PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Just saw the news at indians.com. Rosario's an 18 year old pitcher from the Dominican Republic who has yet to play in the minor leagues.
According to the previously linked article
... and, of course, they don't know where we're going to put him.
Thoughts? Anyone?
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Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
It'll be interesting to see what Baseball America has to say about him. Not much in the past.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by MatthewLL on May 17, 2007 9:01 PM EDT reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by homelytourist on May 17, 2007 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
As I stated, it seems like Shapiro's back was against the wall and he had to take SOMETHING. Whether this is a good or bad trade, none of us will know for almost another decade, so there really isn't any point in commenting...EXCEPT:
I just wish a team at the top of the division would have worked hard at improving its current situation.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by woodsmeister on May 18, 2007 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
This is an entirely different tone then the one that was given a week ago. It seemed as though posters here thought that there would be some form of "bidding war". With that in mind, this scenario could not have been further from a "bidding war".
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
The problem is, when people are "bidding" with nickles and dimes it can HARDLY be considered a "war". Had the prospect come from a team in NEED of relief pitching OR been a higher level prospect OR been a prospect not from a franchise that is run by a man who is a "moron" then I may consider that there MIGHT have been a bidding war. However, seeing as though the prospect came from Seattle and has never thrown a pitch in America, its safe to say Shapiro was not fending off offers for BA top 100 players!
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
(i.e, there is no reason that a "moron" cannot outbid his competition - in fact, that is often what happens in a "bidding war"). Thus, although it is indeed possible that you are correct, your argument still fails.
Bottom line is none of us know whether or not a bidding war occurred (although given Shapiro's track record, it is not unreasonable to presume that one did) - problem is, your analysis doesn't get to that question.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
And the reality is, those factors are important.
Consider this:
Team A is desperate for pitching help.
Team B is not desperate for pitching help.
Team C is in need of help, but could get by without it.
Team D loves stockpiling arms.
Whom would you assume would offer the best player? Obviously A, followed by C, D and B.
However, in this instance, Team A did not get the pitcher and were either uninterested or did not offer "enough" - which in and of itself would be strange given their "desperation" and the fact that they are knowingly in a "bidding war".
Team B ends up with the pitcher and does not give up anything substantial for a ML pitcher.
Now tell me, HOW IS IT that team need has nothing to do with gauging whether or not there was in fact a "bidding war". Continuing, how is it that a prospect that seems pretty low on the radar screen was the "winning bid" if infact there was a "war" ensuing?
So I will not deny that there were probably other offers. I bet every team sent out atleast one offer. But the fact that the player that got the job done was such a low level player and had come from a team not even CLOSE to being desperate, I think it is safe to say it was more of a picnic then a "war".
by Brandini on May 19, 2007 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
And when the team who acquires him has no bullpen issues to speak of, its tough to believe they were breaking the bank to get him.
Unless, this is a kid that Shapiro has had his eye on for quite some time.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Counterthoughts!
No offense, but:
"I just have a feeling there wasn't much "bidding" going on. Given how "desperate" StLouis is made out to be and the problems other teams are having with their pens you've gotta think they would offer something of better value for a ML pitcher."
Your feeling equates to trying to get inside the head of Shapiro and the negotiations, correct? In other words, you don't know for sure - you're just guessing, correct?
"And when the team who acquires him has no bullpen issues to speak of, its tough to believe they were breaking the bank to get him."
Actually, that's not entirely true - Mateo was suspended by the Mariners because of the domestic incident where his wife allegedly had five stitches inserted into her mouth. The Mariners demoted him to AAA and eventually put him on their AAA inactive list. That's why there is a greivance by the Players' Union regarding Mateo - it will cost him sizable money from his salary if he remains there.
A AAA pitcher with less experience than Davis was brought up at first to replace Mateo, so saying that the Mariners didn't have bullpen issues isn't exactly accurate in my opinion. That's the main reason they went after Davis in the first place - if they didn't have any bullpen issues to speak of, why would they bother going after Davis? Is he that stellar and a "must-have" pitcher to even offer a prospect at all for him if they didn't have a need for him? They obviously had to have a need for him or they likely wouldn't have offered ANYTHING for him - they would have either allowed someone else to trade for him (and it seems there were other teams interested in him, according to published reports) or they would have let him go on waivers and tried to pick him up there for nothing but his contract if they were able to.
Saying that the Mariners didn't have a bullpen need isn't accurate in my opinion.
"Unless, this is a kid that Shapiro has had his eye on for quite some time."
From what others have said in this thread, especially regarding the fact that the Indians tried to sign him 3 years ago, but were outbid, that seems like a reasonable possibility. In any case, I think it's safe to assume that they had a lot more information on Rosario than was publicly known by us fans, which probably further convinced the Indians to take Seattle's offer for Davis.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
A lot of the desperate teams simply don't have much to want either.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
this entire debacle is making me very, very tired of M's fans.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
What in the last year has Bavasi done that was so terrible? Everyone got on him about the Vidro trade, that seems to be working out. He acquired Broussard and Perez for two prospects that were unlikely to make much of an impact for his team. He signed Guillen to a reasonable contract, and that is working out alright. Johjima, Ibanez.
I'm not saying he is without flaws, but the guy hasn't done a terrible job with his team and resources. Certain players (Sexson and Beltre) ended up being overpaid, but both of whom were hot comodities - or so it seemed. He's made a couple of so-so trades (specifically, Soriano and Guillen), however neither did not come without a reasonable explanation (injury concern).
Again, his track record is not as terrible as one makes it out to be. Rarely has a prospect from the Ms organization went on to have immidiate and lasting success with another organization. That isn't the barometer to measure a player by, however, it discards the notion that any player acquired from the Ms is going to be of quality.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
You can pay someone $10M to fill a position and if he outperforms who was there before, that is good. But if it is only marginal, say +10 OPS+, wouldn't it have been better to spend that dough on two complimentary players to fill two roles (say RP and LF) for the same cost and the same +10 OPS+?
I think you'd have to agree yes. But you won't.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I agree that the Ms probably could have gotten better or equal player for the same or less money, however Vidro is quite flexible - something Piazza and Thomas are not.
Also, consider that the team does not have any REAL holes to fill and are not really cash strapped.
It is interesting that you bash Vidro at $10M but have no beef with Nixon, Dellucci and Borowski at their salaries. Would the Indians not have been better served bringing in an Eric Gagne and filling the other holes from within?
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Oh, I agree -- but you apply the opposite standard when it comes to Indians trades. Of course the M's would be better off with the two prosepcts -- trading them for something more valuable -- and the $12 million -- spending it on something more valuable.
A player of equivalent value could have been acquired for far less. A guy like Julio Franco or Jack Cust, for example. I am amazed, after the 10,000 words on Byrd-vs.-Castillo, that this isn't obvious to you. But I guess everyone but Shapiro gets the huge rationalized free pass from you.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Vidro although flexible and "league average" is not worth $12M in your opinion YET Byrd is worth his $8M and well below "league average".
