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PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario

Just saw the news at indians.com. Rosario's an 18 year old pitcher from the Dominican Republic who has yet to play in the minor leagues.

According to the previously linked article

The 6-foot-4, 180-pound right-handed Rosario spent the last two seasons pitching for Seattle's Dominican Summer League team, where he went a combined 11-4 with a 3.01 ERA over 23 starts.

... and, of course, they don't know where we're going to put him.

Thoughts? Anyone?

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Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
yeah, everyone who saw that coming raise their hand.......... not all at once...... anyone?

by Brick. on May 17, 2007 8:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
From scout.com's Best Mariners in Latin America feature:

Rosario, who signed a contract in late 2004 just months after gaining the rights to negotiate - at an age where pitchers are typically raw in talent - the teen was tied for the league lead with a perfect 7-0 record. The unusual combination of youth and polish were part of what netted him the title of staff MVP, but he still has some distance to go.

It'll be interesting to see what Baseball America has to say about him.  Not much in the past.

by Jay on May 17, 2007 8:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Boy, as an Ms fan, I sure am sad to see Adam Jones go, no? Wladimir Balentien, no? Chris Tillman, no? Well who? Gregorio Resario? who? Yeah, exactly.

by MatthewLL on May 17, 2007 9:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
OK, I'll admit I missed it.  I figured Shapiro would take Bavasi to the cleaners.  But we've been abusing Seattle GMs since we go Omar for Felix Fermin(!).  Given Shapiro's track record this maybe the best trade of the year - or a big meh.  Stay tuned.
Sometimes you just gotta be gritty

by mauichuck on May 17, 2007 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
As an Ms fan, you should assume you've been burned again.  

by homelytourist on May 17, 2007 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
So you're taunting us because we got a low prospect for somebody that had nobody offered us anything, we would have paid to sit at home?

by Nat on May 17, 2007 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
This is an interesting counter angle to what everyone was calling "EBay"-esqe a week ago.

As I stated, it seems like Shapiro's back was against the wall and he had to take SOMETHING.  Whether this is a good or bad trade, none of us will know for almost another decade, so there really isn't any point in commenting...EXCEPT:

I just wish a team at the top of the division would have worked hard at improving its current situation.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I think moving Davis was our way of improving our bullpen.

by Roger Dorn on May 18, 2007 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Sometimes the best addition is by subtraction.
Unofficial Andy Marte and Joe Borowski Apologist. My fantasy team - Swindon SpecOps 27.

by woodsmeister on May 18, 2007 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
The Davis situation was unlikely to garner a player that could help us this year, nor provide an input of talent at the top of our minor league organization, which is glutted with outfielders and pitchers.  Shapiro's back wasn't against the wall.  He took a flyer on a high ceilinged guy at the lowest levels. It's a good move, a smart bet.  At the mid minor league levels we only could have gotten a roster-filler for Davis.

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
"The Davis situation was unlikely to garner a player that could help us this year, nor provide an input of talent at the top of our minor league organization, which is glutted with outfielders and pitchers.  Shapiro's back wasn't against the wall."

This is an entirely different tone then the one that was given a week ago.  It seemed as though posters here thought that there would be some form of "bidding war".  With that in mind, this scenario could not have been further from a "bidding war".

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
How do you know that it wasn't?  Where you there in the room with Shapiro when he was on the phone with other GM's?

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
You are correct to question me here...

The problem is, when people are "bidding" with nickles and dimes it can HARDLY be considered a "war".  Had the prospect come from a team in NEED of relief pitching OR been a higher level prospect OR been a prospect not from a franchise that is run by a man who is a "moron" then I may consider that there MIGHT have been a bidding war.  However, seeing as though the prospect came from Seattle and has never thrown a pitch in America, its safe to say Shapiro was not fending off offers for BA top 100 players!

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
You have posited a convenient non sequitur here.  At least two of your required criteria ("Had the prospect come from a team in NEED of relief pitching" OR "been a prospect not from a franchise that is run by a man who is a 'moron'"), and arguably the third, are completely irrelevant to the question of whether or not a "bidding war" did indeed occur.  An argument built upon conveniently defined, subjective premises cannot succed.  

(i.e, there is no reason that a "moron" cannot outbid his competition - in fact, that is often what happens in a "bidding war").  Thus, although it is indeed possible that you are correct, your argument still fails.

Bottom line is none of us know whether or not a bidding war occurred (although given Shapiro's track record, it is not unreasonable to presume that one did) - problem is, your analysis doesn't get to that question.  

by mplswahoo on May 18, 2007 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Shapiro's track record?  I'm sorry, when has he been in a "bidding war" and come out with something of importance?

And the reality is, those factors are important.

Consider this:
Team A is desperate for pitching help.
Team B is not desperate for pitching help.
Team C is in need of help, but could get by without it.
Team D loves stockpiling arms.

Whom would you assume would offer the best player?  Obviously A, followed by C, D and B.

However, in this instance, Team A did not get the pitcher and were either uninterested or did not offer "enough" - which in and of itself would be strange given their "desperation" and the fact that they are knowingly in a "bidding war".
Team B ends up with the pitcher and does not give up anything substantial for a ML pitcher.

Now tell me, HOW IS IT that team need has nothing to do with gauging whether or not there was in fact a "bidding war".  Continuing, how is it that a prospect that seems pretty low on the radar screen was the "winning bid" if infact there was a "war" ensuing?

So I will not deny that there were probably other offers.  I bet every team sent out atleast one offer.  But the fact that the player that got the job done was such a low level player and had come from a team not even CLOSE to being desperate, I think it is safe to say it was more of a picnic then a "war".

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 19, 2007 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Well, there was that time when he traded Colon for Grady and Lee.  Does that count?
Railing against the sacrifice bunt since 2000.

by jdudas on May 19, 2007 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'm pretty sure that that DiceK fellow never threw a pitch in the Western Hemisphere yet - but he seemed to draw some interest - not to mention money
Sometimes you just gotta be gritty

by mauichuck on May 18, 2007 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Correction: WBC
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
There was a bidding for him and Shapiro chose the best option among the ones provided. That's what bidding does.  We could have given him away for free. It's just price shopping.  You get a better price or conditions for the same item, you take it. Pretty simple.

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I just have a feeling there wasn't much "bidding" going on.  Given how "desperate" StLouis is made out to be and the problems other teams are having with their pens you've gotta think they would offer something of better value for a ML pitcher.

And when the team who acquires him has no bullpen issues to speak of, its tough to believe they were breaking the bank to get him.

Unless, this is a kid that Shapiro has had his eye on for quite some time.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Counterthoughts!
Hello Brandini,

No offense, but:

"I just have a feeling there wasn't much "bidding" going on.  Given how "desperate" StLouis is made out to be and the problems other teams are having with their pens you've gotta think they would offer something of better value for a ML pitcher."

Your feeling equates to trying to get inside the head of Shapiro and the negotiations, correct?  In other words, you don't know for sure - you're just guessing, correct?

"And when the team who acquires him has no bullpen issues to speak of, its tough to believe they were breaking the bank to get him."

Actually, that's not entirely true - Mateo was suspended by the Mariners because of the domestic incident where his wife allegedly had five stitches inserted into her mouth.  The Mariners demoted him to AAA and eventually put him on their AAA inactive list.  That's why there is a greivance by the Players' Union regarding Mateo - it will cost him sizable money from his salary if he remains there.

A AAA pitcher with less experience than Davis was brought up at first to replace Mateo, so saying that the Mariners didn't have bullpen issues isn't exactly accurate in my opinion.  That's the main reason they went after Davis in the first place - if they didn't have any bullpen issues to speak of, why would they bother going after Davis?  Is he that stellar and a "must-have" pitcher to even offer a prospect at all for him if they didn't have a need for him?  They obviously had to have a need for him or they likely wouldn't have offered ANYTHING for him - they would have either allowed someone else to trade for him (and it seems there were other teams interested in him, according to published reports) or they would have let him go on waivers and tried to pick him up there for nothing but his contract if they were able to.

Saying that the Mariners didn't have a bullpen need isn't accurate in my opinion.

"Unless, this is a kid that Shapiro has had his eye on for quite some time."

From what others have said in this thread, especially regarding the fact that the Indians tried to sign him 3 years ago, but were outbid, that seems like a reasonable possibility.  In any case, I think it's safe to assume that they had a lot more information on Rosario than was publicly known by us fans, which probably further convinced the Indians to take Seattle's offer for Davis.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on May 19, 2007 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Living in St. Louis and seeing them play now... I have no doubt they'd be interested. But take a look through their farm system... they have no one.  If they did, they'd be in the show already getting their shot.

A lot of the desperate teams simply don't have much to want either.

by tyler083 on May 19, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Mr. Shapiro, MatthewLL has never heard of Gregorio Resario.  You'd better get someone else.

by Brick. on May 17, 2007 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
wow. so snippy! jeez. personally, i expected someone in the low minors, who had a lot of upside, but of whom we probably hadn't heard a lot. just because a few people suggested it'd be a high-level major prospect doesn't mean you've gotta be a jerk to all of us.

this entire debacle is making me very, very tired of M's fans.

by AngG on May 17, 2007 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Ah, remember, they have to get up tomorrow and fear Bavasi's next move.  There's a part of me that feels bad for them.  But then I just start snickering.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 17, 2007 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'm just curious...

What in the last year has Bavasi done that was so terrible?  Everyone got on him about the Vidro trade, that seems to be working out.  He acquired Broussard and Perez for two prospects that were unlikely to make much of an impact for his team.  He signed Guillen to a reasonable contract, and that is working out alright.  Johjima, Ibanez.

I'm not saying he is without flaws, but the guy hasn't done a terrible job with his team and resources.  Certain players (Sexson and Beltre) ended up being overpaid, but both of whom were hot comodities - or so it seemed.  He's made a couple of so-so trades (specifically, Soriano and Guillen), however neither did not come without a reasonable explanation (injury concern).

Again, his track record is not as terrible as one makes it out to be.  Rarely has a prospect from the Ms organization went on to have immidiate and lasting success with another organization.  That isn't the barometer to measure a player by, however, it discards the notion that any player acquired from the Ms is going to be of quality.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
In what way is the Vidro deal working out?  They have a league average hitter being paid $12 million to be a DH.  The best you can say is that the two players they traded may not amount to much.  But Vidro at DH, with that contract, is absolutely worthless.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
So somewhere in your logic you are stating that the Ms would be better off with the player they traded over Vidro?  Is that based on actual numbers, or some random guess?  If Vidro was getting paid $100M I wouldn't care.  The fact is, he is outperforming the player he was traded for, and in the end, performance, not value is what wins games.
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'll agree in partial that performance is part of the equation, but value also a huge part of the equation.

You can pay someone $10M to fill a position and if he outperforms who was there before, that is good. But if it is only marginal, say +10 OPS+, wouldn't it have been better to spend that dough on two complimentary players to fill two roles (say RP and LF) for the same cost and the same +10 OPS+?

I think you'd have to agree yes. But you won't.

by talonk on May 18, 2007 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
No no, value is important, I agree with that.  However, if you are getting zero production from a player making the minimum that is not good value.

