Padres now hot on Jason Bay

by IndyDave on Dec 12, 2007 11:42 AM EST

Buster Olney is reporting the Padres are making a push for Jason Bay now that Fukadome has signed with the Cubs

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3151599

sounds like the Padres may be willing to take Matt Morris off the Bucs hands (what a strange trade that was)as well as Xavier Nady.

Wonder if Shapiro could interest San Diego in any of platoon of platoon outfielders?

Tweet Comment 31 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

Apparently our talks for Bay didn't include Lee or Shoppach. The Bucs wanted a combo of our top prospects, according to Hoynes. No wonder Shap balked

by world dictator on Dec 12, 2007 12:08 PM EST reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

Good! Let the Padres have him - that'll at least end the talks about him here. Plus we won't make that mistake to go after a declining LF with balky knees.

Officially starting up and driving the trade for Bedard bandwagon. Also, local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer."

by mjmarble on Dec 12, 2007 12:15 PM EST reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

You mean another declining LF with balky knees besides Dellucci.

"Hey, you! Get off our lawn!" -- New Detroit Tigers Team Motto

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Dec 12, 2007 1:39 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

Exactly!

Officially starting up and driving the trade for Bedard bandwagon. Also, local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer."

by mjmarble on Dec 12, 2007 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

I live in SD for the past 7 years, its been my experience that the if the Padres are interested in a player, that most likely means that they'll overpay for him and that in 3 years or less he'll be broken down.

To be totally honest, I am so happy I am a CLE fan first and an SD fan way second. You can see the right way to manage a small market org and the wrong way.

You want to see a depressing lineup each and every year, take a look at the Padres.

by cclemens31 on Dec 12, 2007 2:04 PM EST reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

yeah, but they fleeeeeced shapiro for kouzMVPanof and dolan is soooo cheap.

by Brick. on Dec 12, 2007 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

If the Padres acquire Bay they will immediately become the favorites in the NL West. Their offense has struggle for a variety of reason the past few years but adding Bay would solve one of the most glaring needs, a power bat. Bay is going to have a fantastic bounce back year and when he wins a sliver slugger and runs in the top 5 for MVP we will have wished that we traded some of our prospects for a stud LF.

Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Dec 12, 2007 2:44 PM EST reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

File this one for next year's "Dumb predictions that were made last year" thread.

by CU Adam on Dec 12, 2007 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

The Bay predictions are farfetched, but it's not unlikely that the Pads win the division next year. They very nearly had it in '07, and the concensus seems to be that the Rockies played way over their heads for too long an the D-Bags outperformed their pythag. I don't think anyone would be stunned if they won the division.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Dec 12, 2007 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

I don't find it to be dumb or farfetched -- except for Petco and the anemic offense around him. Petco will depress his HR, and his teammates will depress his RBI, to an extent where even given a huge bounceback, he'd be unlikely to attract attention on the MVP ballot or to win a Silver Slugger.

But I think it's well within the realm of possibility that Bay shakes off his injuries or heebeejeebies or whatever it is, bounces back for a huge year such that he deserves some MVP attention and/or a Silver Slugger.

Would I predict it? No. Can I say a prediction like that is dumb? No.

by Jay on Dec 12, 2007 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

I can't wait to see how Bay is going to play all 3 OF positions and win a silver slugger.

by emd2k3 on Dec 12, 2007 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

You have to start somewhere, don't you?

When the Padres kept Hoffman (and Giles) from defecting to us two years ago, I opined that they had "won" the player but lost the larger effort by refusing to rebuild. Since then, they've won 88 and 89 games, taking one division title one year and coming within one out of winning the Wild Card the next.

They obviously have been in exactly the position where it makes sense to be spending, i.e, where incremental improvements could well make the difference between contending and not, or making the postseason and not. While that says as much about their division and league as anything else, you still have to give them credit for choosing to continue to duct-tape together a marginal contender, and for succeeding with that approach.

by Jay on Dec 12, 2007 5:55 PM EST up reply actions

That won't be easy for Bay in my opinion!

Hello E5,

No offense, but besides the fact that Bay is not a sure thing to bounce back, also take into consideration that he will be going from one of the better hitters' parks to one of the worst hitters' parks in baseball. That alone may help to suppress any "outstanding" year by Bay (i.e. 30+ HRs.)

Any bounceback he does make (presuming he makes one) will be masked quite a bit by Petco Park's spacious dimensions, so he'd have to be "extraordinary" to even have a chance of winning the Silver Slugger award or being in the Top 5 in the NL MVP in my opinion if he is traded to the Padres.

And like others have said, San Diego could probably win the division even without Bay if the D'Backs and Rockies both fall back this year and if the Dodgers' offense (and adding Andruw Jones is not a sure bet to fire it up either, especially if he has a season like 2007) and shaky starting pitching (outside of guys such as Penny and Billingsley) keep them from winning the division again, certainly realistic possibilities.

Just my 2 cents - no offense.

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Dec 12, 2007 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

Re: That won't be easy for Bay in my opinion!

