several sources with knowledge of the discussions. The deal could be announced as soon as today.

The main pieces changning teams would be outfielder Delmon Young, the first overall pick in 2003, and righthander Matt Garza. But indications were strong on Wednesday that as many as six players could be involved.

In addition to Garza, the Twins would send Tampa Bay shortstop Jason Bartlett and reliever Juan Rincon for Young, shortstop Brendan Harris and outfielder Jason Pridie."

Discuss.

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Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Wow. Surprising move. Based on my admittedly superficial knowledge of the players involved, it sounds like a win for both teams.
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Nov 28, 2007 4:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Tampa's losing here big time, imo.

by Joe on Nov 28, 2007 4:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
agree.  i'm always ripping people for suggesting trades that include the throw-in junk we're willing to use to trim fat in trades to get stars.  and by golly, the twins just pulled that off - not that garza doesn't have real value.

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 5:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
First, Bartlett and Harris cancel each other out, save for Bartlett's defense.

Second, I think the fact that I've heard a lot of disagreement from a lot of different people as to who won the trade likely means it's a pretty fair trade.

Both teams look a lot better now.  The Twins went from Cuddyer and Pray For Rain (wait, how does that work for hitters?) in the OF to Cuddyer, Young, and Pridie.  The Rays suddenly have a formidable, young rotation with the addition of Garza.  Sure, you can cherry pick either side, but I really feel like there's enough good that both teams will come out of it with.

Garza is a really, really good pitching prospect.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 5:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
But he's a pitching prospect.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 28, 2007 5:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
i just don't see how Garza is a better piece than Young, so i feel like the rest of the deal has to balance it out.  agree bartlet and harris are a wash.  if pridie is legit he sways it more to the twins.

the main cogs though are dealt from a position of strength, hence why the deal was made and why it was good for both teams.  i just think the total value favors the twins.

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 5:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
He's not a really, really good pitching prospect. He's a very good pitching prospect, as opposed to Young who is a phenomenal prospect. The DRays system is stacked with pitching. Why give up such a big time hitting OF prospect when you don't really have anyone to replace him in the minors.

by Joe on Nov 28, 2007 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
You're kidding, right? I love me some Elijah, when he's not threatening to kill people.

by Joe on Nov 28, 2007 5:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Yeah I don't think he'll ever play for the Rays again either.  I'm just throwing the name out there.  

With nothing else, TB has an outfield of Crawford, Baldelli (maybe), and now Gomes I suppose.  There's still a lot of young pitching on that team that could be spun into a less valuable outfielder.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 6:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I've already thrown in my two cents in the other Twins thread a couple diaries below this one.  It's probably worthy of it's own diary though.  Big time trade.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 5:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I definitely think the Twins are winning this one. I'm high on Delmon Young, and Harris is a solid ballplayer. From the other thread, someone said Pridie is for real, as well. Bartlett is trash, and Rincon is Meh, and Garza is a pitching prospect.

Winner, Twins.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 28, 2007 5:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Don't sell Bartlett short.  He's hardly trash.  If the Rays want they may be able to spin him for more relief next year.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 5:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Career slugging percentage in over 1000 at bats = .393. And just taking a glimpse at his BABIP numbers, he's been incredibly lucky as a hitter. In 2007, his only "normal" year (BABIP wise), he hit .265. Nothing to see here, move along.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 28, 2007 5:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Slugging per cent age.  That's like Batting Average, right?  So .393?  Wow.  Sign me up.  Eat that, Tony Gwynn.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 5:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Nick, you're much smarter than to suggest Bartlett and Gwynn are comparable hitters for average.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 28, 2007 5:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
My joke didn't land.  They rarely do.

/Price Is Right losing music

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 5:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Sorry.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 28, 2007 5:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Actually am, I didn't mean to come down too hard.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 28, 2007 5:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
That's what she said.

No no, I didn't think you were coming down too hard (that's what-- nevermind).  

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 5:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
so they move Santana and Garza out in the same offseason? Fine by me.

by ASP on Nov 28, 2007 5:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Can't say I'm too familiar with the fringe elements of this trade, but Garza for Young seems to heavily favor the Twins. Young must really be a clubhouse cancer for Tampa to already consider moving him.

by millionairesrow on Nov 28, 2007 5:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Looks like they are banking on the Santana trade yielding an ML-ready pitching prospect. Bad news for the Mets and Dodgers in the Santana-stakes.

