Did the Pirates pull out of Bay talks?

by world dictator on Dec 16, 2007 1:16 PM EST

Apparently the new word is that the pirates ended talks with the Indians regarding Jason Bay because a package of Gutz, Shoppach,Lee and a minor leaguer was not enough for Bay and Ronny Paulino.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/pirates-pulled.html

Man, I'm loving Huntington more and more everyday. Thats WAY too much for us to give up for Bay. It doesn't make sense for us to trade our young up and coming RF/CF for an aging LF who puts up questionable numbers.

The fact that Gutz was even in the deal makes me skeptical of this report. I think Shoppach and Lee is a decent deal. But I wouldn't trade Bay for Gutz straight up. It's not that I think Gutz is the second coming, but I'm very skeptical of Bay. But even if it was a good deal it's a lateral deal at best.

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Re: Did the Pirates pull out of Bay talks?

This is the same Post-Gazzette guy who seems to have been getting this story wrong from the start. His version directly contradicts Hoynes' -- that Shoppach and Lee were never involved, but rather prospects -- and Hoynes' version makes a lot more sense for the Pirates.

by Jay on Dec 16, 2007 1:32 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Did the Pirates pull out of Bay talks?

agreed

by world dictator on Dec 16, 2007 1:55 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Did the Pirates pull out of Bay talks?

Another Jason Bay thread? It must be a new week ..need to mark it off the calendar.

by Toxicadam on Dec 16, 2007 6:28 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Did the Pirates pull out of Bay talks?

Sorry

Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist 774

by E5 on Dec 16, 2007 6:31 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Did the Pirates pull out of Bay talks?

I think the trade would have been fair, and probably would have helped the Tribe more. Suppose the reported names, Gutierrez, Shoppach, Lee, and a minor leaguer were true to get Bay and Paulino. Then the Indians would still have a fine backup catcher to Victor Martinez in Paulino. They still do not have any room for Lee in the rotation with C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey competing for the last spot. And don't forget Adam Miller, baring any injuries. The Indians also have an abundance of mediocre outfielders and could afford to give up Gutierrez and a minor league OF. Bay would then play right, and the Indians would STILL have several players that could perform well in RF, of Ben Francisco, Shin Soo Choo, Dave Dellucci, and Brad Snyder. Okay maybe none of those guys would be as good as Gutierrez immediately, but they could be down the road and the Indians would have an instant force in the lineup with Bay. Say what you want about Bay, but he did have 21 homers and 84 RBI in a down year. The guy has the skills to be a 100 RBI man, somthing the Tribe could really use, and a change of scenary might do the trick. The guy is only 29 and is a proven bat for a Tribe team that is ready to win now.

by Wild Thing on Dec 16, 2007 7:49 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Did the Pirates pull out of Bay talks?

* error my bad

Bay would then play LEFT

by Wild Thing on Dec 16, 2007 7:51 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Did the Pirates pull out of Bay talks?

I think the trade would have been fair, and probably would have helped the Tribe more.

That is probably true, in the sense that the upgrade from Gutierrez to Bay probably would outweight the downgrade from Shoppach to Paulino, the former pair being starters and the latter being backups, and since losing Lee may not matter at all given our 4-5-6-7-8 starter setup.

But it would also hurt the Tribe in the sense that we would lose trading chips that should have yielded more. We could trade Garko and Lee and six prospects for Casey Kotchman, and that too would "help the Tribe more" in terms of the direct impact on the major league roster, but it would be stupid in terms of other trades that could be made. So clearly the wrong question is being asked here.

We need trades that primarily help the 2008 club, but we can't throw getting reasonable value out the window. I believe the trade as reported by the Gazette would have been akin to the Eduardo-Asdrubal swap, but in the wrong direction. And I believe the report was not based in reality as well.

by Jay on Dec 16, 2007 9:31 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Did the Pirates pull out of Bay talks?

I don't get the relentless Bay discussion. He's a solid outfielder with a history of injury who's probably beyond his prime. Why would we give up three major league players for him, especially if one of them is Gutierrez, who is only 25 and might turn out to be a really good player (I still think he's Devon White). I agree with those of you who think this is Pittsburgh writers hallucinating -- Huntingon would certainly have accepted that trade if offered. He knows the Indians roster well and would recognize that trade as very good for the Bucs. No way Shapiro offered that, unless there's something about Gutierrez we don't know.

by peter m on Dec 16, 2007 9:09 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Did the Pirates pull out of Bay talks?

