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Which offer is better?

Amish_crossing_tiny by Buzz on

I need help here.  There are two offers for Santana being talked about.  The Yankees are offering Hughes and Melky Cabrera plus another prospect.  The Red Sox are offering Lester, Coco, ss prospect Lowrie and another prospect.

What I don't understand is why the Twins may think the Red Sox offer is better than the Yankees.  In my opinion, Hughes is much better than Lester.  Lester is a nice prospect, but Hughes is going to be an ace in two years.  Coco and Cabrera seem close enough, even though Cabrera hasn't proven himself as much as Coco has.  The difference between those two cannot be a deal breaker, can it?  Are the other prospects that Boston is offering that much better.  Because if you give me the choice of Hughes of Lester, I cannot imagine taking Lester.  

But maybe I'm off base here.

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Re: Which offer is better?
If they get Santana for Lester and Coco I will be super-pissed - regardless of what the other two players are.  Sox have trouble making room for Lester and Coco now - flipping them into Santana would be a huge win-win.

I don't see how Hughes/Cabrerea doesn't trump any deal without Bielziberry or Buchholbub.

by Brick. on Dec 4, 2007 12:12 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I take the Yankees deal because I think Hughes is going to be awesome.  Hughes > Lester, Cabrera > Crisp (It's pretty close, but Cabrera is cheaper and younger), Lowrie and Masterson > Unknown Yankee prospect.  

by ClarkM on Dec 4, 2007 12:15 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I've heard it speculated that the Twins are negotiating with the Red Sox just to get the Yankees to agree to add a 3rd good prospect (Ian Kennedy, I guess). I don't think there's any question Hughes is the best player in either package.

None of the Red Sox prospects being talked about are really A-level prospects IMO. Most will be decent but not great players, I think. Hughes is the only one with a chance to be great, so you've got to get him back if you're dealing Santana. (Full disclosure: I passionately despise the Red Sox and think all their prospects get overrated even more than NYY/NYM prospects.)

Or they could still just hang onto Santana and make a run in 2008, which honestly is what I'd probably do if I were Minnesota's front office. With Santana at the front of the rotation, a healthy Liriano, and Delmon Young in the OF they're a good team with a good chance to make the playoffs -- and the purpose of a major league baseball team is (at least theoretically) to win the World Series, not to stockpile talent.

by mrich on Dec 4, 2007 12:26 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I'm not as crazy about Hughes. Pitching prospects go kaput a little too often for my taste. I take the package of position players - Ellsbury, Lowrie and 2 pitching prospects. The lineup becomes mildly formidable ...

 C Mauer
1B Morneau
2B Lowrie
SS ?
3B ?
LF Young
CF Ellsbury
RF Cuddyer

I think they can move Nathan for  a more proven starting pitching, taking a lower reward but also a lower risk.

by crazymoloh on Dec 4, 2007 12:26 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Brendan Harris, who they got in the Garza deal, could start at SS.

by KevinV on Dec 4, 2007 12:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I know. But he isn't really a long term solution. I don't think. If the Twins can find a high ceiling SS/3B prospects on a team that could use Nathan, I think they'd have their offense taken care of for a good long while.

by crazymoloh on Dec 4, 2007 12:44 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Well he is cheap, young and his performance was pretty good in 2007. He could be adequate in that lineup with so many plus players.

I definately agree about 3B though. I wonder if they like Marte...

by KevinV on Dec 4, 2007 12:47 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
In my opinion, Jacoby Ellsbury is overrated.  He is Juan Pierre with a little better eye and better defense.  That makes him a pretty good player, but certainly not worthy of being the centerpiece in a deal for the best pitcher in baseball.

by ClarkM on Dec 4, 2007 1:54 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Has anyone seen Bill James' projection for Ellsbury in 2008?  Hard to believe.  I know James works for Boston now, but he's got all of Baseball Info Solutions doing these things and he usually remains pretty impartial:  .320/.374/.436 and 42 steals.  

by nickjs21 on Dec 4, 2007 2:04 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
without examining this too closely, I gotta say that .320 part is hard for me to believe.  If he hits, say, .280, with the James' ISO, his line is more like .280/.334/.396 .730 w ~ 37 steals, or kind of Podsednikian.

by homelytourist on Dec 4, 2007 2:40 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
His speed allows him to get more infield hits than your average hitter. The difference between .280 and .320 is one infield hit a week.