Shapiro gets plenty of passes from me! Although I'm sure he doesn't care. The thing that you miss out on, is how many poor signings Shapiro does. Your excuse, "Well atleast he didn't break the bank". And you are right, he didn't, but MAYBE he would be better off doing such in order to get players that are "league average", rather then signing cheap duds!
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Rosario has a much better chance of being
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: Rosario has a much better chance of being
by homelytourist on May 17, 2007 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
(Andrew, where's my gavel?)
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
So do you think this was one of those 'scout X fell in love with this guy and told the FO to get him if they ever had a chance' or simply a 'look at the list of guys you can pick from and pick the one that you like the best'?
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Oh, and I found that link I spoke of below. Here. Indians/Mets treat their Dominican signees well.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario

This is a picture I took of me giving Jay his new gavel.
by afh4 on May 18, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by drerikbrady on May 18, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
But hey, since your team only likes to joke around in the dugout after a game gets snowed out (which now in the long run, hurts your team by having to make 3 more trips to Cleveland), I could understand your confusion.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Exactly, see sbricker's reply to the M's fan above.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by nctribefan on May 18, 2007 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
It mentions:
Rosario is the most projectable pitcher in this group at 6-4, 185 and just 18 years of age. He made 13 starts in the DSL a year ago and piled up 68 1/3 innings allowing 67 hits (2 HR), striking out 62 and issuing 25 walks.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'll take that. As Shapiro claimed, some of his previous deals were about artificially augmenting the draft. voila.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
On one hand, we got someone for a "AAAA" roster burden who has exhausted his projectability.
On the other hand, we gave up a Major Leaguer (of sorts) for a guy whose chances are remote and is years away even with consistent progress.
This Rosario guy could be a homerun. That's exciting, I guess.
by homelytourist on May 18, 2007 12:10 AM EDT reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
And it's worked - the farm system is filled with guys who deserve a shot to advance, even if there aren't many whose performance demands it.
Shap's only comment prior to this was that they had their eye on a guy with "huge upside". I guess this is the guy - raw and unproven but with a lot of potential. I hope we approach the draft next month the same way and stock up on young high ceiling talent. We can now afford to do so.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 4:54 AM EDT reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Furthermore, could you list off those players that went on to have even a slight amount of success and how it in turn hurt the Ms?
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Specifically, Bavasi has acquired poorly (Beltre, Sexson, Guardado, Vidro, Weaver), managed his assetts poorly (didn't maximize value), and traded poorly (Soriano, Choo, Cabbie), He got Johjima because of his Nintendo owner's Japanese influence, not his genius. He both spent a lot and got little production. He and Isiah Thomas must be sharing GM secrets. His family's baseball pedigree has probably saved him, but he's managed to use up its goodwill in 3 years, no mean feat.
Above all, the Mariner's won-loss record is a disaster the past three years. And although they are 20-20 this year, they have scored 18 runs fewer than they've given up. Not a good portent. Sure, maybe they compete anyway this year. But the odds are they will fall back as the odds catch up with them.
He's also going to lose Ichiro after the season. The guy is tired of losing and is already speaking of the Mariners in the past tense in Japanese newspapers. Ichiro is not as money focused as others. He wants his career to be capped by playing on winning teams, not an organization that is squandering its money and its assets. If Seattle doesn't make a suprise move deep into the playoffs, he's gone.
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Second, who said he managed his assets poorly with Soriano, Choo and Astro? Soriano, maybe, but a starter is clearly more valuable then a reliever and Soriano had some serious injury concerns - there were reports of him not being able to hit 90 during his winter league. Choo, lets wait and see on that one, hes obviously not currently better then Nixon, who is the type of player that is available annually. Astro, this is yet to be seen. He did not have a spot upcoming for the Mariners given their strong MI core, and again, will need to prove himself. If he goes on to do nothing at the ML level, acquiring a ML player even for half of a season was worth it.
He has done a poor job acquiring starting pitching. There is no denying that. He has also made mistakes that are made league-wide. He will lose Ichiro, but the continual bashing of him does not make sense. In my opinion, hes probably about average. If Choo, Soriano, Astro, etc go on to having productive ML careers, then those can go down as mistakes and will make his resume look much worse. But for now, you can't grade him on those happenings.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by E5 on May 19, 2007 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
The arguement can be made that Davis won the job due to contractual obligations, but then is the GM admitting that he placed a lesser player on the 25 man roster just because he is signed? That is a scary thought!
Or another arguement can be made that the reason Davis was on the roster was because they needed to "see what they had", but again, what did they see in 11 innings this year, that they had not seen in 390 previous innings over 5 seasons?
This trade really makes no difference in the big picture. It is unlikely either player developes into a star - although, given Bavasi and Shapiro's "record" is it not safe to assume this kid is a dud and Davis will become a stud? However, I have a tough time swallowing the pill that reads, "I did not put my best 25 man roster on the field for opening day."
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 9:43 AM EDT reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
That said, Shapiro made a decision THEN to not move Davis and thus decided to start the season with a "worse" performer - if in fact he feels Mujica is a superior pitcher, which, he obviously does.
As I stated, the value is not my real issue, rather, the method. Shapiro's back was against the wall in this situation as he gave himself absolutely ZERO leverage in negotiations - other then, "Look, this team is willing to toss in the rights to Bonds' record tying HR".
So I understand certain factors, I just don't feel as though Shapiro dealt with Davis in a very intelligent manner.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'm reposting this from another thread because I'm not sure if you saw this when I originally posted. The thread was dying by the time I got in on it. I still do not agree that Shapiro's back was against the wall. My justification is outlined below. While it may not have worked out the way that I believed it might, I still feel like he had a stronger position to negotiate from now than he would've had in spring training. My original post is below.
This is how I see it. If you consider this from an opposing FO's perspective, I'm not so sure that some of the teams that may bid for JD's services would have offered more in offseason, or would have had any interest at all.
Early in the offseason there are still a fair number of free-agents available that an opposing FO could target. So they might have been interested in JD, but probably not to the point of making a great offer for him, not when there are lots of options available. Late in the offseason and into spring training, they should have a pretty good notion of who they plan to start the season with. Even if they aren't overjoyed with who they have, their 25 and 40 man rosters are getting set and at the very least, most are going to decide to give what they have a chance to succeed or fail. Again, not a seller's market for us re: JD. Now that the season has started, you have to consider injuries. Generally there aren't very many situations where a FO has advanced knowledge of an injury to someone on their starting staff or their relief corps.
