Adam Miller...closer?

by haymister on May 22, 2007 11:04 AM EDT

Nate Silver answered the following question yesterdays chat:

ericturner29 (Chicago): Who would you have close for the Tribe?

Nate Silver: Adam Miller. Maybe.

Discuss. Idle chatter (yawn)? Great idea, never happen? Stupidest thing you've heard since Steve Phillips said (insert anything he's ever said0? Papelbon redux?

0 recs | Comment 36 comments

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Re: Adam Miller...closer?

I don't think it's a terrible idea, but it is the kind of thing that stat guys will toss out casually without having looked at the situation close-up.

I don't think we can take for granted that there are many rookies who could step into that role. I think what happened to Carmona was a fluke -- but not entirely. So here's a guy who's about ready to become a lights-out starter ... yet he couldn't close, for whatever reason. From what I've read of Miller, it may well be that he can close, talking only about the mental part of it. But this is speculation.

The states of our rotation and bullpen are going to have a lot to say about this. Unless the pen is in crisis, I have trouble seeing Miller moved into any relief role if our rotation isn't six-deep.

But the biggest question is going to be: How does the Indians med staff think Miller's arm would hold up in a relief role? Because if they think that's any kind of risk, it just won't happen. That's not something Nate Silver has any data on, one way or another, and yet it's the biggest factor in the decision.

Miller is 22, which means he's in the last super-high-risk year of his career. This may be the year we really, really want him, but this is also the year we can't take risks with him.

by Jay on May 22, 2007 11:14 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Also:

jaymoff (Salem, OR): Hafner or Ortiz? Why?

Nate Silver: Hafner, and I screwed that one up in the Top 50.

by Jay on May 22, 2007 11:15 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Called it.

by afh4 on May 22, 2007 11:41 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

ha, i remember how upset you were about that... awesome.

ALSO!

by Brick. on May 22, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

What a terrible idea. Data shows that a league average starter (read: Papelbon) is more valuable than a lights out closer (again, read: Papelbon). So if that's true, how moronic would it be to convert a guy to closer who has the potential to be an above average starter? It makes no sense!

Just because Charlie Manuel was a former manager of ours does not mean we should follow any retarded example he sets by foolishly making closers out of starters who have the potential to be aces.

by Joe. on May 22, 2007 11:24 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

So, the baseball prospectus guys have changed their tune a little bit as to whether a player can ever have more value as a closer then as a starter. Check out this (pay) article by Silver on the Papelbon situation at the beginning of the season...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5471.

He does some calculations and argues that:

"we find that a 2.00 ERA closer is roughly as valuable as a 3.69 ERA, 200-inning starting pitcher."

So, if Miller=Papelbon, think hard about making him a closer. But obviously there's no way of knowing if that's true.

by keithforest on May 22, 2007 11:50 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

I still don't like the idea. You have a guy who's had arm problems, who's been on strict pitch counts his entire pro career, and has never pitched in relief, and you make him a closer on the major-league level, where he'd be pitching in pressure situations 3-4 times a week? I'd like to think the Indians figured this out with Fausto Carmona.

This should be a last resort type of move, and the Indians aren't close to that right now.

by Ryan on May 22, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Hmmm...as long as we're talking, are there any FA closers/elite setups coming up this year?
link

Snap. Joe Nathan and John Smoltz. Obviously Smoltz is starting again and is probably not leaving Atlanta.

Nathan has been less awesome this year but still, awesome. He's going to cost a lot.

Mo Rivera, no thanks.

Jake Westbrook, no longer a free agent. Grin.

Isringhausen, gross.

Wickman, hhahah.

Scott Linebrink, vague possibility.

Probably going to see a lot of retirements of guys who've been playing for as long as I can remember-Kenny Rogers, Smoltz, Wickman, Schilling, Randy Johnson, Vizquel, Pudge, and Jeff Kent. All of them could retire-will probably end up being a pretty ridiculous hall of fame class for this coming offseason or the next one. A bunch of them are going out soon.

by afh4 on May 22, 2007 12:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

I think Vizquel has a couple of years left in him. Plus, although I personally think he's a HOF, one or two more years to pad his stats probably wouldn't hurt. Plus, playing in the NL has helped his chances dramatically. We saw how great he was for such a long time, but I don't know that the rest of the country feels the same way about him - or at least I don't know if they feel as strongly about him.

Dominating both LGT Fantasy Baseball Leagues.

by mjmarble on May 22, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think that's possible; I just seen recently on

ESPN that Omar has around 2,500 hits - if he can maintain his current production for another 2-3 years after 2007 (a possibility, though not a certainty,) Omar could have 3,000 hits - if he does that, I'd think he'd have a very good shot into going into the HOF (as an Indian! :-)

So yes, I think Omar will still be around for a few more years - he seems to be in great physical shape and still has a decent bat.

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on May 22, 2007 4:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: I think that's possible; I just seen recently

Actually, Omar and 3k hits were pretty much what I was thinking. I honestly hope he makes it just to simply make it a no-brainer when it comes time to vote for him.

Dominating both LGT Fantasy Baseball Leagues.

by mjmarble on May 22, 2007 5:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1 - agreed! :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on May 22, 2007 5:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Just checking, but you think Wickman and Rogers will get HoF consideration? I think that's a stretch.

I expect Schilling to pitch at least one more year, Randy just signed an extension through 2008. Kent has a few more years in him at 39. Omar has been talking about 2-3 more years. And Pudge really isn't ancient yet, he's only 35. He seems older since he came up at 19.

