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Sowers Explains

by Pronktastic on Nov 28, 2007 9:54 AM EST Comment 73 comments

Buster Olney has a nice little piece on his blog (Insider) about Jeremy Sowers. Not so much a piece, as a copy and paste of a Sowers email.

Jeremy explains his poor 2007 was from a lack of confidence due to the first real baseball related failure in his life. A snippet:

"Then I had a start against Syracuse. Nothing special happened that day, nor did something profound ignite my confidence prior to the game. Somehow, someway (probably luck) I managed to strike out the side in the first inning. My pitches were perfect, and the hitters looked overmatched. Eight innings later, I finished a CG.

"After that game, I realized one thing to be true: 'Confidence breeds more confidence.' The only way to end a slump is to get a couple hits, or win a game or two. Personally I never believed in the 'think confident' approach, mostly because I never had to pitch without it.

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Comments

Re: Sowers Explains

While interesting on a human level, I think this is a pretty ridiculous way to explain away performance.

Definitely worth a diary, though.

by afh4 on Nov 28, 2007 9:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Agree with you.

Although I suppose he can't just say "I have fringe-average stuff and regressed to the mean."

by Pronktastic on Nov 28, 2007 10:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

It isn't always useful for a performer to focus on a purely objective or rationalist take on his own performance. Confidence is a factor, and visualization is a technique that has helped a lot of people succeed.

And by "a lot of people," I really mean "a lot of people who didn't suck."

by Jay on Nov 28, 2007 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I desperately hope Sowers is "a lot of people."

by Pronktastic on Nov 28, 2007 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Agree totally that this is probably a useful exercise for Sowers. I don't think it's a terribly useful exercise for outsiders to listen to this and say "Ahhh! It was confidence!"

Not that anyone was doing that. It's just the sort of talk that we hear from athletes all the time and doesn't really seem to correlate to success or failure.

by afh4 on Nov 28, 2007 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Yeah, the Indians' explanation -- inadequate conditioning -- struck me as more credible. But by the same token, this is the man's career we're talking about. He has to take the hill this spring knowing he either is a major league pitcher, or he isn't. If it helps Jeremy Sowers to deal with that by concentrating on something like confidence, which he has complete control over, swell.

Now me, I seem to get my inspiration from cute girls in bawdy screenprinted tee-shirts. But confidence, that'll work too.

by fleerdon on Nov 28, 2007 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Does that mean E5 is going to pop in here to tell us that Sowers is a fat fat fatty?

I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Nov 28, 2007 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Well, no, it's a mechanics issue.

by fleerdon on Nov 28, 2007 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

If not for that and the fat, he would be throwing 110.

I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Nov 28, 2007 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

this is always so chicken and egg for me - as sowers sort of hints at.

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 10:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Agreed - a good start creates a sense of confidence, and confidence leads to more good starts, but what lead to the good start in the first place? Luck?

Either way, this is still impressive and well-written, and I think I became a bigger Jeremy Sowers fan after reading that letter.

- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Nov 28, 2007 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Jeremy has always been very well-spoken and open to self-analysis.

I remember a Josh Beckett interview from a few years ago where he basically believes that you can't succeed at the major league level without a bit of cockiness. I don't think this is anything new in the sports world, but Jeremy probably knows now that whatever pitch he's throwing is the right pitch to throw. He needs to believe that. When the game starts--as Crash Davis said--Don't think. It can only hurt the team.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I think Josh Beckett is trying to rationalinize his douchebagness. Joe Inglet strikes me as a confident guy. Doesn't mean he can play well. Heck C.Lee apparently was so confident/cocky in his own abilities that he didn't bother to listen to the pitching coaches last year.

I think baseball is full of non-cocky superstars that I don't buy the link between being cocky and being a good player. Especially when it comes from an idiot like Beckett.

by hans on Nov 28, 2007 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I think that's the point. I'm confident. That doesn't mean I'm going to make it to the bigs. I think the take home point is that if you belong in the subset of people who possess the physical gifts to play at the major league level, you need a little bit of cockiness to succeed there.

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

question: If you're confident in your confidence, does saying you're confident indicate that you in fact are not confident?

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

And what if you're talking about said confidence in your confidence to your closest confidant who is also a confidence man?

by zempf on Nov 28, 2007 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I'm confident that you're trying to con us now.

"It's hard to win when you don't score." Cliff Lee, 9/28/05.

by Harry Doyle on Nov 28, 2007 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

No, I think Moloh (or whatever you would prefer to be called) has it right. To have success among the top 4% of people in your profession--those in the majors--you have to believe that you can compete and succeed at that level. If a pitcher doesn't think he's going to get anyone out, I'm not sure he has a long career ahead of him.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

but how is that "cocky", Confidence I'll give, cockyness I don't think so.

by hans on Nov 28, 2007 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Tomato, tomato. (I know that doesn't work so well in print.)