Prediction - Hughes/Cabrera/Jackson for Santana

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 5:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I still think the best package - by far - is Kemp, LaRoche, and Kershaw.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 28, 2007 5:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
the dodgers aren't giving up that package for 1 year of santana or 2 years of cabrera for that matter.  of course it's the best package.  so best, it ain't happanin'

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 5:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
We must have different assessments of the Dodgers' capability to sign one of these two.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 28, 2007 5:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
i guess they'd only make one of those deals if they get the old negotiating window - which would mean that they're not trading it for 1 and 2 years respectively, then.

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 6:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Its not a 1-year rental! Its an opportunity to jump ahead of the line and sign the league's best pitcher when there's no one bidding against you for a year.

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 6:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
"Its not a 1-year rental!"

thanks for the exclamation point.  now i know it's true.

that's up to Santana.  they'd need to negotiate or that deal wouldn't happen, a big IF.

how is my assertion that they wouldn't make that trade for 1 year of service wrong?  they won't.

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 6:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
obviously my only problem was with considering that trade a 1-year rental and nothing more. but yeah, no way the dodgers cough up that much talent.

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 6:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Just a quick question, how is it not a 1-year rental and nothing more?  I mean, people bring up the opportunity to have exclusive negotiating rights as if it's a benefit to trading for the guy, but has this ever actually happened?  Has anyone ever been traded just before their walk year, and then signed an extension with the new team "because" the new team went to the front of the line?

A trade for Santana nets you 1 year of Santana, and nothing more.

by kwoog on Nov 28, 2007 6:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Yawn.  I was just asking for an example.

by kwoog on Nov 28, 2007 8:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
A) Josh Beckett (2 years before), Scott Rolen (walk year)

B) There only a handful of superstars in the game like Santana or Beckett or M-Cab. Of those handful of superstars, fewer still are on teams that can't lock them up. So there aren't going to be copious examples. Moreover, while it was more common for premier free agents to hit the market 5-10 years ago, revenue sharing monies have given some teams up to $30M a year and have given them the means to hold onto their talent longer. Can you name more than 2-3 players in a league close to Santana who made it to free agency (in their prime)?

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 8:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Point taken.  All the ones I can quickly think of fall in your 5-10 range or so (Pedro, Arod, Manny).

I actually think Johan's is a very unique situation.  Instead of limiting it, I was simply thinking of the "premiere" FAs who were a year or less rentals.  Randy Johnson, Beltran, those "sweepstakes" kind of guys.

It seems to me that Santana is one season away from signing a record setting contract.  As has been talked re: CC, that's probably not a lot of risk in his eyes.  Thus, I think the only reason he would forgo the open market bidding war that will produce maximum dollars for himself is for comfort, ie re-sign with the only team for whom he's played.  

However, I admit the year of exclusive rights has some value, if you're a rich team and can tell him, "name your price."  If he does, you don't have to worry about another rich team swooping in.  The problem is, why would he do that?  The way this sport is going, he might think any price he could imagine would be underselling.

by kwoog on Nov 28, 2007 9:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
He'd do that because $150M today beats $200M a year from now because that deal might never happen. He could get hurt, start to decline, etc... He can insure his arm for the year, but he can't insure to the tune of $200M. Take the guaranteed money today!

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 11:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
kwoog is exactly as clueless as I am.

Without specific reason to think otherwise -- such as the player and team both say that the basic framework of an extension has already been worked out -- trades executed without extensions already executed should be viewed as one-year rentals.  

The one-year rental retention rate is probably better than the two-month rate, but I think you'd be surprised that it isn't all that much better.

I don't have specific numbers for you, but my guess is the retention rate for walk-year acquisitions is much lower, perhaps half, of the retention rate for players with a year or more already with that team.

by Jay on Nov 29, 2007 10:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Seriously now, in your best estimate, does Santana get signed by the team that he gets traded to?

by crazymoloh on Nov 29, 2007 12:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Santana has a no trade clause, he is likely to only accept a trade if he gets his long term deal, otherwise he'd be quite content to wait it out for free agency.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here.

by Ohiokie on Nov 29, 2007 9:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Johan has this interesting clause ...

  • may block trades to 3 clubs in 05, 8 in 06, 10 in 07 & 12 in 08
  • full no-trade clause for 2007-08 with top 3 in CY vote in 06 or 07

... so he does have a full no-trade clause at this point, since he won the Cy Young in 2006.

But it doesn't necessarily follow that he wouldn't approve a trade to a more competitive team for one year.  He probably wouldn't -- players don't like to uproot themselves all the time, and the Twins aren't totally hopeless -- but he might.

The fact that he's criticized the Twins' spending publicly -- something Sabathia doesn't do -- provides a hint.  But of course the acquiring team would also have to go along with it.

The fact that we are even hearing significant Santana trade reports indicates that he has told them he will consider offers.  That means either approving a trade rental scenario or being willing to forego free agency by extending with the acquiring team right now.

by Jay on Nov 29, 2007 9:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
So do you think the year of exclusive negotiation rights have real value for the team that deals for him?  By "real value", I mean, could alter the players involved, increase the price they have to pay in prospects.

It's not like the team that trades for him can discuss it with him prior to the trade, right?  

by kwoog on Nov 29, 2007 10:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
If both teams agree, MLB can grant the acquiring team a three-day negotiating period to discuss an extension, and it will allow them to agree to a binding extension pending the completion of the trade.  The most recent one I can think of is Curt Schilling going to the Red Sox.

by Jay on Nov 29, 2007 10:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Does anybody recall how it worked with Pedro going to the redsox? Was signing him to a long term deal part of the trade from the Expos?

My guess is that the big money teams tend to keep their rentals. The teams like the Astros, Rangers and the like do not. I don't see NYY, BOS, LAA or the NYM failing to pony up the requisite 6/140-150 after acquiring Santana in the trade.

by oxforddave on Nov 29, 2007 11:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Are you sure he has a full no-trade this year?  I thought how it worked was he had to finish in the top 3 in 2006 to get the clause for 2007, and then had to do it again in 2007 to get it for 2008.  Maybe that's how I always read it.  Of course the wording on Cot's makes me seem wrong.  Oh well.

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 10:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
There's no way the Dodgers make that offer for Santana. They'd give up too much. Even just Kemp and LaRoche for Santana is a stretch.

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 6:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
If we're expecting the Twins to want ML-ready pitching in return to cover for both Santana and Garza, Billingsley would probably be required instead of Kershaw.  Maybe they don't feel they need Kemp, either, although I would.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 6:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
They don't need Cabrera now with Jason Pridie. I think this means they get more prospects from NY.

Maybe Hughes/Tabata/Holmes/Jackson

by KevinV on Nov 28, 2007 7:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Frankly I'm a little jealous this deal got done, even if it does ship a premium young pitcher (who had one of his best starts of the year against us) out of the division.  There's a small immature part of my brain that now wants us to get Quentin or Milledge at any cost just to throw it back in Minnesota's face.

But I know Shapiro is a more patient man than I.  

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 6:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I love that two of Delmon's top three comps (through age 21) include Tris Speaker and Roberto Clemente.  Ooops.

Even if he doesn't develop into an elite hitter, I think that Delmon's glove/arm will go on to rank with the afformentioned greats.  

It's an interesting trade, but I think the Rays just traded a guy who'll be among the best in the game in the next several years; a potential HOF player.  He was the surest no.1 overall pick since ARod.  I like Garza ok, but I'm a little more fearful of the Twins now than I was yesterday.  Prediction:  the Rays screwed up.  

by homelytourist on Nov 28, 2007 6:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
If they pull this trade off their offense will be better but losing Hunter negates the full value this trade could have had.
Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Nov 28, 2007 7:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
False.  They'd have Delmon for several years at cheaper prices and, almost certainly, better production towards to end of those years.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 9:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I predict this deal doesn't happen. Someone gets cold feet or another team comes in and steals Delmon away.

by Toxicadam on Nov 28, 2007 7:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Could we go Miller and parts for Young? Maybe Josh Rodriguez? Let them keep Harris and Pridie?

by afh4 on Nov 28, 2007 7:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I love this trade for MIN. They fill CF, 2B and LF/RF holes with one move.

Now if they can flip Santana for Hughes/IPK/(Tabata Holmes or Jackson) they have really made themselves scary for a the next 5 years.

Not to mention all the moves they could make with Nathan and Morneau. Heck if they trade away everyone else for young guys, they might have the cash to keep Santana. That would be some impressive GM'ing.

by KevinV on Nov 28, 2007 8:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
where'd i just see the Rays are also about to get Percival.  They've built themselves a bullpen.

