Poll: LGT Prospect List - #9
A little extra voting time did not especially separate the top three vote-getters in the latest poll, but LHP Rafael Perez takes home the #8 spot through the continuation of his slim percentage lead. Moving on, I have replaced Perez with C Matt McBride - it'll be interesting to start finding out who the LGT community feels is the catcher of the future (McBride, Shoppach, Ramirez, or Wyatt Toregas). Moving into the next poll will likely be RHP Tom Mastny unless I hear chatter otherwise...
Also, if folks would like to continue this list beyond the top 10 (15? 20?), please post. I realize that as we move down the list, the differences between prospects becomes smaller, as does our exposure to them. But in the sake of building the anticipation until pitchers and catchers report and having a little bit of speculative fun in the process...
LGT Community Indians' Prospect List
1.) RHP Adam Miller
2.) LHP Chuck Lofgren
3.) OF Trevor Crowe
4.) LHP Tony Sipp
5.) OF Brian Barton
6.) LHP Scott Lewis
7.) SS Asdrubal Cabrera
8.) LHP Rafael Perez
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Re: Poll: LGT Prospect List - #9
Not to mention guys like Guiterrez, Choo and Carmona who will be in Buffalo. Competition for roster spots is fierce down on the farm.
by mcrose on Feb 2, 2007 12:49 AM EST 0 recs
All the more reason why I don't agree with BA's
Hello mcrose,
Yes, I agree with your comment about our depth - I think BA overlooked Cabrera due to his struggles at AAA, but not fully taking into account WHY he struggled, and failing to realize the great potential he still has. That's why I found his omission from the Top 10 to be very puzzling, while allowing a fringe prospect (in my opinion) like Brad Snyder to be placed on the list to further convince me that BA's ranking is a bit off.
Putting the Yankees at #7 and us at #10 further confirms that for me; the Indians still have considerably better depth than the Yankees, and the number of blue-chippers for the Yankees only marginally outranks our own (Hughes is a definite and Miller is a definite; Sanchez is a probable, Lofgren is a possible to a probable; Tabata is a possible to a probable, but further away.) Therefore, BA's system rankings don't accurately reflect the strength of the Indians' system compared to the Yankees' in my opinion.
Your second line reemphasizes my point above - our AA and AAA teams will have many quality prospects at those levels - even Snyder, who BA considers more highly than I do, isn't even guaranteed a starting spot at AAA Buffalo. I don't see the Yankees' AA and AAA teams having that many quality prospects at those levels, certainly not enough to force a prospect into a backup role.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
by indiansfan on Feb 2, 2007 4:07 AM EST 0 recs
depth
In a way Cleveland is not the best place to be right now if you're a minor leaguer. We already have several guys that would probably have ML jobs this year in other organizations, or at least truly competing for them in ST.
by mcrose on
Feb 2, 2007 4:21 PM EST
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Also, notice the current tie between Drennen &
Hello again mcrose,
Notice that Drennen and Martin are neck-and-neck - roughly 35% of the vote for each at the time of my post. Right now, I think it's a question of which one is #9 and which one is #10.
by indiansfan on Feb 2, 2007 4:09 AM EST 0 recs
Re: Poll: LGT Prospect List - #9
Bonus points: He's already hit a home run off Roger Clemens.
by Jay on Feb 2, 2007 9:29 AM EST 0 recs
Re: Poll: LGT Prospect List - #9
by stuart dean on Feb 2, 2007 12:09 PM EST 0 recs
Re: Poll: LGT Prospect List - #9
by oxforddave on Feb 2, 2007 12:59 PM EST 0 recs
Re: Poll: LGT Prospect List - #9
by APV on
Feb 2, 2007 2:34 PM EST
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Re: Poll: LGT Prospect List - #9
Good (not great) ERA + lousy peripherals = nothing to get excited about -- look at it another way, he'll be at best the fourth most exciting starter in Akron to start the year. He turns 22 in April, so if he's ever going to develop tougher stuff, it's probably going to be this season.
by Jay on
Feb 2, 2007 3:07 PM EST
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Re: Poll: LGT Prospect List - #9
Laffey is 2 years younger and playing one or two levels below Sowers.
I'm not saying that this is reason to believe that Laffey is really a top prospect. Really, it makes me doubt Sowers more than believe in Laffey. It's an interesting comparison though.
Probably Laffey should be a little bit better regarded. And Sowers may be due for some reversion to the mean.
by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on
Feb 2, 2007 5:38 PM EST
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No offense, but Laffey isn't as good as Sowers!
No offense, but implying that Laffey could be better than Sowers is not accurate in my opinion.
