Upcoming Draft

by mcrose on May 24, 2007 12:58 PM EDT

We're getting pretty close to the draft, and it will be an unusual one for the Tribe in that they have FA'd themselves out of their second, third and fourth round picks. The only reason they retained their first round pick is because the top 15 are protected. Hence, we still get a pretty good pick at #13.

Given that scenario, they will be effectively betting more on that sole high pick than in previous years, as they not be able to spread any risk around until later rounds. The trend in recent drafts for Mirabelli is to go safe anyhow, but I truly hope that's not the case this year, and the fact that Jason Davis was traded for a raw yet high-ceiling 18 yr old may be an indication that the brass have decided they have enough mid range talent thruout the system, and that the time has come to take a few bigger swings with younger talent.

This draft actually sets up pretty well for that, as the college ranks are pretty thin, while there is a good pool of high end prep prospects that should be available from picks 10-20. My initial reflex is to go with a big righthanded arm, which is well represented in the prep ranks. In fact, I believe the BA mock draft has us taking Blake Beaven, a big powerful righty who is their amateur player of the year for '06, but there are others who will likely be available as well, including Michael Main, Matt Harvey and Phillipe Aumont, who are all upper 90's studs.

However, the one guy I hope falls to us is Justin Heyward, a 6'4 OF from Georgia who has perhaps the highest ceiling in the draft for being a middle of the order run producer. He is known for a combo of huge raw power and patience at the plate, and is at least avg in all other tools. He's my pick at #13. If he's already taken, I'd go with one of the big prep righties.

Thoughts? Predictions?

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Re: Upcoming Draft

However, the one guy I hope falls to us is Justin Heyward, a 6'4 OF from Georgia who has perhaps the highest ceiling in the draft for being a middle of the order run producer.

Sounds like a Braves pick to me, but they do pick one before Atlanta. I do think a high school player makes sense given the way this year's talent pool is weighted.

by Ryan on May 24, 2007 1:23 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

Isn't he the lead singer for the Moody Blues?

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on May 30, 2007 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

Ach! It's his son, Jason.

by mcrose on May 30, 2007 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

Related to your comments mcrose, the Indians sole high pick also gives them the opportunity to go after a guy who's draft position has slipped because of high signing demands. Or alternatively, invest the usual draft money into international signings.

by APV on May 24, 2007 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

excellent point.

by hans on May 24, 2007 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

Rick Porcello is the highest rated prep pitcher and I believe he's a Boras client, so he may fall some. But I think if there are signability concerns in the top ten or so, they'd still apply to the Indians. In other words, if they have only one pick out of the first 100, they won't take on the added risk of not being able to sign the guy. Just my take.

by mcrose on May 24, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

The new draft rules may force Boras' hands;

plus the fact that the Indians would have more resources due to the fact they have fewer draft picks, might allow them to take Porcello if they truly believe he is the best value at #13. After all, it didn't stop them from taking Jeremy Guthrie at #22 (I think,) so I think if Porcello is the highest-rated player left at #13, chances are, I'd think the Indians would take him, as they probably would feel that they could sign him, especially since Boras' leverage shouldn't be as great now with the new draft rules.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on May 24, 2007 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

We actually have our fourth round pick for whatever that is worth.

We must have made the Mets ecstatic when we signed Hernandez. They are getting essentially the same thing that Oakland is getting for Zito for a 40 something middle reliever. Mets gets 42nd and 78th pick and Oakland gets 41st and 75th pick.

by cel13 on May 24, 2007 4:21 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

I doubt anybody gets estatic about a 42 and 78. Obviously, you'd rather have them or not but the compensation system isn't exactly anything to click your heels over.

I'd be interested to see the players drafted in compensation's eventual value vs. the FA signees' value. I wonder how skewed it is.

by afh4 on May 24, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

Related....the Indians signed 2006 48th round pick Travis Turek. Turek's a young RHP who was initially signed by the Indians as a high-school flyer pick in 2005 (44th round). The changes in the new CBA makes this the last season teams will be able to sign these kind of draft-and-follow guys.

by APV on May 25, 2007 9:15 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

The trend in recent drafts for Mirabelli is to go safe anyhow

Nice post, mcrose. Can you explain how you figure the above statement? I don't necessarily disagree, I'm just not sure how you arrived there.

Possibly unrelated to your point, there is a pretty strong argument in favor of drafting players who are closest to the majors in early rounds, based not just on risk but also comparing the value of a guy who arrives in 2010 with a guy who arrives in 2012.

While the Indians were rebuilding (2002-2004), there was a strong case for drafting get-here-quick guys -- Guthrie, Sowers, even Garko -- because "quick" for baseball draftees means 2-4 years. Now that we're already contending, you could argue the case shifts a bit back to the long-term high-ceiling guys.

by Jay on May 25, 2007 10:07 AM EDT reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

I think he meant the Sowers, Crowe, and Sowers 2.0 err Huff picks. All college guys with low ceilings that the Indians picked in the last 3 years in the first couple rounds.

by Joe. on May 25, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

As far as having a "safe" philosophy, my comment is based mostly on track record - as you said, recent drafts from 2002 on have targeted "get here quick" guys who were pretty polished and could help the ML club sooner rather than later.

There was also probably a systemic reaction to high HS draft picks such as Denham, Dittler, Foley, etc. and Conroy, Shilling and Corey Smith that didn't really pan out.

It's easy to see why this has been so - the above HS picks, the fact of rebuilding, the bringing to bear of statistical tools which work better for college guys, etc. I really have no argument with it, as it has "worked" to greatly increase the volume of talent on the farm.

Even so, they seem to have a predilection for drafting some "solid not great" college guys far ahead of when they could have been grabbed. Herrera, Davis, Rodriguez, even Garko (off the top of my head) were all drafted in the first three rounds and would have been available later.

But that's a bit of nitpicking - my main point is that the team is done rebuilding, the farm system is strong, there is a backlog at many positions, and this allows a little more risk in the draft - to spend a greater percentage of high picks on younger, higher ceiling talent. The penalty for them not panning out is much less than it has been for quite some time, and of course, the reward for such picks, almost by definition, can be great. I'm hoping they change their draft priority list accordingly.

by mcrose on May 27, 2007 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Thoughts on our draft philosophy!

Hello everyone,

Jay - I think how mcrose came to that (at least according to my way of thinking) is more like JRam is suggesting - picking the safer, lower-ceiling, college picks like Sowers, Crowe, Huff, Guthrie (he had a decent ceiling, but not as high as others,) etc. over the last several drafts.

This seems to be the philosophy after the 2001 Draft where HS picks like Dan Denham, J.D. Martin, Travis Foley, Jake Dittler, Mike Conroy, etc. failed to pan out to this point (and it's still questionable whether Dittler and/or Martin will develop into useful or quality MLers. Speaking of which, sdtribefan on MinorLeagueBall reports that Martin was taken out of yesterday's game due to elbow soreness - you can see his post here.)

However, you bring up a good point about how the Indians were back in 2001 in terms of contention - at that time, they were still contending. By the time the 2002 Draft came around, the Indians had already fallen out of 1st place and were looking to have a fire sale (Colon was traded on June 27, about 2.5-3 weeks after the 2002 Draft.) So that might have influenced why more college picks have been selected with our 1st-Rd. picks from that point (2002 onward,) to help us get back to respectability quicker, even though, for the most part, they really have not done that - Guthrie (2002) never developed for us, Aubrey's (2003) been injured, and Sowers (2004) is still adapting to the MLs.

But like you said, I could see the Indians going back to higher-ceiling, higher-risk HS picks for two main reasons:

As you mentioned, because we're contending again and our farm system has some nice quality depth in it to keep us contending for the next few to several years.
From what I've heard, the Draft has more quality HS pitchers and HS talent than college talent (especially on the pitchers' side,) and the Indians' Draft philosophy in the past has always been to take players that make up the strength of the draft, so I would think that our 2007 1st-Rd. pick has a pretty good chance of being a HS pick this time around, especially a HS pitcher.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on May 26, 2007 10:17 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Upcoming Draft

Castrovince has a bit of a preview of the Tribe's thinking going into the draft:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070527&content_id=1990101&vkey=draft2007&fext= .jsp

Mirabelli seems to feel that the strength of the draft is prep position players, and says they've been "heavily involved" in scouting prep players this spring.

by mcrose on May 29, 2007 1:05 PM EDT reply actions