Confidence, arrogance, swagger, whatever you want to call it. You have to think you're better than the guy you're squaring off with in a batter/hitter confrontation.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

also! i hope he isn't sitting around resting his arm and body all winter thinking "I don't need to get in shape, I just need confidence come March and I'm golden."

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 10:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

later on in the piece - "This offseason, I plan to simply work harder. Then be ready to battle in spring training for a spot in the rotation."

by Thommy on Nov 28, 2007 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

thanks.

i'm not cheap, but i did get tired of giving espn money for yankees and redsox updates and a few links to articles i had usually already read anyway.

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Anyone remember Jody Gerut (in one of Peter Gammons' columns on ESPN) talking about how he planned to avoid a sophomore slump? Jody's words sounded good, but he proceeded to suck donkey balls that year and beyond.

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 11:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Well yea, but this is at least very encouraging. I was never a big fan of Sowers but one thing you can never say about the guy is he isn't self-aware or humble.

by Joe on Nov 28, 2007 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Hey Crazy, you keep saying that like it's a bad thing, but it's entirely possible that those could be a delicacy, in some parts of the world.

I'm jus' sayin', is all.

by ManchildinBeantown on Nov 28, 2007 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I'm sure this guy would eat them.

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Brick, you've just given me my new euphemism for the Neifi Perezes and Juan Pierres of the world.

Survivors.

by ManchildinBeantown on Nov 28, 2007 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

And I'm pretty sure this guy would. He east pickled pigs feet and back bottom gristle lumps.

by Jay on Nov 28, 2007 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

What is love? What is this longing in our hearts for togetherness? Is it not the sweetest flower? Does not this flower of love have the fragrant aroma of fine fine diamond? Does not the wind love the dirt? Is not love not unlike the unlikely not it is unlikened to?

by NickFantana on Nov 29, 2007 10:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Her also probably gained some confidence by adding a few ticks on his fastball when he went down to Buffalo to work with the coaches there.

There was/is one camp that concluded that Sowers' 06 performance was just luck, and that the ML hitters simply caught up to him and exposed him for what he is - a very avg pitcher who can be lit up if he is not absolutely perfect with his command.

But to me he just seemed like not the same pitcher last year, either in command or velocity or "mound presence". I'm in the camp that says, while he may not ever lead the league in era, his '06 campaign was not a fluke, and there's a good solid starter there who can be a rotation mainstay.

I like Laffey too, but I think if they both perform decently in ST, all things being equal, Sowers will get the #5 spot and will be able to hold onto it.

Plus, there are not too many nerds in the big leagues - its kind of hard not to root for a kid who can use "nor", "profound" and "ignite" in the same sentence.

by mcrose on Nov 28, 2007 12:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I think all things considered Laffey wins the spot. He does everything Sowers does, only better. I just see no argument for Sowers other than he was a high draft pick and Laffey dramatically improved this year.

by Joe on Nov 28, 2007 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

He has one thing Laffey doesn't have - a half-season of great success in the major leagues. Any kind of history like that will get you a second chance, provided you come into ST and perform decently.

Let's say they're even, performance wise, coming out of ST at the end of March. Sowers is older, represents more investment, and looks more like the '06 version than the '07 version. Do you really think the FO would send Sowers to Buffalo rather than Laffey?

by mcrose on Nov 28, 2007 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Laffey's year last year was pretty darn good. He posted a 3.87 FIP, 4.19 xFIP, 62.4 GB% (Carmona led the league with a 64.3 GB% for reference) That was better than Sowers' 4.65 FIP, 4.76 xFIP. Sowers also K'd batters at about one full K less per 9 innings, and benefited from a 76.3 LOB% where Laffey was unlucky with a 65.5 LOB%. Laffey also did this almost a full year younger than Sowers.

The one thing that would support your argument was Sowers Runs Allowed was more than a run less per game than Laffey, but a look at some of the "luck" stats would provide pretty strong support for why this occurred.

by hans on Nov 28, 2007 11:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I wonder if people wake up realize that the post-2007 view of Laffey isn't very different from the post-2006 view of Sowers. Both guys got called up and had good success in the majors.

However, Sowers first audition was a hell of a lot better than Laffey's. Lower WHIP, went deeper into games and had a better ERA. In 14 starts in 2006, Sowers reached the completed 7 or more innings in 6 of 14 starts. Laffey didn't accomplish that once. Also Laffey made pitched 6 or more innings only 3 times in 9 starts.

Lastly, why does everyone assume that Laffey would be immune to the same problems that plagued Sowers in 2007? His stuff is just as good, if not worse, than Sowers'. Also, please re-watch Laffey's starts. He is usually pretty good going through the lineup the first time and sometimes even the second time. But hitters catch up to him by the 3rd time through the order, much like hitters did with Paul Byrd.

