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Scoreboard watching

As far as I am concerned, it is never to early to scoreboard watch. But sometimes I get confused on which teams to root for (or, more importantly, against). For instance, if the Yankees are playing the Twins, who do we want to win to improve the Tribe's chance of making the playoffs?

Luckily, the postseason odds at baseball prospectus
give us some insight. Using them, I have created this handy dandy list, that can be referred to as necessary. As we want the tribe to make the playoffs, this list is in descending order on who we wish to lose the most.

Tigers
Yankees
Twins
A's
Mariners
Angels
Red Sox
Blue Jays

For instance, the A's are about to play the Yankees. In this series, we want the A's to win as they are lower ranked than the Yankees. Note that the White Sox have been so bad, they are not even on the list anymore! (The Red Sox and Blue Jays are barely on the list, and probably can be ignored).  

Finally, as the standings change, the list changes, and I will update it periodically.

0 recs | Comment 20 comments

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Re: Scoreboard watching
The A's have a better W-L record than the Yankees.

So, how does that help?  

I'd rather go by the actual standings than odds, imho.

by emd2k3 on Jun 28, 2007 9:24 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
Well, even leaving projections out of it, one thing the Playoff Odds report takes into account is which teams are playing which teams, and how many times, and the millions of ways in which that affects who can actually win how many games.

For example, when the Tigers play the Yankees, both teams can't win that day, which helps our odds, so the question is, how many times will that actually happen?  The standings don't tell you that; they "assume" that any team could run the table.

by Jay on Jun 29, 2007 12:14 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
You always - always root against the Yankees.  While the other teams would merely edge the Indians out of a play-off spot, the Yankees are trying to destroy baseball as we know it.  

Otherwise, I'm in full agreement with your rankings.

Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 28, 2007 9:50 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
You have to root against the Tigers and you have to root against the Yankees (mainly for historical reasons).  BUT, the team that currently is most threatening the Indians' playoff hopes (especially after we took 3 of 4 from Oakland), surprisingly, is the Mariners, only one game behind the tribe in the loss column, and playing much better than anyone anticipated.  I'm not sure why BP's postseason odds don't rank them higher.

I would love to root against the Yankees reflexively, without really worrying about them, knowing they are not really a threat.  In fact I am starting to do that, just takes a little getting used to.

by plato on Jun 28, 2007 10:53 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
COMPUTER ALERT

The Mariners are leading the American League (and second overall only behind Arizona) in win deltas according to BP's adjusted standings. I'm imagining they might come back down to Earth.

/COMPUTER ALERT

by CarnegieAndOntario on Jun 28, 2007 11:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
I have no fear of the Mariners.  Not only have they played over their heads, but Bavasi still has 34 days to make a trade that kills the team's playoff chances.  Maybe he'll decide to platoon Broussard with Nixon.

by Jay on Jun 29, 2007 12:12 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
"There's nothing to be afraid of here Donny.  These men are nihilists."

by APV on Jun 29, 2007 1:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
On last night on WGN.  
While Walter's rants don't have the same effectiveness on Network TV, it was nicely timed with the day game.

by The DiaTriber on Jun 29, 2007 10:13 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
You mean, "This is what happens when you meet a stranger in the Alps" doesn't carry the same message?

by APV on Jun 29, 2007 10:32 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
APV, if you decide that you're going to the Tuesday Detroit game, send me an e-mail.

Dave

by dgcambridge on Jun 29, 2007 1:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
My car's going into the shop tomorrow with a bum transmission, so I'm probably out.

by APV on Jul 1, 2007 5:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
No.  His thoughts on rolling during Shabbas (sp?) lose a bit of their luster too.

by The DiaTriber on Jun 29, 2007 4:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
Actually, you could make the argument that the Indians are playing over their heads too.  I think I heard Hammy make that claim the other day, and I tend to agree.  
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 29, 2007 7:10 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
Why?

You don't think we were underperforming last year?  

The only thing I could think of is the couple of games we have over Pythagoras.

by nickjs21 on Jun 29, 2007 7:37 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
Oh yeah, last year we underperformed our Pythagoras projection - no doubt - mostly due to our horrendous bullpen.

It's hard to evaluate a team's collective competitiveness by looking at the team as a collection of individuals.  If I look at the rooster player by player I guess I'd put Hafner, Nixon, Marte, Sowers and Delucci as underperformers and Peralta, Marinez, CC, Casey, Byrd, Michaels, Shoppach and Betancourt as outperforming my expectations.  Grady, Westbrook, Lee, Barfield, and Garko are performance neutral IMO.  

The Pythagoras thing is useful when you look at how teams collectively performed.  I think it's very limited when you look at a particular team in a particular year.  Last year the Indians grossly underperformed their Pythagoras projection.  I think that this is the result of their incredibly poor relief pitching and yes clutch hitting.

Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 29, 2007 8:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
So, you expected Westbrook to be injured and have a 1-3 record with a 7.08 ERA?  We have vastly different opinions of him...

by Fundamentals on Jun 29, 2007 8:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
Yeah, you caught me.  I took about 5 minutes to do my in-depth analysis - so I missed one.  But the last time I saw him pitch he looked like last year's version of Westbrook.  And, oh yeah, Carmona is pitching better than I thought he would.  I don't know what the hell to make of Fultz and Oldberto and Mastny and Mujica et al, but the BP overall is a little better than I hoped for.  

I guess the bottom line is this: I didn't expect last year's fourth place club to be up around first place half way through the season.  A very pleasant suprise.

Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 29, 2007 9:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
There is some overperformance in the record, but I think we're a neutral-performing team considering Hafner and Westbrook's performances -- not to mention Nixon's.

by Jay on Jun 29, 2007 8:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
The post season odds that I linked to also includes the teams PECOTA projection. As the season progresses, this year's performance (judged through their raw stats and not the vagaries of clutchness) takes more and more weight. In Seattle's case, they did not have a great team going in, they haven't performed that great (besides W-L), so their projection is not so good. In contrast, the Yankees had a great team to start the season, their raw performance (besides W-L) has been good (better than the tribe's), so they project to win many more games the second half of the season.  

by oxforddave on Jun 29, 2007 9:47 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Scoreboard watching
It's just too bad that the pay-off is based on W-L<sarc>.  It's like saying: she'd be a beautiful girl - if only she'd lose 200 pounds.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 29, 2007 9:50 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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