So how does this put the Tribe in a better position (as a seller) than a team like St. Louis (as a buyer)? They certainly would never have expected to have lost Carpenter and Hancock. Those are two guys that they were certain would be on their roster. During the offseason, if you project having those guys, maybe you're not interested in trading for guy like Jason Davis. During spring training, their staff is still doing okay, no big injuries, no one vastly underperforming. So they set their roster and start the season. Then Carpenter gets hurt and Hancock drives into a cement truck. So St. Louis finds themselves in the position of actually needing to pick up some pitching when they never would've projected such a need in the off season. Free agents are long gone (excepting Clemens and even he's gone now). So if they don't have 2 ML ready arms in their minor league system, they are now forced to make a trade.
I see St. Louis' back against the wall.
Not ours.
Not when we have a pitcher that St. Louis may perceive as an absolute need at this point. If St. Louis was the only team in need of pitching, then I would agree that they could just sit tight and wait, claim him off waivers and we would get nothing for a pitcher who has repeatedly underperformed for us over several years. But the premium to make a good or even mildly great offer gets driven up based on the number of teams that have gaps in their pitching staff. And the last time I checked, there were certainly more than a handful of teams in that category, including the Yankees, who are capable of single-handedly driving up a premium.
by drerikbrady on May 18, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Again, not a seller's market for us re: JD. Now that the season has started, you have to consider injuries.
This comment holds little water considering the Phillips move of 2006. A 2B struggling to find himself as a hitter is much less valuable league-wide then a pitcher who has had moderate success as both a starter and a reliever. The same teams that were "bidding" for Davis this last week, will essentially be the same ones bidding on him in April 1st. There may be some odd exceptions with injuries and such, but this is contrary to how things unfolded given the team that traded for him has almost perfect health - thus your St.Louis comment is void.
Also, consider any team trading for Davis is trading for him as a reliever, not a starter. Had a trade occurred between December and April, the team would have ST to stretch him out/see what hes got as a starter AND the month of April. Whereas right now, Davis has been on a reliever throwing program for the last 3 months and is very unlikely to be stretched out for the 2007 season. Thus, his value is solely as a reliever, which does not have the market value of a starter.
So again, you have a flawed arguement, simply by what occurred. Whether there was a "bidding war" or not, we do not know right now. Given that the prospect sent was a PTBNL and one that has never thrown a pitch in the minors - coupled with VERY limited information about him - I will suggest there was not much of a "war" if any at all. Probably only a handfull of serious offers.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I can't argue with that. Like I admitted, this didn't come out exactly the way that I suggested.
"This comment holds little water considering the Phillips move of 2006. A 2B struggling to find himself as a hitter is much less valuable league-wide then a pitcher who has had moderate success as both a starter and a reliever."
I think your example is the one that fails here. The timing of these two moves is so radically different that you're trying to compare apples and bicycles. And I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on the level of interest that certain teams would have shown on April 1st vs. mid-May. I still see no reason why St. Louis or the Yankees would've remotely been interested on April 1st. But I can clearly see reasons for why they might have kicked the tires on a deal in mid-May.
"Also, consider any team trading for Davis is trading for him as a reliever, not a starter. Had a trade occurred between December and April, the team would have ST to stretch him out/see what hes get as a starter AND the month of April."
I struggle to believe that many teams would have ever viewed JD as an answer as a starting pitcher, not with a ML track record that pointed to a lack of aptitude for that role. They may have chosen to stretch him and tried him in the role. I don't know. But I doubt that a club would target JD for that when there were plenty of other free agent arms available on the market during the same time frame.
"Given that the prospect sent was a PTBNL and one that has never thrown a pitch in the minors - coupled with VERY limited information about him - I will suggest there was not much of a "war" if any at all."
Given that Shapiro is more experienced and knowledgeable about running a baseball team than I am, I'll grant him a pass on this deal. Also, I would caution you on your presumption that there is VERY limited information available about this prospect. I would wager that Shapiro has a lot more information available to him than we do. Particularly if they did in fact attempt to sign him 3 years ago and got outbid, as is suggested elsewhere in the thread.
by drerikbrady on May 18, 2007 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I was referring to moving Davis before the season started. The movement all along has been people arguing that Davis has more value today, then he did on April 1st. This is a tough concept for me to comprehend given what occured with Phillips in 2006.
As for the Yanks and Cards, you can never have too much pitching. The Yanks were breaking down in ST and the Cards had some questionable arms in their bullpen. However, given that a trade today for Davis would result in a month or more of stretching him out, do you really think he has that much value to the Cards or Yanks? I can agree that Byrd has more value today then he did in ST - performance aside - however a team having to spend a month or more stretching out a pitcher probably would prefer to avoid the headache and fix within.
As for the final comment, I imagine you are correct. I also imagine that given how quickly Shapiro named the player to be named, he had his eye on the kid and just wanted a little more information.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Also, you are talking two entirely different scenarios:
- Grady entered 2005 with 138 unspectacular ML at bats, coupled with a good - nearly great for his age - minor league resume.
- Mujica on the other hand had a solid stint with the Tribe last season, coupled with excellent minor league reliever numbers.
- Grady was "held back" by a future HOFer.
- Mujica was "held back" by a player that was essentially released.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Anyways, as has been discussed before, ad nauseum, JD made the final 25 mainly based on his contract status. I think you agree on that point based on above.
So then you fault Shapiro for not dealing him at the end of spring training. At the end of spring training, almost every team has their 25+ guys. To try and trade JD would more than likely have netted us nothing, we would probably have had to release him, and he ends up in KC.
But since he was still serviceable, we kept him. Waited a month into the season, while all the other teams started to have injury problems. DFAing him at this point caused teams to finally decide if they were willing to give up something for him. JD still has talent, he just overstayed his welcome here. I'm betting if we had dealt him to Seattle at the end of spring training, we could not have gotten anything like this kid for him. And this kid could turn out to be nothing too. But lay off Shapiro please, he's done a very good job overall.
I hope we keep winning, so your posts become more and more infrequent.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I suggested that as a possible reason. I don't think we will ever really know. Given that Davis was traded for a PTBNL in the middle of May, it seems as if he could have been traded for a PTBNL on April 1st - or in Spring Training for that matter.
So then you fault Shapiro for not dealing him at the end of spring training. At the end of spring training, almost every team has their 25+ guys. To try and trade JD would more than likely have netted us nothing, we would probably have had to release him, and he ends up in KC.
Obviously ignoring the fact that the Indians traded Phillips for a PTBNL at the end of spring last year. Whether he traded Davis in December or April really has no barring. Given that most were certain this move by Shapiro would create a "bidding war" I think it is obvious that Davis would not have gotten "released" at the end of spring training.
I also imagine teams would have given more had they had all spring to work with him and possibly stretch him out as a starter. Don't tell me that all 29 major league teams had their rotation set in stone a the beginning of ST, let alone on April 1st!
Waited a month into the season, while all the other teams started to have injury problems.
Injury problems? Is that why the team that traded for him has an intact bullpen with zero injuries since opening day?
Again, if Shapiro was hoping to increase Davis' value by shopping him to teams looking for a healthy arm, he made a larger mistake then I gave him credit for!
I hope we keep winning, so your posts become more and more infrequent.