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 9:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Those reports are being amended to say they're in the lead for Percival, but the Yankees and Brewers have offers on the table as well.  Tampa will give him 2 years, but Milwaukee will give him the closer's job.

Linkage.

But yes, it would appear the Rays are making moves.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 9:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Updated again.  It's going to be the Rays for sure, Olney says.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 10:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Juan Rincon is out because of his health.  He's being replaced with Eduardo Morlan.  Says Rotoworld:

Healthy or not, Rincon wasn't a great bet to be worth what he was due in arbitration. Morlan, on the other hand, is one of the top five or 10 relief prospects in baseball. The 21-year-old had a 3.10 ERA and a 99/20 K/BB ratio in 69 2/3 innings at Single-A Fort Myers and Double-A New Britain last season.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 10:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
scales tipping a little more evenly, imhmomimoh.

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 10:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Yes, both teams have gotten deals of favour.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 10:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Is "Deals of Favour" the name of a Britsh/Canadian game show?

by NickFantana on Nov 29, 2007 9:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Does Anyone think Josh Hamilton would be available for LF? If so would he be a good fit? And what would he cost?

by scc2 on Nov 28, 2007 10:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I know.  It's just an out of place discussion, is all.

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 1:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
So unless the Rays turn around and trade Bartlett next year, that infield can still look pretty crowded.  I wouldn't rule out a deal for Iwamura yet.  I still like this guy.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 10:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Done deal now
Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Nov 28, 2007 11:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Don't think this merited a diary, but thought I'd share BA's Rule 5 Preview.

From the Tribe's perspective, nothing unexpected (Barton and Whitney).

by Pronktastic on Nov 28, 2007 11:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Barton and Whitney will be hard to lose but that is the consequences of having a quality minor league system.  Now if so how they moved Marte to free up a spot on the 40 man for one player I would take Barton over Whitney.
Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Nov 28, 2007 11:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I think I would, too.

I bet the A's would like Barton.  Beane's kind of guy.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 11:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Nice deal for the Twins. It would nice if they could ship Santana to the NL.

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 11:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Think about if they acquire years of pre-FA performance from Delmon Young and Phil Hughes; both deals could be done in a week.  I don't care what rankings you use, those are two of baseball's top ten prospects (before they lost prospect status), and probably #1 in the OF and #1 among pitchers.  That would be a pretty sweet haul, on top of everything else they could get.  Might as well trade Nathan and make the rest of the Central sweat.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 11:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
They still have holes at SS, 3B, 2B, 3rd OF. Not to mention, none of their opening day starters has had anything close to a year in the majors. Lot of upside. Lots. But lots of risk....

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 11:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Well I wasn't commenting so much on the overall team, just how cool it would be to boast two of baseball's greatest prospects.  Especially with one being a hitter and one a pitcher.

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 12:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Nick, seriously, they are a shambles, a shambles I tell you.
I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Nov 29, 2007 12:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Snap, right, I completely forgot.  Why are we even talking about this?  Is all this jibber jabber putting rings on Shapiro's finger?

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 12:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
On a related note, I personally do not expect Santana to be traded this offseason.  I think the leverage for the Twins gets a lot stronger in the summer when the Yankees/Mets/Dodgers (whomever) are 6-8 games out of first.  

Holding onto him til the summer also leaves open the possibility that they can be very competitive this year and let him walk, not the worst decision in the world.

More than anything, I hope Bill Smith appreciates that the leverage he has over Hank Steinbrenner will only increase in force as time passes.  Make the jackass sweat!

by NickFantana on Nov 29, 2007 10:11 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
http://www.aarongleeman.com/

Gleeman doesn't really like it. If nothing else, I appreciate Gleeman because he formulates his own opinions, completely unswayed by perception.

He doesn't love Young, and he's about the only solid evaluator I can find who doesn't, and, perhaps more interestingly, he doesn't think Harris can play SS. So, his feeling is the Twins traded a potential number 1, a great relief prospect, and a SS, for a young hitter with not a ton of power or discipline, a 2B who hits like a SS, and a 4th OF.

He kind of has me convinced. Garza is way better than he gets credit for, I think.

by afh4 on Nov 29, 2007 11:44 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
This is all true (and I also enjoy what Gleeman does), but it may be better viewed after seeing what the Twins can get for Johan.  I think they can replace Garza with a Hughes-esque guy (or Hughes himself), and mix some middle infield help in there.