by crazymoloh on Dec 4, 2007 3:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Right now, he's got a career (250 G/1017 AB) minor league line of .313/.389/.425. I find it completely mindboggling that James thinks he will somehow best all of these in all three categories while moving up to the majors.

by zempf on Dec 4, 2007 3:24 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
don't you know that many young ladies (and joe buck) compare him to grady?

by Brick. on Dec 4, 2007 3:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
BOS offer:
Lester: Very good starter prospect, should start for MIN in 2008.
Lowrie: Excellent production from SS. Adequate defense. Could start for them at SS at some point in 2008.
Coco: Has hit better than Cabrera in the past. I also faster and players better D. Might do better out of the BOS pressure cooker.
Justin Masterson: Solid AA pitching prospect, nothing unbelieveable though.

NYY Offer:
Hughes: The best pitcher MIN will be offered for Santana, easily.
Cabrera: Cheaper and controlled for longer than Coco. Has produced about what Coco has for the past couple years.
Prospect: NYY has reportedly made a lot of their top prospects off limits, such as Tabata, Jackson and Holmes.

Conclusion:
BOS offered 3 players that could start for MIN at some point in 2008. NY only offered 2. Masterson might be better than anything NY has offered because of the restriction on the 3rd player in the deal.

If they really do like BOS's offer better it is probably because they feel that the difference between Lester and Hughes is not worth a young, affordable and talented full time position player like Lowrie.

by KevinV on Dec 4, 2007 12:33 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Has produced about what Coco has for the past couple years.

In baseball?  I'm not so sure about that.  Not offensively.

Each player's "past couple years," in terms of OPS+:
Melky (who will be 23)-- 95 and 89
Crisp (who will be 28)-- 77 and 83

Defensively, Crisp has the edge.  But if we're talking bat (on a team that needs one), controlled years, and salary, Melky should be more attractive to the Twins.

by nickjs21 on Dec 4, 2007 2:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I'm not sure what amazes me more.  The fact that the Sox have hyped up Lester as much as they have or the fact that people are actually buying into it.  Yes, he's a lefty with a plus fastball.  He's also sporting a WHIP of 1.31 in the minors, and during his longest stint in AAA, he posted a WHIP of 1.45.  

Hughes, on the other hand, has a career minor league WHIP of .86.  He's the real deal.  And frankly, a package of Hughes and anyone else the Yanks want to throw in is, in my mind, better than anything the Sox can really offer.  

by aclockworkowens on Dec 4, 2007 12:59 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Thanks for the reality check.  When I see Lester, I see someone who could end up anywhere from a #2 to an 8th inning guy.  The difference in the rest of the parts cannot amount to that much.

So obviously, the entire sports world is conspiring to make the Boston area dominate all sports.  I blame ESPN.

by Buzz on Dec 4, 2007 1:55 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I'm terrified by these thoughts.

Looks like this is going to be a pretty crazy offseason.

by homelytourist on Dec 4, 2007 1:59 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
The Yankee offer is better, and it's really not even close.

by Kos on Dec 4, 2007 2:05 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I've given this Boston offer more thought, and I can't say that it's much better than the one had received for Coco and Bard.  The version where Cla Meredith was included, which nearly was the case, is virtually equal in terms of the component talents in the Boston package.  Would you agree?

by homelytourist on Dec 4, 2007 3:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I do not agree at all.

Marte/Shoppach/Old reliever

is not nearly as good as

Lester/Lowrie/Crisp/Masterson

by KevinV on Dec 4, 2007 3:32 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
It's not a question of is--like what we know now--but what was, as in what was thought then.  Marte was, at that time, probably an equal or better prospect than any of the players the Sox are offering in the trade.

And, remember, Mota was thought to be a good reliever, a near closer.  Meredith was nearly included ni place of Mota, according to what I've read, and he was, at the time, an equal or greater prospect than Masterson.  

How much greater is Lowrie as a prospect now than Shoppach was then?

by homelytourist on Dec 4, 2007 4:11 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
If we think about the last time most of us saw Lester and Hughes pitch (who are the cornerstones of both trades) Hughes completely dominated us after Clemens came out in the ALDS during game 3. During the ALCS Lester worked mop-up duty most games and gave up that bomb to Gutz.

In my mind I would go with Hughes because he is a stud, and he proved it in the postseason as well.  Hughes + Cabrera + another prospect is worth it.