I'd be surprised if more than 1 or 2 retire after this year.

by talonk on May 22, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

It was just a combined thought-there are a lot of old players and of them a bunch that will get HOF consideration.

by afh4 on May 22, 2007 6:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

we find that a 2.00 ERA closer is roughly as valuable as a 3.69 ERA, 200-inning starting pitcher

I've been mulling over this one for awhile. I'm sure that somewhere, somebody's done the statistical evaluation for the entire league that shows that this is true. But I'm Indian-centric and I wonder if we would have had a better record in 2006 if we would have traded CC (ERA 3.22 12-11) for Francisco Rodriquez (1.73 47 saves)

I guess the value of a closer all depends on who you're replacing. Same with the starter. If you don't have a closer - like the 2006 Indians with a total of 24 saves - and can add a stud like Rodriquez - that guy looks awful valuable to me. If you replace CC with Sowers 2007 - I don't know. And interesting hypothetical no?

Sometimes you just gotta be gritty

by mauichuck on May 22, 2007 8:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Adam Miller a closer? I certainly hope not. I guess I just value SP over closers - especially prospects who project as front of the rotation guys.

Dominating both LGT Fantasy Baseball Leagues.

by mjmarble on May 22, 2007 12:20 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

I think Adam Miller as a closer is a fantastic idea. I really have my hopes up for this situation. I've been advocating it for a while. I wouldn't want to see him be a closer long-term, but just for this sept/oct. Just like Wainwright. Then he can go back to being a starter in 08.

Call me crazy, but I really hope they don't bring Miller up as a starter this year for this particular reason.

Here is a quick list of my reasoning.

Borowski's schtick won't fly in the postseason.
Miller's innings will need to be limited, so he cannot help the team as a starter down the stretch, but he could as a reliever.
You really want some gas from the pen. The veteran teams (redsox, yankees) all have problems with the big heat.

Yeah, Carmona blew up (though I still think it was good they tried), but that was just one data point. Carmona doesn't seem any worse for the wear, so they did not lose anything trying.

Try Miller in the pen in aug/sept in minor roles, if it isn't looking great, no problem, he starts next year. But if he is "getting his Papelbon on" look out AL!

by oxforddave on May 22, 2007 12:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

The Carmona/Miller comparison would be more valid but for the medical records. Carmona is bigger-bodied, throws fewer breaking balls, and has a pretty clean hospital bill. Miller was a candidate for TJ surgery and has already lost some of his innate velocity. Given Miller's projected value, the risk-reward analysis really doesn't hold up. If he's got a few dozen innings left in September, I think they're better used in a few spot starts to get him some MLB reps and rest our rotation than by bringing him out of the pen.

I concur, however, that you'd like a fireballer or two in the pen in the post-season, as heat has been shown to positively correlate with post-season pitching success. (Worked for the Tigers; then again, it worked for them all of last year, too.) But I can't justify using a #1 prospect in the role just months before his rookie season.

by fleerdon on May 22, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

You and Jay are correct. If they are worried about his physical ability to handle it, don't do it. But right now, I don't see his health as a showstopper.

Miller is the only bullpen savior I can envision as of this moment. But maybe that is because you can dream on prospects, reality is likley to be different.

by oxforddave on May 22, 2007 12:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

what's miller's make-up? would he ankiel or carmona if he failed in the situation. i kinda like the possibility of the wainright paradigm.

by Brick. on May 22, 2007 12:26 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Ankiel is a special, special case. While there's little doubt he was totally rattled, Carmona stayed around the plate and got creamed in his meltdowns. Watch clips of Ankiel on Youtube sometime; dude was unable to pitch. The big difference, of course, is that Carmona revived his abilities and Ankiel never recovered.

by homelytourist on May 22, 2007 12:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

I got in a big fight last year when Carmona broke down and a few posters started bringing up Ankiel. I felt pretty strongly about it then and still do that there is no pitcher comparable to Ankiel since Ankiel.

Time has shown that I was right, lucky for us.

by afh4 on May 22, 2007 12:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

If there were a meltdown scale for pitchers similar to what we use for hurricanes and tornados, Ankiel would be a level 5 disaster. Carmona's bad week is certainly up there, but it wasn't a level 5.

by homelytourist on May 22, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

I remember that, there were bloody noses and everything.

-Erik

by drerikbrady on May 22, 2007 3:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Brick killed a guy!

by homelytourist on May 22, 2007 5:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Okay ... I am guilty of enjoying this way too much ... but here's some classic Game Threads on the subject of Carmona being ruined ...

by Jay on May 22, 2007 7:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

"I am guilty of enjoying this way too much"

That feeling is called "gloating." It's well deserved by the way.

by portlandtribefan on May 22, 2007 7:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Trying not to gloat, but I have to admit, I was pretty sure I was right about Carmona at the time.

You were a total class act about it.

by Jay on May 23, 2007 12:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Gotta love that search function.

Sometimes you just gotta be gritty

by mauichuck on May 22, 2007 7:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

funny, before my time, but fun to read. i was actually at that sept 9 game and remember a lot of that stuff...

by Brick. on May 22, 2007 7:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

I guess one question to ask is, if the Tribe able to progress towards the postseason with:

-Westbrook himself
-Carmona performing well
-Sabathia, Byrd staying consistent
-Lee having a typical year
-Sowers in AAA
-Miller lighting up AAA

How does the Tribe make use of Miller and Sowers at end of the year if there isn't room in the rotation?

by haymister on May 22, 2007 12:51 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Don't worry, somebody on that list will be on the DL again before it's over. There'll be opportunities for either Sowers or Miller.

Sometimes you just gotta be gritty

by mauichuck on May 22, 2007 1:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

by mauichuck on May 22, 2007 5:49 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Adam Miller...closer?

Nate distinctly did not answer the question "Who should the long-term closer be for the tribe." There's a decent chance he meant this year only, and there's a huge difference between the two.

by Thommy on May 22, 2007 6:22 PM EDT 0 recs