I agree that the Ms probably could have gotten better or equal player for the same or less money, however Vidro is quite flexible - something Piazza and Thomas are not.
Also, consider that the team does not have any REAL holes to fill and are not really cash strapped.

It is interesting that you bash Vidro at $10M but have no beef with Nixon, Dellucci and Borowski at their salaries.  Would the Indians not have been better served bringing in an Eric Gagne and filling the other holes from within?

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Given Vidro's basically average performance, yes, they'd be better off with the players they traded AND $12 million that could be used to get some non-Jeff Weaver pitching or a whole lot of candy bars or something more useful than an overpaid mediocre DH.

by zempf on May 18, 2007 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Why don't you just come over to my office, we can write these together.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
in the end, performance, not value is what wins games

Oh, I agree -- but you apply the opposite standard when it comes to Indians trades.  Of course the M's would be better off with the two prosepcts -- trading them for something more valuable -- and the $12 million -- spending it on something more valuable.

A player of equivalent value could have been acquired for far less.  A guy like Julio Franco or Jack Cust, for example.  I am amazed, after the 10,000 words on Byrd-vs.-Castillo, that this isn't obvious to you.  But I guess everyone but Shapiro gets the huge rationalized free pass from you.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Interesting...
Vidro although flexible and "league average" is not worth $12M in your opinion YET Byrd is worth his $8M and well below "league average".

Shapiro gets plenty of passes from me!  Although I'm sure he doesn't care.  The thing that you miss out on, is how many poor signings Shapiro does.  Your excuse, "Well atleast he didn't break the bank".  And you are right, he didn't, but MAYBE he would be better off doing such in order to get players that are "league average", rather then signing cheap duds!

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
You're confusint the Indians with the Yankees.  If you are operating on a budget - like every other team in baseball - then what you pay for production is critical.
Sometimes you just gotta be gritty

by mauichuck on May 18, 2007 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
You are right that it is critical.  But if you are getting nothing out of a league minimum player, then that is still nothing.  So if it costs $10M to get league average, sometimes you've gotta spend it.
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rosario has a much better chance of being
something useful to great because he has a lot of projection left, something Davis no longer has, so it was still a good trade for the Indians, regardless of how well Davis does or how well Rosario turns out - Rosario is much better than losing Davis on waivers.  Davis, at best, will probably be serviceable with flashes of good to great performance, but being that he's now 27-YO, he no longer has any projection and likely won't be better than what he is now, which is probably serviceable at best.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on May 17, 2007 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'm calling this one a draw, between homelytourist and sbricker, for best response.  Well done, gents.

(Andrew, where's my gavel?)

by Jay on May 18, 2007 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Thanks Jay,

So do you think this was one of those 'scout X fell in love with this guy and told the FO to get him if they ever had a chance' or simply a 'look at the list of guys you can pick from and pick the one that you like the best'?

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Not sure, but I do think it's a case where the Indians (and other teams) have a lot of data on the guy, even though we don't.  We have very little information on Latin American players compared with the extensive scouting of high school and college players in the U.S.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I think it's case A, at least to a mild degree.  This morning's PD reports that the Indians tried to sign him 3 years ago but were outbid.  I'm assuming when the FO saw his name on the list, they agreed that not only did they still like what they liked about him 3 years ago, but that he has since put up good numbers.  He may or may not ever become a prospect, but I assume it was an easy choice.

by nickjs21 on May 18, 2007 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
He is already a prospect.  The DSL is a real organized league.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Agreed.  

Oh, and I found that link I spoke of below.  Here.  Indians/Mets treat their Dominican signees well.

by nickjs21 on May 18, 2007 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario

This is a picture I took of me giving Jay his new gavel.

by afh4 on May 18, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
That picture really doesn't do Jay justice.  He doesn't dye the hair anymore.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 18, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Oh and MatthewLL (I'm assuming you're the non Cool LL), when guys like Jones names were being thrown around last week, it wasn't serious at all. We knew JD would never glean us a #1 or #2 rated prospect. It was more of joking around.

But hey, since your team only likes to joke around in the dugout after a game gets snowed out (which now in the long run, hurts your team by having to make 3 more trips to Cleveland), I could understand your confusion.

by talonk on May 18, 2007 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'm surprised.  I really thought that we would've gotten something a little more substantial.  At least I have the satisfaction of knowing that our GM usually comes out ahead.  I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a steal in a few years.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 17, 2007 9:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Yeah. when i saw it was someone at such a low level, i assumed that shapiro decided to go for talent over major-league readiness and that this kid might end up amounting to something. but i admit i always give shapiro the benefit of the doubt and assume he knows what he's doing. (note: this is because he generally seems to.)

by AngG on May 17, 2007 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
"assume he knows what he's doing"

Exactly, see sbricker's reply to the M's fan above.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 17, 2007 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
6'4" 180 lb. Dominican?  Sounds a bit like the kid who just threw the complete game shutout.  How much did Fausto weigh when we signed him?  

by cheech99 on May 17, 2007 9:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
first order of business: rush the kid to the orthodontist.

by nctribefan on May 18, 2007 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Rumor has it he's got teeth like a horse...why do you think the FO was so high on him in the first place?

by APV on May 18, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Here's some more info from  a site monitoring Seattle prospects.

It mentions:

Rosario is the most projectable pitcher in this group at 6-4, 185 and just 18 years of age. He made 13 starts in the DSL a year ago and piled up 68 1/3 innings allowing 67 hits (2 HR), striking out 62 and issuing 25 walks.


by haymister on May 17, 2007 9:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Let's see it this way: here is our 2nd, 3rd or 4th round draft pick for 2007 (CLE doesn't have a pick in those rounds, if I'm correct) already signed on the cheap in exchange for JD.
I'll take that. As Shapiro claimed, some of his previous deals were about artificially augmenting the draft. voila.

by DocNo on May 17, 2007 10:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
This is the kind of guy I expected Cleveland to get.  I thought low-A more likely...but a young guy thought to have a potentially high ceiling is what I thought they'd spin JD off for.  We don't have a lot of obvious holes/needs or even spots at the AA and AAA level.  When you factor in what we have in Cleveland, we have even less need at those levels.  The one thing you always have a need for are guys who are special enough to make a definite impact.  Is this guy one of those?  Probably not.  Probably less than a 1/20 chance he is.  But he has some chance, which is more than what we can say about a scrub AAAA pitcher or some other organizational filler.

by APV on May 17, 2007 10:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Frankly, I thought putting JD the DFA list was a stroke of genius.  It said, "let the bidding begin" and I hoped it would lead to some team in disperate need of pitching to over reach for JD.  When I heard it was the Mariners I figured that they were a good candidate to do the over reaching, given their recent track record.  Looks like I was wrong.  But then again the Indians front office has upgraded their Latin American scouting and this kid might - might be a sleeper.  I trust Shapiro to act like Shapiro and Bavasi to act like Bavasi.
Sometimes you just gotta be gritty

by mauichuck on May 17, 2007 11:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
It's tough to have an opinion on a guy at his age and level; I hope/assume our scouts are on to something.  

On one hand, we got someone for a "AAAA" roster burden who has exhausted his projectability.

On the other hand, we gave up a Major Leaguer (of sorts) for a guy whose chances are remote and is years away even with consistent progress.

This Rosario guy could be a homerun.  That's exciting, I guess.  

by homelytourist on May 18, 2007 12:10 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I like it, with the obvious proviso that I've never heard of this kid and assume that the scouts have been all over it. The reason I like it is because it hopefully reflects a change in the player aquisition strategy, which for many years has pretty much (with some exceptions) concentrated on safe bets. As safe as possible in the overall crap shoot.

And it's worked - the farm system is filled with guys who deserve a shot to advance, even if there aren't many whose performance demands it.

Shap's only comment prior to this was that they had their eye on a guy with "huge upside". I guess this is the guy - raw and unproven but with a lot of potential. I hope we approach the draft next month the same way and stock up on young high ceiling talent. We can now afford to do so.

by mcrose on May 18, 2007 12:13 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Shapiro and his lieutenants have extended their contracts so they now have a stronger interest in the out years.

by palcal on May 18, 2007 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I just read a great article on the Indians and how well we run our development of Latin players.  I'll have to find the link.  Having already read that, this signing encourages me.

by nickjs21 on May 18, 2007 2:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
"Signing" ... Sorry, all my new player vocabulary is still rusty from winter.  Trade.  This trade encourages me.

by nickjs21 on May 18, 2007 2:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Bavasi: Ya, see. I've learned.  I took a deserved beating for my deals in the past few years. Why was I so obvious to deal guys from AAA level, guys on everyone's top lists?  I should have known better, been more stealthy.  I won't make that mistake again.  So I've decided to make all new mistakes.  A new me.  You stat heads won't detect these as easy.  I'm gong to plant minefields for the next GM by giving away all the high ceilinged guys in the lower levels before they get on those prospect lists.  Then no one will notice the slow dull tranformation to mediocrity, except in the barren farm system and in the win-loss column.  By then I'll be retired sipping lattes in the morning at one of our fine coffee shops here in Seattle...if anyone will serve me a coffee anymore or even allow me within the city limits.

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 4:54 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Could you list off the AAA players that were on the top of everyones list that Bavasi has traded away?

Furthermore, could you list off those players that went on to have even a slight amount of success and how it in turn hurt the Ms?

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
You've really missed the point. By mismanaging and underutilizing his assets he's not maximizing the ability to succeed both in the short and long term.  So what if those AAA guys haven't produced yet.  He could have gotten MORE from those assets when he traded them.

Specifically, Bavasi has acquired poorly (Beltre, Sexson, Guardado, Vidro, Weaver), managed his assetts poorly (didn't maximize value), and traded poorly (Soriano, Choo, Cabbie),  He got Johjima because of his Nintendo owner's Japanese influence, not his genius.  He both spent a lot and got little production.  He and Isiah Thomas must be sharing GM secrets. His family's baseball pedigree has probably saved him, but he's managed to use up its goodwill in 3 years, no mean feat.

Above all, the Mariner's won-loss record is a disaster the past three years. And although they are 20-20 this year, they have scored 18 runs fewer than they've given up.  Not a good portent.  Sure, maybe they compete anyway this year.  But the odds are they will fall back as the odds catch up with them.

He's also going to lose Ichiro after the season. The guy is tired of losing and is already speaking of the Mariners in the past tense in Japanese newspapers. Ichiro is not as money focused as others.  He wants his career to be capped by playing on winning teams, not an organization that is squandering its money and its assets. If Seattle doesn't make a suprise move deep into the playoffs, he's gone.

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
First, Beltre, Sexson and Guardado were all about market value players.  Had he not signed them, the players would have went for slightly less money to another franchise.  They were all "star" FA's at one point or another.  While he overpaid for them, this happens on an annual basis in the majors.  Certain teams have a strong enough core to bounce back from a bad signing, or enough money.  Other teams really get hurt from them.
Second, who said he managed his assets poorly with Soriano, Choo and Astro?  Soriano, maybe, but a starter is clearly more valuable then a reliever and Soriano had some serious injury concerns - there were reports of him not being able to hit 90 during his winter league.  Choo, lets wait and see on that one, hes obviously not currently better then Nixon, who is the type of player that is available annually.  Astro, this is yet to be seen.  He did not have a spot upcoming for the Mariners given their strong MI core, and again, will need to prove himself.  If he goes on to do nothing at the ML level, acquiring a ML player even for half of a season was worth it.

He has done a poor job acquiring starting pitching.  There is no denying that.  He has also made mistakes that are made league-wide.  He will lose Ichiro, but the continual bashing of him does not make sense.  In my opinion, hes probably about average.  If Choo, Soriano, Astro, etc go on to having productive ML careers, then those can go down as mistakes and will make his resume look much worse.  But for now, you can't grade him on those happenings.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'm trying to understand this.  He's made five major bad signings, three for big money, and yet, it happens all the time and he can't be blamed??  Step back for a second.  If Shapiro made signings like that that didn't pan out we would be apoplectic.  Aaron Boone was our "disaster" and he only cost a few million a year.  The fact is that every time a team makes a bad move there is both a cost (of the player) and an opportunity cost (player you didn't sign, money you didn't allocate more efficiently somewhere else, talent you have to move off/on the roster, etc). That's why all these individual moves, although seemingly small and innocuous, can have significant impact themselves, or down the line.

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I would strongly disagree with you on the M's.  I think as the season progresses you will see them play much better and you have to factor in that they were missing their Ace for some time so the runs scored vs runs given up is already off.  They play terrific defense and have many professional hitters who are getting off to poor starts.  Richie Sexson and Beltre are second half hitter and now they added J.D their bullpen is looking somewhat stronger.
Winners practice like Champions, losers go through the motions.

by E5 on May 19, 2007 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I guess we won't know til later as the season progresses, but Oakland has had far, far more injuries, and LA's superior pitching will likely prove itself out over the season.  Their run differentials are better (LA 195-163), Oakland 190-149). And they are both still ahead in the standings.  Seattle will likely get worse rather than better, at least relative to their divisional competition.

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
My issue with this trade is that essentially the Indians got worse without adding a prospect that can even really be projected at this point.  The reason why I suggest the team got worse is because we have to assume that Davis "beat out" the player who has replaced him on the 25 man.  While it is possible that Mujica was held out of the bullpen for a reason not directly related to Davis beating him, it is interesting that he was called up a month and a half into the season - obviously the "flaws" were not so big.

The arguement can be made that Davis won the job due to contractual obligations, but then is the GM admitting that he placed a lesser player on the 25 man roster just because he is signed?  That is a scary thought!
Or another arguement can be made that the reason Davis was on the roster was because they needed to "see what they had", but again, what did they see in 11 innings this year, that they had not seen in 390 previous innings over 5 seasons?

This trade really makes no difference in the big picture.  It is unlikely either player developes into a star - although, given Bavasi and Shapiro's "record" is it not safe to assume this kid is a dud and Davis will become a stud?  However, I have a tough time swallowing the pill that reads, "I did not put my best 25 man roster on the field for opening day."

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 9:43 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
options, roster spots, service time, etc. are part of the game, and simply can't be ignored.  those all have an outcome on team decisions.  another part of running a team, especially for a team like the indians, is developing all levels of the team - from 18 year old porjects to the major league utility infielder.  using a player not useful in the present to potentially help the team in the future was absolutely the right thing to do here, as there are few glaring holes on the ml team right now, as i'm sure there was noone out there willing to hand over their shut-down closer for davis.

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I entirely understand, MY POINT, as I stated last week, is why did this move happen now, and not in December?  Obviously we do not know if Shapiro tried to make a move back then, but seeing as how Davis did not pass through waivers, I would say he probably didn't.

That said, Shapiro made a decision THEN to not move Davis and thus decided to start the season with a "worse" performer - if in fact he feels Mujica is a superior pitcher, which, he obviously does.

As I stated, the value is not my real issue, rather, the method.  Shapiro's back was against the wall in this situation as he gave himself absolutely ZERO leverage in negotiations - other then, "Look, this team is willing to toss in the rights to Bonds' record tying HR".

So I understand certain factors, I just don't feel as though Shapiro dealt with Davis in a very intelligent manner.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
"Shapiro's back was against the wall in this situation."

I'm reposting this from another thread because I'm not sure if you saw this when I originally posted.  The thread was dying by the time I got in on it.  I still do not agree that Shapiro's back was against the wall.  My justification is outlined below.  While it may not have worked out the way that I believed it might, I still feel like he had a stronger position to negotiate from now than he would've had in spring training.  My original post is below.

This is how I see it.  If you consider this from an opposing FO's perspective, I'm not so sure that some of the teams that may bid for JD's services would have offered more in offseason, or would have had any interest at all.  

Early in the offseason there are still a fair number of free-agents available that an opposing FO could target.  So they might have been interested in JD, but probably not to the point of making a great offer for him, not when there are lots of options available.  Late in the offseason and into spring training, they should have a pretty good notion of who they plan to start the season with.  Even if they aren't overjoyed with who they have, their 25 and 40 man rosters are getting set and at the very least, most are going to decide to give what they have a chance to succeed or fail.  Again, not a seller's market for us re: JD.  Now that the season has started, you have to consider injuries.  Generally there aren't very many situations where a FO has advanced knowledge of an injury to someone on their starting staff or their relief corps.  

So how does this put the Tribe in a better position (as a seller) than a team like St. Louis (as a buyer)?  They certainly would never have expected to have lost Carpenter and Hancock.  Those are two guys that they were certain would be on their roster.  During the offseason, if you project having those guys, maybe you're not interested in trading for guy like Jason Davis.  During spring training, their staff is still doing okay, no big injuries, no one vastly underperforming.  So they set their roster and start the season.  Then Carpenter gets hurt and Hancock drives into a cement truck.  So St. Louis finds themselves in the position of actually needing to pick up some pitching when they never would've projected such a need in the off season.  Free agents are long gone (excepting Clemens and even he's gone now).  So if they don't have 2 ML ready arms in their minor league system, they are now forced to make a trade.  

I see St. Louis' back against the wall.  

Not ours.  

Not when we have a pitcher that St. Louis may perceive as an absolute need at this point.  If St. Louis was the only team in need of pitching, then I would agree that they could just sit tight and wait, claim him off waivers and we would get nothing for a pitcher who has repeatedly underperformed for us over several years.  But the premium to make a good or even mildly great offer gets driven up based on the number of teams that have gaps in their pitching staff.  And the last time I checked, there were certainly more than a handful of teams in that category, including the Yankees, who are capable of single-handedly driving up a premium.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 18, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
The problem with your counter-theory is that the team that traded for Davis has essentially the same bullpen they started with on opening day.  They have not suffered any injuries since that point and have actually had better-then-expected numbers from pretty much their entire pen.  That said, the "best offer" - assuming a divisional rival would have to offer a vastly superior player then the one recieved for the trade to make sense - was a PTBNL, not really anything of exception value.

Again, not a seller's market for us re: JD.  Now that the season has started, you have to consider injuries.

This comment holds little water considering the Phillips move of 2006.  A 2B struggling to find himself as a hitter is much less valuable league-wide then a pitcher who has had moderate success as both a starter and a reliever.  The same teams that were "bidding" for Davis this last week, will essentially be the same ones bidding on him in April 1st.  There may be some odd exceptions with injuries and such, but this is contrary to how things unfolded given the team that traded for him has almost perfect health - thus your St.Louis comment is void.
Also, consider any team trading for Davis is trading for him as a reliever, not a starter.  Had a trade occurred between December and April, the team would have ST to stretch him out/see what hes got as a starter AND the month of April.  Whereas right now, Davis has been on a reliever throwing program for the last 3 months and is very unlikely to be stretched out for the 2007 season.  Thus, his value is solely as a reliever, which does not have the market value of a starter.

So again, you have a flawed arguement, simply by what occurred.  Whether there was a "bidding war" or not, we do not know right now.  Given that the prospect sent was a PTBNL and one that has never thrown a pitch in the minors - coupled with VERY limited information about him - I will suggest there was not much of a "war" if any at all.  Probably only a handfull of serious offers.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
"The problem with your counter-theory is that the team that traded for Davis has essentially the same bullpen they started with on opening day."

I can't argue with that.  Like I admitted, this didn't come out exactly the way that I suggested.

"This comment holds little water considering the Phillips move of 2006.  A 2B struggling to find himself as a hitter is much less valuable league-wide then a pitcher who has had moderate success as both a starter and a reliever."

I think your example is the one that fails here.  The timing of these two moves is so radically different that you're trying to compare apples and bicycles.  And I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on the level of interest that certain teams would have shown on April 1st vs. mid-May.  I still see no reason why St. Louis or the Yankees would've remotely been interested on April 1st.  But I can clearly see reasons for why they might have kicked the tires on a deal in mid-May.

"Also, consider any team trading for Davis is trading for him as a reliever, not a starter.  Had a trade occurred between December and April, the team would have ST to stretch him out/see what hes get as a starter AND the month of April."

I struggle to believe that many teams would have ever viewed JD as an answer as a starting pitcher, not with a ML track record that pointed to a lack of aptitude for that role.  They may have chosen to stretch him and tried him in the role.  I don't know.  But I doubt that a club would target JD for that when there were plenty of other free agent arms available on the market during the same time frame.

"Given that the prospect sent was a PTBNL and one that has never thrown a pitch in the minors - coupled with VERY limited information about him - I will suggest there was not much of a "war" if any at all."

Given that Shapiro is more experienced and knowledgeable about running a baseball team than I am, I'll grant him a pass on this deal.  Also, I would caution you on your presumption that there is VERY limited information available about this prospect.  I would wager that Shapiro has a lot more information available to him than we do.  Particularly if they did in fact attempt to sign him 3 years ago and got outbid, as is suggested elsewhere in the thread.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 18, 2007 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
The timing of these two moves is so radically different that you're trying to compare apples and bicycles.

I was referring to moving Davis before the season started.  The movement all along has been people arguing that Davis has more value today, then he did on April 1st.  This is a tough concept for me to comprehend given what occured with Phillips in 2006.

As for the Yanks and Cards, you can never have too much pitching.  The Yanks were breaking down in ST and the Cards had some questionable arms in their bullpen.  However, given that a trade today for Davis would result in a month or more of stretching him out, do you really think he has that much value to the Cards or Yanks?  I can agree that Byrd has more value today then he did in ST - performance aside - however a team having to spend a month or more stretching out a pitcher probably would prefer to avoid the headache and fix within.

As for the final comment, I imagine you are correct.  I also imagine that given how quickly Shapiro named the player to be named, he had his eye on the kid and just wanted a little more information.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I still don't like how we called up Grady Sizemore, because Juan Gonzalez had "beat him out."  When will people realize that what you do at the end of spring is EXACTLY how the rest of your season projects?  

by nickjs21 on May 18, 2007 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Maybe Shapiro/Wedge saw that Grady was clueless against lefties and wanted to give him some swings against lesser lefties.  How incredible of a hitter would Grady be if Juan Gone did not get injured and Grady possibly learned how to be even mediocre against lefties?