Plus, if we did not go to the ALCS and almost make it, would we not be in the Twins shoes right now talking about trading Sabathia?

Walt

by curly1229 on Dec 4, 2007 3:45 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I just understand what the Twins are doing. I mean, how can you trade Johan Santana, and not get any of the Red Sox top two prospects in return. And I also don't see why they want Crisp/Lester over Ellsbury. If you trade Santana, you are pretty much giving up all serious hopes for contending, so why do you want Crisp? This almost seems like the misguided Alomar trade where we got Lawton instead of more prospects.

by nomar363 on Dec 4, 2007 5:08 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
In the end, the Twins don't have A LOT of leverage. Only a select few teams can afford Santana, so some will be willing to wait a year and get into a bidding war rather than give away prized pieces of their team right now.

I'm sure they would love to have Ellsbury/Lester .. but if the Sox aren't willing to give Ells up, than they have to get the next best thing (which is Coco and a few prospects).

by Toxicadam on Dec 4, 2007 5:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I'd take Matt Kemp over any 5 players the Red Sox offer. Seriously, Yankees and Red Sox prospects are so overhyped, I wouldn't touch any of them.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Dec 4, 2007 5:27 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Here's a friendly wager that you'll be changing your mind on Phil Hughes, so long as he avoids major surgery, within two years.

by tabler84 on Dec 4, 2007 5:41 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Ah, crap, I meant to say except Hughes.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Dec 4, 2007 5:44 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
And Joba. And Buchholz. The only guy I agree with you about is Ellsbury. Now that guy is overhyped to high hell.

by Joe on Dec 4, 2007 11:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I agree with you here. I am higher on Hughes than on Joba or Adam Miller.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 4, 2007 5:44 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
You're offering a sucker's bet -- wagering over whether a pitching prospect will succeed, but then excluding injury from the question!

I'll wager Michael Vick will make the Pro Bowl this year, assuming he can stay out of prison.

by Jay on Dec 4, 2007 5:53 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Nah, not the same.  GFP originally said that all the prospects were flat-out "overhyped."  Phil Hughes is not overhyped.  GFP originally said he wouldn't "touch any of them."  

He updated his stance on Hughes, of course.  But Jay, my response to GFP's assertion of over-hyped-ish-ness still stands.  

by tabler84 on Dec 4, 2007 8:41 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Too be fair, you could still say they're overhyped - even if Hughes is as good as we think, he isn't a cross between Koufax/Pedro/Drysdale/Mathewson/Cy Young that the media makes him out to be.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Dec 5, 2007 1:18 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
You take Matt Kemp over Clay Buchholz? Really?

by Joe on Dec 4, 2007 11:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I think I have to come clean on my extreme Matt Kemp man crush.

Yes.

Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Dec 5, 2007 1:19 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

All but Done
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6970

Dammit, I hate that the Sox are giving up surplus for the best pitcher in baseball.

Beat LSU!!!

by gahnki on Dec 4, 2007 5:42 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Assuming:  (1) the Red Sox get Santana; and (2) the Tribe can't sign Sabathia, you have to trade CC, no?  I mean, there's no way we're beating the Red Sox in any series with Beckett and Santana pitching twice.

by notsince48 on Dec 4, 2007 6:02 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Why even play the games then? We oughta just fold up shop because we'll NEVER beat those guys.

Oh wait, they're not unbeatable -- note that we did manage to beat Santana 5 times last year, plus a win off of Beckett. Sure they're great pitchers, but they are mortal.

by zempf on Dec 4, 2007 6:05 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Sure, but Boston's offense >> Minnesota's offense.  I think we beat Santana five times in large part, because we were lucky enough to have our best arms going against the Twins' offense.

by CBusSteve on Dec 4, 2007 6:22 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
We wouldn't need our best arms against that offense -- we wouldn't, and we didn't.  Outside of Carmona's notorious shutout in May, by and large it was our offense that beat Santana, not our starters.

Santana had a 4.78 ERA in those games, compared with 3.11 in all other games.  Fausto gave up two runs over 16.2 IP -- that's great against any major league lineup.  C.C. gave up five runs over 20 IP -- also great.

But let's not forget, Sabathia made the Twins lineup look bad, but they were already bad -- those performances were not exceptional for him or for the Twins lineup.

But Santana is the league's best pitcher, and the Indians lineup reduced him to below-average.  They scored nearly as many runs off him as they averaged over the whole season, against all pitchers.  In other words, it was the hitters who rose to the occasion the most.