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Yeah, it wasn't that long ago Sowers was coming off back to back CG shutouts and was causing quite a bit of delirious expectation.

by mcrose on Nov 28, 2007 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

what people?

one can no more ignore Sowers's 07 as they can assume Laffey will do the same in 08, at least till it happens.

who is everyone?

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Personally, I don't see Laffey as the second coming, I just have a touch more confidence in him (at this point) than Sowers. I think what's giving rise to these perceptions is a little of Column A and a little of Column B.

Column A would be the good ol' what-have-you-done-for-me-lately, whereas Column B would be Laffey's track record as a groundball pitcher. I think, when comparing two soft-tossing lefties, that we're just more comfortable with the guy who's more likely to make'em put it on the ground.

Of course, I'm not disagreeing with you in any way.

by ManchildinBeantown on Nov 28, 2007 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Sowers' 06 was not a hell of a lot better than Laffey's 07. In fact, it was appreciably worse. Why are we judging solely based on WHIP? Laffey struck out more guys in his debut, walked a similar amount of batters, but had worse luck. Compare his 65.5 LOB% to Sowers' 76.3 LOB% in 06. But Laffey still managed to be a league average pitcher with such unlucky numbers. How so? His GB% was second in the league, only Carmona induced a better percentage of groundballs. When you get so many guys to hit balls into the ground, you can afford to be unlucky sometimes. That's why Sowers was a terrible pitcher when he had a similar LOB % to Laffey in 07. He can't afford to be that unlucky with a 39.8 GB%.

No one in their right mind thought Sowers' 06 debut was sustainable. In fact, Ryan wrote an article about how unless he improved his rate stats he would significant;y regress. And he did. So I was way more impressed with Laffey in 07 than I was with Sowers in 06.

by Joe on Nov 28, 2007 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

From memory and from just looking at the stats, I'd have to take Sowers in '06 over Laffey in '07.

I like Laffey too, and love the ground ball outs he gets. I just don't think Sowers record from being drafted to the end of the '06 season in Cleveland was a fluke, and that he's a good bet to rebound from last year. If he shows that he has, I think he'll get the nod.

Of course as pointed out elsewhere, if Cliff Lee stays around and manages to have a dominant spring, Laffey and Sowers may start '08 as Bisons.

by mcrose on Nov 28, 2007 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I'm not saying he can't rebound. I'm saying even a rebounded Sowers won't be as good as Laffey. This is of course barring that Sowers not only bounces back, he actually improves. And I'm not talking about his ERA.

Also when people say his velocity went up, what are we talking about here? 90? 92?

by Joe on Nov 28, 2007 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Pretty much. That was one of the major differences from '06 where he was usually around 90 or so. First part of last year it seemed he was 85-88. By the time he finished at Buffalo he was hitting 90 with regularity and just looking and pitching better all around.

by mcrose on Nov 28, 2007 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Why are we judging solely based on WHIP?

Not just WHIP, but also RA and IP/start

Compare his 65.5 LOB% to Sowers' 76.3 LOB% in 06. But Laffey still managed to be a league average pitcher with such unlucky numbers. How so? His GB% was second in the league, only Carmona induced a better percentage of groundballs. When you get so many guys to hit balls into the ground, you can afford to be unlucky sometimes.

How does this follow? LOB rates aren't the same for crappy pitchers and good pitchers. To argue that this is an indicator of luck is a little dubious.

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Nevermind. His LOB% is out of whack for a pitcher with his peripherals, as was Sowers' 2006 (but in the other direction). Both has similar FIPs in their first go at the majors.

by crazymoloh on Nov 28, 2007 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Their FIP aren't slightly similar. and neither are their GB %. Laffey wins.

by Joe on Nov 28, 2007 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

According to this article LOB% isn't simply all luck, but the correlation strength is .28 about as much control as a pitcher HR/G rate. A weak correlation. The league avg. hovers around 71%. Both Sowers (88.3 IP) and Laffey (49.3 IP) had relatively small sample sizes, their variance away from the league avg. is more likely due to luck than repeatable skill.

Hey chuck, mark me down for two correlation coefficient posts!

by hans on Nov 28, 2007 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Sorry dude I totally said the same thing you did without first checking all the responses. We see it eye to eye.

by hans on Nov 28, 2007 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

if he's still an indian, is there any scenario where Lee doesn't come into spring training, and the start of the season for that mater, with a spot on the rotation. contract, history, and option status have to put sowers and laffey in buffalo to battle it out for the first call when lee gets waived or someone gets injured?

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 12:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

This probably will be the case, barring a trade or Byrd suspension. It definitely won't hurt either of them to get some more work in Buffalo.

by Pronktastic on Nov 28, 2007 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Oddly enough, it had not occurred to me that the last spot in the rotation is Lee's to lose. I'd still like to see what he could do out of the bullpen, though. I suppose popular perception of Lee suggests that he might not be amenable, but we don't really know that, do we?