Someday, indiansfan, I want you to just say something to offend somebody. You make such great points, yet.... You're always so polite - too polite methinks.

Officially starting up and driving the trade for Bedard bandwagon. Also, local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer."

by mjmarble on Dec 12, 2007 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

Re: That won't be easy for Bay in my opinion!

He may be too polite, but at least he isn't quiet. If he were quiet, we'd have to worry.

by Jay on Dec 12, 2007 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

Re: That won't be easy for Bay in my opinion!

too polite? maybe you were meaning too wordy?

I keed, I keed ifan ;)

by talonk on Dec 12, 2007 6:39 PM EST up reply actions

Too wordy - me?! LOL! :-)

I know you kid (or "keed," if you prefer,) talonk - it's all good! :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Dec 12, 2007 6:59 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks! :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Dec 12, 2007 6:58 PM EST up reply actions

I'll work on that - maybe it will be a New Years'

Resolution, LOL! :-)

After all, it is Christmas time, and you're supposed to be "good for goodness sake," right? Unless of course you prefer that Harley Davidson commercial on SpikeTV that has what looks to be the Grim Reaper (or something like him) that is wearing a Harley-Davidson jacket riding on a sleigh and has these vicious looking dogs pulling his sleigh.

He brings lumps of coal and large bones to people's homes, one of which is grabbed by a vicious-looking dog. The commercial states, "Be bad for badness sake."

Like I said, there's always next year! :-)

For now, though, thanks for the compliment (don't get too annoyed by the thanks, LOL! :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Dec 12, 2007 6:57 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

Indiansfan, you are indeed absolutely polite. I'm gonna risk disagreeing with the majority here and say that the only thing Jason Bay needs is to be off the Pittsburgh Pirates. There are only two places worse: Washington and Baltimore. Being the main offensive threat on a team that is eliminated by Sept. 1 every year is a drain. He will be better unless he can't walk.

I wouldn't trade the farm system to get him. I wouldn't want to see us give up Laffey or Gutz. No Cabrera either. But aside from that... The one thing about these discussions is that we all overvalue prospects. Marte is the best example.

by EssexAce on Dec 12, 2007 8:31 PM EST reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

Every know and then I think I value Marte too highly. But if he played for another team, would I want to trade for him? Probably.

by nickjs21 on Dec 13, 2007 1:15 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

Every now. F.

by nickjs21 on Dec 13, 2007 1:15 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

Marte is not the best example of this. The best example is when everyone goes nuts for a 22- or 23-year-old guy in Kinston. Marte is a great example of how little almost all fans understand about evaluating prospects.

by Jay on Dec 13, 2007 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

WHERE'S MATT WHITNEY? HONEY, I LEFT MATT WHITNEY RIGHT BY THE DOOR AND NOW HE'S GONE!

OHMYGOD WE'VE LOST MATT WHITNEY!

by afh4 on Dec 13, 2007 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

Maybe the dingo ate Matt Whitney.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Dec 13, 2007 1:53 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

What was your original take on Marte?

Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Dec 13, 2007 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

Not much different than it is now. A guy who showed tremendous all-around hitting ability, performing very well against advanced pitching at a very young age, and who had progressed successfully and without interruption, one level per year, four years in a row, and for whom nothing was left but a shot to play in the majors. Which he basically has still never gotten.

Obviously I'd have preferred to see him dominate in Triple-A if he was going to get stuck there, but it's been a screwy situation. I see little reason to assume he's worse now, coming off age 23 in Triple-A, than he was two years ago, coming off age 21 in Triple-A.

by Jay on Dec 13, 2007 6:12 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

But why hasn't he dominated at AAA? This is the question that bothers me about him. Two years, its not simple enough to say that "he got bored". In 709 at bats in the past two years he has posted an OBP below .322. Thats a large enough sample size of at-bats that it should have teased out any sort (he got bored, injury, had a cold, he was moody, etc) excuse.

The only thing I can think of is that someone (maybe Marte himself) has messed with his mechanics and can't right the ship.

by hans on Dec 13, 2007 10:03 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

Your on the right track Hans. I would argue his mechanics were never sound to begin with and that his success early was due to physical strength and not skill. Until his mechanics improve he will always be a AAAA or as the new saying goes a National Leaguer.

Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist

by E5 on Dec 13, 2007 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Padres now hot on Jason Bay

hans, I can't answer those questions definitively, all I can say is that I think boredom, injury, moodiness and mechanics are more likely explanations than the idea that all four seasons, ages 18 through 21, were a mirage. That latter concept simply is not credible. Players have fluke seasons, occasionally even two in a row, but not four in a row. And while some players peak early, or late, compared to the average peak age of 27, nobody peaks at 21.

Edgar, Marte had a .12 walk rate over those seasons, and I don't see what that had to do with raw strength. The idea that a 20-year-old in Double-A could have a raw strength advantage over his age 23-24 competitors is dubious in any event.

by Jay on Dec 14, 2007 12:13 AM EST up reply actions