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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5

Box Score
Recap
Win Probability Graph

Just about everything worked as planned today.

The entire Chicago staff was serving up meatballs, but the Indians weren't missing them, either. Jhonny Peralta, in his first at-bat, took a tailing breaking pitch the other way with two outs in the first inning. Trot Nixon (stay healthy, Trot!) was on base four times, letting Travis Hafner hit with men on base. CC Sabathia made it through six innings with his oblique intact. And the switch flipped on at the right time for Grady Sizemore, as he took Contreras out in his first at-bat of the season.

Sabathia wasn't at his best (6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 SO), but he didn't really need to be. That was as easy a win for CC as he had all of last season.

Next Up: @Chicago (4/4), 2:05 PM

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Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
After the game Ozzie blamed Erstad for refusing to move the runners and instead hitting the ball out of the park

by Roger Dorn on Apr 2, 2007 8:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
At one point the Indians had six players batting 1.000.

I listened to the game on XM, which means I had the Chicago feed.  After the game they interviewed Andy Sisco who alluded to the fact that it's hard to get a good feel for your breaking pitches in Arizona because the air is so dry.  He was happy to get to the "humid" air in Chicago. He also discussed coming into games as a reliever in different situations, and how hard it is to stay focused when down by a few runs.

It's nice to hear a player say something intelligent in an interview for a change.  

by LeftyCatcher on Apr 2, 2007 10:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
I also listened on XM - overall the Sox announcers were complimentary of the Tribe throughout.  I attribute much of that to Steve Stone replacing Ed Farmer for today - apparently I will not be as lucky for the rest of the series.

by IndyDave on Apr 2, 2007 10:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
If Marte can field, I'll take poor hitting.  I don't think we'll need it.

by nickjs21 on Apr 2, 2007 10:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
He is hitting .000. Boone drive in a run today. I think the facts speak for themselves.
Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by Brad D on Apr 2, 2007 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
*drove
Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by Brad D on Apr 2, 2007 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hopefully, we won't need it, but...
it'd be nice if Marte starts progressing and showing some of that offensive promise he was reputed to have.

Hello nickjs21,

I hope you're right, but I hope Marte makes progress and has more days he has hits than 0fers.

To me, at this point, it seems Marte either doesn't make contact or he doesn't make solid contact.  I don't know if that's due to his long swing or what.  It was nice to see him not strike out; he still has to work on making solid contact, preferably to all fields.  It just seems he makes contact, but the ball doesn't go anywhere, unless he pulls a meatball over the heart of the plate and it goes to LF for a 1B, 2B, or HR, but that hasn't happened all that often.

Hopefully, with more time, he'll learn to make more consistent, solid contact more often.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Apr 3, 2007 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Hopefully, we won't need it, but...
I agree, I haven't seen so many mis-hit balls then when I watch Marte.  He seems to JUST misjudge the location of the pitch.
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Apr 3, 2007 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Hopefully, we won't need it, but...
Don't forget that in the civil rights game Marte drove a pitch the other way to drive in the only run we scored against the Cardinals.

It's a long season, he will come around, and no matter how much he may struggle this year...

he will still be better than Boone was for us.

by Proder1039 on Apr 3, 2007 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Graph
(originally posted as a diary, this belongs here)

Courtesy of Fan Graphs, here is today's Game Graph:

The graph for a game like today's is self-evident - it was pretty well over after the top of the first.

Hafner led the team with a .123 WPA (Win Probability Added), while Marte, Dellucci, and CC (!) were the only starters to post negative WPA's.  Solid performance without a lot of suspense.  I'll take it!

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Apr 2, 2007 11:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Graph
Can you explain how to read one of these to me?
Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by Brad D on Apr 2, 2007 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Graph
Essentially it measures the probability of a team winning over the course of the game. The closer to 100% you can get, the more likely you're going to win. The players with positive WPA increased the teams' chances of winning, while the players with negative WPA increased their chances of losing.

The wikipedia link in mkwng's post gets into more detail.

by Ryan on Apr 2, 2007 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Graph
Thanks. Graphs scare me.
Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by Brad D on Apr 3, 2007 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Graph
This looks like one of the dot com bust stocks after 2001.

by SpringTrainingFun on Apr 3, 2007 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Graph
Pet food over the Internet! It sounded like such a great idea...

by zempf on Apr 3, 2007 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Graph
the funny thing about that is that there are like 4 or 5 profitable pet food outlets currently online, so it wasn't necessarily a foolish concept, but I hope no one here put their child's college fund into pets.com common stock.

Or Indians stock.  That was a weird venture.

by homelytourist on Apr 3, 2007 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Graph
These graphs are great to look at. WPA is a great technique for assessing players clutchness over a whole season. As you can see it has some anamolies for a single game. Here some of them are that Pronk gets credit for the error by Uribe, CC has a negative WPA, as he gave up a little win probablity in the first, and by the time he went out there in the second, he couldn't get any back (they game was pretty much decided). Still I think it is a great way to look at the clutchness of the players, and allows one to attempt to quantify what people see with their eyes when watching the game.

by oxforddave on Apr 3, 2007 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Graph
Can we put grit on another axis?  Maybe make the graph 3D?
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Apr 3, 2007 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Graph
The Z axis would be leadership.

by Brick. on Apr 3, 2007 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Graph
I vote for a scrappiness/peskiness quotient for the Z axis (SPQ).
Unofficial Andy Marte and Joe Borowski Apologist. My fantasy team - Swindon SpecOps 27.

by woodsmeister on Apr 3, 2007 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Graph
and the ability of the middle of the order hitters to bunt, as a Z-1 axis.

by MTF on Apr 3, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
I wanna see one of these graphs for that 12 run comeback over seattle in 2001(2000?)

by MikeCP on Apr 3, 2007 9:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
FanGraphs only goes back to '02, but they do have two for the comeback last year after going 10-1 down in the first to KC, along with the '05 game where we scored 11 in the 9th off the same team.  See them both here.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Apr 3, 2007 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
What did everyone take from CCs performance?  I didn't like that he couldn't get guys out on two strike counts, however, I did like that the only runs were scored were via HR.  We all know CC isn't going to allow 2HR per start - infact, he'd have a "poor" season by his standards at over 1.

This may have been discussed in the game thread, but, I was busy watching the game.

Also, Dellucci looked lost in LF.  His arm looked weak and his reaction time poor.  Kind of reminded me how Soriano looked last season.

The rest of the guys seemed to be reading balls fine.  What did everyone else take from this game?

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Apr 3, 2007 2:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
One of the things that I notice about the better starting pitchers is the ability to go to that extra gear when necessary.
Beyond the first inning (and perhaps not even then), C.C. could pretty much just cruise along.

Early in the season, too, there are good reasons for trying extra hard to avoid unnecessary strain.  I didn't get to see beyond the 4th Inning, but I would  suspect C.C. didn't throw a whole lot of breaking stuff.  

The biggest take-away from the game, as far as C.C., was the lone walk, and that was an 8-pitch AB to Konerko.  

I wouldn't worry too much about finishing batters based on anything from yesterday.

by dave @ Let's Go Tribe! on Apr 3, 2007 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
The biggest takeaway for me was Peralta. He went the other way on a breaking pitch, he played solid defense, and he looked thin and lively.

It's optimism overwhelming me but it really looked like Jhonny is back and, if he is back, the Indians have another all-star caliber position player.

by afh4 on Apr 3, 2007 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
It's tempting to think Barfield/Peralta could really be something, and for several years too.

It's probably wise to wait until later in the season before getting too excited, but watching baseball in the springtime can be exciting.

by MTF on Apr 3, 2007 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
Yeah, I didn't want to bring up Barfield for fear of coming off as even more of a pollyanna.

To say the least, it's a good time to be an Indians fan in my estimation.

by afh4 on Apr 3, 2007 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
I'm trying to stay dispassionate about the whole infield, for fear of being too disappointed, but it sure is hard work-- I'd rather just get effusive, truthfully, and be up front about it.  

by MTF on Apr 3, 2007 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
Peralta seemed to have a little quicker of a step.  Whether he was reading the ball off the bat/Martinez's pitch selection or if he is actually a little quicker.  I suppose it could be a combination of the two, and both the Lasiq surgery, his improved fitness, as well as being surrounded by competent fielders...
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Apr 3, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
C.C. simply looked rusty, and it is a fact that he hadn't seen live hitters in ten days.  He never looked totally in control, but he pitched well after the first two batters -- six complete innings, five singles, one HR and one BB.  I'd say he neither wowed nor worried.

I didn't see what you saw in Dellucci.  It looked to me like everything hit to left had a little bit of a late break or lift on it, and we could see that no matter who was at the plate and even on the nice popup Peralta ran out for.  Dellucci is never going to wow anyone in LF, but if he looks on Opening Day the way Soriano looked all season long, I he'll be fine.

by Jay on Apr 3, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
Yea, the thing that I am taking away from CC is that all 3 runs came by the longball.  Other then that, there wasn't much to speak of.  Much of that could have been because the Indians were teeing off on Contreras and the ChiSox just shut er down, OR, CC pitched a nice game - not spectacular, just nice.

I suppose I could give Dellucci the benefit of the doubt due to late break or lift.  He just didn't see to be properly positioned in a few instances and also seemed to take a while to decide to go all out, or to simply play it on a bounce.
I do worry about this OF when Byrd and Lee toe the rubber however, as neither Dellucci nor Nixon should be counted on to flash stellar leather - even though Nixon has in the past, I am waiting to see something out of him.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Apr 3, 2007 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
Observations from the 13th row in Section 140 (sort of behind the Sox dugout, but not directly)

*That stadium is a lot tamer than it used to be.  I thought wearing my Tribe pullover jacket would be cause for some verbal venom (if not some Gamboa-style take down); I got next to nothing.
*Dellucci looked kind of weird when he swings; like he almost doesn't stride with the front foot.  Must have been my angle or something.  
*Great piece of hitting by Peralta in the first, down 0-2 and staying with that breaking pitch.
*Marte looked very loose and assured defensively; the complete opposite at the plate
*You can tell Ozzie likes Wedge; there was definitely some give and take banter after the initial shaking hands ritual
*And you don't need me to say this, but we were SCALDING the ball all day.

by cheech99 on Apr 3, 2007 2:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
I'm going Wednesday.  I wish we could trade weather.

I have been to dozens of Tribe games on the south side and always wear Tribe gear.  And I never really catch any slack.  And if the Tribe is winning, you will never hear anything - just occasionally when the Sox are way ahead.  Just don't wear cubs stuff - you'll get in a fight.

by Brick. on Apr 3, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
I'm going Thursday, so I understand about the freakin' weather.

I always wear my BP Jersey and red and blue Negro Leagues hat (Cleveland Buckeyes... sweet), and I've never had much of a problem.  However, I was at that last series in 05, and seated in the bleachers when Riske gave up an extra inning walkoff shot.  Needless to say, I was up the stairs before the ball landed (mostly b/c I was particularly rowdy/drunk that game.  Eg: joining in on a chant of "Bring Jenks In", b/c he had blown the save the game before and was still relatively new...)

by kwoog on Apr 3, 2007 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
Haven't been to a game at US Cell, though I should. I work at a law firm in the Loop and usually have a number of chances to buy someone's season tix to a Tribe game.

A friend of mine, a Sox fan, suggests staying away during those half-price Monday(?) games, that's when all the troublemakers show up. I think it was at one of those games where the father /son ran onto the field to tag team the first base coach.

by zigsmom on Apr 3, 2007 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
He's right.  The fans are way roudier at those games.  I saw two bloody fights in the stands last time I went to one.  The Inians do play in one this year too that I'm going to.  Probably will leave the cap at home that night.  I was at the one when they charged the umpire (three fights in the stands that night).

by Brick. on Apr 3, 2007 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game One: Indians 12, White Sox 5
Couple things I took away:

  • Second pitch of the game made me feel better about the team, the upcoming season, and my day. I can't believe that it didn't have a similar effect in the dugout.

  • Barfield looks great, but you can already see why he doesn't walk much. He swung at 2 ball fours. I can't wait until he gains a little more patience and takes the 2 spot in the order for good. He looks really good running the bases, very quick and alert - the idea of Grady and him taking leads as Haf steps to the plate is, well, a good idea.

by mcrose on Apr 3, 2007 4:25 PM EDT reply actions  

My thoughts about the game!
Hello everyone,

I agree about Peralta - he looks more like the 2005 version (both offensively and defensively - sharper in both aspects) and if that's true, I think that's a very good sign for the Indians in 2007.  May it continue.  

It's nice to see Barfield drive the ball the opposite way with some pop - I could see him getting many extra base-hits - always a nice thing, especially in the bottom part of the order.

Dellucci looked a bit lost to me at the plate - just looked like he was confused or wasn't seeing the ball well, as he looked a bit off.  Hopefully, he'll find it on Wednesday.

Regarding Dellucci in LF, I didn't see much of a problem; arguably, I thought he did better than Ozuna, who looked like he had a chance to catch that ball that he short-hopped, but didn't pick up the ball right away.  Then, he nearly missed the one that went to the warning track, scrambling and twisting all over the place until he finally got in position to make the catch.  To me, Ozuna looked quite shaky in LF for the White Sox (may that continue.  :-)

Regarding Sabathia, I wouldn't worry too much - at least he had a quality start - guys like Santana, Schilling, Millwood, Kazmir, and Carpenter DID NOT in their first starts.  Other guys like Halladay, Bonderman, Glavine, and Meche (yes, I said Meche,) did!  So, Sabathia is already ahead of the game on some quality pitchers; if CC improves from this point on, he'll likely be fine.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Apr 3, 2007 4:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Borowski, My thoughts about the game!
it was nice to see Joe Bo get some work; they need to see if he can get it done or get another closer.

by BSelby on Apr 3, 2007 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we need another closer, I wouldn't suggest...
Lidge!

Hello everyone,

We've had past discussions on whether Lidge would be a good choice; if his 2007 debut is any indication (and I know it doesn't tell the whole story,) then I think it's wiser if we don't look into Lidge unless it comes at a "cheap" price - he gave up the tying HR to Nady of the Pirates yesterday, a game the Astros went on to lose.

Ever since that HR to Pujols, Lidge doesn't seem the same to me, nor to the others in this MinorLeagueBall thread.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Apr 3, 2007 10:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: If we need another closer, I wouldn't
Lidge and the Astros would beg to differ with you in regard to the Pujols homer. He says he doesn't think about it unless asked. What lidge and the team do suggest is that he developed bad habits in the rush to get ready for the WBC last year. He says that he messed his mechanics by trying to get ready earlier in the year than he normally would. The Astros also laid the blame on the WBC and seemed to intimate that they did not like the way it was done.

With all of the negativity surrounding what amounts to a string of meaningless exhibitions, I would be surprised to see the WBC again in its current state. But that is just me.

My source for this was a Buster Olney blog (I think, it was someone on ESPN). I cannot find the right link. Sorry.

Wait 'til next year... or something like that

by Brad D on Apr 4, 2007 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

That could explain it; I too would prefer the WBC
to be moved or adjusted or something on that order.

Hello fwembt,

Thanks for the info. - greatly appreciated!  That could explain it; I think the WBC didn't help Fernando Cabrera either - I feel he'd probably be further along than he is right now (i.e. would have had a much better 2006 than he did.)

Personally, I hope there is major reform for the WBC - really, they should move the time it is played, but I doubt that that will happen, so they need to make some adjustments of another kind (like how they prepare for it, etc.) in order for it to not adversely affect the players who play in it; after all, the MLB fans want their players and teams to be at their best; I'm not sure that many care whether the US wins the WBC (it would be nice, but I think most MLB fans would rather their favorite teams win the WS, and the WBC didn't seem to help those teams who had players play in the WBC in that regard.)

Just my 2 cents.  

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Apr 4, 2007 2:57 AM EDT reply actions  

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