You're comparing Laffey's High-A numbers to Sowers' AAA numbers - that's two levels apart and a vast world of difference - after all, that's why they say AA separates the contenders from the pretenders.
If you compare Sowers' High-A numbers to Laffey's High-A numbers, Sowers' K rate at High-A was 9.46 K/9 IP; Laffey's K rate at High-A was 5.23 K/9 IP. Continue onward to AA, Sowers' K rate at AA was 7.65 K/9 IP, Laffey's K rate at AA was 4.89 K/9 IP.
And while Laffey's BB/9 IP rate at High-A was lower than Sowers' - 1.31 to 2.40 - realize that Sowers' BB/9 IP rate at AA Akron was 0.98 BB/9 IP, while Laffey's BB/9 IP rate at AA Akron was 2.64 BB/9 IP, so again, Sowers has passed the AA test much better than Laffey has to this point.
In other words, Sowers' K rates were superior by a considerable margin over Laffey's. And, even though Sowers' K rate has dropped considerably since he moved up to AAA and the Majors, his exceptional command has allowed him to manage, and even at times, dominate, at the ML level. Realize that his AAA BB/9 IP rate was 2.68 BB/9 IP, just .04 more than Laffey's AA BB/9 IP rate of 2.64.
In essence, I don't think you can make a solid argument that Laffey is better or can be better than Sowers, based on the data. Just because Laffey is 2 years younger, that's not enough evidence in my mind to suggest that Laffey is or will be better than Sowers. Most of the peripherals have favored Sowers throughout the Minors, and the one big one, the K rate, definitely favors Sowers. Unless Laffey develops exceptional command like Sowers did or somehow gains 4-5 miles per hour on his fastball, I don't see Laffey duplicating Sowers' success in the Minors, and likewise, not his success in the Majors either.
Just my 2 cents - no offense. :-)
by indiansfan on
Feb 2, 2007 6:11 PM EST
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Laffey & Sowers, not Laffey vs Sowers
by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on
Feb 2, 2007 8:40 PM EST
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Re: Laffey & Sowers, not Laffey vs Sowers
by Jay on
Feb 2, 2007 9:39 PM EST
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Re: Poll: LGT Prospect List - #9
He's definitely a finesse/location guy who depends on his defense. But every once in a while he'd be really "on" and strike out 8 or 9 guys in a game. Still improving as a pitcher, hasn't really hit any rough stretches yet in his development, which is encouraging.
I guess it will be Joe Ness and Nick Pesco that will be rounding out the starters in Akron.
by mcrose on
Feb 2, 2007 4:04 PM EST
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Re: Poll: LGT Prospect List - #9
I think Pesco will be there but not Ness unless he magically developes a change of speed pitch or goes to relief where I think his future is. He has two awfully good pitches but both are thrown hard. His slider sits at 89.
I am not sure both Smith and Laffey will be moving up to AAA. It makes some sense for the last two starter positions at Buffalo but I would be surprised if both go. :)
by sdtribefan on
Feb 2, 2007 5:38 PM EST
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I don't agree about Ness!
No offense, but I disagree about Ness - to be honest, I thought he would be called up to AA Akron earlier than Jensen Lewis, based on how the two were performing at High-A Kinston.
Ness had a great first month at High-A Kinston in terms of his K rate (12.19 K/9 IP,) then it dropped off considerably from then on. However, his H rate was below 1 from April to June; in July, it was just over 1, then it really fell off in August, when it was 10.07 H/9 IP.
Of the seven potential starters at AA Akron that I mentioned, I would think Laffey and either Pesco or Jensen Lewis would be coming out of the bullpen; Pesco because he is coming off an injury and his peripherals at High-A weren't as good as Jensen Lewis or Joe Ness's. If it's J. Lewis, some have remarked about Lewis' stuff maybe fitting better out of the bullpen.
I suppose J.D. Martin or Scott Lewis could be out of the Akron rotation for the following reasons - Martin is promoted to AAA Buffalo or they want to ease him back into a starting role slowly after TJ surgery; with Lewis, they're still taking it easy with his workload, but all indications seem to indicate that he won't be on a restrictive pitch count like he has been on since he entered the Indians' system, so it seems likely S. Lewis will be in the Akron rotation.
Just my 2 cents - no offense. :-)
by indiansfan on
Feb 2, 2007 6:26 PM EST
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Re: I don't agree about Ness!
I hate to be redundent but Ness only has two pitches-a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider. It gets by A ball but AA is a different story. I won't even comment on the chances of being a starter in the show with two pitches, particularly at the same speed. You and I both know how likely that is.
