Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by jdudas on Feb 4, 2007 8:16 AM EST
35 comments
Nate Silver at BP Unfiltered has a post about Max Ramirez. He is basically unimpressed by Ramirez, noting that much of his value is inflated by a high walk rate, which may have more to do with the fact that he is old for his minor league levels than with any great pitch selection ability. Also, Ramirez's defense is apparently not good. It's an interesting read.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
Now, I'm gonna go come up with a better word for the 2006 NL wild card race than "hunt."
by fleerdon on Feb 4, 2007 9:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
Hard to tell how much sweeter of a deal we might have got if Wickman wasn't throwing out the potential retiring angle.
by cheech99 on Feb 4, 2007 10:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by Jay on Feb 4, 2007 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by 5tribetipies on Feb 4, 2007 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
I mean, whatever Garko's athletic deficiencies, he did make it to Buffalo as a catcher. Would he have been that ridiculous at third base? Would Victor have been? Or have the Indians decided that above-average defense at 3B is a huge advantage and undervalued in the market?
by Jay on Feb 4, 2007 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
I think the fewest members of the Hall of Fame played third base, right? Part of that is no one really moves along the defensive spectrum to third base. SS's become 2B's. Outfielders all gravitate to LF, then to 1B.
I also think part of it is, no one can agree on defensive metrics in general, and that goes double for third-basemen, as left-handed starting pitching can skew the results. I'll say this, if the FO was ready to sign Mark Mulder and consider having four left-handed starters, they must really believe in Mr. Marte's defensive prowess.
by cheech99 on Feb 4, 2007 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
To my mind, they switched Garko because Martinez was blocking him and they needed another position for him. When I read Wedge's comment, I thought to myself: "Well, you know Ryan's probably still a better catcher than he is a first baseman."
by mcrose on Feb 5, 2007 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
Well, any comments you read tend to be in the context of a guy as a total prospect. With Garko, the defense was suspect, but people loved everything else about him, and he fairly leapt up the ladder to Triple-A in basically one season. With MaxRam, if he's not a catcher, then who cares about a guy who looks like he might rake -- at age 22 in low-A? If he clobbers pitching at two levels this year and makes it to Triple-A, as Garko did at that age, the rap on him will change in a hurry, regardless of his position.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2007 1:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by mcrose on Feb 5, 2007 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by Ryan on Feb 5, 2007 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by mcrose on Feb 5, 2007 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by dgcambridge on Feb 6, 2007 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
I'm not kidding.
by afh4 on Feb 6, 2007 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by mcrose on Feb 6, 2007 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by Jay on Feb 6, 2007 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
But it was clear watching either of them at 1B last year that they were learning on the job. It will be interesting to see how much time each of them ends up getting over there. It's the logical place to keep Vic in the lineup when he needs a break from catching, and its the only place for Garko, period.
by mcrose on Feb 7, 2007 9:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by Jay on Feb 6, 2007 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by Jay on Feb 6, 2007 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Look at Brandon Inge, for instance!
Jay - Brandon Inge comes to mind - from what I recall, I think Inge was solid or okay defensively behind the plate, but wasn't Ivan Rodriguez either. Yet, he goes to 3B and seemed to excel there (I don't know about GC-caliber,) but he seemed to get a lot of praise over there for his defensive ability.
I too am surprised that we haven't tried more guys over there - after all, the farm system hasn't had many quality 3B in the last several years - the likes of Corey Smith, Pat Osborn, probably one or two others I don't recall at the moment, before Kevin Kouzmanoff and Andy Marte came along, and Kouzmanoff wasn't considered good defensively at 3B. Only Marte was, and he still needs some more reps to make sure he is a solid defensive 3B at the ML level.
In other words - there haven't been many options over the years, so you'd think that the Indians would have been willing to try almost anyone who couldn't stick at SS/2B/CF/C and see if they could adapt to 3B. It certainly wouldn't have hurt.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
by indiansfan on Feb 4, 2007 6:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Look at Brandon Inge, for instance!
by fleerdon on Feb 5, 2007 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Look at Brandon Inge, for instance!
by fleerdon on Feb 5, 2007 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Look at Brandon Inge, for instance!
Aaron Boone and Matt Whitney have also had plenty of experience playing basketball, to the detriment of their baseball career.
by Ryan on Feb 5, 2007 11:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Look at Brandon Inge, for instance!
by mcrose on Feb 5, 2007 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Look at Brandon Inge, for instance!
Still, I've always suspected Blake is qualified as a great athlete b/c he's positionless and just an ok MLB player. It seems ridiculous that he's actually a better athlete than, say, Sizemore. It's just that with Sizemore there are way better things to talk about, like how he plays baseball really well.
by afh4 on Feb 6, 2007 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Look at Brandon Inge, for instance!
by Jay on Feb 6, 2007 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Look at Brandon Inge, for instance!