Also, you are talking two entirely different scenarios:

  • Grady entered 2005 with 138 unspectacular ML at bats, coupled with a good - nearly great for his age - minor league resume.
  • Mujica on the other hand had a solid stint with the Tribe last season, coupled with excellent minor league reliever numbers.
  • Grady was "held back" by a future HOFer.
  • Mujica was "held back" by a player that was essentially released.

It is not a big deal, as I imagine the player the team could have grabbed in December would not be much more projectable then the player they received yesterday.  It just seems to me as if Shapiro did not put out his best 25 on opening day.
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
SO nice to hear from you again Negative Nancy ...

Anyways, as has been discussed before, ad nauseum, JD made the final 25 mainly based on his contract status. I think you agree on that point based on above.

So then you fault Shapiro for not dealing him at the end of spring training. At the end of spring training, almost every team has their 25+ guys. To  try and trade JD would more than likely have netted us nothing, we would probably have had to release him, and he ends up in KC.

But since he was still serviceable, we kept him. Waited a month into the season, while all the other teams started to have injury problems. DFAing him at this point caused teams to finally decide if they were willing to give up something for him. JD still has talent, he just overstayed his welcome here. I'm betting if we had dealt him to Seattle at the end of spring training, we could not have gotten anything like this kid for him. And this kid could turn out to be nothing too. But lay off Shapiro please, he's done a very good job overall.

I hope we keep winning, so your posts become more and more infrequent.

by talonk on May 18, 2007 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Anyways, as has been discussed before, ad nauseum, JD made the final 25 mainly based on his contract status. I think you agree on that point based on above.

I suggested that as a possible reason.  I don't think we will ever really know.  Given that Davis was traded for a PTBNL in the middle of May, it seems as if he could have been traded for a PTBNL on April 1st - or in Spring Training for that matter.

So then you fault Shapiro for not dealing him at the end of spring training. At the end of spring training, almost every team has their 25+ guys. To  try and trade JD would more than likely have netted us nothing, we would probably have had to release him, and he ends up in KC.

Obviously ignoring the fact that the Indians traded Phillips for a PTBNL at the end of spring last year.  Whether he traded Davis in December or April really has no barring.  Given that most were certain this move by Shapiro would create a "bidding war" I think it is obvious that Davis would not have gotten "released" at the end of spring training.
I also imagine teams would have given more had they had all spring to work with him and possibly stretch him out as a starter.  Don't tell me that all 29 major league teams had their rotation set in stone a the beginning of ST, let alone on April 1st!

Waited a month into the season, while all the other teams started to have injury problems.

Injury problems?  Is that why the team that traded for him has an intact bullpen with zero injuries since opening day?
Again, if Shapiro was hoping to increase Davis' value by shopping him to teams looking for a healthy arm, he made a larger mistake then I gave him credit for!

I hope we keep winning, so your posts become more and more infrequent.

Thanks, possibly check out the last diary I posted and see if that topic has anything to do with it.  Also note, my lack of posts have not been due to the Tribe doing well, infact, almost every player I expected to fail - Shapiro signings - has in fact failed!  And miserably!  So if performance was a reason for me not posting, would I not be in my glory moment given how terrible all of those players have performed?  In fact, only ONE of Shapiro's offseason moves has had any success.  And that was the player most agreed was the biggest shot in the dark.

As I mentioned, this was not a TERRIBLE trade.  It might end up being an excellent one.  I just do not understand why it was not made on opening day or prior to then.  The object is to win and put the best players on the field.  Shapiro/Wedge obviously failed to do so for Opening Day.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
YOU ARE THE GREATEST PROGNOSTICATOR IN THE WORLD.

BRANDINI4INDIANSGMIN2008.COM

by afh4 on May 18, 2007 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Wow!  Do you actually read what I write?  

I stated numerous occassions that this trade was not a bad one, I actually like it!  I just personally do not understand the method/timing.  Similar to me not understanding signing Nixon.  Similar to me not understanding sending Garko to triple A in favor of Perez/Broussard.

But as a fan of the team, am I not allowed to question the moves made by the team?  Do you not watch games and make comments when a player makes an errant throw or a poor base running decision?

I agree that often I am critical of Shapiro, but that is because I expect to see this team challenging for a championship this season, and, lets be honest, he has not made moves to go in that direction.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
OMG DO YOU NOT WANT ME TO START THE WEBSITE THEN?

I ALREADY BOUGHT THE DOMAIN.

by afh4 on May 18, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
How can you not call what this team is doing right now challenging for the championship?
Unofficial Andy Marte and Joe Borowski Apologist. My fantasy team - Swindon SpecOps 27.

by woodsmeister on May 18, 2007 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'm talking about the moves made.

Borowski is the answer at closer?
Hernandez as a set up man?
Nixon the RF answer?
Barfield the answer?

Again, there was not one move made this offseason that could point to a drastic improvement for this team.  Not like Sheffield going to the Tigers or something to that extent.  I understand the economic restraints, but lets not fool ourselves into thinking the offseason moves were good enough to push this team over the top.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Borowski is the answer at closer?
 - He was meant to be half an answer (Foulke)
Hernandez as a set up man?
 - Again, part of an answer (Betancourt)
Nixon the RF answer?
 - Again, part of an answer (Blake)
Barfield the answer?
 - Yes

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Barfield is the answer?
Loretta, Giles and Vidro are all having superior statistical seasons then Barfield.  Superior is actually an understatement!  Will this continue?  Who knows.

Nixon is part of the answer?
How come Choo could not have been "part" of the answer?  Again, IMO wasted money.

Hernandez is part of the answer?
Hernandez has pitched himself OUT of the setup role.  I do not think that you could suggest the Indians had any intentions of an 8th inning of Hernandez/Betancourt.  Prior to Hernandez sucking, he was the guy who was getting the ball in the 8th, with Betancourt taking the ball in the 7th.

Borowski is the only one who gets a pass.  Although wouldn't the team look better with Choo+Gagne then Borowski+Foulke+Nixon?  Probably.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
what does the inside of the vacuum you live in look like?

Loretta, Giles and Vidro

- Um, Age, Dollars, Ceiling, Years under control.

How come Choo could not have been "part" of the answer?

-He COULD have been.  Nixon was a surer bet.

I do not think that you could suggest the Indians had any intentions of an 8th inning of Hernandez/Betancourt.

-I didn't, the Indians did:

By Sheldon Ocker | Mar 26, 2007 |

Not much has been said about the Indians' setup situation.

Manager Eric Wedge confirmed again Sunday that Rafael Betancourt and Roberto Hernandez probably will get the first crack at the job. However, Wedge qualified his endorsement of the two relievers to this extent.

"It doesn't need to be just one guy," Wedge said. "I look at (Aaron) Fultz and (Matt) Miller as guys who can pitch in that inning, too, depending on the lineup and other things."

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'll examine games in which there was a 3 run lead save:

Game 002 - 8th inning Hernandez, 7th inning Betancourt
Game 004e - 8th inning Hernandez, Betancourt cleaned up the mess

If you look throughout the scheduel, Betancourt did not have an 8th inning hold until quite far into the month of April.  Hernandez had come in for the 8th inning on multiple ocassions duruing a tie game.
Although Wegde may have "said" that he does not have "one guy", he was clearly treating it like that.

"Loretta, Giles and Vidro

- Um, Age, Dollars, Ceiling, Years under control."

We were talking answer, not dollars and cents.  And given the Nixon, Dellucci, Borowski signings, spending $2.5M on Loretta and getting something of worth, would have been money well spent.

"-He COULD have been.  Nixon was a surer bet."

Surer bet?  What was Nixon a lock for?  I haven't read or seen anything that would suggest that Nixon was a better bet then Choo this season.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
what the hell are you even talking about anymore?  this has become entirely unintelligible.

by Brick. on May 19, 2007 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Borowski was the best answer we could afford.

Hernandez was the best set-up man we could afford to supplement what we had.

Nixon was already a quality major leaguer while there were doubts about the potential performance of Choo and Gutierrez.  If you want to win now, you go with the quality veteran.  If he comes cheap, even better.

Barfield is most definitely the answer.

Unofficial Andy Marte and Joe Borowski Apologist. My fantasy team - Swindon SpecOps 27.

by woodsmeister on May 18, 2007 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
gain, there was not one move made this offseason that could point to a drastic improvement for this team.  Not like Sheffield going to the Tigers or something to that extent.

What's so great about there being one move that makes an impact?  What's wrong with five moves that have a cumulative impact?

The economics:  The Tigers will pay Sheffield $41 million and gave up two decent prospects as well.  There is a good chance he will hit like a league-average corner OF for those three seasons.  That's what he's been this season so far -- and also last season -- 110 OPS+.  Even regardless of the economics, I don't see the charm.

As it happens, the Indians will pay something very close to $41 million for:

  • Five years of Barfield
  • Three years of Dellucci
  • One year of Borowski + 2nd year option
  • One year of Hernandez + 2nd year option
  • One year of Fultz + 2nd year option
  • One year of Nixon

Forget the money -- which is equivalent -- and the prospects surrendered -- which are also about equivalent.  There is no question that the Indians improved more by these six moves than the Tigers did by acquiring Sheffield.  They improved more for 2007, dramatically, and even far more still for 2008-2012.

By the way, props for picking Fultz as the surprise hit among our new acquisitions.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Dave Stewart, former A's pitcher, in his bizarre blog that he writes for some tv station or something (which I don't have the link to handy) said that if Borowski faltered the Indians were fine because dominant setup man Aaron Fultz could step in.

Sigh. Go, mainstream media, go.

by afh4 on May 18, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
HA!
So Sheffield is "league average", could you explain to me what that makes Dellucci, Nixon, Barfield?!?  By your "logic", that threesome is equal to a single A player!

110OPS+  I guess a broken wrist means nothing, right?

Continuing...

  • Borowski is an improvement to what the team already had?  Please rationalize that with statistics.
  • Hernandez is an improvement over what the team already had?  Please rationalize that with statistics.
  • Nixon is an improvement over what the team already had?  Please rationalize that with statistics.
  • Dellucci is an improvement over what the team already had?  Please rationalize that with statistics.
  • Barfield is an improvement over what the team already had/could have had?  Please rationalize that with statistics.

The fact is, that TO THIS POINT, the 6 moves that Shapiro made have actually HURT this team for 2007.  Will that remain?  Who knows!  Barfield is only playing marginally worse then I expected him to.  Dellucci has never hit in a pitchers park.  Nixon has been on the decline for years.  Hernandez is throwing like he did the last time he was in the AL and Borowski has been just awful.
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
So let's get this straight, Shapiro signed crap on the cheap and their currently leading in the standings.  And this makes Shapiro look dumb how?

by JK in CBus on May 18, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Because imagine if he made some good moves!!!  Instead of being 1 game ahead, they might be 5 or 6 or 7.  Instead of getting nothing out of Barfield, Dellucci, etc he may have gotten something out of the alternates.

