2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Dec 21, 2007 12:54 PM EST Comment 38 comments

Dan Szymborski has posted the 2008 ZIPS projections for the Indians over at the Transaction Oracle at Baseball Think Factory. It's an interesting read, and a great way to get some outside perspective on what we should expect next year. I was interested to see the projection for Gutierrez; I've thought that the group here may be expecting a little too much from him next year. The mean projection for Franklin isn't all that thrilling, but look at the 'player spotlight' a little lower on the page, with the optimistic and pessimistic projections (15th percentile best and worst outcomes). There is a lot of variability; hopefully the consensus here is right, and Gutierrez' production is closer to the optimistic end of the spectrum.

Check it out, it's a good way to spend a Friday afternoon before the holidays. Certainly better than working.

0 recs | Comment 38 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Re: 2008 Projections

In the predictions thread from some time back, we collectively pegged Gutierrez for a .273/.329/.471 line with 20 home runs. Like I said then, I think we should do this sort of community projection for every player closer to spring training.

by nickjs21 on Dec 21, 2007 1:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections

I believe either USS Mariner or Lookout Landing did this, and after the year they posted the actual results vs. the community projection, highlighting which individual came closest to the actual result. They were interesting reads during a slow time.

by Pronktastic on Dec 21, 2007 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections

If we did them here of course I would be the closest because I am way better at projections then any one else here. LOL It would be fun for sure and I am also sure I would be pretty good.

Patience is a virtue but Champions don't need it. LGT resident kinesiologist 774

by E5 on Dec 21, 2007 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

numbers for Choo a little optimistic IMO.

by ASP on Dec 21, 2007 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

ooooo Looks like C.Lee is predicted to better than Paul Byrd, interesting.

Adam Miller looks better than any other starter not named Carmona or Sabathia.

by hans on Dec 21, 2007 3:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

We should have a pool for which Pronk will get his SB and CS.

by SanD on Dec 21, 2007 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

which game that is

by SanD on Dec 21, 2007 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

by fleerdon on Dec 21, 2007 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

THAT'S the kind of pool for which Pronk will get a stolen base.

by fleerdon on Dec 21, 2007 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Looking at Asdrubal's projections, we need to think about getting a new #2 hitter.

by Toxicadam on Dec 21, 2007 4:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

I love the guy as much as anyone here, but looking at his minor league lines, figure '07 MLB is a SSS, and I'd be quite happy with league-average for '08. ('cause that'd mean he'll only get better...)

by Voltaire on Dec 21, 2007 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

But as our #2 hitter?! You don't think .254 and .320 OBP is a tad on the low side for a playoff contending team?

by Toxicadam on Dec 21, 2007 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

It is pretty conventional for teams to have a mediocre or even bad hitter in the #2 spot, or even in the leadoff spot. No, that doesn't make it a good idea.

The more interesting question is whether the Indians (unlike some teams) actually know more about projecting their own players than the published projection systems.

by Jay on Dec 22, 2007 12:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

I think that a .700 OPS from Asdrubal (which is roughly what this system projects), playing up the middle of the diamond and in his age 22 season, would be a relative success for the player and the team, and it represents a significant upgrade from last season--before one factors in defense.

But yeah, we'd probably want to keep 'Drub out of the 2 spot. Based on these figures, I'd probably go with either Garko or Peralta.

The Oracle tells good news. 5.5 starters all better than league average (with the notable exception of Byrd and inclusion of Lee and Miller). The bullpen looks decent: good depth.
there's often the randomly great reliver season (will it be Harris, Slocum, Martin?).

formerly 'tourist

by jhon on Dec 22, 2007 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

I've been wondering myself about whether the Indians will consider re-inventing J.D. Martin as a reliever. He'd probably have a better chance of making it back to the 25-man.

by fleerdon on Dec 23, 2007 10:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Omar Vizquel's OPS didn't even sniff .700 in his age 22 season, and that guy's possibly on his way to Cooperstown. I think Drubs'll work out just fine.

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Dec 23, 2007 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

yeah, but next year, maybe we want a better OBP guy in the two hole.

by hans on Dec 24, 2007 3:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Things that surprised me.....

DEFENSE

Martinez is a fringe catcher? Exactly how?
Francisco profiles as a very good LF or RF
Blake is a fringe 3B?
I guess this isn't terribly surprising, but Asdrubal projects as an average shortstop
I know Marte received raves for defense in 2006, but I didn't think he'd rate as 'very good'
Crowe profiles as 'very good' at ALL three outfield spots! Wow! (I'm wowing either Crow's defense or BTF's recreational drug habits)

by crazymoloh on Dec 21, 2007 4:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

I could be wrong here, but I assume Fr is 'fair' and not 'fringe.'

As evidence, look at Delucci. His line would read fair in the corners, poor in center. Seems sensible.

by CBusSteve on Dec 21, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Doh. Dellucci.

by CBusSteve on Dec 21, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

That makes more sense.

So its,

Very Good
Average
Fair
Poor

I don't get why they have a 'Fair' AND 'Average'. Wonder if fair means replacement level and poor means 'pull your hair out' awful.

by crazymoloh on Dec 21, 2007 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Is there a reason they still list Kenny Lofton and Trot Nixon?

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Dec 21, 2007 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

They haven't signed with anyone yet, so they're still listed with their last team. They update the projections around/during spring training, and that update will reflect any player movement since the end of the '07 season.