I may tap this drum lightly and sporadically throughout the offseason.

by ManchildinBeantown on Nov 28, 2007 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

No, I think you're spot-on with that line of thought about the #5 spot not being Lee's to lose. The big contract might give him a head start on his competition, but it didn't stop the front office from sending him down to Buffalo last season. The one other thing in Lee's favor is that he has had success over more than just the short term, whereas Laffey and Sowers have only put up good numbers over only half a season at best...

As far as going into the bullpen, I seem to remember Lee kicking a fit about it when he was coming up thru the system, almost from day one after coming over in the Bartolo Colon deal. Also, I don't think his stuff is conducive to success in middle relief or as a matchup guy.

How come... we would all love to see Bob Feller show up at a Cavs game wearing a Detroit Pistons hat? --Les Levine

by Casey Jones on Dec 1, 2007 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

out of options = the spot is his to lose

by Jay on Dec 2, 2007 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I belive the Bull Durham quote is along the lines of:

"If you believe you're playing well because you're getting laid, or because you're not getting laid, or because you wear women's underwear, then you are. And you should know that"

i think sometimes the sabernomically minded (just like economists) sometimes forgot that their subjects are irrational people

As General Manager of this team, I demand to know when I'm getting a start.

by bigbrabbs on Nov 28, 2007 12:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Confidence comes from effort and skill. Sowers effort has always been and always will be top notch. His skills while improving still are not of a dominate player. As he matures his skills (i.e mental approach to the game, setting up hitters) will become very good. His baseball skills (fastball, break on off speed pitches, changeup) will also hopefully get better with time and better mechanics.

Hopefully he will never become satisfied with just good enough and some how break all the molds but most likely he will become a gutty number three pitcher who teams underestimate. Failure either drives you to become better or drives you out of the game. I don't buy this "I have never failed before" stuff because even extremely talented athletes fail consistently in baseball. What he is really saying is I have never failed this often, therefore I didn't know how to respond to it.

Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Nov 28, 2007 2:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Number three starter, gutty or not, seems to be the highest possible realistic ceiling for Sowers. If he does that I'll say he's breaking the mould.

by afh4 on Nov 28, 2007 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

from now on, that is how i'm spelling 'mould'.

got any other alternative spellings that sexy up a word like that? 'theatre' never did it for me, but if i can find a way to get more u's in my wourds i think i would just be happy as can be.

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

no doubt about it, but a sound, efficacious and, most importantly, honourable way to do it would be to use British spelling.

by DocNo on Nov 28, 2007 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Coutluangus.

by fleerdon on Nov 28, 2007 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

excellent!

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

favourite

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 28, 2007 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

You could pay for lessons with a cheque.

by Pronktastic on Nov 28, 2007 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

ooh, like this one too.

by Brick. on Nov 28, 2007 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I like 'cheque' a lot. I think it's way prettier. I use 'mould' because I can't think of mold as anythng but, ya know, mold.

by afh4 on Nov 28, 2007 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

centre is another good one, especially when talking about politics. "I'm centre-left / centre-right," etc.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 28, 2007 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I prefer them all: centre, defence, offence, armour and all of that. But then my family is English so that is how I am used to them.

I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Nov 28, 2007 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

A discussion about alternative spellings without including me? For shame!

Aboot that...as an aside, I needed to analyse my favourite colour for the centre of a theatre where I was practising. Uhhhhh....beaver..uhhhh...hockey....uhhhh....maplesyrup.

by supermarioelia on Nov 28, 2007 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I'm willing to go along when it comes to the centre red line in hockey, but when it comes to politics I'm pretty much a centerist.

How come... we would all love to see Bob Feller show up at a Cavs game wearing a Detroit Pistons hat? --Les Levine

by Casey Jones on Dec 1, 2007 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

I'm a big fan of grey.

by CU Adam on Nov 28, 2007 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Frankly, I have no idea whether I use gray or grey the majority of the time.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 28, 2007 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Except for the CFL's Gray Cup

How come... we would all love to see Bob Feller show up at a Cavs game wearing a Detroit Pistons hat? --Les Levine

by Casey Jones on Dec 1, 2007 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

For the life of me I can't figure out how to embed YouTube vids, but this seems awfully appropriate.

by nickjs21 on Nov 28, 2007 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Oi! 'arry! 'ave a butcher at dis brass. Makes me wanna j arthur with me new china.

by Pronktastic on Nov 29, 2007 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sowers Explains

Uncanny how the undulation of the used utterances are uniquely unusual

How come... we would all love to see Bob Feller show up at a Cavs game wearing a Detroit Pistons hat? --Les Levine

by Casey Jones on Dec 1, 2007 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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ICBWDSTGFO550K

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