You are missing the point though.  This is an enclosed case of what I feel is mismanagement.  How you can rationalize it was a good move, to me, is ridiculous.  Just for a second, ignore the players names.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
So you honestly believe with your proposal, that the Tribe record would be 29-9? Wow, that's a .763 clip. Am sure that has probably only happened once or twice the last 100+ years - Detroit in 84 comes to mind at 35-5.

That's too funny.

by talonk on May 18, 2007 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
In a response above you sound awefully apologetic for Bravasi.  Yet silly little PTBNL moves like this doesn't stop you from railing against Shapiro endlessly.  I'm just questioning whether your really a fan or an instigator.  

I'm not missing your point.  Very few here miss any point you make.  

by JK in CBus on May 18, 2007 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Yet silly little PTBNL moves like this doesn't stop you from railing against Shapiro endlessly.

You are missing my point, as all I stated was Shapiro made a minor judgement error.  It then turned into a "i told you so" as everyone supported every move Shapiro made in the offseason.  Since Shapiro "gave up" on Davis after 11 innings, how come the rest of you are not following suit and "giving up" on the moves he made this offseason?

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Since Shapiro "gave up" on Davis after 11 innings, how come the rest of you are not following suit and "giving up" on the moves he made this offseason?

Because they've worked.

Unofficial Andy Marte and Joe Borowski Apologist. My fantasy team - Swindon SpecOps 27.

by woodsmeister on May 19, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Borowski has worked?
Nixon has worked?
Hernandez has worked?
Dellucci has worked?
Barfield has worked?
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 20, 2007 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I just can't get past the fact that the Tribe is in first place and Pronk and Sizemore aren't performing up to their '06 levels.  Something must be working - can you explain it?
Sometimes you just gotta be gritty

by mauichuck on May 20, 2007 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Sizemore isn't?
His HRs are "on pace" for his total of last year, but he is on pace to break his career high in steals - negligible factor even given his zero CSs.

After April last year, Grady had a sigle HR.  This year, 5.

But consider Peralta, Martinez and Garko.  All three are well above the numbers the Tribe were getting to this point.  Even Shoppach is - although another irrelavent number.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 20, 2007 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Sizemore '07 .274/ .397 /.452
Sizemore '06 .290 /.375 /.533  

And he's been turning it on lately.  He'll hit  .300 /.400 /530 before it's over.  He's a better player than his current numbers.

Sometimes you just gotta be gritty

by mauichuck on May 20, 2007 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
"Borowski has been just awful."

Is that what you truly believe?  He's blown two saves in addition to the meltdown in New York.  But each time, he's bounced back and thrown well in his next opportunities.  I can't think of anyone in last year's bullpen that was capable of that.  12 saves, 3rd in the AL.  That Borowski?  He's been awful??  Oh you mean Ted Borowski, yeah, he sucks.

Actually, I've been pleasantly surprised.  I wouldn't classify him as awful in any way, shape or form.

Here's the part where you tell me about how high his ERA is.  Go ahead.  Get it out of system.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 18, 2007 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
oh so the six moves he made this year are hurting the team for 2007, so can you explain how is that we winning and last year we didnt?...i just think you are too negative...we are a better team thatn last year, we needed a bullpen, and we got what Shapiro find, is not the best, but so far it has worked

by luifer5 on May 18, 2007 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Peralta, Martinez, Sizemore, Garko, Sabathia, Carmona, Betancourt, Cabrera, Mastny, Byrd...All 10 of those players are VASTLY improved on their performance at this time a year ago.  

Remember, at this time last year:

  • Byrd had an ERA over 6.
  • Sabathia had missed a month of the season
  • Sizemore had just hit his 5th HR and had fewer then half the SBs + a bunch of CS
  • Betancourt had an ERA around 6 and had missed 15 days
  • Martinez had seen his average drop 90+points and was playing with an injury
  • Peralta had half the HR

Not even to mention the fact that Boone was in the everyday lineup.

I give Shapiro credit where he is due.  He put together a nice team entering this past offseason, but PLEASE do not give his offseason work of this year credit for what they are doing to this point.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I totally agree with you on this one.  If anything the only issues this team has still are with the players Shapiro has picked up this off season.  Hernandez, Borowski and Nixon has not added anything that league average players or internal players couldn't have done.  I would say so far this season we are having some players play above their heads and once July comes we could be looking at a major crash/let down.
Winners practice like Champions, losers go through the motions.

by E5 on May 19, 2007 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Based on what we've seen, I'd trade for Barfield in a second. It's one of Shapiro's best off-season moves.

by ploni on May 18, 2007 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Am so glad all the guys you wanted to sign in the offseason are doing soooo spectacularly ...

by talonk on May 18, 2007 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
The reason J.D. was not traded before opening day is simple:  He still had a chance to contribute.

J.D. has huge stuff, and the Indians believe in his work ethic.  His performance last season showed promise, possibliy a step forward.  His talent is such that he's a marginal player if he can't put it together, but a potential All-Star if he can.  Big risk/reward guy.  That has always been the frustration with him, and that has always been the reason why he wasn't let go.

You obsess over this "didn't take the best 25 guys" thing, but you're missing the bigger picture.  We don't play with a 25-man roster, we play with a 40-man roster -- whichever 25 of 40 we need the most on any given day.  This should be obvious to anyone who has watched the Indians particularly this season and last.

What was the reward for holding onto J.D.?  The potential for him to break out and be a significant contributor in the bullpen.  What was the cost?  Our seventh reliever for 40 games was J.D. rather than Mujica.  (As a side note, I don't think there is a shred of evidence that there was a better trade market for J.D. in the offseason than there was this week.  We got absolutely nothing for Guthrie and used Brown as a throw-in; J.D. was worth more than those guys, but not much more.)

This is a bit like sending the runner from 1B on a full count with one out.  If the batter gets a hit, you win big, netting at least a sac-fly opportunity.  If the batter strikes out, the runner either advances to scoring position with two outs or is thrown out to end the inning.  Where is the risk in this move?  Only that you might lose an opportunity to have a man on 1B with two outs.  Since that's not much of an opoprtunity, the move is not much of a risk, certainly not as much as the potential reward.

Keeping J.D. on the roster is just like sending that runner -- a variety of possible outcomes, very little risk and nice little possible reward.  GM's don't get to deal with absolute values, they get to deal with probabilities and potential scenarios.  I know you will claim to understand this, but it never finds its way into your opinions.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
bingo!

Its an inconsequential loss. JD's value is held in his ability to throw hard...thats about it. I think he's been a little over-rated on this site, at least recently. He's no longer a SP, and has not put together enough success in years to warrant him being at the peak of his trade value (he probably reached that point the year we had him going in as our No.2 guy in the rotation) At this point he's a "flyer" for some team to take and a roadblock for one of our younger relievers. I'm happy with what we got back in return, not expecting what some on here were predicting (AA guys, etc) Young tall pitching talent, making up for the fact that we lost many of our draft picks this past offseason.

I don't see how this is a bad move, nor do I see how in any way Shapiro could have made a bad move!.

by hans on May 18, 2007 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Okay, stay with me here, because you, and everyone else are missing what I am saying entirely.  The whole "Brandini for GM" thing is actually laughable, considering how minor my "complaint" actually is.

Anyways, The reason J.D. was not traded before opening day is simple:  He still had a chance to contribute.  Entirely reasonable.  I can see Shapiro sitting in his office in December - or after all the signings were complete and saying, "I'm going to let Davis, Cabrera and Betancourt fight it out for the final two spots in the bullpen.  I'll even allow for my players with options to take a swing at things."  That is actually a LOGICAL perspective and I entirely understand it.

Foulke retires, and Shapiro, although irritated and upset is joyful as now all three of the aforementioned pitchers have a spot in the bullpen.  He allows for the pitchers with options to battle it out, giving them hope, but inside, he knew they never had a chance.

But in that final note, is where the problem lies.  I understand that JD is out of options and he was worth a shot, what I DON'T understand is how after 11 innings Shapiro could walk in and make this decision.  ELEVEN INNINGS!  And even though the sample size is ridiculously small, the 11 innings weren't even that bad.  
In fact, it was only a single outting that truly did him in.  An outting that represents 3% of his season yet 33% of his walk total.

So there inlies the problem.  Shapiro made a decision based on 11 innings.  And in reality, he made it based on a single appearance against the Os.  So this SAME thought process is what irks me ever so slightly.  It is interesting that there was no room on the roster for Davis as the last reliever on the depth chart and that after 11 innings Shapiro is CERTAIN he could not continue to build on his "success" last year, YET Borowski is STILL the closer.  Yet Hernandez is still logging meaningful innings.  Yet Sowers is still being handed the ball every fifth day.  Yet Blake is still in the everyday lineup.  Yet Dellucci is still regularly in the lineup.

Do you see this trend?  How is it that Davis got "booted" yet the rest of these players who are struggling to a greater extent are still playing vital roles?
I understand some of the veteran experience and I also understand "hunches" and feelings.  But what I don't understand is making this move after 11 innings.

Furthermore, the value for the trade is fine.  I would have been fine with this value at any point.  That Davis was DFA'ed was not the right decision given his role on the club.

Also, comparing Davis to Guthrie and Brown is entirely different.  First, Davis has had some success at the big league level.  As both a starter and a reliever.  Guthrie and Brown have hardly had a sniff at the show and weren't very impressive for the duration of it.  That said, as a starter, I believe Davis had more value and thus a December/ST trade would have netted the most for Davis.

Again, this is about methodology.  Maybe Shapiro will come out and say, "Yea, Davis regressed, so I had to move him," OR he could come out and say, "I made a mistake holding onto him for the last 3 years"  Either way is not a BIG DEAL, I would just hate for another more valuable player to lose their job because of a short slump.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I would just hate for another more valuable player to lose their job because of a short slump.

Jason Davis has been with the big league team off and on since 2002. Even if you disregard his time as a starter, Shapiro has several seasons' worth of data on him. Sample size is hardly an issue.

The man throws neither his 4-seamer nor his breaking ball for strikes. Ed Mujica throws nothing but strikes. The seventh reliever has one job, and Eddy Moo not only does it better than J.D. right now, but also he probably will continue to do so for as long as they play professional baseball. DFA'ing Davis and replacing him with Mujica makes this team better.

by fleerdon on May 18, 2007 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I entirely agree with your final statement, I just don't understand why they waited.  No matter what anyone says, Shapiro's back was against the wall in this situation.  He had to take the best available offer.  Had he been shopping him in Decemeber/ST, he would have had a negotiating chip, atleast then, he could say, "thats fine, he'll be in our pen anyways".  But by DFAing him, it was, "well, its either this, or nothing"
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
So there inlies the problem.  Shapiro made a decision based on 11 innings.

Keeping Davis to begin with was not necessarily a clear-cut decision.  They justified keeping him due to the options, based on feeling that others with options weren't necessarily much better than he was.  Things change, and it starts looking less and less like a close decision between Davis and the options guys.

Far more important, though, is that J.D. pitching those 11 innings was not the only thing that happened since they broke camp in Winter Haven.  The performances of others in the Cleveland and Buffalo bullpens also happened.  The Cleveland bullpen performed well but not that well, occasionally showing some strain from overwork.  The Buffalo crew generally was doing well.  Using that seventh spot to shuttle the options guys in and out, as needed -- the value of being able to do that went up in Wedge and Shapiro's view.