I was a little surprised about J. Lewis being promoted myself. They seem awfully high on him. Didn't they draft him two or three times? I couldn't understand why they didn't promote Lofgren. Maybe you have a point about reliever because he probably has at least 10 starters ahead of him. Neither he or Ness make my top 20, but what do I know. Shapiro hasn't called for advice in a long time.
Pesco was a different pitcher after the arm trouble. He may be destined for relief as you say but I think they will keep him as a starter for the time being. It is easier to contol pitch counts and timing as a starter. They didn't even let JD relieve until late in the season and he pretty much showed everyone he was back. Speaking of JD, I think he is going to be in Akron. They expect to limit him to 100 pitches, same as Lewis, from what I've read. I'd like to see him get to Buffalo by mid-year.
Looks like you think Smith will be at Buffalo, just by omission from Akron. I get the sinking feeling he is about maxed out but he was on my top 20. Not sure why.:)
by sdtribefan on
Feb 3, 2007 12:39 AM EST
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Ness is probably working on a 3rd pitch now!
I can understand your concern about Ness, but chances are, they're probably working on a third pitch with him, probably a changeup, to go with that mid-90s fastball and hard slider. I would presume he must have had a third pitch at college because he was a starter for the most part at Ball State (36/49 appearances were starts.)
Besides, a starter is considered more valuable than a reliever, and being how long they allowed Jason Davis to remain a starter, I highly doubt they'll give up on Ness that quickly, not with that type of stuff. Many Minor League pitchers need to learn a 3rd pitch that is slower, such as a changeup. Heck, look at Adam Miller when he came into the Indians system - he had a very rudimentary changeup at best; he just had a low-90s fastball and a very good slider (sound familiar? :-)
My point is not that I think Ness will become the next Adam Miller, but rather that pitchers can develop a ML-average changeup more easily than other types of pitches, and I suspect that's what the Indians will attempt to do with Ness, so I'll be a bit surprised if Ness is turned into a full-time reliever this year, especially after how long they stayed with Davis as a starter. In fact, looking at the numbers, Ness' peripherals look very similar to Davis' at the same age, and actually, outside of the BB rate being a bit higher, Ness' other peripherals are actually a bit better than Davis' were in the Carolina League at age 22.
So, based on past history, I would think the Indians will stick with Ness as a starter and try to help him develop a changeup to go with that mid-90s fastball and hard slider. Davis wasn't able to stay as a starter at the ML level; only time will tell whether Ness will be able to stay as a starter or become a reliever, but I doubt the Indians will decide to make Ness a reliever this season - they'll keep him as a starter as long as he shows progress in developing that 3rd pitch (changeup) into a ML-average pitch.
Just my 2 cents on that.
I'll post another post on your other thoughts in a few moments - stay tuned! :-)
by indiansfan on
Feb 3, 2007 1:53 AM EST
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More thoughts on your thoughts!
Regarding Jensen Lewis, you're right that the Indians drafted him twice (in the 33rd Round out of HS in the '02 Draft; in the 3rd Round out of Vanderbilt in the '05 Draft); besides liking his stuff and makeup, I'm guessing the Ohio connection also had something to do it, not just because he's from the area, but probably because they were able to scout him extensively, and they must have received feedback from the scout or scouts that followed him that they really believe this guy has the profile to become a very good ML pitcher - hopefully, they're correct. Like I said, I was surprised he was called up to AA Akron, and even a bit more surprised that he did pretty well there, better than I thought he would. Outside of I think two bad starts (and they were on the bad side,) most of his starts were solid to good, with a higher-than-expected K rate compared to what he was doing down at Kinston, so I think there's a chance he could be a solid pitching prospect down the road.
That's why I think the Indians probably won't give up on him as a starter right away either, because again, starters are more valuable than relievers, and I'm not sure Pesco will hold up after the arm surgery, plus, if I'm correct, Lewis has better velocity and stuff over Pesco, so it would seem to make more sense to me at this point to allow Pesco to work his way back in the bullpen, while allowing Lewis to explore his full potential as a starter, since they have less data on Lewis' abilities than they do Pesco's (who started pitching in the Indians' system in 2003; Lewis started pitching in the Indians' system in 2005.)
From what I've read and heard, the Indians didn't want to promote Lofgren last year because they felt he still needed to follow through on his delivery more consistently to have success at AA. Plus, he had had a great year at Kinston, plus Kinston was headed to the postseason as well, and being that he was only 20 at High-A, they felt there was no need to rush him. Conversely, Lewis was already 22, so they felt they should speed up his timetable, plus felt that he could handle it, and for the most part, he did.