I too do not understand the importance of acquiring Jason Bay, especially after such a down year, amid question marks about his production and bum knee. Gutierrrez has a chance to be a valuable player - he gained a lot of confidence, and needs more plate discipline, as he chases high fastballs when behind in the count.
The trade as reported in the Pittsburgh newspaper, i.e. Bay and Paulino for Lee, Shoppach and Gutierrez no doubt Huntington would take in a minute, so everyone pretty much correctly discounts that account.
Re the Haren trade, also I'll gladly make no trade, he is not worth 6 prospects (what Ariz relinquished), and I expect Sowers and Laffey to do a reasonable job as the 5th starter. I don't think Byrd can produce at last year's levels and may be pushed out of the rotation by mid year, especially if Adam Miller can stay in one piece and be the dominant pitcher he can be.

by DenverIndian on Dec 16, 2007 10:28 PM EST 0 recs

According to a report I read recently,

the Pirates were not thrilled with Paulino's effort behind the plate this past season and would hold him to being at a higher standard behind the plate defensively in 2008, so the dropoff from Shoppach to Paulino may be more equivalent to the upgrade from Gutierrez to Bay, especially if Bay doesn't bounce back as much as we'd expect him to, essentially boosting our offense while downgrading our defense. Granted, Bay would play everyday, while Paulino wouldn't, but having that great defensive presence behind the plate every five days was a positive strength of the Indians this past season, and from what I've read and heard, Paulino isn't as strong of a defensive catcher as Shoppach is, so I think the overall net gain from acquiring Bay would be a minimal one, depending on how great of a year he'd have with us.

Sorry - I don't have the link handy where I read that (may have been ESPN, I believe; I was on the site a few days ago.)

Combine that with the fact we'd have to give up 3 MLers AND a Minor Leaguer for Bay and Paulino, and I think it's way too much, and likely, a Pittsburgh writer's wishful thinking.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Dec 17, 2007 12:37 AM EST 0 recs

Re: According to a report I read recently,

For you to believe that, you'd have to think the dropoff from Shoppach to Paulino was four times greater than the dropoff from Bay to Gutierrez.

by Jay on Dec 17, 2007 3:10 AM EST up 0 recs

I don't believe he's that much of a dropoff, but

I still think it's enough of a dropoff to make one hesitate a bit about replacing Shoppach with Paulino.

The real dilemma is, how much will Bay bounce back - there are some who think he'll bounce back greatly, while I've read some analysis (posted here by someone a few to several Bay threads back) that suggests that Bay's bat speed is already in decline.

It's really his performance compared to Gutierrez's performance that would help to determine whether dropping from Shoppach to Paulino is a worthwhile tradeoff. Based on the uncertainty surrounding Bay and the promising signs from Gutierrez, as well as Gutierrez's superior defense in RF, compared to Bay's decent defense in LF, and it's a dropoff I'd prefer not making.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Dec 17, 2007 6:41 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: I don't believe he's that much of a dropoff, b

Gutiérrez
Aug 2HR 9RBI .244 BA .306 OBP .449 SLG
Sept 4HR 11RBI .247BA .305 OBP .424 SLG

The only thing promising about that is that it can't get much worse and still be a full time player in the major leagues.

I like Gutierrez also but lets face the facts he wasn't that good.

Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist 774

by E5 on Dec 17, 2007 6:50 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: I don't believe he's that much of a dropoff, b

whatever dude.

formerly 'tourist

by jhon on Dec 17, 2007 7:21 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: I don't believe he's that much of a dropoff, b

What's the point of isolating two months? If there's no external event that made those two months different, then you're just looking at an arbitrarily small sample. Here's Franklin's 2006 numbers vs. league average (park adjusted) ...

avg .266-.275
obp .318-.342
slg .472-.429
ops .790-.772

So he's hitting a hair above league average, and he is a skill position player, even if he isn't playing at a skill position. He's young and still has only 408 major league AB, so there's plenty of reason to think he can continue to develop and adjust. The OBP (walk rate) is concerning, but he improved his walk rate markedly the last few years -- it was .111 in Triple-A compared with .074 at the lower levels -- which is reason for optimism in itself.

A roster full of Franklins would be expected to win at least ten more games the following year. Maybe I'll ask Nate Silver ...

by Jay on Dec 17, 2007 7:46 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: I don't believe he's that much of a dropoff, b

He is still young in terms of major league playing experience but not overall. The last two months were highlighted for a few reasons.

He played more often these two months.
The scouting report was more developed on him by this point.
He had time to adjust to the major leagues by this point and at this point last year Kouzmanoff was getting better and Franklin appeared to be regressing to a degree.

Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist 774

by E5 on Dec 17, 2007 7:51 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: I don't believe he's that much of a dropoff, b

Don't know what could make you think that about Kouzmanoff. His minor league splits clearly show that he peaked in May and June, and he went .214/.279/.411/.690 in his September callup -- by which point he was already 25, by the way.

In other words, Kouzmanoff at 25 was worse than Gutierrez at 24.5, in addition to being a fringe defender at 3B rather than a very good CF with a great arm for RF. Just so we're clear on that.

by Jay on Dec 17, 2007 8:40 PM EST up 0 recs