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 12:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Also!  Gleeman must love that bubble-gum picture of Garza.  It's up there every time he talks about him.  

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 12:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I agree w/ Gleeman that the Morlan sub. tips the scales a bit.
It still depends on what you think of Garza, I guess.  I'm looking at it this way: even if Garza is the best pitching prospect in the game, he's still just a pitching prospect.  Delmon Young is already a very good OF option at the very worst, and a stable asset.  And between Young's upside [HOF] and Garza's upside [no. 1 for x years], well...
Gleeman writes, "The package that the Twins received in return for Garza, Morlan, and Bartlett essentially means that Young must become a superstar for the trade to be successful."  Garza could just as easily be a good or average pitcher, the most likely outcome, and the trade is a relative success for the Twins because they've addressed a paramount concren.  

by homelytourist on Nov 29, 2007 1:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
And between Young's upside [HOF] and Garza's upside [no. 1 for x years], well...

Pitchers aren't allowed in the HOF anymore?  If you can project Young's upside into Cooperstown with just a small sample of major league experience, I don't know how you could say Garza doesn't have the same chance to get there.  He's actually been more successful in the majors, at least in my opinion.

It's kind of a silly matter to debate who has better HOF chances, but my point is that you can't just say one of them has the chance.

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 1:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Ok, I admit that I might be putting to much emphasis on status over actual accomplishments. But I think it's fair to evalute number one draft picks (who were true no. 1s) differently than other prospects.

Garza, who just turned 24, is also nearly 2 years older (which is good timing--gets him out of the injury nexus).

Yeah, of course Garza could be a great player, but--honestly--who do you estimate is the better bet between the two?

I guess that HOF caliber pitchers come out of the early-warning prospect rankings more randomly. From what I've seen, OFs and position guys who lead these lists tend to excell more regularly than the young pitchers.  Yeah, OF prospects also flop, but the prospect road is absolutely littered with Ben McDonalds and Mark Priors.

Am I being simple minded on this?  I look at Young, who has so much more talent than his older brother (who still has had a nice career) and I see a Jermaine Dye-esque career as a semi-conservative projection.  Then I look at Garza, and I see just another (probably) good pitcher whose career still could go so many different directions.  

       

by homelytourist on Nov 29, 2007 2:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Garza to the best of my knowledge also has yet to fling a bat at an umpire, get suspended a few games in AAA for bumping an umpire, or be suspended for a game for yelling at his major league manager.

I think Delmon's immaturity and general asshattedness will derail his major league career long before it pulls into HOF Station.

by Jackdaw on Nov 29, 2007 11:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
If we're talking about Elijah Dukes, then yes, I think his character could derail his career before it ever really takes off.  However, Delmon is just young and immature.  In my mind he's just as likely to grow up and realize what he could accomplish as he is to spiral downward out of baseball.  We put up with Albert Belle for a long time.  

At the very least his brother should talk some sense into him.

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 11:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I want to Twins to trade for Dukes too and have he and Delmon room together on the road.

by Jackdaw on Nov 29, 2007 11:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Good trade for the Twins. Delmon hit close to .300 and knocked in 93 as a 22 yr old rook, and he's only going to get better.

I can't help but think there was some issue other than strict performance involved for the Rays to trade him. But the Twins new GM said they've been working on this for a month, getting feedback from people who know and play with him, so I guess they're satisfied in that regard. They certainly did a good job keeping this out of the rumor mill.

by mcrose on Nov 29, 2007 11:57 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
No they didn't.  Less than a week ago SI.com called this "the rumor that wouldn't die."  Garza-for-Delmon speculation has been going on for quite some time, although most people just assumed it was nothing more than talk.

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 12:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Well gee, you got me there. I guess I should have said "serious" rumor mill, the kind that actually generates intense discussion on home fans' boards and such because it seems to have some basis in reality, as in it might actually happen as opposed to the hundreds of "non-serious" rumors that are published daily in various forms and forums daily, y'know?

For a deal like this that's been under discussion for a month and finally came to be after a lot of back and forth, it seems the pricipals did a great job of keeping it under the radar.

by mcrose on Nov 29, 2007 1:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Can they please trade Santana to the National League?

by oxforddave on Nov 29, 2007 12:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I think the Indians should offer Crowe and Marte.  Get this deal done Mark, then we can count da ringz!!!!!1!!1

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 12:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Hey, is Rodney Choy Foo still around? Let's go get Kazmir!

