Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

by Fios on Dec 20, 2007 2:43 PM EST Comment 18 comments

I have to agree with the guy who wrote this, I can't see the logic behind extending him before you've watched him go through a season as an AL starter. But I fully support the Tigers wasting money and hope this proves to be a bad investment.

http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/12/20/the-tigers-want-to-go-steady-with-dontrelle/

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Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

Well, the contract's not outrageous (not Carlos Silva 4 years/$40 mil outrageous) but I agree in general... you'd think they'd want to see what he could do in the AL for at least one full season.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Dec 20, 2007 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

Sorry, meant 4 years, $44 mil for Silva.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Dec 20, 2007 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

Anybody else salivating at the idea of facing D-train on a regular basis through the 2010 season? Me thinks we might enjoy this one - not only did the blow through all their prospects but the guaranteed that we'd face a rapidly declining pitcher for the next 3 years.

Officially starting up and driving the trade for Bedard bandwagon. Also, local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer."

by mjmarble on Dec 20, 2007 2:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

Rapidly declining? Does Dontrelle's aging process have him jumping from age 25 to age 35?

Bill James' Projections for 2008

200 IP, 4.23 ERA. I'll buy that.

by crazymoloh on Dec 20, 2007 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

Even with the switch of leagues?

Officially starting up and driving the trade for Bedard bandwagon. Also, local "Barfield Bounces Back Believer."

by mjmarble on Dec 20, 2007 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

I think that prediction was prior to the trade. The difference between leagues (especially on predicting pitching performance) is quite substantial. Bill James, even with the aggressive prediction, still sees Willis with K:BB ratio of 2.10 in the NL. I'm sorry but that doesn't fly very well in the AL, unless you are an extreme GB% guy, and Willis (46.4% in 2007) is not.

by hans on Dec 20, 2007 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

another projections, ZiPS, has him at 4.34 (same exact numbers for both teams, so i'm assuming they didnt translate his stats from florida to detroit). BP (not sure which writer) mentioned he could knock half a run off his ERA just by getting detroit's defense instead of florida's.

and jay, i said i'd get back on this: "Nate Silver: We'll most likely have the PECOTA's out some time between my birthday (January 13) and the Super Bowl. That's about the same pace as we were at last year. They should be worth the wait, I hope. We're doing a lot more with platoon splits and first/second half numbers".

anyway, willis is a risky bet by any measure, he is still young despite the declining peripherals, his leg kick may be enough of a gimmick to give him an edge despite the league change, and he was pulled in his last start of the season, he may have been hiding an injury for a good part of the year, and/or he may still be hurt, all that said i'm guessing a generic middle of the rotation starter ~ 4.50-ish ERA

by 7foot3 on Dec 20, 2007 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

Since Bill James is apparently God, I will mildly accept those number.

Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist 774

by E5 on Dec 20, 2007 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

Call it paranoia or superstition, but I'm not ready to jump on the "Dontrelle is terrible and will only get worse in the AL" bandwagon yet. He's still young enough that a rebound could be in order.

Hey, care to take any bets on Dontrelle's 2008 stats?

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Dec 20, 2007 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

Smart deal for Dontrelle, a bit dumb for the Tigers. He gets paid like a #3 starter and is very unlikely to be any better than that.

They were already de facto on the hook for 2008, but probably for only $8 million in arbitration or so given his lousy 2007. His old contract status was essnetially club option for 2009 in the neighborhood of $12 million, depending on performance. So they essentially picked up the 2009 club option a year early and gave him $9 million for 2010.

It just doesn't seem even-handed. An even-handed deal would have guarnateed 2009 for Dontrelle in exchange for a club option in 2010. Throw couple million into the 2010 buyout and you've got reasonable equity.

by Jay on Dec 20, 2007 3:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

This could all change after we see where salaries go in the next 2-3 years. I never would have imagined a guy like Paul Byrd getting 7.5 mil/yr., but it happened.

I'm in the camp that thinks that Dontrelle could bounce back and perform fairly well over the next few years.

by SpringTrainingFun on Dec 23, 2007 6:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

One of the strengths of Willis is his ability to deceive. I really believe he is going to have a great first half (especially with that lineup behind him). Possibly starting out 7-2 with 3.90 ERA. Something like that for a first half.

Then, once he starts visiting Central teams for the second and third time you will see him revert to form. But, it wouldn't shock me for him to finish 14-10 with a 4.5 ERA. Which is perfectly acceptable for a #3 pitcher.

by Toxicadam on Dec 20, 2007 3:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Tigers Give Dontrelle $29M Extension

He deceived himself into 4 BB/9 in the NL. That's just not going to get it done with 9 real hitters (or, well, more real than pitchers). His BABIP and LD/FB/GB ratios were all in line with his career numbers.

I say ERA over 5.

by gte619n on Dec 20, 2007 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs