Trade Lee

by world dictator on Jun 23, 2007 6:40 PM EDT

I'd say its well worth it. As Gammon notes pitching is at a premium and I think we can get a lot for Lee even with him having a bad half.

I bet we could get Griffey for Cliff Lee, assuming he has a few decent starts between now and then, and FGutz and a low level prospect.

This trade would give us a rotation of...

CC
Carmona
Westbrook
Byrd
Sowers/Miller/Stanford

And a lineup of

1.Grady
2.J-Barf
3.Griffey
4.Victor
5.Hafner
6.Jhonny
7.Blake
8.Garko
9. Michaels/Fransico

With Jbarf and Michaels/Fransico switching between the 2 hole and the 9 hole.

That looks like an upgrade well worth making to me.

0 recs | Comment 42 comments

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Re: Trade Lee

Mark Shapiro doesn't trade major leaguers for major leaguers. It's a pretty good track record.

Griffey is good, but he hasn't had 500 at-bats in 7 years. Seven years. He's 37, and he's having his first healthy season in almost a decade. I guess I'm just not as high on him as everyone else is.

by nickjs21 on Jun 23, 2007 11:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

We've only been in a playoff hunt once since Shapario's been here. I think this year is different as far as trading major leaguers for major leaguers. Maybe not Lee but someone.
After reading Peter Gammon's latest article I actually think this is a bit much consider Lee's youth, the years he's under control, and the extra high premium being placed on pitchers this year. Not to mention facts you pointed out such as Griffey's age and contract. However if the Reds picked up a decent chunk of his contract then I think it becomes more interesting. But I think that a package built around Lee, or even Byrd, could fetch a big return at the cost of minimal depth loss.

by world dictator on Jun 24, 2007 12:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

I agree we should trade Lee but I highly doubt he is worth Griffey. Secondly if we traded him I would like to see a pitching prospect back in return. Maybe a grade A or B prospect at the low levels. Since we are likely to lose C.C to free agency we should also look at trading Westbrook for more prospect level pitching.

Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher campaign.

by E5 on Jun 24, 2007 1:12 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Since we are likely to lose C.C to free agency we should also look at trading Westbrook for more prospect level pitching.

Could you please elaborate on this? Why would the Indians trade a guy they just extended for any purpose whatsoever, never mind for a prospect who could, if everything falls into place, be a league-average starter?

by Ryan on Jun 24, 2007 2:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

The Indians wouldn't do it but I would. I would trade Westbrook because he is known innings eater but his ceiling has been reached. Once you find a players ceiling you have a few options. Since Westbrook's ceiling is a mediocre inning eater I would like to see us use him as trade bait to a team in need of his services. Perhaps the Yankees would like him as their number 5 or any number of other teams. With a prospect at least one I would look for he would have a far greater ceiling potential. When you are trading major league talent for prospects you can reach a little more for potential. However once a player has reached his potential you can not trade for major league talent above said player. Meaning with major league trades it is more 1 for 1 where as with minor league trade you might have a 1 for 3 the only catch would be you would have to wait on the 3 talent. At this point the Indians would be wise to look for more 1 for 3 potential trades because their window of opportunity is closing with the impending free agents we have. Secondly we seem to have proven that we can sustain our current level of play without his services so his loss in a trade would not seem to hurt our current chances for making the playoffs.

Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher campaign.

by E5 on Jun 24, 2007 2:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Okay, so after the last couple of your posts, you are propsing to trade Vic, and now Westbrook in the heat of a pennant race? Are you sure you aren't a Tigers fan in disguise? If we trade both those guys, we may as well kiss our chances this year and next goodbye.

Losing CC and Hafner the year after that would leave us extremely young. So adding to your theme, you want us to have a team that looks like this in 2009:

C-Shoppach (hitting 4th I presume?), 1B-Garko, 2B-Barfield, 3B-Marte? or do you want Blake to stay there?, SS-Peralta, Lf-Dutz, CF-Grady, RF-Francisco maybe? DH-??? (remember you dealt Vic already)

SP-Whoever we got for Vic, Adam miller, Carmona, Lee/Sowers/Lofgren

That sound right?

by talonk on Jun 24, 2007 3:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Yea that is about right but the batting order would be as follows

Barfield 2b
Blake 3b
Sizemore CF
Acquired RF or LF
Garko 1B
Peralta SS
Marte DH
Shoppach C
Gutiérrez LF or RF

Sower would be not in the rotation
It would be my Acquire Sp, A. Miller, Carmona, FA, Byrd

Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher campaign.

by E5 on Jun 24, 2007 3:20 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

I want to know what RF/LF you are going to try and trade for that is this magical power bat.

Also, Blake will be long gone as aFA by 2009. So we are going to need anothe bat to DH, assuming Marte lands at 3B. Also Byrd is long gone by 2009 as well.

That is a lot of holes you are proposing ... just saying.

by talonk on Jun 24, 2007 3:23 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

E5...snap out of it, man! What do you want - the '06 Marlins?

by Scott on Jun 24, 2007 3:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

That is also two years away in which many things can happen. Secondly lets us only have this conversation on here for the sake of everyone. As I mentioned on the other thread it might be possible to acquire Jason Bay from Pittsburgh with the right package of prospects.

Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher campaign.

by E5 on Jun 24, 2007 3:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

This is Jason Bays current contract

signed 4-year deal worth 18.25M thru 2009 season on 11/17/05- + he receives a 1M signing bonus and salaries of 750K in 2006, 3.25M in 2007, 5.75M in 2008 and 7.5M in 2009- + his 2009 salary could rise by up to 750K (to 8.25M) due to incentives and escalators based on PA and being an All-Star, an MVP, a Gold Glove or a Silver Slugger award winner in previous seasons- + he can earn 750K in performance and award bonuses over the life of the deal: 25K for All-Star selection, 100K for NL MVP, 75K for 2nd place MVP finish, 50K for 3rd place MVP finish, 50K for WS MVP and 25K for Gold Glove- + 2005 salary: 355K
Agent: Joe Urbon

Source http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=719
Not an bad contract and we would control him for the next two years. I could see the Pirates willing to trade him because his salary increase fairly largely after this season.

Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher campaign.

by E5 on Jun 24, 2007 3:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Why would you ever want to trade Lee,Westbrook and Victor? Trading anyone of them is risky but all three of them? And victor? Why the hell would we do that?

Also I hope youre not trading all three of these guys for prospects? Why would we blow up our team just as we're ready to contend?

by world dictator on Jun 24, 2007 8:39 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Hey you forgot about AstroCab. He's your SS, move Marte to third where he belongs and let Blake go - easy.

Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 24, 2007 8:37 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

You talk about trading mediocre players who have reached the ceiling and yet you want to keep Byrd, Blake and Shoppach? If you are going to be delusional at least be consistent. Byrd is old, Blake is solid but not getting younger and Shoppach is the poster child for small sample size. Your far-reaching trade proposals and suggestions that we rid ourselves our best players are laughable. [None of this should be read as an indictment of Blake, Byrd or Shoppach]

(If you have suffered a blow to the head and this post is the result of an impaired thought process as a result I sincerely apologize).

Cleveland: It's like punching yourself in the face.

by fwembt on Jun 24, 2007 11:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Since Westbrook's ceiling is a mediocre inning eater I would like to see us use him as trade bait to a team in need of his services.

You're acting like there's something wrong with a mediocre* innings eater. Of course his ceiling has been reached, but that doesn't mean that he's bad. He is what he is, and that's pretty valuable in today's environment. And you as much admitted his value in expecting back "high ceiling" prospects. Westbrook himself was once one of those top prospects himself (drafted in the first round out of high school, traded several times in high-profile deals, etc).

He also committed to the Indians for a long-term contract, something that generally hasn't happened with Cleveland Indians past their free agency years. From a player-relation standpoint, it would be absolutely devastating. In other words, dealing Westbrook has little basis in reality. It's simply not going to happen.

*As an aside, the word itself orginally came from the Latin word mediocris, which means "middle state," in other words, "average." We've knocked that definition down in modern times to mean "poor" or "inferior."

by Ryan on Jun 24, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

I'm sure you know this but I'll reinforce your point anyway. A mediocre starter is actually quite an asset.

by Joe. on Jun 24, 2007 1:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Where else are the Reds going to get a 28 year old consistent 15 game winner under contract for 2 more years at about 5 million? I actually think Lee could fetch a lot more in return the more I think about it.

by world dictator on Jun 24, 2007 8:42 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

What fi they realize he sucks? Other than Bailey (obviously out of the qurstion), who could we get from them that is any good anyway.

by Joe. on Jun 24, 2007 2:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Cliff Lee sucks? News to me

by world dictator on Jun 24, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

He sucks. Flyball pitcher, moderately high walk rates, diminishing k rates. He has declined every year.

by Joe. on Jun 24, 2007 3:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

If you think that a 28 yr old pitcher thats won at least 14 games the last three seasons, has a career ERA of 4.47. and is signed for 2 more years at 5 mil each isn't a hot commodity around the league you're out of your mind.Period. Can you tell me the playoff team or out of the playoffs team looking for pitching who wouldn't take that?

In any year pitching is high in demand but this year theres an especially high demand. If you're looking to trade for a pitcher who would you rather get?

by world dictator on Jun 24, 2007 4:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

4.47 ERA is not good. In fact, it's below average. And the peripherals aren't good.

by Joe. on Jun 24, 2007 5:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Actually the league avg is 5.36 but whateves.

who would you trade for instead considering talent,price, and contract length?

by world dictator on Jun 24, 2007 6:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think Lee would be the likeliest Indians pitcher

to be traded at some point down the road, but unless we're bowled over with an offer in the next month or so, I can't see where the Indians would trade Lee now, not especially with Sowers struggling, Miller and Slocum both injured, Laffey having minimal AAA experience (though doing very well, I might add,) and Minor League veterans like Jeff Harris and Eric DuBose being essentially our first line of "defense" behind our current 5.

While I too think Lee could be trade bait at some point, I don't think now's the time to do it. This offseason, and even more so, next year and even the 2008 offseason would be likelier times for the Indians to trade Lee unless someone really wants him and is willing to pay a HIGH price for him, and chances are, that likely won't happen at this point. Not to mention the fact that Lee just signed his new extension just about a year ago, so trading him now would also not help the Indians' PR in regards to signing future FAs, so there's probably a 99.99% chance Lee won't be traded during this season.

Just my 2 cents. :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Jun 24, 2007 6:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Where are you getting that the AL league average ERA is 5.36? I went to espn.com and it says 4.44.

I'm not sure what you do with Lee right now. Over 2005 and 2006, he provided 400 innings (more or less) and a 104 ERA+ if I'm averaging the baseball-reference.com statistic appropriately.

Granted, that was a 106 ERA+ in 2005 and 102 ERA+ in 2006 and he's trending far worse in 2007; but I don't know how much of an asterisk you give him with the strained abdominal. If the curveball he had against Philly can be sustained then things are looking up.

by cheech99 on Jun 24, 2007 6:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

You really think the Pirates would trade their sole young masher just because his salary increases to a still fantastic 5.75 next year? Absurd.

by Joe. on Jun 24, 2007 4:26 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

This whole thread is absurd. I can see trading a starter. But not 2, along with Victor.

"The hibachi is coming to a city near you. I'm cooking chicken and shrimp, but if you want to throw a double team my way, filet mignon gets cooked too"

by Rayman on Jun 24, 2007 12:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Well the thing is, you can only trade a player that other teams want. Lee hasn't done anything this season to make teams want him. If he is to be traded it would be when his stock is high. And even then I highly doubt Cincinnati would trade Griffey Jr. Though it would be really cool to see Griffey on the Indians.

by Wild Thing on Jun 25, 2007 11:58 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

hasn't done anything this season to make teams want him.

Lee's left-handed, has a decent track record, and no history of arm problems. Plenty of teams want him.

by Ryan on Jun 25, 2007 12:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

furthermore, if he was throwing shutouts every week, the indians wouldn't trade him anyway. so many things have to match up for two teams to make a real (read: not fantasy baseball) trade.

by Brick. on Jun 25, 2007 2:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

This is a good point, off the top of my head I can remember at least a few pitchers being delt at the deadline with bad first halfs to the year (David Wells, Jon Lieber, etc.)

by hans on Jun 25, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Mike Maroth, 5.02 ERA.

by nickjs21 on Jun 25, 2007 4:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Leo Mazzone would love to have Cliffie.

by BoDiaz1974 on Jun 25, 2007 5:18 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

I dont know why I didnt think of this before but Stanford is a good trading chip too. I'm not trying to throw him out the door, im not trying to throw anyone out the door really, but if we're going to trade for bullpen help/the front office thinks we have other options in AAA, ie Muijica , then it would make sense to trade him.

I think a Stanford, Gutz, and a decent pitching prospect could fetch an interesting player

by world dictator on Jun 25, 2007 8:26 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

I don't see the Reds trading for Lee. An extreme flyball pitcher in a bandbox park is a bad combination. He'd probably have to make 2-3 starts in Wrigley, too.

by CaptainEasy on Jun 25, 2007 9:14 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Extreme fly ball pitcher in bandbox park: see Milton, Eric.

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jun 26, 2007 2:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Yeah, you can pretty much bank that one.

by Jay on Jun 26, 2007 7:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

Reds might be willing to take Westbrook and some prospects for Griffey.

Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher campaign.

by E5 on Jun 26, 2007 10:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

That is a completely, incredibly, terribly, horribly, lopsided trade.

by afh4 on Jun 26, 2007 11:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

I think Westbrook would become a more then average pitcher in the NL with the pitcher hitting and being a sinker ball pitchers in that park with infield defense the reds have. Remember that Arroyo was much better with the Reds then he was with the Red Sox.

Champion of the Kelly Shoppach for Catcher campaign.

by E5 on Jun 26, 2007 11:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

For the Indians.

by afh4 on Jun 26, 2007 11:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Trade Lee

This is a three-step plan:

Extend veteran's contract by three years.
Trade veteran just a few months later.
Good luck convincing any other veteran to sign a contract extension, ever again.

by Jay on Jun 27, 2007 12:08 AM EDT up 0 recs