To be honest, I forgot about Sean Smith - darn, first Laffey, now Smith? And BA ranked us #10 in organizational depth? The more I review our system, the more I'm convinced that BA was way off, and that's unusual for them, as I usually find their rankings to be pretty accurate, but in this case, I don't agree with their rankings.
At any rate, back to Smith - I don't think he's ready for Buffalo; personally, I'd rather move J.D. Martin up to Buffalo, if not immediately to start 2007, after a month or so, presuming that J.D. continues from where he left off in 2006. J.D. has already shown success at AA Akron twice, and while J.D. still has to show his arm is healthy and prove that he can get AA hitters out after surgery, I don't think he has to prove much more at AA, and one more good month would convince me to send him up to AAA Buffalo to relieve the pitching logjam at Akron. In the meantime, I'd move Smith to the bullpen, where he has some experience, then move him, Pesco, or Laffey (the three I would have in the bullpen) in the rotation to take Martin's spot, at least until someone from High-A is ready to come up (presuming they are more highly regarded than Smith, Pesco, or Laffey, who I think are all sort of fringy, especially Laffey and Pesco. Smith might be solid, but I'd like to see him make some more adjustments at AA before I consider him a solid prospect, especially being that his stuff and velocity are only around average.)
Just my 2 cents. :-)
by indiansfan on
Feb 3, 2007 1:59 AM EST
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Re: I don't agree about Ness!
Jensen Lewis was probably promoted because his K rate started spiking. He had only 50 K's in 73 IP through his June 18 start. Over his next his next eight starts, he had 51 K's in 35 innings. That included a spot start in Akron where he more or less dominated -- 7 K's, five singles, one double, no HR or walks. At that point he was promoted, and he struck out another 37 in 32 innings over his last six starts.
Another theory would be that the Akron clubhouse needed redecorating.
by Jay on
Feb 3, 2007 5:59 PM EST
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Re: I don't agree about Ness!
by mcrose on
Feb 3, 2007 8:23 PM EST
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Re: I don't agree about Ness!
by talonk on
Feb 4, 2007 1:22 AM EST
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Re: I don't agree about Ness!
by sdtribefan on
Feb 6, 2007 6:41 PM EST
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I forgot about Laffey, LOL!
To be honest, I haven't heard Laffey's name in a while. Like Jay mentioned though, I'm not really convinced about him at this point - his being at AA at a young age is a positive for him in that he has a bit more time to develop (and, like Jensen Lewis, handled AA better than I thought he would, as I didn't think Lewis was quite ready either,) but as mentioned, he doesn't have good peripherals and he doesn't throw hard, so unless he gains some miles on his fastball, his margin of error is going to be very small, and unlike Sowers, doesn't have the great command to make that work in the Majors.
Essentially, he's really going to have step forward with his command this year (and/or gain some miles on that fastball) for him to really emerge as a solid pitching prospect.
Personally, I'd keep an eye on Joe Ness (who BA calls the "untouchable," just because of the detective with the same name) - his numbers at Kinston were solid, and from what I've heard, he seems to have solid stuff. When I look at his numbers and from what I recall, it seemed he faltered a bit down the stretch (tired, perhaps?) as I thought his numbers, especially his K rate, were a little better than they actually were. At this point, I think he's a bit more interesting than Laffey, because of a higher K rate and a lower H rate, even though his BB rate was about 3 times Laffey's at High A. Ness is about one year older than Laffey, so Laffey has that advantage, but his low K rate is a big red flag for me.
I'd be curious to see what Ness can do at AA; he had several good games as I recall at Kinston, especially earlier in the season.
Overall, Akron should have a very solid rotation: I'm guessing Lofgren, S. Lewis, Ness, Martin, and one of J. Lewis, Laffey, or Pesco. Something else that is interesting - outside of one relief appearance by Scott Lewis in 2006, all the other appearances were starts, for ALL 7 of them. So, likely, two of those 7 pitchers are going to have to adapt to a new role. I wonder who - I'm thinking Laffey (drafted back in 2003,) but his LH BAA was actually higher than his RH BAA (.320 to .274,) so I'm not sure he'd be great as a left-handed specialist; maybe the 6th man, spot starter? Would Nick Pesco, who's been in the system the longest (drafted back in 2002,) also be relegated to the bullpen as well, since his peripherals at Kinston weren't as solid as Jensen Lewis', even though Pesco is one year younger than Lewis? Didn't Pesco come off some type of surgery or injury - perhaps another reason to bring him out of the bullpen?
Overall, the Akron rotation should be very interesting to watch.
by indiansfan on Feb 2, 2007 5:58 PM EST 0 recs
Re: Poll: LGT Prospect List - #9
by oxforddave on Feb 2, 2007 10:35 PM EST 0 recs