Thanks, possibly check out the last diary I posted and see if that topic has anything to do with it. Also note, my lack of posts have not been due to the Tribe doing well, infact, almost every player I expected to fail - Shapiro signings - has in fact failed! And miserably! So if performance was a reason for me not posting, would I not be in my glory moment given how terrible all of those players have performed? In fact, only ONE of Shapiro's offseason moves has had any success. And that was the player most agreed was the biggest shot in the dark.
As I mentioned, this was not a TERRIBLE trade. It might end up being an excellent one. I just do not understand why it was not made on opening day or prior to then. The object is to win and put the best players on the field. Shapiro/Wedge obviously failed to do so for Opening Day.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
BRANDINI4INDIANSGMIN2008.COM
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I stated numerous occassions that this trade was not a bad one, I actually like it! I just personally do not understand the method/timing. Similar to me not understanding signing Nixon. Similar to me not understanding sending Garko to triple A in favor of Perez/Broussard.
But as a fan of the team, am I not allowed to question the moves made by the team? Do you not watch games and make comments when a player makes an errant throw or a poor base running decision?
I agree that often I am critical of Shapiro, but that is because I expect to see this team challenging for a championship this season, and, lets be honest, he has not made moves to go in that direction.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I ALREADY BOUGHT THE DOMAIN.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by woodsmeister on May 18, 2007 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Borowski is the answer at closer?
Hernandez as a set up man?
Nixon the RF answer?
Barfield the answer?
Again, there was not one move made this offseason that could point to a drastic improvement for this team. Not like Sheffield going to the Tigers or something to that extent. I understand the economic restraints, but lets not fool ourselves into thinking the offseason moves were good enough to push this team over the top.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
- He was meant to be half an answer (Foulke)
Hernandez as a set up man?
- Again, part of an answer (Betancourt)
Nixon the RF answer?
- Again, part of an answer (Blake)
Barfield the answer?
- Yes
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Loretta, Giles and Vidro are all having superior statistical seasons then Barfield. Superior is actually an understatement! Will this continue? Who knows.
Nixon is part of the answer?
How come Choo could not have been "part" of the answer? Again, IMO wasted money.
Hernandez is part of the answer?
Hernandez has pitched himself OUT of the setup role. I do not think that you could suggest the Indians had any intentions of an 8th inning of Hernandez/Betancourt. Prior to Hernandez sucking, he was the guy who was getting the ball in the 8th, with Betancourt taking the ball in the 7th.
Borowski is the only one who gets a pass. Although wouldn't the team look better with Choo+Gagne then Borowski+Foulke+Nixon? Probably.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Loretta, Giles and Vidro
- Um, Age, Dollars, Ceiling, Years under control.
How come Choo could not have been "part" of the answer?
-He COULD have been. Nixon was a surer bet.
I do not think that you could suggest the Indians had any intentions of an 8th inning of Hernandez/Betancourt.
-I didn't, the Indians did:
By Sheldon Ocker | Mar 26, 2007 |
Not much has been said about the Indians' setup situation.
Manager Eric Wedge confirmed again Sunday that Rafael Betancourt and Roberto Hernandez probably will get the first crack at the job. However, Wedge qualified his endorsement of the two relievers to this extent.
"It doesn't need to be just one guy," Wedge said. "I look at (Aaron) Fultz and (Matt) Miller as guys who can pitch in that inning, too, depending on the lineup and other things."
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Game 002 - 8th inning Hernandez, 7th inning Betancourt
Game 004e - 8th inning Hernandez, Betancourt cleaned up the mess
If you look throughout the scheduel, Betancourt did not have an 8th inning hold until quite far into the month of April. Hernandez had come in for the 8th inning on multiple ocassions duruing a tie game.
Although Wegde may have "said" that he does not have "one guy", he was clearly treating it like that.
"Loretta, Giles and Vidro
- Um, Age, Dollars, Ceiling, Years under control."
We were talking answer, not dollars and cents. And given the Nixon, Dellucci, Borowski signings, spending $2.5M on Loretta and getting something of worth, would have been money well spent.
"-He COULD have been. Nixon was a surer bet."
Surer bet? What was Nixon a lock for? I haven't read or seen anything that would suggest that Nixon was a better bet then Choo this season.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Hernandez was the best set-up man we could afford to supplement what we had.
Nixon was already a quality major leaguer while there were doubts about the potential performance of Choo and Gutierrez. If you want to win now, you go with the quality veteran. If he comes cheap, even better.
Barfield is most definitely the answer.
by woodsmeister on May 18, 2007 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
What's so great about there being one move that makes an impact? What's wrong with five moves that have a cumulative impact?
The economics: The Tigers will pay Sheffield $41 million and gave up two decent prospects as well. There is a good chance he will hit like a league-average corner OF for those three seasons. That's what he's been this season so far -- and also last season -- 110 OPS+. Even regardless of the economics, I don't see the charm.
As it happens, the Indians will pay something very close to $41 million for:
- Five years of Barfield
- Three years of Dellucci
- One year of Borowski + 2nd year option
- One year of Hernandez + 2nd year option
- One year of Fultz + 2nd year option
- One year of Nixon
By the way, props for picking Fultz as the surprise hit among our new acquisitions.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Sigh. Go, mainstream media, go.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
So Sheffield is "league average", could you explain to me what that makes Dellucci, Nixon, Barfield?!? By your "logic", that threesome is equal to a single A player!
110OPS+ I guess a broken wrist means nothing, right?
Continuing...
- Borowski is an improvement to what the team already had? Please rationalize that with statistics.
- Hernandez is an improvement over what the team already had? Please rationalize that with statistics.
- Nixon is an improvement over what the team already had? Please rationalize that with statistics.
- Dellucci is an improvement over what the team already had? Please rationalize that with statistics.
- Barfield is an improvement over what the team already had/could have had? Please rationalize that with statistics.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
You are missing the point though. This is an enclosed case of what I feel is mismanagement. How you can rationalize it was a good move, to me, is ridiculous. Just for a second, ignore the players names.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
That's too funny.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'm not missing your point. Very few here miss any point you make.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
You are missing my point, as all I stated was Shapiro made a minor judgement error. It then turned into a "i told you so" as everyone supported every move Shapiro made in the offseason. Since Shapiro "gave up" on Davis after 11 innings, how come the rest of you are not following suit and "giving up" on the moves he made this offseason?
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Because they've worked.
by woodsmeister on May 19, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Nixon has worked?
Hernandez has worked?
Dellucci has worked?
Barfield has worked?
by Brandini on May 20, 2007 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
His HRs are "on pace" for his total of last year, but he is on pace to break his career high in steals - negligible factor even given his zero CSs.
After April last year, Grady had a sigle HR. This year, 5.