It's never just about one player.  It's about options.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
There is no other solution...  Fire Shapiro!  He's obviously mis-guided this team and the organization!

by JK in CBus on May 18, 2007 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Thats not what I'm saying!

What I am saying, is that he made a mistake.  It isn't one that killed this team.  But it didn't help.  To me, it just goes on the list with Borowski, Hernandez, Dellucci, Gonzalez, etc.  Not "fire worthy" moves, just questionable ones.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
At what point does a group of questionable moves become firing worthy?
-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 18, 2007 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
When other the bar for GMs is raised.  All over the majors GMs make moves that are bad to awful.

Also, making moves that wash out the bad.  IE locking up Grady, making a trade for one of the top 3B prospects in the game, being atop the organization that drafted Sowers, Miller, Lofgren, etc.

I think that a baseball GM has 3-6 bad moves for every good one.  It is Shapiro's job to ensure that the 3-6 bad moves are not devastating to the organization and to keep it closer to 3 then 6.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I think that a baseball GM has 3-6 bad moves for every good one.

I mean, could there be a sentence that more perfectly distills the essense of Brandini? This doesn't even make sense. How is it possible that every single GM makes three to six times more bad moves than good ones? It's a zero sum game man; the bad moves have to equal the good moves. I mean, this is just crazy talk. This sounds like something Steve Phillips would say. My head hurts just trying to think about it.

by dctribefan on May 19, 2007 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
But it is how you come off.  The team's in first.  Other organizations and national publications think highly of the Tribe, and the fan based is happy and excited.  If Shapiro makes a mistake with the JDs of the world, oh well.  Its better than the team scuffling along at a .470 clip with no hope.

No one has any way of knowing the difference Mujica vs Davis would have had on the team, but it probably would not have changed much.  Would you have rather had less depth?  And does anyone really know if Shapiro tried to trade JD earlier?  You have knowledge that he didn't?

by JK in CBus on May 18, 2007 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
No one has any way of knowing the difference Mujica vs Davis would have had on the team, but it probably would not have changed much.  Would you have rather had less depth?  And does anyone really know if Shapiro tried to trade JD earlier?  You have knowledge that he didn't?

I already stated the difference would have been minimal, but it is still something.  What if Shapiro treated all 25 roster spots in that manner?  Then it would be noticable.

Less Depth?  From the last arm in the bullpen?  When there was a pitcher recently SOLD to Japan.  Lets be serious, bullpen depth of so-so pitchers is not an issue with this organization.  Also, is depth on May 17th less important then depth on April 1st?  If so, hardly!

I do not have knowledge that he did not try.  Do you have knowledge that he did?  Given that the trade happened rather quickly, and to a team that had little need for another bullpen arm - no serious health issues or underperformance - I think it is safe to say a trade COULD have occurred to this team in the offseason.  Since it didn't, it appears as if he did not "try" to trade him earlier.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
So, essentially, you are arguing that the difference between actual performance on the field and some vague optimal performance standard(ie., the best option for the Indians as you see it, whether that player is with this team, at AAA, or another player you may covet) is all Shapiro's fault.

Even minimal differences may be laid at Shapiro's feet.  If Santana had no-hit this team yesterday, it would be Mark Shapiro's fault because we did not have Santana, and, barring that, did not have someone who could hit Santana on that day.  In fact, whenever this team loses a game it becomes Shapiro's fault for not putting out the team that could win that day's game.  

I'm sorry, but your argument reduces to absurdity.  

And please don't accuse me of missing your point or not reading your post correctly.  I'm tired of that being your response every time someone questions the absurd and ridiculous arguments you make and extrapolates from your posts the logic of what you are arguing, questionable as that logic may be.

Unofficial Andy Marte and Joe Borowski Apologist. My fantasy team - Swindon SpecOps 27.

by woodsmeister on May 18, 2007 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Prior to 2006, Shapiro took a highly successful 2005 pen and, seeing good prospects in Buffalo, decided he could afford to reduce depth by two.  That is, he let Howry walk and traded Rhodes for an outfielder.  I actually predicted he would do this, because it seemed like the smart thing to do, deal from depth as a position of strength.  You can decide for yourself whether that makes me smart or dumb.

Prior to 2007, Shapiro ran headlong in the opposite direction -- in part because he saw no other obvious flaw on the team (other than a grit deficit of course).  He signed four free agent relievers and kept as many guys in the minors as he could.  He even kept Sikorski around, despite the promising big-league debuts of a half-dozen other pitchers slated for Buffalo.  The only pitchers he let go were, in fact, guys who were out of options (Brown and Guthrie) -- guys he couldn't keep even if he wanted to, because of his free agent signings.

I think Shapiro's actions (and statements) made clear that he wanted two things for the Indians bullpen this season:  (1) No shortage of veteran pitchers to put into key roles if necessary.  (2) No shortage of quality arms to throw in there at any given moment.

Davis was one of those quality arms of course, but his lack of options limited the Indians' ability to play any given week with 30 rather than 25.  He also was less of a long-term asset than the guys waiting in Buffalo, all of whom are under control through 2013.

That is basically the whole story here.  Shapiro kept everyone he could to start the year, probably gnashed his teeth losing Guthrie in fact.  But it's not the start of the year anymore.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Prior to 2006, Shapiro took a highly successful 2005 pen and, seeing good prospects in Buffalo, decided he could afford to reduce depth by two.  That is, he let Howry walk and traded Rhodes for an outfielder.  I actually predicted he would do this, because it seemed like the smart thing to do, deal from depth as a position of strength.  You can decide for yourself whether that makes me smart or dumb.

ENTIRELY INCORRECT!  Shapiro tried his HARDEST to land one of the top teir FA closers.  BJ Ryan, Trevor Hofman and I think there was another that he did everything in his power to bring to Cleveland.  He lucked out and Wickman returned.  He also brought in Mota.  I also think much of the reason he lost out on Howry was due to the salary, not that he was not interested in him.  But given the money he threw at relievers this year, I imagine Shapiro regrets his course of action during the offseason prior to 2006.

Shapiro kept everyone he could to start the year, probably gnashed his teeth losing Guthrie in fact.  But it's not the start of the year anymore.

The Guthrie point is a good one.  Why is it he was willing to have Carmona/Sowers start the season in the big leagues and allow Guthrie to "walk"?  Clearly a talent deficit existed and Shapiro is trying his best to put a winning product on the field.  Similarly with Davis.  With obviously superior arms "in waiting" why did he "wait" and put himself in a back against the wall situation?  That is what I have been saying OVER and OVER and OVER again!

The fact is, Shapiro made a couple decisions this offseason.  You mentioned a couple of them and earlier alluded to others, those including the movement of Guthrie and Brown.  He didn't trade Guthrie and Brown simply because they were out of options, it was twofold.  He knew that Guthrie was not the pitcher Sowers/Carmona are and that Brown is not the pitcher that Davis, Cabrera, Betancourt, etc are.  
With all of that in mind, how is it after 5 seasons and 390 innings he could not decide that Davis was not an integral part of this team winning, yet after 5.3 seasons and 401 innings he could make this decision?

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
ENTIRELY INCORRECT!

Brandini, you have a real problem here.  It's bad enough that you're saying I'm incorrect when factually, I'm entirely correct.  But you also don't have to say it this way.

I said Shapiro reduced his reliever depth by two, and I explained how.  The fact that he chased other free agent closers is irrelevant -- he attempted to replace Wickman with someone else, and ended up back with Wickman.  This doesn't affect depth, only quality.  The acquisition of Mota also didn't affect  depth, because he gave up Karsay in that deal.

So I was, in fact, entirely correct.  And you ought to take this moment to re-assess the resolute certainty with which you present your shakey observations.  This is the Cora-blocked-Peralta episode all over again.

I'll respond to your other points later, after you've acknowledged that I was entirely correct about this one.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I said Shapiro reduced his reliever depth by two, and I explained how.  The fact that he chased other free agent closers is irrelevant -- he attempted to replace Wickman with someone else, and ended up back with Wickman.  This doesn't affect depth, only quality.  The acquisition of Mota also didn't affect  depth, because he gave up Karsay in that deal

We have no clue whether or not Shapiro was chasing Ryan AND Hoffman to be in the bullpen together or separately.  Thus you can not conclude that Shapiro went into the offseason with the thought process that he would exit being negative two.  He came out that way, but you are trying to get inside his head.  

Also!  Shapiro made offers to his exiting FA pitchers, are you trying to tell me that he did not want them?

The problem here is, you are looking at a result.  It would be like saying that when a hitter swings and misses, its like he hit a home run, because thats what he was going for.

The fact is, Shapiro made offers to multiple relievers, he "failed" by his standards.  Thus, you are "entirely incorrect" in stating that Shapiro INTENDED to take two relievers out of his bullpen, as he made offers to atleast 5...

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Talk about making up points ....

No way he intended to sign Ryan and Hoffman, look at the dollars involved .. duh.

If he did make offers to 5 guys, it wasn't all at the same time. He offered money to Howry, he wanted more, he was allowed to walk.

He offered money to Ryan, he signed with Toronto. He then offered a contract to Hoffman, who almost signed, but didn't. Then he resigned Wickman.

He methodically went through his progressions. Jay already stated what happened, you continue to wear your blinders.

by talonk on May 18, 2007 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
This whole post just leaves me speechless.  You have shown a total disregard for reality here.  I'm done.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Reality?

Did or did he not try to resign Howry? 1
Did or did he not try to sign Ryan and Hoffman? 2
Did or did he not sign Wickman? 1

That is a total of 4 offers that were OBVIOUS.  Now none of us are in his head, so none of us know the true cause and effect that each rejection cost, but the FACT is, Shapiro DID NOT intend to lose 2 relievers from his bullpen.

I'm glad you are done.

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I'm glad you are done.

That's lovely.

You also are almost done with this discussion, one way or another.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Well, I hope Shapiro learned his lesson from that off season then because you can never have enough pitching.  Trading Rhodes was a good deal but to have a below league average left fielder returned was not a good choice.  Rather it wasn't a bad trade to receive Michaels it was a bad decision to make him the every day left fielder as at best he is a good 4th outfielder/platoon/pinch hitter type.  

Secondly, the truth of the matter is that Shapiro did want to resign Howry but they made some timing errors as they proceeded to contact him.  The truth was they wanted to sign a higher profile closer first but when that feel through they turned to Howry but by that time the ink was drying on his contract with the Cubs.  Mostly I am upset with that off season because we didn't have any proven 8th inning pitchers in the organization and basically treated Howry like a throw away piece which he was not.

Winners practice like Champions, losers go through the motions.

by E5 on May 19, 2007 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
The team's in first.  Other organizations and national publications think highly of the Tribe, and the fan based is happy and excited.  If Shapiro makes a mistake with the JDs of the world, oh well.  Its better than the team scuffling along at a .470 clip with no hope.

Did these other organizations and publications pick the Tigers to win the WS last year?  Let alone be at all competitive?

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I don't remember anyone slamming Detroit's FO the way folks criticize teams FOs in Baltimore or Seattle either.  

And for your next manufactured argument....

by JK in CBus on May 18, 2007 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rosario Report
I got to see Gregorio Rosario throw a handful of starts last year in the Dominican Summer League while interviewing Mariners' Dominican staff as part of a project I'm working on involving international baseball.  Thought I'd pass some info along to y'all.

A few times, I even sat behind a gun.

Rosario signed three years ago for $180,000.  Not premier money, but a sizeable bonus for a 16-year-old Dominican.  Basically, they considered him comparable to a 4th or 5th-round talent.  His fastball touched 93 at times last year, but he usually sits in the 88-91 range.  He has some room to grow, however.  His curveball could potentially develop into a plus pitch, but it's really, really inconsistent at this point, and his tendency to hang it led to a lot of well-hit fly balls against DSL hitters it should have been dominating.  His change was also pretty well advanced for a 17-year-old.  

He's a pretty interesting talent.  As an Ms fan, I'm not crying over losing him for someone who's already an adequate major league reliever, but I thought you'd be happy to know there's at least a small chance this deal will come back to hurt the Ms.

by jhelfgott @ Let's Go Tribe! on May 18, 2007 10:27 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Rosario Report
thanks for the first hand account!

by Brick. on May 18, 2007 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Rosario Report
Post of the Week.

We'll never read anything elsewhere about the Tribe as timely or unexpectedly good as this. Thanks.

by ploni on May 18, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the info. - greatly appreciated!
Hello jhelfgott,

Nice to see you over here at LGT!  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on May 18, 2007 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Rosario Report
I hate when real facts are injected in the discussion (snark).

Very helpful!  $180,000 for a 16 year.  How is that in the scheme of signings of youngsters that age, high, low, average? It sounds like a lot.  I didn't know that teams were spreading around money like that.  It adds up.

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Rosario Report
$180,000 is a hefty bonus.  There are teams (Oakland , Minnesota, St. Louis) who don't ever go above $75,000 for a Latin-American kid.  The Mariners spend more than most, though.

Before last year, there were generally about 8-12 6-figure signings per year.  The 2006 offseason kind of blew the lid on the international market, though, so you'll probably see a lot more than that this year.  I put together the most comprehensive list I've seen of last year's international bonuses over at my blog, if you're curious about the top end of the spectrum.  It's linked on the blog's front page.

http://globalbaseball.wordpress.com

by jhelfgott @ Let's Go Tribe! on May 19, 2007 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
This site cracks me up.  48 posts (and going) over a DSL pitcher whom only a guest mariner really knows about? (Don't get me wrong, though, I like the enthusiasm.)

$0.03 - Put him in the decent prospect bin and check back in 2 years.

by Thommy on May 18, 2007 11:27 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I actually could care less about who we got, it wasn't going to be a guy above A ball. I just knew Brandini would be whining about some aspect of the deal. Have to keep the good fight going ...

by talonk on May 18, 2007 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
It isn't the player its the method...LEARN TO READ!
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
What can I say.  Shap has made another strange move, however given the wierdness of it all.  I still like the deal but really we just picked up another future Jason Davis.  (A thrower not a pitcher)
Winners practice like Champions, losers go through the motions.

by E5 on May 18, 2007 12:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I am impressed that you know all of this for a guy that there isn't a lot of information on

by Roger Dorn on May 18, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
the kid is 18....lets give a few years (i think thommy stated this already) before we even begin to talk about what we got in this deal. The only thing I'm certian about is this guy is physically mature for his age.

by hans on May 18, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
OK, Brandini (or NN for short), since you are the brilliant GM who will take Shapiro's place in the next five years ....

Please enlighten us on what type of player we should have received in return for JD.

  1. In December when we should have dealt him (according to you)

  2. In April, at the conclusion of the spring training with all the rosters set.

and ..

3. Just this week, when he was DFAed.

If you are so all knowlegdeable, you should be able to provide us with teams that would have taken JD and the player/prospect we received in return for all 3 scenarios.

I'll just say now, that I won't be holding my breath, waiting on a reply.

by talonk on May 18, 2007 12:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Chad Cordero, of course.  Duh.
Unofficial Andy Marte and Joe Borowski Apologist. My fantasy team - Swindon SpecOps 27.

by woodsmeister on May 18, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Good thing I didn't hold my breath, its been over 2 hours and not a peep.

by talonk on May 18, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Sorry, went golfing...
  1. Probably the same player we received now.  Who knows, who cares!  But isn't the job of the GM to put the best lineup on the field as he possibly can?  Sure JD was out of options, but if the plan was to move him anyways...
  2. So the rosters are MORE set in April then they are in Mid May?  Interesting!  Had Davis went to a team that was desperate for pitching help, you've got a point, but he didn't!  Thus the "roster set" notion is worth nothing.
  3. Quote me when I said the player the Indians got was bad?  Please.

The problem here is, you did not read/comprehend me!  I stated that if the plan was to move on without Davis, WHY WAIT?!?  While this might not have been the "plan", I would then like to hear what the Indians learned in 11 innings this season, that they did not learn in the previous 390 innings over the past 5 seasons.
Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Nice non-reply. You still didn't make any proposal as how what you wanted to do would make the team better either.

So if we trade JD in December for the same A ball player we got, how does that improve the squad now? Mujica over Davis at this point is negligible at best. We are talking about pitcher number 13 on the roster. Same as in April. Same as in now. Who cares when the deal was made if we get the same prospect.

As we and all the other teams knew, he was out of options. So we kept him through spring to see if he could finally turn that corner. I really don't see how any harm was done by keeping him until May 17, rather than fdoing it the offseason.

Look, I think Shapiro sits on prospects too long too, but I can't really see how this "non-offseason" move is a tragic flaw in Shapiro's abilities.

Almost every response you put on this site is "Oh you didn't read my response clearly enough", "That's not what I meant", blah blah blah.... Very rarely do you present alternative options in your arguments. You usually just flat out say, "This move stunk, we could have done better", or something to that effect, without making any RATIONAL proposal whatsoever.

You so remind me of the cynical posters on the ESPN boards. Maybe you'd find happier company in that forum. There are a lot of "Negative Nancys" there.

by talonk on May 18, 2007 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Look, I think Shapiro sits on prospects too long too, but I can't really see how this "non-offseason" move is a tragic flaw in Shapiro's abilities.

MAJOR PROBLEM!  I NEEEEEEEVER said that this was a "tragic flaw" or stated anything of Shapiro's ability altogether.  I will save that for judgement at the end of the season after I see what the crop of FAs do.

What I did state is that it seems as if he made a mistake in the dealing with JD.  I can not name a prospect that is better or that was available, because I do not know.  I DO know that JD was available to everyone and Shapiro only recieved a PTBNL.
I also stated that even if this was the best Shapiro could do, he would have been more wise to do it in December or ST rather then in the middle of May where there is atleast a SLIVER of a chance that no one offers him a thing and he loses JD for nothing!  That happens all the time!

As for not making a rational point, it would be IMPOSSIBLE to do so because I have no clue how JD was valued, how other prospects are valued OR if they are even available!  I do know how a market works, and if a GM is up against the wall, chances are the value he will receive is slightly less.

Lastly, the Davis v. Mujica thing has no valid point.  The point here, that you have missed about 100 times, is that Shapiro "misjudged" Davis.  There is no way around that!

Governor's Cup in '07!

by Brandini on May 18, 2007 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
If Shapiro "misjudged" Davis, I cannot believe that is what you are trying to crucify him for. This happens all the time on every roster with players who do not have options left. You are making a mountain out of a molehill for the 13th pitcher (which probably equates to #33 out of 40 players on the roster).

If you cannot provide a reasonable alternative to what has occurred, stop complaining.

But no matter, you'll never listen (see your arguments with many other posters: Jay, erik, and the rest). You are the only one defending this position. This is not a simple majority, but an overwhelming one.

Whatever, you obviously have an axe to grind with Shapiro on his every move. I guess I'll let you keep spouting your venom towards him. I just wish you'd do it on the ESPN board instead of here.

by talonk on May 18, 2007 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
One major problem I have with Shapiro is that he seems to always have some of our players in positions where they only have one or no options left so we are left to trade them away or release them.

Jeremy Guthrie, B.Phillips and J. Davis

All these players are league average or above players we have basically given away.  Mean while we have signed below league average bums like Byrd, J. Johnson, Borowski and Nixon for millions when we could have spent that money better on higher quality replacements.

He doesn't seem to manage his roster moves well enough to avoid these problems.

Winners practice like Champions, losers go through the motions.

by E5 on May 19, 2007 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
One major problem I have with Shapiro is that he seems to always have some of our players in positions where they only have one or no options left so we are left to trade them away or release them.

All GM's find themselves in this situation.  We lost Guthrie for the same reason we gained Mike Rouse.  If the Indians have it more, it's mainly because the Indians the last few years have had a glut of high-minors talent, mostly B and C prospects.  As a possible secondary cause, Shapiro may be too invested in certain players.  He believed completely in BP's talent and in JD's work ethic, so he stuck with them two years after they probably should have "arrived" already.

Mean while we have signed below league average bums

Here you depart from common sense.  If Guthrie was likely to perform like Byrd, he'd be in the rotation.  If JD were likely to perform like Hernandez, we'd have kept him, too.  BP, I'll give you that, as we've been over and over.  But in general, the guys we have cast off have not been the equal of veterans we have acquired, you just have higher expectations for the veterans.

by Jay on May 19, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Relevant to Rosario and other low-minors prospects from Latin America, this article explains why few of these prospects make it to the American minors to play in rookie ball or even Low-A.  The bill opening the visa rules for MLB prospects was signed into law on Dec. 22.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 12:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Thanks for the link.  I wonder if that change is part of the reason Lake County has a bunch of really young Latin American players this season (Espino:20, Rondon:19, Gomez:18, and Rivero:18).  Although I suppose most of these guys debuted last year in the GCL...

by APV on May 18, 2007 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Since this thread has already exploded, I'd like to remind everyone that Brandon Phillips makes his return to the Jake tonight.

by homelytourist on May 18, 2007 1:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Wow.  Rather than my customary smackdown, I have to say ... well played.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I hear we're bringing up Jeff Stevens so that he and Phillips can face off and a final judgement made on BP, Shapiro, all past and future PTBNLs, and how many licks it takes to get to the center of a tootsie-roll tootsie-pop

by APV on May 18, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
As if the latter point needs to be discussed.  It's 3, the owl already answered that question.  Case closed.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 18, 2007 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
As soon as I saw 83 new posts, I knew Brandini had been here.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on May 18, 2007 1:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
If only IIS was here, we could break 300 easy ....

by talonk on May 18, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
To think that a group of anybodys in the world, outside of a major league organization, spent probably a combined 100 hours on this trade makes me realize we have it too good.  We should all go plant a tree, volunteer at a food bank, or be try really hard to understand Brandini's point of view in order to attone for our sins.

by Thommy on May 18, 2007 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
You know why?  Two good reasons from the top of my head.  First, don't let arguments that are anathema to common sense exist without pushback.  Letting people get away with them emboldens them to keep on pushing the same ideas over people.  The cumulative effect of letting these things slide makes for passivity causes people to not care about doing the right thing.  When you allow people to do the wrong thing without protest, you give license that says its ok.  And second, Because good strategy and smart decisions save a lot more time down the road. Even though it cost 100 hours, we hone our arguments to make better decisions as a group.  It raises everyones standards.  Sure, one has to pick one's battles because its hard to be on the ramparts all the time, but if the group together has high standards, we are all better off.  But volunteering at a food bank is good too.

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Nicely put Mr. Spikes.  The more the intolerable is widely tolerated, the more tolerable it becomes.

by stuart dean on May 18, 2007 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Ha! But I was walking through Kensington Park in London today (really...hey there TribeFaninLondon) and the squirrels looked so cute, I couldn't help myself.  Who knew they'd bite my fingers?  But a good warning indeed, thanks!

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 18, 2007 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
I know this thread is mostly done...mostly, but I thought I'd just say hello Bomber.

Hope you're enjoying the delights the city has to offer...crazy squirrels and all. Interesting factoid to lighten the mood, the indigenous (sp?) red squirrel is being slowly killed out by the American grey squirrel you no doubt encountered.

And I hope the baseball vacuum that is England isn't too tough...thank God for the internet!

by Luis (Tribe Fan in London) on May 19, 2007 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Sorry I bastardized Kensington "Park", which is actually "Kensington Garden".  Must be torture to hear that.  I'm off to Notting Hill to find Hugh Grant's blue door and experience the market.

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Gorgeous weather today.  I saw a Red Squirrel earlier in the week.  Not all pumped up like its American cousin.  Anyway, no one gives a hoot about American baseball here, especially due to the Manchester United/Chelsea soccer match tonight.  I tried to watch cricket practice the other day in Holland Park.  What's up with that?  

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Good luck finding Hugh Grant's door, but an interesting trendy place anyway!

Cricket is our summer sport and you're clearly in the flash part of town and it does tend to be more of a posh person's sport....the rules aren't too difficult to get your head round. Basically an innnings is over when all the team is out.

Did you watch the football? If so I apologise because it was a terrible excuse of a match! Chelsea is local to Kensington/Holland Park/Notting Hill so you should find a great atmosphere in the bars tonight!

If you want a baseball fix, watch Channel 5 at 1am tomorrow night

by Luis (Tribe Fan in London) on May 19, 2007 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Happened past a pub when Chelsea scored so got to see the replays and lots of happy inebriated Chelsea fans. The cheer went up and I ducked in.  Fine weather the last few days.  I should have hit the bars tonight but got caught at a movie instead.  Insane real estate prices.

by Bogalusa Bomber on May 19, 2007 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Lord am I glad I didn't pay a cover to watch that match at the only place showing it locally.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on May 20, 2007 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
It's getting a little personal in here.  Let's stick to the merits of each person's argument.  If there is a broader point to be made about our argument tendencies -- not just Brandini's but mine or others' too -- I think it's been made already.

by Jay on May 18, 2007 3:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Guglia? Oh, so Julia's last name's gonna be Guglia. Julia Guglia! That's funny!

by rog on May 18, 2007 3:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
wow, a lot of interest, 139 posts, on this unknown PTBNL.

by portlandtribefan on May 18, 2007 4:51 PM EDT reply actions  

I too was amazed at the number!
Hello everyone,

I think my eyeballs popped when I seen the number - when I came inside the thread, I could see why there was that high number of posts.  :-)

I think this was already mentioned (not absolutely sure though,) but I think the main reason why Davis was kept on the ML roster and Mujica was kept at AAA Buffalo to start the season is because -

It's easier to replace a struggling veteran on your roster with the talented AAA rookie or young player by letting the veteran go (via trade, DFA, etc.) and calling up the rookie/young player than it is to start the season with the rookie/young player and try to make a move to replace him if that rookie/young player falters because a veteran likely isn't going to go down to AAA if he doesn't make the ML roster (i.e. you'll lose him if he doesn't make the roster spot.)  Then if the rookie/young player falters and you don't have the veteran anymore, you've got to go scrambling through the "leftovers" or make a likely expensive trade to try to come up with a suitable replacement for that rookie/young player, whereas if you had done it the other way around, it would be far less risky (and probably less costly prospect-wise) for the organization.

Therefore, the best choice for virtually every ML franchise (especially with ones with limited budgets like the Indians) is to start off with the veteran, see how he does, then if they feel a change needs to be, to release or trade him and call up the rookie/young player rather than trying to do it the other way around.

That's what the Indians did with Davis and Mujica, so really, I see no problem with how the Indians proceeded.  I really don't think the Indians would have gotten anything more for Davis a few months ago, and probably would have gotten less, as I agree with Erik's thinking regarding Davis' value back in the offseason being less than it is now because more teams were in need of a reliever (which is what Davis really is - I don't think teams were really interested in him as a starter, since he hasn't started a game since 2005) now than they were in December or early April.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on May 18, 2007 7:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: I too was amazed at the number!
It's the volume of text, not the number of posts, which makes this thread special.

This is going to sound really lame, but I ran a word count, omiting all the headers and footers.  14,507 words of readable type.  5,328 (36%) from one source.  

I did this because I was curious, not to prove a point.

by homelytourist on May 18, 2007 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: I too was amazed at the number!
And all of this about a bust-out middle inning RP and an 18 y.o. Dominican pitcher built like an Ethiopian refugee - amazing!
Sometimes you just gotta be gritty

by mauichuck on May 18, 2007 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: I too was amazed at the number!
this is my favorite point in the thread and i may be in the minority, but jason davis sucks. no way aorund it. matt anderson was once the tigers closer and sported a 99mph fastball until everyone realized he is horrible and now i have no idea where he is pitching

by Roger Dorn on May 19, 2007 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Matt Anderson Info.! :-)
Hello Roger Dorn,

FYI - Anderson last pitched in 2005 with the Rockies:

12 G, 10.0 IP, 19 H, 17 R, 14 ER, 3 HR, 11 BB, 4 K, 12.60 ERA.

In 2006, he split time between Bridgeport in the Independent Atlantic League and Fresno, the Giants AAA PCL Affiliate:

Bridgeport:
15 G, 1-1, 15.1 IP, 12 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 HR, 8 BB, 17 K, 4.11 ERA

Fresno:
26 G, 1-2, 34.1 IP, 48 H, 36 R, 35 ER, 8 HR, 29 BB, 33 K, 3 WP, 9.17 ERA

Regarding 2007, I did not find him doing a name search of "Anderson" on MinorLeagueBaseball.com, so he's not playing in the Minor Leagues, and I'm pretty sure he's not playing in the MLs, so either he's playing in the Independent Leagues or he's not playing organized baseball at the age of 30 (will be 31 in August.)

As I mentioned in the post above, Rosario has a better chance of turning into something useful to great for us because he has much potential and projection left; Davis has no projection left, so he likely won't be any better than he is now.  And being that we have much reliever depth in our system, it's really not a "loss" for us even if Rosario never pans out, but we won't know for several years whether he will or won't.  

Essentially, it's a low-risk, high-reward deal for us, so I think it's a solid trade from our perspective.  Hopefully, it works out favorably for us in the future.  

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on May 19, 2007 3:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
my cache no longer has the space to load this page.

by Brick. on May 19, 2007 12:06 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Jay, Ryan, please close this thread .... it has sorely gone past its livable existence.

by talonk on May 19, 2007 2:17 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Can we PLEASE talk about Brandon Phillips and Coco Crisp now?

by afh4 on May 19, 2007 10:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: PTBNL from the Davis deal: Gregorio Rosario
Classic!
Unofficial Andy Marte and Joe Borowski Apologist. My fantasy team - Swindon SpecOps 27.

by woodsmeister on May 19, 2007 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

As one last M's fan
I think all of your reactions to this are pretty funny.  If you go back to discussions before at Sickels blog and this blog indians fans thought they were going to get something of value.  The fact is that everyone know Davis isn't any good.  You know that.  We know that.  And it worked out in the end cause the prospect you got will be about #1058 on your depth chart for pitchers.  We didn't trade you the new Grady.  We traded you some kid nobody has heard of or seen besides maybe a handful of local scouts.  I just hope in the future you eyes won't light up quite as much when you try to pawn off some garbage on somebody else.

by Edgar for Pres on May 20, 2007 1:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: As one last M's fan
Well put.  This board has a tendency to think that we have this great GM who is going to swindle other GM's into giving us great prospects for Garbage or league average players and that just doesn't happen.  Shapiro's track record for trading isn't that great.  The best deal he ever made was the Colon deal and that only happened because the Expos were close to winning a division championship and they were going for the gold.  As it was we nearly ruining Brandon Phillips career and let him go for mere peanuts. Now Phillips is a possible NL All Star and all we have is that bag of peanuts.
Winners practice like Champions, losers go through the motions.

by E5 on May 20, 2007 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: As one last M's fan
E5, I understand why a Mariners fan would spout nonsense venom like this -- he's embittered because his front office is incompetent.  I don't understand, however, why you would be so quick to condemn the Indians or your fellow fans.

His claims and yours are exaggerated, bordering on entirely false.  Folks here don't expect Shapiro to rip off another GM; rather, they expect Bavasi to let himself get ripped off.

The best deal he ever made was Hafner for Diaz, by the way.

by Jay on May 20, 2007 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: As one last M's fan
Whoa man I don't think I sprayed too much venom and what nonsense did I say?

by Edgar for Pres on May 21, 2007 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: As one last M's fan
indians fans thought they were going to get something of value

We did get something of value.  The more extreme predictions were made in jest, the joke being that there's no known limit to Bavasi's stupidity.

The fact is that everyone know Davis isn't any good.

Davis has value.  I'm sure the Mariners weren't the only team willing to give up something of value, however small it may seem to you, in your ignorance.  But given our history, it only makes sense that if Bavasi wants a guy, we're going to give him to Bavasi.

And it worked out in the end cause the prospect you got will be about #1058 on your depth chart for pitchers.

The current depth chart isn't everything.  I don't expect a Mariners fan to understand this.

We didn't trade you the new Grady.

That's what they all say, three years earlier.

We traded you some kid nobody has heard of or seen besides maybe a handful of local scouts.

That's just your ignorance talking.  Obviously he is not well known outside the industry, but very few teenagers outside the U.S. are known outside the industry.  Despite this "limitation," quite a few major leaguers were in fact teenagers outside the U.S. at one point in their lives.  Victor Martinez comes to mind.

I just hope in the future you eyes won't light up quite as much when you try to pawn off some garbage on somebody else.

You can hardly blame Indians fans for this, who not only are merely reacting as any fan would to a potential acquisition, but who also have been conditioned to expect something-for-garbage from the Mariners.  I've got news for you:  Davis has almost as much value as Broussard in my book, and quite a bit more than Eduardo Perez had.

And we may eventually find that this kid Rosario has more value than Choo and Cabrera, for that matter.  I don't know.  But you don't know, either.

Now run along.

by Jay on May 21, 2007 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

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