It's the same with Inge-all of that stuff about him dunking a basketball and kicking a field goal and whatever else, it's only in the discussion because there's not a ton to say about Brandon Inge the baseball player.
by afh4 on Feb 7, 2007 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
Similarly, a year ago, we seemed to have a nice selection of 1B prospects at all minor-league levels: Garko, Aubrey, Head, Mulhern (who is also an outfielder).
It just shows how quickly a prospect's flame can burn out due to injury or lack of development - and how quickly a perceived overstock at one position can a drought.
A few years back, we had nobody for CF, hence the aquisition of Milton Bradley. Now, just about all of our best OF prospects have CF potential.
by kov on Feb 5, 2007 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
You would have to go back more than a couple years to find a time when those guys were considered really good prospects. Outside of Whitney's short-season debut -- five years ago -- neither one of them ever had a good season after high school. Smith had a couple of okay seasons as a kind-of young Double-A guy, but he also committed 45 errors in a season -- twice. That was about as good as either one ever got.
Yeah, I said 45, twice, not a typo.
I think it is fair to say that the Marte trade happened because the Indians had been desperate for even a good 3B prospect in the upper minors, and had been for a couple of years already.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2007 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That was the guy I forgot about - Whitney!
I knew I forgot another 3B prospect - Matt Whitney. And Jay, I agree with you in the sense that those two hadn't been considered good to great prospects really since Whitney broke his foot and Smith's first full season at AA - and that was quite some time ago. By the time Kouzmanoff was drafted in 2003, Smith was already a prospect who lost his luster and Whitney was out with the knee injury, which definitely put a hit on his prospect status.
So, yes, the Indians hadn't had a good 3B prospect for several years - Kouzmanoff showed signs before the fall on the steps in the AFL, then Marte was traded for.
Yes, it's amazing how quickly a position of strength at a position in a farm system can quickly turn into a weakness.
by indiansfan on Feb 6, 2007 12:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
Matt Whitney was a hot prospect until he hurt his leg and missed the 2003 season. He came back in 2004 at the age of 20 to play at Lake County and hit .256/.347/.390 (195 ABs). So, two years ago, at the beginning of the 2005 season, he still appeared to have the potential to recover from the injury. I believe the FO considered him to be a good prospect at that point, but not like they did in 2002.
Cory Smith was a hot prospect at the beginning of 2004, after hitting .271/.340/.397 at Akron at the age of 21. His offense slipped in 2004 and his defense never did improve. So, I would say he was still a hot prospect three years ago.
In my defense, I'm getting older and three years ago seems like two years ago :-)
by kov on Feb 6, 2007 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Smith was still decent, but probably not a hot...
Hello kov,
First, regarding Whitney, like I said, his injury caused a hit in his prospect status, which you agree with with your last statement - even when the injury occurred in 2003, there had to be doubt on whether Whitney would ever be able to regain his old prospect status, and as it turned out, he didn't.
Regarding Smith, I did not look up Smith's numbers from my last post, so I was a bit surprised to see that Smith had hit .271 at AA Akron at age 21. That itself was decent, but I would still argue he didn't have the hot prospect status when you take into account that his power dropped in 2003 (9 HRs compared to 18 in 2001 and 13 in 2002 in almost the same number of ABs at Low-A and High-A respectively,) plus the fact that Smith's BB/K ratio really had declined from 2000 to 2001, then rebounded a bit in 2002, but still well over a 2 K/1 BB ratio at High-A, further dropping his prospect status from its highest point when he was drafted. His 50 BB/99 K ratio at AA was a nice improvement, but at a sacrifice of his power, so I would say that Smith was still a decent prospect at the end of 2003, probably better than I gave him credit for in my last post, but still not a hot prospect, and arguably, Kouzmanoff was probably the hotter prospect than Smith (and Whitney also) when he was drafted in the 2003 Draft.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
by indiansfan on Feb 6, 2007 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
Interesting stuff on how we felt about Max Ramirez at the time of the trade as opposed to now. I don't know if he has lost something as we had more time to evaluate him but none the less it is fun to look back.
by 5tribetipies on Feb 5, 2007 4:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
Sorry this is the link i should have posted. My bad.
by 5tribetipies on Feb 5, 2007 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
That said, we do have more reports on the player since the trade, and of course that is a factor. But it was clear from the outset that this was one of those players that the Indians like for reasons that are not, shall we say, projectably obvious.
by Jay on Feb 5, 2007 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Baseball Prospectus on Max Ramirez
by Jay on Feb 5, 2007 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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