But consider Peralta, Martinez and Garko. All three are well above the numbers the Tribe were getting to this point. Even Shoppach is - although another irrelavent number.
by Brandini on May 20, 2007 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Sizemore '06 .290 /.375 /.533
And he's been turning it on lately. He'll hit .300 /.400 /530 before it's over. He's a better player than his current numbers.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Is that what you truly believe? He's blown two saves in addition to the meltdown in New York. But each time, he's bounced back and thrown well in his next opportunities. I can't think of anyone in last year's bullpen that was capable of that. 12 saves, 3rd in the AL. That Borowski? He's been awful?? Oh you mean Ted Borowski, yeah, he sucks.
Actually, I've been pleasantly surprised. I wouldn't classify him as awful in any way, shape or form.
Here's the part where you tell me about how high his ERA is. Go ahead. Get it out of system.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Remember, at this time last year:
- Byrd had an ERA over 6.
- Sabathia had missed a month of the season
- Sizemore had just hit his 5th HR and had fewer then half the SBs + a bunch of CS
- Betancourt had an ERA around 6 and had missed 15 days
- Martinez had seen his average drop 90+points and was playing with an injury
- Peralta had half the HR
I give Shapiro credit where he is due. He put together a nice team entering this past offseason, but PLEASE do not give his offseason work of this year credit for what they are doing to this point.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by E5 on May 19, 2007 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
J.D. has huge stuff, and the Indians believe in his work ethic. His performance last season showed promise, possibliy a step forward. His talent is such that he's a marginal player if he can't put it together, but a potential All-Star if he can. Big risk/reward guy. That has always been the frustration with him, and that has always been the reason why he wasn't let go.
You obsess over this "didn't take the best 25 guys" thing, but you're missing the bigger picture. We don't play with a 25-man roster, we play with a 40-man roster -- whichever 25 of 40 we need the most on any given day. This should be obvious to anyone who has watched the Indians particularly this season and last.
What was the reward for holding onto J.D.? The potential for him to break out and be a significant contributor in the bullpen. What was the cost? Our seventh reliever for 40 games was J.D. rather than Mujica. (As a side note, I don't think there is a shred of evidence that there was a better trade market for J.D. in the offseason than there was this week. We got absolutely nothing for Guthrie and used Brown as a throw-in; J.D. was worth more than those guys, but not much more.)
This is a bit like sending the runner from 1B on a full count with one out. If the batter gets a hit, you win big, netting at least a sac-fly opportunity. If the batter strikes out, the runner either advances to scoring position with two outs or is thrown out to end the inning. Where is the risk in this move? Only that you might lose an opportunity to have a man on 1B with two outs. Since that's not much of an opoprtunity, the move is not much of a risk, certainly not as much as the potential reward.
Keeping J.D. on the roster is just like sending that runner -- a variety of possible outcomes, very little risk and nice little possible reward. GM's don't get to deal with absolute values, they get to deal with probabilities and potential scenarios. I know you will claim to understand this, but it never finds its way into your opinions.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Its an inconsequential loss. JD's value is held in his ability to throw hard...thats about it. I think he's been a little over-rated on this site, at least recently. He's no longer a SP, and has not put together enough success in years to warrant him being at the peak of his trade value (he probably reached that point the year we had him going in as our No.2 guy in the rotation) At this point he's a "flyer" for some team to take and a roadblock for one of our younger relievers. I'm happy with what we got back in return, not expecting what some on here were predicting (AA guys, etc) Young tall pitching talent, making up for the fact that we lost many of our draft picks this past offseason.
I don't see how this is a bad move, nor do I see how in any way Shapiro could have made a bad move!.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Anyways, The reason J.D. was not traded before opening day is simple: He still had a chance to contribute. Entirely reasonable. I can see Shapiro sitting in his office in December - or after all the signings were complete and saying, "I'm going to let Davis, Cabrera and Betancourt fight it out for the final two spots in the bullpen. I'll even allow for my players with options to take a swing at things." That is actually a LOGICAL perspective and I entirely understand it.
Foulke retires, and Shapiro, although irritated and upset is joyful as now all three of the aforementioned pitchers have a spot in the bullpen. He allows for the pitchers with options to battle it out, giving them hope, but inside, he knew they never had a chance.
But in that final note, is where the problem lies. I understand that JD is out of options and he was worth a shot, what I DON'T understand is how after 11 innings Shapiro could walk in and make this decision. ELEVEN INNINGS! And even though the sample size is ridiculously small, the 11 innings weren't even that bad.
In fact, it was only a single outting that truly did him in. An outting that represents 3% of his season yet 33% of his walk total.
So there inlies the problem. Shapiro made a decision based on 11 innings. And in reality, he made it based on a single appearance against the Os. So this SAME thought process is what irks me ever so slightly. It is interesting that there was no room on the roster for Davis as the last reliever on the depth chart and that after 11 innings Shapiro is CERTAIN he could not continue to build on his "success" last year, YET Borowski is STILL the closer. Yet Hernandez is still logging meaningful innings. Yet Sowers is still being handed the ball every fifth day. Yet Blake is still in the everyday lineup. Yet Dellucci is still regularly in the lineup.
Do you see this trend? How is it that Davis got "booted" yet the rest of these players who are struggling to a greater extent are still playing vital roles?
I understand some of the veteran experience and I also understand "hunches" and feelings. But what I don't understand is making this move after 11 innings.
Furthermore, the value for the trade is fine. I would have been fine with this value at any point. That Davis was DFA'ed was not the right decision given his role on the club.
Also, comparing Davis to Guthrie and Brown is entirely different. First, Davis has had some success at the big league level. As both a starter and a reliever. Guthrie and Brown have hardly had a sniff at the show and weren't very impressive for the duration of it. That said, as a starter, I believe Davis had more value and thus a December/ST trade would have netted the most for Davis.
Again, this is about methodology. Maybe Shapiro will come out and say, "Yea, Davis regressed, so I had to move him," OR he could come out and say, "I made a mistake holding onto him for the last 3 years" Either way is not a BIG DEAL, I would just hate for another more valuable player to lose their job because of a short slump.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Jason Davis has been with the big league team off and on since 2002. Even if you disregard his time as a starter, Shapiro has several seasons' worth of data on him. Sample size is hardly an issue.
The man throws neither his 4-seamer nor his breaking ball for strikes. Ed Mujica throws nothing but strikes. The seventh reliever has one job, and Eddy Moo not only does it better than J.D. right now, but also he probably will continue to do so for as long as they play professional baseball. DFA'ing Davis and replacing him with Mujica makes this team better.
by fleerdon on May 18, 2007 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Keeping Davis to begin with was not necessarily a clear-cut decision. They justified keeping him due to the options, based on feeling that others with options weren't necessarily much better than he was. Things change, and it starts looking less and less like a close decision between Davis and the options guys.
Far more important, though, is that J.D. pitching those 11 innings was not the only thing that happened since they broke camp in Winter Haven. The performances of others in the Cleveland and Buffalo bullpens also happened. The Cleveland bullpen performed well but not that well, occasionally showing some strain from overwork. The Buffalo crew generally was doing well. Using that seventh spot to shuttle the options guys in and out, as needed -- the value of being able to do that went up in Wedge and Shapiro's view.
It's never just about one player. It's about options.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
What I am saying, is that he made a mistake. It isn't one that killed this team. But it didn't help. To me, it just goes on the list with Borowski, Hernandez, Dellucci, Gonzalez, etc. Not "fire worthy" moves, just questionable ones.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by drerikbrady on May 18, 2007 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Also, making moves that wash out the bad. IE locking up Grady, making a trade for one of the top 3B prospects in the game, being atop the organization that drafted Sowers, Miller, Lofgren, etc.
I think that a baseball GM has 3-6 bad moves for every good one. It is Shapiro's job to ensure that the 3-6 bad moves are not devastating to the organization and to keep it closer to 3 then 6.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by drerikbrady on May 18, 2007 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I mean, could there be a sentence that more perfectly distills the essense of Brandini? This doesn't even make sense. How is it possible that every single GM makes three to six times more bad moves than good ones? It's a zero sum game man; the bad moves have to equal the good moves. I mean, this is just crazy talk. This sounds like something Steve Phillips would say. My head hurts just trying to think about it.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
No one has any way of knowing the difference Mujica vs Davis would have had on the team, but it probably would not have changed much. Would you have rather had less depth? And does anyone really know if Shapiro tried to trade JD earlier? You have knowledge that he didn't?
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I already stated the difference would have been minimal, but it is still something. What if Shapiro treated all 25 roster spots in that manner? Then it would be noticable.
Less Depth? From the last arm in the bullpen? When there was a pitcher recently SOLD to Japan. Lets be serious, bullpen depth of so-so pitchers is not an issue with this organization. Also, is depth on May 17th less important then depth on April 1st? If so, hardly!
I do not have knowledge that he did not try. Do you have knowledge that he did? Given that the trade happened rather quickly, and to a team that had little need for another bullpen arm - no serious health issues or underperformance - I think it is safe to say a trade COULD have occurred to this team in the offseason. Since it didn't, it appears as if he did not "try" to trade him earlier.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Even minimal differences may be laid at Shapiro's feet. If Santana had no-hit this team yesterday, it would be Mark Shapiro's fault because we did not have Santana, and, barring that, did not have someone who could hit Santana on that day. In fact, whenever this team loses a game it becomes Shapiro's fault for not putting out the team that could win that day's game.
I'm sorry, but your argument reduces to absurdity.
And please don't accuse me of missing your point or not reading your post correctly. I'm tired of that being your response every time someone questions the absurd and ridiculous arguments you make and extrapolates from your posts the logic of what you are arguing, questionable as that logic may be.
by woodsmeister on May 18, 2007 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Prior to 2007, Shapiro ran headlong in the opposite direction -- in part because he saw no other obvious flaw on the team (other than a grit deficit of course). He signed four free agent relievers and kept as many guys in the minors as he could. He even kept Sikorski around, despite the promising big-league debuts of a half-dozen other pitchers slated for Buffalo. The only pitchers he let go were, in fact, guys who were out of options (Brown and Guthrie) -- guys he couldn't keep even if he wanted to, because of his free agent signings.
I think Shapiro's actions (and statements) made clear that he wanted two things for the Indians bullpen this season: (1) No shortage of veteran pitchers to put into key roles if necessary. (2) No shortage of quality arms to throw in there at any given moment.
Davis was one of those quality arms of course, but his lack of options limited the Indians' ability to play any given week with 30 rather than 25. He also was less of a long-term asset than the guys waiting in Buffalo, all of whom are under control through 2013.
That is basically the whole story here. Shapiro kept everyone he could to start the year, probably gnashed his teeth losing Guthrie in fact. But it's not the start of the year anymore.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
ENTIRELY INCORRECT! Shapiro tried his HARDEST to land one of the top teir FA closers. BJ Ryan, Trevor Hofman and I think there was another that he did everything in his power to bring to Cleveland. He lucked out and Wickman returned. He also brought in Mota. I also think much of the reason he lost out on Howry was due to the salary, not that he was not interested in him. But given the money he threw at relievers this year, I imagine Shapiro regrets his course of action during the offseason prior to 2006.
Shapiro kept everyone he could to start the year, probably gnashed his teeth losing Guthrie in fact. But it's not the start of the year anymore.
The Guthrie point is a good one. Why is it he was willing to have Carmona/Sowers start the season in the big leagues and allow Guthrie to "walk"? Clearly a talent deficit existed and Shapiro is trying his best to put a winning product on the field. Similarly with Davis. With obviously superior arms "in waiting" why did he "wait" and put himself in a back against the wall situation? That is what I have been saying OVER and OVER and OVER again!
The fact is, Shapiro made a couple decisions this offseason. You mentioned a couple of them and earlier alluded to others, those including the movement of Guthrie and Brown. He didn't trade Guthrie and Brown simply because they were out of options, it was twofold. He knew that Guthrie was not the pitcher Sowers/Carmona are and that Brown is not the pitcher that Davis, Cabrera, Betancourt, etc are.
With all of that in mind, how is it after 5 seasons and 390 innings he could not decide that Davis was not an integral part of this team winning, yet after 5.3 seasons and 401 innings he could make this decision?
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Brandini, you have a real problem here. It's bad enough that you're saying I'm incorrect when factually, I'm entirely correct. But you also don't have to say it this way.
I said Shapiro reduced his reliever depth by two, and I explained how. The fact that he chased other free agent closers is irrelevant -- he attempted to replace Wickman with someone else, and ended up back with Wickman. This doesn't affect depth, only quality. The acquisition of Mota also didn't affect depth, because he gave up Karsay in that deal.
So I was, in fact, entirely correct. And you ought to take this moment to re-assess the resolute certainty with which you present your shakey observations. This is the Cora-blocked-Peralta episode all over again.
I'll respond to your other points later, after you've acknowledged that I was entirely correct about this one.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
We have no clue whether or not Shapiro was chasing Ryan AND Hoffman to be in the bullpen together or separately. Thus you can not conclude that Shapiro went into the offseason with the thought process that he would exit being negative two. He came out that way, but you are trying to get inside his head.
Also! Shapiro made offers to his exiting FA pitchers, are you trying to tell me that he did not want them?
The problem here is, you are looking at a result. It would be like saying that when a hitter swings and misses, its like he hit a home run, because thats what he was going for.
The fact is, Shapiro made offers to multiple relievers, he "failed" by his standards. Thus, you are "entirely incorrect" in stating that Shapiro INTENDED to take two relievers out of his bullpen, as he made offers to atleast 5...
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
No way he intended to sign Ryan and Hoffman, look at the dollars involved .. duh.
If he did make offers to 5 guys, it wasn't all at the same time. He offered money to Howry, he wanted more, he was allowed to walk.
He offered money to Ryan, he signed with Toronto. He then offered a contract to Hoffman, who almost signed, but didn't. Then he resigned Wickman.
He methodically went through his progressions. Jay already stated what happened, you continue to wear your blinders.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Did or did he not try to resign Howry? 1
Did or did he not try to sign Ryan and Hoffman? 2
Did or did he not sign Wickman? 1
That is a total of 4 offers that were OBVIOUS. Now none of us are in his head, so none of us know the true cause and effect that each rejection cost, but the FACT is, Shapiro DID NOT intend to lose 2 relievers from his bullpen.
I'm glad you are done.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
That's lovely.
You also are almost done with this discussion, one way or another.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Secondly, the truth of the matter is that Shapiro did want to resign Howry but they made some timing errors as they proceeded to contact him. The truth was they wanted to sign a higher profile closer first but when that feel through they turned to Howry but by that time the ink was drying on his contract with the Cubs. Mostly I am upset with that off season because we didn't have any proven 8th inning pitchers in the organization and basically treated Howry like a throw away piece which he was not.
by E5 on May 19, 2007 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Did these other organizations and publications pick the Tigers to win the WS last year? Let alone be at all competitive?
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
And for your next manufactured argument....
Rosario Report
A few times, I even sat behind a gun.
Rosario signed three years ago for $180,000. Not premier money, but a sizeable bonus for a 16-year-old Dominican. Basically, they considered him comparable to a 4th or 5th-round talent. His fastball touched 93 at times last year, but he usually sits in the 88-91 range. He has some room to grow, however. His curveball could potentially develop into a plus pitch, but it's really, really inconsistent at this point, and his tendency to hang it led to a lot of well-hit fly balls against DSL hitters it should have been dominating. His change was also pretty well advanced for a 17-year-old.
He's a pretty interesting talent. As an Ms fan, I'm not crying over losing him for someone who's already an adequate major league reliever, but I thought you'd be happy to know there's at least a small chance this deal will come back to hurt the Ms.
by jhelfgott @ Let's Go Tribe! on May 18, 2007 10:27 AM EDT reply actions
Re: Rosario Report
We'll never read anything elsewhere about the Tribe as timely or unexpectedly good as this. Thanks.
Thanks for the info. - greatly appreciated!
Nice to see you over here at LGT! :-)
Re: Rosario Report
Very helpful! $180,000 for a 16 year. How is that in the scheme of signings of youngsters that age, high, low, average? It sounds like a lot. I didn't know that teams were spreading around money like that. It adds up.
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Rosario Report
Before last year, there were generally about 8-12 6-figure signings per year. The 2006 offseason kind of blew the lid on the international market, though, so you'll probably see a lot more than that this year. I put together the most comprehensive list I've seen of last year's international bonuses over at my blog, if you're curious about the top end of the spectrum. It's linked on the blog's front page.
by jhelfgott @ Let's Go Tribe! on May 19, 2007 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
$0.03 - Put him in the decent prospect bin and check back in 2 years.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Please enlighten us on what type of player we should have received in return for JD.
- In December when we should have dealt him (according to you)
- In April, at the conclusion of the spring training with all the rosters set.
3. Just this week, when he was DFAed.
If you are so all knowlegdeable, you should be able to provide us with teams that would have taken JD and the player/prospect we received in return for all 3 scenarios.
I'll just say now, that I won't be holding my breath, waiting on a reply.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by woodsmeister on May 18, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
- Probably the same player we received now. Who knows, who cares! But isn't the job of the GM to put the best lineup on the field as he possibly can? Sure JD was out of options, but if the plan was to move him anyways...
- So the rosters are MORE set in April then they are in Mid May? Interesting! Had Davis went to a team that was desperate for pitching help, you've got a point, but he didn't! Thus the "roster set" notion is worth nothing.
- Quote me when I said the player the Indians got was bad? Please.
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
So if we trade JD in December for the same A ball player we got, how does that improve the squad now? Mujica over Davis at this point is negligible at best. We are talking about pitcher number 13 on the roster. Same as in April. Same as in now. Who cares when the deal was made if we get the same prospect.
As we and all the other teams knew, he was out of options. So we kept him through spring to see if he could finally turn that corner. I really don't see how any harm was done by keeping him until May 17, rather than fdoing it the offseason.
Look, I think Shapiro sits on prospects too long too, but I can't really see how this "non-offseason" move is a tragic flaw in Shapiro's abilities.
Almost every response you put on this site is "Oh you didn't read my response clearly enough", "That's not what I meant", blah blah blah.... Very rarely do you present alternative options in your arguments. You usually just flat out say, "This move stunk, we could have done better", or something to that effect, without making any RATIONAL proposal whatsoever.
You so remind me of the cynical posters on the ESPN boards. Maybe you'd find happier company in that forum. There are a lot of "Negative Nancys" there.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
MAJOR PROBLEM! I NEEEEEEEVER said that this was a "tragic flaw" or stated anything of Shapiro's ability altogether. I will save that for judgement at the end of the season after I see what the crop of FAs do.
What I did state is that it seems as if he made a mistake in the dealing with JD. I can not name a prospect that is better or that was available, because I do not know. I DO know that JD was available to everyone and Shapiro only recieved a PTBNL.
I also stated that even if this was the best Shapiro could do, he would have been more wise to do it in December or ST rather then in the middle of May where there is atleast a SLIVER of a chance that no one offers him a thing and he loses JD for nothing! That happens all the time!
As for not making a rational point, it would be IMPOSSIBLE to do so because I have no clue how JD was valued, how other prospects are valued OR if they are even available! I do know how a market works, and if a GM is up against the wall, chances are the value he will receive is slightly less.
Lastly, the Davis v. Mujica thing has no valid point. The point here, that you have missed about 100 times, is that Shapiro "misjudged" Davis. There is no way around that!
by Brandini on May 18, 2007 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
If you cannot provide a reasonable alternative to what has occurred, stop complaining.
But no matter, you'll never listen (see your arguments with many other posters: Jay, erik, and the rest). You are the only one defending this position. This is not a simple majority, but an overwhelming one.
Whatever, you obviously have an axe to grind with Shapiro on his every move. I guess I'll let you keep spouting your venom towards him. I just wish you'd do it on the ESPN board instead of here.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Jeremy Guthrie, B.Phillips and J. Davis
All these players are league average or above players we have basically given away. Mean while we have signed below league average bums like Byrd, J. Johnson, Borowski and Nixon for millions when we could have spent that money better on higher quality replacements.
He doesn't seem to manage his roster moves well enough to avoid these problems.
by E5 on May 19, 2007 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
All GM's find themselves in this situation. We lost Guthrie for the same reason we gained Mike Rouse. If the Indians have it more, it's mainly because the Indians the last few years have had a glut of high-minors talent, mostly B and C prospects. As a possible secondary cause, Shapiro may be too invested in certain players. He believed completely in BP's talent and in JD's work ethic, so he stuck with them two years after they probably should have "arrived" already.
Mean while we have signed below league average bums
Here you depart from common sense. If Guthrie was likely to perform like Byrd, he'd be in the rotation. If JD were likely to perform like Hernandez, we'd have kept him, too. BP, I'll give you that, as we've been over and over. But in general, the guys we have cast off have not been the equal of veterans we have acquired, you just have higher expectations for the veterans.
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by homelytourist on May 18, 2007 1:06 PM EDT reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on May 18, 2007 1:18 PM EDT reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Hope you're enjoying the delights the city has to offer...crazy squirrels and all. Interesting factoid to lighten the mood, the indigenous (sp?) red squirrel is being slowly killed out by the American grey squirrel you no doubt encountered.
And I hope the baseball vacuum that is England isn't too tough...thank God for the internet!
by Luis (Tribe Fan in London) on May 19, 2007 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Cricket is our summer sport and you're clearly in the flash part of town and it does tend to be more of a posh person's sport....the rules aren't too difficult to get your head round. Basically an innnings is over when all the team is out.
Did you watch the football? If so I apologise because it was a terrible excuse of a match! Chelsea is local to Kensington/Holland Park/Notting Hill so you should find a great atmosphere in the bars tonight!
If you want a baseball fix, watch Channel 5 at 1am tomorrow night
by Luis (Tribe Fan in London) on May 19, 2007 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on May 20, 2007 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by portlandtribefan on May 18, 2007 4:51 PM EDT reply actions
I too was amazed at the number!
I think my eyeballs popped when I seen the number - when I came inside the thread, I could see why there was that high number of posts. :-)
I think this was already mentioned (not absolutely sure though,) but I think the main reason why Davis was kept on the ML roster and Mujica was kept at AAA Buffalo to start the season is because -
It's easier to replace a struggling veteran on your roster with the talented AAA rookie or young player by letting the veteran go (via trade, DFA, etc.) and calling up the rookie/young player than it is to start the season with the rookie/young player and try to make a move to replace him if that rookie/young player falters because a veteran likely isn't going to go down to AAA if he doesn't make the ML roster (i.e. you'll lose him if he doesn't make the roster spot.) Then if the rookie/young player falters and you don't have the veteran anymore, you've got to go scrambling through the "leftovers" or make a likely expensive trade to try to come up with a suitable replacement for that rookie/young player, whereas if you had done it the other way around, it would be far less risky (and probably less costly prospect-wise) for the organization.
Therefore, the best choice for virtually every ML franchise (especially with ones with limited budgets like the Indians) is to start off with the veteran, see how he does, then if they feel a change needs to be, to release or trade him and call up the rookie/young player rather than trying to do it the other way around.
That's what the Indians did with Davis and Mujica, so really, I see no problem with how the Indians proceeded. I really don't think the Indians would have gotten anything more for Davis a few months ago, and probably would have gotten less, as I agree with Erik's thinking regarding Davis' value back in the offseason being less than it is now because more teams were in need of a reliever (which is what Davis really is - I don't think teams were really interested in him as a starter, since he hasn't started a game since 2005) now than they were in December or early April.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: I too was amazed at the number!
This is going to sound really lame, but I ran a word count, omiting all the headers and footers. 14,507 words of readable type. 5,328 (36%) from one source.
I did this because I was curious, not to prove a point.
by homelytourist on May 18, 2007 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: I too was amazed at the number!
Re: I too was amazed at the number!
Matt Anderson Info.! :-)
FYI - Anderson last pitched in 2005 with the Rockies:
12 G, 10.0 IP, 19 H, 17 R, 14 ER, 3 HR, 11 BB, 4 K, 12.60 ERA.
In 2006, he split time between Bridgeport in the Independent Atlantic League and Fresno, the Giants AAA PCL Affiliate:
Bridgeport:
15 G, 1-1, 15.1 IP, 12 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB, 17 K, 4.11 ERA
Fresno:
26 G, 1-2, 34.1 IP, 48 H, 36 R, 35 ER, 8 HR, 29 BB, 33 K, 3 WP, 9.17 ERA
Regarding 2007, I did not find him doing a name search of "Anderson" on MinorLeagueBaseball.com, so he's not playing in the Minor Leagues, and I'm pretty sure he's not playing in the MLs, so either he's playing in the Independent Leagues or he's not playing organized baseball at the age of 30 (will be 31 in August.)
As I mentioned in the post above, Rosario has a better chance of turning into something useful to great for us because he has much potential and projection left; Davis has no projection left, so he likely won't be any better than he is now. And being that we have much reliever depth in our system, it's really not a "loss" for us even if Rosario never pans out, but we won't know for several years whether he will or won't.
Essentially, it's a low-risk, high-reward deal for us, so I think it's a solid trade from our perspective. Hopefully, it works out favorably for us in the future.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by homelytourist on May 19, 2007 2:05 AM EDT reply actions
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
by woodsmeister on May 19, 2007 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
As one last M's fan
Re: As one last M's fan
by E5 on May 20, 2007 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: As one last M's fan
His claims and yours are exaggerated, bordering on entirely false. Folks here don't expect Shapiro to rip off another GM; rather, they expect Bavasi to let himself get ripped off.
The best deal he ever made was Hafner for Diaz, by the way.
Re: As one last M's fan
by Edgar for Pres on May 21, 2007 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: As one last M's fan
We did get something of value. The more extreme predictions were made in jest, the joke being that there's no known limit to Bavasi's stupidity.
The fact is that everyone know Davis isn't any good.
Davis has value. I'm sure the Mariners weren't the only team willing to give up something of value, however small it may seem to you, in your ignorance. But given our history, it only makes sense that if Bavasi wants a guy, we're going to give him to Bavasi.
And it worked out in the end cause the prospect you got will be about #1058 on your depth chart for pitchers.
The current depth chart isn't everything. I don't expect a Mariners fan to understand this.
We didn't trade you the new Grady.
That's what they all say, three years earlier.
We traded you some kid nobody has heard of or seen besides maybe a handful of local scouts.
That's just your ignorance talking. Obviously he is not well known outside the industry, but very few teenagers outside the U.S. are known outside the industry. Despite this "limitation," quite a few major leaguers were in fact teenagers outside the U.S. at one point in their lives. Victor Martinez comes to mind.
I just hope in the future you eyes won't light up quite as much when you try to pawn off some garbage on somebody else.
You can hardly blame Indians fans for this, who not only are merely reacting as any fan would to a potential acquisition, but who also have been conditioned to expect something-for-garbage from the Mariners. I've got news for you: Davis has almost as much value as Broussard in my book, and quite a bit more than Eduardo Perez had.
And we may eventually find that this kid Rosario has more value than Choo and Cabrera, for that matter. I don't know. But you don't know, either.
Now run along.
Re: As one last M's fan
by Edgar for Pres on May 21, 2007 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

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