1 - scored 4 off Santana.

2 - Carmona smokes 'em.

3 - C.C. gives up 2, Johan gives up 3, both only last 6.

4 - C.C. gives up 2, Johan gives up 4, both only last 6.

5 - scored 4 off Santana a third time, C.C. pitches 8 scoreless.

by Jay on Dec 6, 2007 1:06 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
it's the yankees job to make reactionary moves based on what boston does, not shapiro's.

by Brick. on Dec 4, 2007 6:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Uh, and we'd have CC and Fausto pitching twice. I see no reason we couldn't win all four of those games.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Dec 4, 2007 6:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
here comes the Indians version of "A-ROD HAS ZERO CHAMPIONSHIPS!" from someone.

by Brick. on Dec 4, 2007 6:09 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I just don't see what the big hype about Santana is.  How many rings has he won?

Yeah.  That's what I thought.  He sucks.

by nickjs21 on Dec 4, 2007 10:32 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Coco sucks.  Any deal with Coco sucks.  I would take the Yankees ofer over the Red Sox offer.  I assume the Twins are holding out hope that other teams enter the bidding or the Red Sox blink.

For the love of baseball, please have the Red Sox suffer a little pain for Santana.  They'd pay a team to take Coco, and adding Santana makes Lester unnecessary.

by Spidey on Dec 4, 2007 11:01 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I agree that Hughes is the better pitching prospect by far IMO. However, I think the Red Sox have the more attractive postion player package with or without Ellsbury. I think this may be why Minnesota is trying to get Anaheim back in the mix.

Question is would the Battlin' Buzzards pull off a better package?

If I see Jim Leyland in an alone at night, I'll smash his pack of cigarettes and shave off his mustache and eyebrows. GO TRIBE!

by Kid Cleveland on Dec 5, 2007 12:39 AM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Here is the thing if I was Minnesota

Lester has a career record of 11-2 with a 4.68 ERA in 26 career starts
He has struck out 110 batters in those starts
..
Hughes is 5-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 13 career starts
He has struck out 58 batters in those starts
....
Coco Crisp career line
665 Games 49HR 272RBI 104SB .329OBP .280Avg
Age: 28
..
Melky Cabrera
286 Games 15 HR 123 RBI 25 SB .340OBP .275Avg
Age: 23
*
It comes down to basically Lester and Hughes are equal in talent to me and in performance. Both get extra hype because of where they play but I am not really sure if either one will truely be an ace of the staff. Probably a solid 1 or 2 but not what I would call a ACE.
-
The Twins also need a centerfielder and 3rd baseman. By getting Crisp and Lowry they could fill most of their holes with the Red SOx trade. They could move Punto or Harris to third and basically get 3 starters and a pitching prospect that could be in the majors in a year or 2 for Santana.
-
The Yankees you get 2 starters and probably some prospect that will never make the majors.

If it was not for Lester's health issue last year then I do not think there is any question that he Red SOx have a better trade package for what Minnesota needs.
--
the other thing is. There may be nobody else the Twins can trade Snatana to due to the amountg of money he wants when he is traded

by chief on Dec 5, 2007 5:29 AM EST   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I can't believe you're evaluating Hughes and Lester as equal based on a combined 39 career starts.

by nickjs21 on Dec 5, 2007 8:19 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
I'm ... speechless.
Sizemore-Shapiro 2008. The Official Red Bull of Let's Go Tribe Game Threads.

by Gradyforpresident on Dec 5, 2007 11:27 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Which offer is better?
Hughes is FAR better than Lester. It's not even close or worth arguing.

by Joe on Dec 5, 2007 11:40 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Here's a new one...
New Santana rumor:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/santanareyeshar.html

Santana doesn't go to either the Sox or Yanks, while Minnesota doesn't improve (in terms of present-day value)? Me likey very much.

by ManchildinBeantown on Dec 5, 2007 4:57 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Here's a new one...
That site is such a joke.

by Joe on Dec 5, 2007 8:52 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Here's a new one...
I'd mock that site too, but I am so much worse when April's NFL draft get near. I am convinced I see every mock draft on the net and it's never enough even though I know they are all full of s#@t.
If I see Jim Leyland in an alone at night, I'll smash his pack of cigarettes and shave off his mustache and eyebrows. GO TRIBE!

by Kid Cleveland on Dec 5, 2007 11:35 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

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