I'm brilliant, I know. Please, stop applauding.

by ManchildinBeantown on Nov 29, 2007 1:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Don't be foolish Manchild.  The obvious solution is to trade for Victor Zambrano and flip him for Kazmir.

by Pronktastic on Nov 29, 2007 1:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Stop trying to hide your true identity.

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 1:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Could you imagine if the Indians got ROLEN?!?!?

by Pronktastic on Nov 29, 2007 1:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
We could always use another pitcherDENNYNEAGLEDENNYNEAGLEDENNYNEAGLE.

Wait, that wasn't Drennan, was it?

by ManchildinBeantown on Nov 29, 2007 1:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
In light of Drennan's obsession with Rolen, has anyone ever seen him and this guy in the same place?

by Pronktastic on Nov 29, 2007 2:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
"The Yankees are interested in Gagne."  [looks up at camera, leans over desk], "Why not us, Mark?!"

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 2:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Hrm, I haven't lived in Cleveland since '99. What's Drennan been spewing lately?

By the way, I'm prettier than he is. Not much, though.

by ManchildinBeantown on Nov 29, 2007 1:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
He's been spewing horrible crap.  I can't tell you for sure, because I only watch once a month or so.  Friends tell me, and I just shake my head.

True story.  A guy I work with kept e-mailing him approaching last year's trading deadline with "inside information" about trade rumors he'd heard involving the Indians.  Of course he was making these all up.  But because he told Bruce it was inside information, Bruce ended up reading about 90% of these on the air and, often enough, discussing them with callers.  This went on every day for about two weeks.  He has some of them on DVR.

Credible journalism, folks.

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 2:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Why would we want that? We got 5 weins against him last year -- keep him in the division!

/joking

by JulioBernazard on Nov 29, 2007 1:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
You know, if the Indians pull through that corner outfield trade we've been looking for, why not offer BenFran (or whomever they'd want) to the Rays for someone like Andy Sonnanstine?  It never hurts to have some pitchers.  We'd be dealing from (at that point) extreme excess, taking excess (young pitching) from the Rays, and giving them an outfielder.

In fact, we'd probably be short pitching after the hypothetical aforementioned trade.

I think Sonnanstine is valued pretty highly in Tampa, but this may have just been because at the time they didn't have a lot of options.  I don't know.  Just those trade wheels turning in my head.

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 8:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I'd be very interested in acquiring Sonnanstine if we could. He had a tough year for them last year, I wonder if we'd be able to swing a deal like for him. But is a fourth outfielder really going to net you Sonnanstine?

by hans on Nov 29, 2007 8:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Well that's the rub.  It was just off the top of my head.  Honestly if I was a team looking for an outfielder I'd take BenFran over Dellucci, Michaels, or Choo.  At least Francisco has the potential for good things (Dellichaels probably can only platoon at this point), and unlike Choo he has options left.

In the majors last year, Sonnanstine struck out 17.5% of batters faced, which is above the ML average of 15.88.  His GB% was lower than the average (43.8) at 40.  Both of these numbers looked better in the minors obviously.  I don't know, I think he can have a pretty solid career ahead of him.  Edwin Jackson was above average with groundballs and just percentage points lower in Ks, but I'd rather have Sonnanstine for whatever reason.  Although Jackson would be cheaper.

Who knows.  I'm just throwing it out there that trading for an impact corner OF (like a Milledge or a Bay) will leave our pitching depth a little short, and Shapiro is a big champion of pitching depth.  I see a club with a lot of young arms with a need in the OF, and my gears start turning.

On a related note, USA Today says the Indians are shopping Lee and Dellucci.  Lee we've known about, but has anyone else ever read confirmed reports about Dellucci?  I just figured he wasn't that attractive.

by nickjs21 on Nov 29, 2007 9:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
" I just figured he wasn't that attractive."

i don't know, looks pretty dreamy. you tell me:

maybe it's just the puppy.

by Brick. on Nov 29, 2007 10:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
According to Jerry Crasnick on ESPN.com, the Rays are looking at Geoff Jenkins as a replacement for Delmon.  Can't we offer them something better and cheaper?

I like where Nick is going with this - they now have an excess of good young starting pitching (we're talking about the Rays, believe it or not), and we might be able to dip into it.    

- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Nov 30, 2007 5:07 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
link

I think it's an insider column, but I'm not sure

- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Nov 30, 2007 5:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Also, is anyone else scared by Young, Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer in that lineup?

That's pretty potent, even if there rest of the lineup is made up of guys like Jason Tyner.

- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Nov 30, 2007 5:13 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Actually, and I know I'm completely dominating the thread right now (probably has something to do with the fact that it's 2 PM for me and 7 AM for you), I take that back.  Young<Hunter (at least right now), so they actually take a step back from last year.  <p> Then again, Mauer was hurt a lot last year, so you never know.  
- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Nov 30, 2007 6:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Delmon posted a 715 OPS last year as a 22 year old rookie.

Hunter has a career 790 OPS.

I wouldn't be so sure that 2008 Delmon is worse than 2008 Hunter.

by gte619n on Nov 30, 2007 12:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
I think the question is, Will 2008 Delmon be worse than 2007 Hunter?  And I think it's likely.  For their careers, I'm sure Delmon will be better.  For now, there's nothing wrong with holding your own at his age.

by nickjs21 on Nov 30, 2007 12:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Sorry, I don't think I finished my thought there.

Basically:  2008 Delmon's performance probably won't exceed 2007 Hunter's, therefore the offense for right now will not see any significant upgrade.

by nickjs21 on Nov 30, 2007 12:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Agreeing with both points ... the Twins certainly are better off with Young than with Hunter, even aside from the salary difference.  One guy is on his way up, the other on his way down.  But Hunter is still a small favorite to put up better numbers in 2008.  This improves their lineup relative to last week, but not relative to the 2007 season.

And of course, they had to give up Garza, and downgrade defensively at shortstop, in order to get that upgrade.  Both sacrifices represent a step back not just long term, but for this season.  Garza is not a prospect, he's a big-league pitcher, with every reason to expect above-average production in 2008.

(And by the way, if we'd had Morlan and traded him, we'd all be screaming about it.)

Given the Twins relative depth in different areas, this is a good trade for them long-term, even if they did overpay a bit.  But this is not an upgrade for 2008, even after considering relative depth.

by Jay on Nov 30, 2007 1:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Not to mention, Tyner always seems to hit us (singles are hits, too).
.357/.413/.409 against the Indians lifetime.

by painaxl on Nov 30, 2007 7:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
1187 OPS in seven games at the Jake this season ... 550 BABIP.

by Jay on Nov 30, 2007 12:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Depending on lineup contruction, I would intentionally load the bases to pitch to Punto.

by nickjs21 on Nov 30, 2007 10:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
There is nothing remotely scary about that lineup.

They were the 12th best (3rd worst) in the AL last year, and they have not been upgraded.

  • Young will not likely improve on Hunter's career year (and is a step down on defense).
  • Morneau is only a Konerko, not a Thome.  His career slugging is only .498, .492 last season, and only .504 in his best season.  His career OBP is an entirely un-scary .340.
  • Cuddyer, with the sub-800 OPS?  Seriously?

Mauer is the best hitter here, and he has trouble staying healthy.  The Twins will be lucky to string together five quality hitters this season, and none of their guys has real Scary Monster potential.

Not scary.

by Jay on Nov 30, 2007 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Shambles of a lineup.
Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Nov 30, 2007 2:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
E,

I have the New York Times here in front of me, I need an eight-letter word that starts with an "S", hint is "ragged wreck"

Any thoughts?

by NickFantana on Nov 30, 2007 3:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Agree on most things - but do you really think Young is a step down on defense, especially at this point in Hunter's career?  This is based on perception, not numbers whatsoever, but what Young lacks in range (if anything) he makes up for, and then some, with his arm.  I'm pretty sure people were talking about Young having the one of the best outfield arms in baseball, if not the best.  

I'm not sure I agree with you on this, and I'm not sure I disagree with you - I've seen Hunter play a lot more than I've seen Delmon play.  I guess we'll get our chance, eh?

- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Dec 1, 2007 8:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Twins close to landing Delmon Young
Hunter was (is?) an elite CF for many years, while Delmon was expected to play RF in the majors for a long time.  I think this may be a case where the defense gets overhyped because of the offense.

Anyway, as with the hitting, I'll give Hunter a small edge to outperform Young on defense ... at least for one more year.

by Jay on Dec 3, 2007 2:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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