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Dec 21, 2007 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Oof on that Jensen Lewis projection. And the Raffy Perez. And the Ed Mujica. And the Kobayashi.

I'd be interested to see how accurate ZIPS is for bullpen's generally.

Here's last years:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_cleveland_indians

The Bullpen projections there don't seem great but then again, that's one sample. Who knows.

by afh4 on Dec 21, 2007 6:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

- As noted, the defensive evaluations are Excellent, Very Good, Average, Fair, or Poor. This was initially borne out of laziness - I make a Diamond Mind ZiPS disk side-by-side with the projections and it uses those defensive ratings for range - but the more I think about it, while we've come a long ways in evaluating defense, it's probably actually a more reasonable reflection of the accuracy of evaluating and projecting defense. In all honesty, our methods aren't really accurate enough to say a player is 3 as opposed to 6 runs better than average, but good enough to place players in tiers.

- Lofton and Nixon are listed with the Indians simply because, when I do the team-by-teams before the end of the year, I list players with their most recent team. The final build in the spring won't have them with the Indians. I do it this way because I don't want to keep the bookkeeping at keeping track of 2000 players to delay the projections.

by DSzymborski on Dec 21, 2007 6:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

How does Franklin Gutierrez not rate as 'Ex' instead of 'Vg'? He posted a +22 in half a season of work in RF. Not to mention, almost no one has a better ZR than him.

by crazymoloh on Dec 21, 2007 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

I tend to be conservative with defensive projections, simply because of the larger error bands. If Gutierrez is even 80% as good as he was in 2007 in 2008, it'll be enough for me to project an EX rating. It's simply a matter of it being only 578 innings.

And I do have Gutierrez's 2007 defensive season as phenomenal: 30 runs better than average in right rated out to a full season. In fact, of seasons of 500 innings, it would be the best RF defensive in the 21 years that zone rating has been tracked, with only Kearns '02 and Nunnally '95 within 5 runs, so one could reasonable argue that I'm being too conservative.

by DSzymborski on Dec 22, 2007 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

I'd be interested to see how accurate ZIPS is for bullpen's generally.

I don't think anyone does well with projecting relievers! Relievers have massive year-to-year swings, partially due to the lower inning totals and usage differences. I think I'd be worried if ZiPS was nailing all relievers!

Interestingly enough, I was doing some additional research on closer projections last year and to my surprise, found that a pretty good chunk of the amount that closers beat their peripheral ERAs was due to the "walkoff loss" effect. In essence, blowing the game on the road actually saves 3-6 runs a year that a closer "should" be allowing.

by DSzymborski on Dec 21, 2007 6:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Yep, that's all I was driving at in general: the volatility of relievers.

I'd never considered that with closers and walk off losses but it makes total sense.

Thanks for doing the projections. They're an interesting read.

by afh4 on Dec 21, 2007 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

I'd like to second that 'thank you'. I really enjoy your work at BTF.

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Dec 21, 2007 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

A third thanks, and I appreciate you explaining the projections yourself.

by nickjs21 on Dec 22, 2007 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Add another thanks. Nice work and thanks for coming by here to explain.

I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Dec 22, 2007 12:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Thank you all for the comments!

by DSzymborski on Dec 22, 2007 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

The first question that came to mind when I looked at this page was about the number of ABs each player had. I don't think it's possible for all of the following to be true in the same season:
Grady - 637 ABs
Franklin - 467 ABs
Dellucci - 226 ABs
Choo - 413 ABs
BenFran - 492 ABs
JMike - 312 ABs
Cooper - 372 ABs
Snyder - 373 ABs
Goleski - 439 ABs
Crowe - 528 ABs

That seems like an awful lot of ABs going around. Obviously this isn't intended to be a projection of ABs at the major league level for all these guys. Two possibilities occured to me:

These could be projections of "If they get this many ABs, this is how they will do" - hypothetical type of projections. If this is the case, why the (seemingly) random AB numbers?
These could be level-blind projections. I.e. Crowe will get 528 total ABs at the level(s) he plays in. If this is the case, wouldn't the guys projected to play in the minors have more optimistic projections (other than ABs)?

I'm not superstitious, I'm just a little stitious.

by jakesinger777 on Dec 22, 2007 5:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Not much of a mystery, considering the explanation is right there on the page:

ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

by Jay on Dec 22, 2007 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Fair enough, apparently I'm lazy.

Still wondering though, how did he come up with the projections for ABs? They seem random, don't they? I understand they don't really mean anything, but I am still curious as to where he got them from.

I'm not superstitious, I'm just a little stitious.

by jakesinger777 on Dec 22, 2007 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

Essentially, it's 4-year weighted previous at-bats (for hitters) or 3-year weighted previous batters faced (for pitchers), with estimated risk of injury based on historical injury rates. Think of it like an actuarial table showing your odds of still being alive after each subsequent year. They'll go down steadily, even though individual people generally won't die that smoothly and neatly, if that makes any sense.

by DSzymborski on Dec 23, 2007 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: 2008 Projections at Baseball Think Factory

i'd be ok with a .267/.389/.509 line from pronk next year. seems like a bit of an average though. i tend to think he will either slug .450 or .600 rather than something in between.

i would tend to think if CC pitches 214 with an era of 3.66 he would be K'ing more than 7/9ip. what do i know, though.

by emil minty on Dec 23, 2007 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs