Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

by Jay on Apr 22, 2007 8:45 PM EDT in News

Highest WPA:

Garko .573
J-ho .106
JoBo .097

Lowest WPA:

J-Mast -.250
J-Mike -.083
J-Barf -.066

You might think "J-Mast" makes no sense, but the "J" stands for "JaknowthisguysfromIndonesia?" Just missing the bottom three was J-Nixon, who piled up a -.052 score in only two plate appearances, replacing a tightly-hamstrung Marte in the lineup midway through. (Marte is day-to-day.)

At a glance, it looks like J-Mast owes Garko a case of beer, and that basically is the story of the game. Not captured above is the series of odd plays involving V-Mart, including (1) a rare catch of a base-stealer (probably a botched hit-and-run), (2) air-mailing an earlier try over third base, (3) watching a bunt fail to roll foul, (4) failing to throw to first on an uncaught strikeout pitch, and finally (5) failing to throw out a runner at third base on another uncaught strikeout pitch, possibly confused about the force-out rules in that instance.

Anyway, a pretty weird game for Vic overall, but his single up the middle did set the stage for Garko's game-winning three-run bomb, which no doubt has Tribe fans everywhere praising Wedge's wisdom for (finally) batting him fifth. Borowski, meanwhile, has not even the tiniest visible scar from his six-run specatacular failure in Yankee Stadium, now having notched two three-up-three-down saves in the three days since. It's a long season.

For the second time in a week, the Indians were fairly dominated by a starter and yet won anyway. Indians fans everywhere are confused by this: Do they suck more, and are they choking less? And can we keep complaining anyway? Westbrook looked ready to toss a gem early on, but ultimately he left with only a quality start and a no-decision. Oh, and $33 million.

Next Up: Sowers vs. Silva (Twins), 8:10 PM

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Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

and finally failing to throw out a runner at third base on another uncaught strikeout pitch, possibly confused about the force-out rules in that instance.

In this instance (first and second, one out, and strike three in the dirt), the batter was automatically out. The runners can advance at their own risk. If the throw to third is in time, it's a double play and the inning is over.

by Ryan on Apr 22, 2007 8:58 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

J-Sow!

by Mark @ Let's Go Tribe! on Apr 22, 2007 10:22 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

So what do people think about rather than Garko getting Marte's missed AB's, having Shoppach play? Have Victor play first rather than continue to find new an creative ways to re-invent the catcher position and start these games at 1B with Blake at 3B?

by Brick. on Apr 22, 2007 11:04 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

I'd definitely consider it; but I'm curious how hog wild the Twins have stolen bases on us the last couple of years. Do the Twins really run that much any more?

by cheech99 on Apr 22, 2007 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

If Alexi Cassila's in the lineup.

by nickjs21 on Apr 22, 2007 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

Marte's situation does not change anything for me. I have wondered out loud in this forum about giving Marte some time in Buffalo to get his act together and bring up an OF to platoon with Trot while Blake plays 3B. The only thing that has really changed for me is that I believe Gutierrez outperforms Francisco at this time. If I am going to have a player subbing for defense, Gutz is the pick of the litter. All in all, I will put up with Victor's liabilities at Catcher to get the advantages he gives the team at that position. If other fans think Garko cannot cut it at 1B and middle order, then they might have a different conclusion. As for me, I have been willing to make this move for a while. :)

IndianInkSlinger

by sdtribefan on Apr 22, 2007 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

You're trading Garko's bat in for Shoppach's, to upgrade the D at catcher. It's certainly a reasonable thought, but I say no. Tonight was a weird night for Victor behind the plate. I think the dropoff from Garko's bat to Shoppach is large enough to cover Vic's arm.

by dgcambridge on Apr 23, 2007 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

Remember, the key to tomorrow is to slap around Silva, but still make him look like a man; The Twins are in a good enough position as it is WITHOUT Garza.

by nickjs21 on Apr 22, 2007 11:11 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

what's the over-under on how many times a game the broadcasters of the game (home or away) talk about how good the twins bullpen is?

by Brick. on Apr 22, 2007 11:28 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

This may sound like a complaint, but it's just a fact:

Chase Wright gave up 4 straight dongs to Boston tonight.

by JulioBernazard on Apr 22, 2007 11:29 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

Yes, but how many Boston fans complained: They're relying too much on the home run!

by Jay on Apr 23, 2007 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

I was just thinking what a ringing endorsement this season has been for having a lineup of legit home run threats. "Home run dependency." Heh. I love home runs.

by fleerdon on Apr 23, 2007 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

Thought of a better comeback:

Yeah, but they were all solo shots, which just proves that they're not clutch hitters.

by Jay on Apr 23, 2007 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

Yeah, that's not helping their numbers with RISP at all.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on Apr 23, 2007 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions

My thoughts!

Hello everyone,

IIS - while Gutierrez's "hot" streak is great to see, keep in mind that Gutierrz's sample size is smaller than Francisco's, so really, only the BA is better than Francisco's at this point.

Gutierrez:
.361/.395/.500 - 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB/5 K, 2 SB/1 CS in 36 ABs

Francisco:
.306/.414/.469 - 5 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 9 BB/10 K, 5 SB/0 CS in 49 ABs

It looks pretty even to me; Francisco's BB and K rates are both higher than Gutierrez's, plus his SB percentage is better. Also, Francisco's XBH% is higher than Gutierrez's; therefore, don't just look at the higher BA and conclude Gutierrez is doing better - it's pretty even, with even maybe a slight edge for Francisco at this point when you consider all the stats.

I agree though that Gutierrez would be better defensively, mostly because of his better arm, especially if you want a platoon with Trot in RF.

nickjs21 - Silva actually hasn't been that bad:

18.0 IP, 20 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 2.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .282 BAA

I doubt the Twins would remove him from the rotation even if we crushed him tomorrow (which I hope we do, at least, enough to win.)

I suspect that Ponson is the front-runner to be knocked out of the rotation:

15.1 IP, 28 H, 16 R, 16 ER, 4 HR, 7 BB, 10 K, 9.39 ERA, 2.28 WHIP, .389 BAA

Also, from what I've heard, Garza hasn't been doing THAT well at AAA so far:

2.77 ERA, but with 15 H, 9 BB/12 K, .278 BAA, 1.15 GO/AO in 13 IP

I've heard more about RHP Kevin Slowey:

0.00 ERA, with 6 H, 0 BB/11 K, .140 BAA, 0.50 GO/AO in 11.2 IP

so Slowey could be the one to replace Ponson if a pitcher is called up.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Apr 22, 2007 11:56 PM EDT reply actions

Re: My thoughts!

That GO/AO is pretty bad though.

by Joe. on Apr 23, 2007 4:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: My thoughts!

Hi indiansfan,

The sample is small. We agree on that. We also agree on their statistical closeness. I would probably give the edge to edge to Francisco if it weren't for a stat you might have overlooked. A large part of a platoon player is how he hits the pitchers he will be facing and Gutz is hitting LHs far better than Benny at this time. Be fair to Gutz on the defense! You and I both know it isn't just the arm that separates them. :)

IndianInkSlinger

by sdtribefan on Apr 23, 2007 5:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: My thoughts!

Absolutely right -- nobody is looking to trade for Francisco to make him their /starting/ CF.

by Jay on Apr 23, 2007 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

True, but BF wouldn't be playing CF for us on a...

regular basis.

Hello Jay,

Good point, but BF wouldn't be playing CF for us on a regular basis (nor would FG for that matter,) so comparing them on their CF value is only good if one of the two would be traded (which could happen,) but not really on whether they are brought up or not right now since it would be presumed that they're going to be brought up primarily to platoon with Trot in RF and allow Blake to play 3B on a regular basis, moreso than to just showcase them for a possible trade.

Their hitting against LHP would be relevant though - and yes, I can see Francisco is off to a slow start, though I suspect he won't hit just .100 off LHP for long (he hasn't in the past.) I can understand why you'd go with Gutierrez over Francisco, but keep in mind, Gutierrez has played for a week, Francisco has played for three; I'd rather have a larger sample size to gauge how good a hitter is actually hitting - if Gutierrez hits like this or close to it for another week or two, I'd be more inclined to go with him, but Gutierrez has had hot weeks like this before, then slumps, so I wouldn't be ready to promote him just yet.

As for defense, granted, we've already mentioned that Gutierrez is the better defender, and while his range is better than Francisco's, Francisco is hardly a slouch (based on being able to play all 3 OF positions for the last few years,) and compared to guys like Michaels, Nixon, and Dellucci, would probably not be a downgrade (could even be a slight upgrade since he is younger and has played all 3 OF positions on a regular basis, something Nixon and Dellucci have not done.)

Of course, since Marte is now on the DL, someone is going to have to come up NOW, and it seems like that person is Choo, so I think both of our points were taken into consideration. Choo has outperformed Francisco to this point, and Gutierrez has only played for just over a week, and we can't tell for sure right now whether Gutierrez is really starting to crush AAA pitching or if this is just a hot streak like Gutierrez has had before, then falls off.

Keep in mind that Gutz's BB/K ratio at the ML level last year was 3 BB/28 K in 136 ML ABs, hardly stellar, so I don't think you can bring back Gutierrez just on one week of hot AAA hitting - I think you'd need more "proof" than that before you can be reasonably convinced he's really ready to handle ML pitching on a regular basis, since now he'll be expected to be in the starting lineup and produce, instead of being mostly a pinch-runner like he's been used for the most part in his young ML career. While Francisco has had no ML experience, we'll never know what he can do if he remains at AAA; we already know that Gutierrez has promise, but isn't quite ready yet, and one week of hot AAA hitting isn't enough to change that in my opinion.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Apr 23, 2007 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: True, but BF wouldn't be playing CF ....

Hi indiansfan,

Do you think Shapiro brought up Choo to make us both look bad? I know other people in the forum are asking the same question and I cannot think of another reason to make this move unless both Gutz and Benny are on the trade block. BTW, I fully agreee with you about the sample size but it is all we have right now. Maybe I wasn't meant to figure this out! :)

IndianInkSlinger

by sdtribefan on Apr 23, 2007 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Shapiro wants to keep us guessing! :-)

Hello IIS,

Regarding the sample size, really, probably none of them should be up right now because you really can't gauge a player too well on just 1 or even 2-3 weeks of AAA play. Of course, Marte's injury and Blake being forced to play 3B full-time is necessitating the move right now.

My guess for Shapiro's reasoning is two-fold:

Choo has outperformed Francisco and has played longer than Gutierrez has.
Choo has done very well against LHP so far this year (though again, small sample size (SSS) applies.)

Whether Choo was promised he'd be called up first if there was an injury, who knows? That could have factored into it as well.

I'm not sure BOTH BF and FG would be up on the trade block - I could see one of them, certainly, but not two, unless there were TWO great deals or one super deal where we needed to trade both (and I just don't see that type of deal materializing for both BF and FG.)

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Apr 23, 2007 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Shapiro wants to keep us guessing! :-)

Hey, I just read on the Tribe home page that Dellucci is injured and may go on the DL. Also said is only one lefty in the next five days. If Dellucci does not go DL, maybe there will be a move after he comes back that makes more sense. :)

IndianInkSlinger

by sdtribefan on Apr 23, 2007 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: True, but BF wouldn't be playing CF for us on

Can you sum that up in four sentences? I had a lot of spare time earlier today but am a bit pressed for time now.

by Jay on Apr 23, 2007 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: My thoughts!

When it comes to Gutz vs Ben, one advantage I see for Gutz is that he has played at the major-league level already, which could give him an edge, especially in a backup role, which he has done more than BF.

by kov on Apr 23, 2007 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

Side note: It's late, I'm tinkering with my fantasy baseball team on the computer, and I hear a familiar voice on the TV. It's Travis Hafner, starring in a god-awful commercial for Cox Digital Telephone. Good lord. Couldn't wait two years for the big check, Pronk?

by nickjs21 on Apr 23, 2007 12:06 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

His fitworks commercial is terrible too. It's bad ad execs that can't get a funny commercial out of him. He's like the Stephen Wright of the sports world.

by rog on Apr 23, 2007 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

Steven Wright that is.

by rog on Apr 23, 2007 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions

What goes around, comes around!

Hello everyone,

The Yankees got a taste of their own medicine, and actually, didn't handle it as well as the Indians did:

After the Indians got shell-shocked in NY and suffered the sweep, they come back to take 2 of 3 (nearly 3 of 3) against the D'Rays.

The Yankees, conversely, suffer the same fate on Friday that we did on Thursday, losing a game that was pretty much in the bag. However, unlike the Indians, they lost the next two. Yes, I know the Red Sox are still better than the D'Rays (though the offenses aren't as dissimilar as they've been in the past - the D'Rays were #2 in offense at one point just within the last week, if I heard correctly, and as a team, have more H and R than the Red Sox do - TB: 158, 88; Bos: 140, 82) but still, you would think a $200+ million dollar team would be able to beat a what, $175+ million dollar team, at least once, especially since they led both games early on. Yet, the Yankees got swept!

It may go to show that the Yankees' pitching isn't what it used to be (supposedly, they might get Wang back this week and Mussina next week, but neither seem as good as the late 90s/2000 Yankee rotations with guys like Roger Clemens and "El Duce" Hernandez.) I know a few analysts think this COULD be the year the Yankees don't reach the postseason, and while it's early, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility - let's face it, one of these years, the Yankees WON'T make the postseason. After all, the Braves finally didn't last year, so it's bound to end some time for NY - the question is, will this be the year the Yankees stay home in October? (I'd love to see it! Maybe the WC will come out of the Central again - a possibility! :-)

Just my 2 cents.

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Apr 23, 2007 12:09 AM EDT reply actions

Re: What goes around, comes around!

(nearly 3 of 3) against the D'Rays.
*Also, nearly 1 of 3.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Apr 23, 2007 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: What goes around, comes around!

Major difference in the Yankees-Braves arguement. The Braves actually cut payroll for a few consecutive seasons. While the Yankees are also in the process of cutting payroll, they are still at the top.

That said, expecting the Yankees rotation to be amassed with 4 "non-prospect" rookies all season is pointless. Not only should they be in the runnings for Rocket, but they will also be the most active shoppers on the trade market AND they have that guy known as "Phillip Hughes" just hanging around waiting to take a shot.

While this won't be an incredible pitching staff, it should be good enough, with their hitting and deep bullpen to allow them to win more often then not. I think the "experts" are stating this may be the year they miss the playoffs as they anticipate Boston's rotation to stay healthy - imagine if they lose their #1 and #3 pitcher, as the Yankees have - and for the Jays to make a considerable run this season. I think both are bold predictions as it is rare for an opening day starting rotation to stay healthy, and the Jays themselves have already hit a considerable speed bump.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Apr 23, 2007 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Game Fifteen: Indians 6, Devil Rays 4

J-Mast owes Garko a case of beer
Garko seems like the type of guy that would actually accept a case of beer as some sort of reward/gift. I don't know why this guy isn't in the lineup everyday.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on Apr 23, 2007 8:05 AM EDT reply actions