Cliff Lee wants to be a starter

Like, dude.

Excellent point.

I'm sure Jason Johnson also would like to be a starter, and would be willing to say so on the record, too.

Here:

Here:

This is the word on the street.  It's not like Jay's making it up.

Can we agree that in 2007, he definitely sucked?  6.29 ERA?  Sent to the minors despite $15 million contract?  Sucked?  Yes?

I think the standard in casual fan commentary is to use the present tense to describe a player's most recent performance.  By that standard, Cliff Lee sucks until he gives us a reason to doubt that he sucks.  As of December 5, 2007, he sucks.

I would have told you a year ago that Lee was overrated and underachieving.  I vaguely recall getting into a long argument when someone objected to my referring to him as "middling."  (Was that you, too?)  I generally would give a guy the benefit of the doubt coming off the DL, but the trainwreck that was Lee's season went far beyond that.

Stories of Lee not responding to coaching, and generally being a dick, have been reported off an on for his entire career, and last season in particular.  I think these characterizations make a perfectly good explanation for why a man with #2 starter raw talent has been such a mediocre major league starter (career 95 ERA+).  All the evidence fits the theory, and the theory fits the evidence.

I know of no evidence of an organizational "pitch to contact" philosophy."  I know our starting pitching has been excellent in general.  It is true that I am citing anecdotal information, but I'm not just making stuff up!

Note too that Lee put up only a 3.51 ERA in Buffalo.  Why would I say "only" a 3.51 ERA?  Because (a) he's supposed to be a freakin' major leaguer, and (b) he showed the dominant stuff you would expect of a major leaguer with 11 K/9.

How far does a pitcher's head have to be up his ass to get so little out his talent?  Lee answered that question this season.

I won't mind if we keep him, though.  A big bounce-back year from him wouldn't surprise me a bit.  Maybe his horrendous performance and demotion were enough to show him that he doesn't know better than his coaches.  Does this multimillionaire care enough about being a good pitcher to start listening?  Lee will answer that question next season.

Santana, Zito, Garcia, Buerhle, Haren, Garland, Johnson, Lackey, Westbrook, Moyer, Millwood, Robertson, Bonderman, Contreras, Lee.  Those are the only 15 men who pitched 400 innings for an AL team, 2005-2006, and IP alone have value.

The quality of Lee's pitching those season has been the subject of much debate.  Dave has pointed out, more than once and quite rightly, that Lee's 2005 season has been underrated by us analytical types, so eager to scorn the dumb beat writers' for their Cy Young votes that we overlook Lee's bad luck on balls in play -- that whatever he was getting in extra run support was only making up for what he was losing on defense and luck.

There is definitely something to that argument.  You look at FIP and Lee shows up in a thick vein of second-tier starters that year -- three guys way ahead of the pack, and then 13 guys all falling in between 3.70 (Sabathia) and 3.94 (Byrd and Westbrook).  Lee, Millwood and Cy Colon all are among those 13.  (Here.=2005&league_filter[0]=1&Submit=Submit&orderBy=fip&direction=ASC&page=1])

The fly in that ointment is that Lee is an extreme flyball pitcher, with the fewest groundballs of any AL starter in 2005 (and third-fewest in 2006).  That deflates the BIP argument a little and also moves us to look at his HR rates, where he seems to have been a little lucky -- a little.  But these points only diminish the main point, Lee's BIP misfortune, they don't kill it.

Factoring all of that in, I see Lee as perhaps the 20th best starter in the AL in 2005 and 40th best in 2006 -- and there's plenty of room to argue that I'm rating him too low in either year.  Those rankings would put him as a solid 2-3 starter and at least a solid 3-4 guy on a contending team -- especially considering he got to the 200 IP mark both years.

My frustration with Lee has been his underachievement, amplified by reports of his having a bad attitude and/or not listening to his coaches.  But there shouldn't be any doubt that there is a very good pitcher lurking in there somewhere, and that he'd be a very valuable upgrade to almost any team if he can just find his 2006 form -- let alone 2005.  Guys with a lot less going for them that those two seasons have gotten $30 million deals, so we ought to be able to get something of decent value in a trade -- or be cautiously pleased to keep him if we can't.