Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Recap
Box Score
Win Probability Added @ Fangraphs
Highest WPA:
Jason Michaels .432
Joe Borowski .168
Rafael Betancourt .124
Lowest WPA:
Jhonny Peralta -.125
Trot Nixon -.068
Mike Rouse -.062
Because Paul Byrd was able to recover from early-inning struggles to give the Indians seven innings of work, he not only saved the bullpen for future games, but kept the offense within a reasonable distance of the lead. The former accomplishment should not be underestimated, given how thin the back end of the bullpen is now.
I think Trot Nixon is done as an everyday player. Perhaps it's the regular play that's wore him down, but even if that's not the case, it's very difficult to justify giving him more playing time than Franklin Gutierrez or Jason Michaels, both of whom are much better defensively and offensively right now. He's still useful to the Indians, at least as long as David Dellucci's sidelined, but his usefulness as a starting corner outfielder has evaporated.
Cautionary stat of the day: Josh Barfield is hitting .326 in June, but he hasn't drawn a walk in over a month.
Promising stat of the day: From June 1-June 24, Travis Hafner had two extra-base hits. In the past four games, he has three.
Up Next: The Indians welcome Tampa Bay to town. Westbrook vs. Jackson, 7:05 PM
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Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Especially if/when Marte gets called back up and that moves Casey back out to RF.
He would be a better fit on a team like Tampa Bay or the 2004 Indians ...
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Want something to worry about? Worry about pitching! C.C and Fausto are the only two starters we have who could reliably put up zeros for 6 or 7 innings. Yes, Fausto had a bad start and Byrd had a QS most recently. But does anyone honestly think that a team with Paul Byrd as its number three starter is going to make the World Series? I'm not yet ready to put money on Lee and Westbrook returning to old form. Sowers is still struggling in AAA and Miller is dealing with another injury. I feel a little better about our bullpen, but not by much. Betancourt, Perez and Borowski seems stable. Everyone else is injured or a big fat question mark.
Look, our offense doesn't look like a prototypical offense. We aren't powered by poor fielding corner infielders. We don't have fast, contact hitting middle infielders setting the table. We have a CF with power, patience and speed leading off. Our catcher is our biggest offensive weapon. We get nice power out of SS. Yes, our COF production could be better. But let's get our pitching together and then worry about the offense.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Second, yes a team can win the world series with a guy like Paul Byrd as the number 3. Why not? Everyone loves to say "How can you expect to win a world series without incredible #3 starter/power corner OF/whatever it is that person wants to be acquired." You do it the way anybody does it-by getting hot and rolling through the playoffs.
The Cardinals did it with Jeff Suppan. The Diamondbacks once did it with Albie Lopez. Boston's pitching was gross behind Pedro and Curt the year it won. When the Mets went to the World Series their three starter was Glendon Rusch. The last time the New York Yankees won the World Series they're pitching after Clemens was:
Petite: 4.35 ERA
Cone: 6.91 ERA
Hernandez: 4.51 ERA
Neagle: 5.81 ERA
The Indians starting pitching is better than that and it's offense is every bit as good.
So please, everyone, lay off the histrionics about "You can't win a world series with player X in your lineup/rotation." Of course you can. There's no one on the Indians anywhere near bad enough to prevent the Tribe from winning a world series all by themselves.
3-A handful of teams in the history of baseball have 3 starting pitchers that a rational person could expect to put up zeros for 6 or 7 innings. The Indians don't really have any pitchers like that. CC has 2 shutouts all year. Fausto has one.
None of this is to say the Indians shouldn't be trying to improve. Just stop with the overstatement both with the good (CC/Fausto) and the bad (what it "takes" to win a WS).
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
"A handful of teams in the history of baseball have 3 starting pitchers that a rational person could expect to put up zeros for 6 or 7 innings. The Indians don't really have any pitchers like that. CC has 2 shutouts all year. Fausto has one."
First off, I don't think any team in the history of baseball has had a single stater go a season with an ERA of 0.00. So clearly I wasn't suggesting that C.C and Fausto are going to do that. But they are the only guys who have non-shitty ERAs. I could reasonably expect only the two of them, based on their 07 track record, to keep things close against a good offense.
You don't think a #3 starter with 7.00 ERA is a little cause for worry? How about Lee at 5.62? Their track records say they'll get back down to earth. Until that happens, its entirely reasonable to conclude their performances are cause for worry.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Byrd has given up 4 runs or less in 10 of his 13 starts this year. If you want three runs or less, he's done it in 7 of 13 starts matters. If you want to create some vauge standard for "giving the team a chance to win", Byrd meets it in over half of his starts, against teams of varying offensive ability.
To put another way, my thought is that Byrd's job is to get a quality start. He's 30th in the league in quality start percentage. That's pretty damn good.
Westbrook's ERA means nothing to me. If you want to argue that he's worthless because of injury concerns, go for it. But his ERA doesn't mean anything. He's thrown 34 innings on the year. It doesn't concern me at all. Especially after his last outing.
It's the same way you're telling people that the offense is fine because Hafner should get at least somewhat better. Well, so should Jake. It's an injury, not a slump, but there's no reason he shouldn't start being Jake again. This guy is nothing if not consistent. If Jake does somehow go into the tank, well, we have a consensus top ten pitching prospect stretching himself out.
Similarly, I don't care about Cliff Lee's ERA. He's our 5 starter. I see reasons for optimism but as is he's already better than the 5 starter on a lot of teams. Off the top of my head, he's better or as good as Horacio Ramirez, Jeff Weaver, Bartolo, Maroth, and Scott Baker. Cliffy is tied for 51st in the league in QS%. Again, good and reasonable for where he slots in our rotation.
Everyone thinks their number 5 is the absolute worst. It's because they aren't forced to watch anyone else's number 5 every 5th game.
None of this is really my point though. My point is that, while Shap is certainly going to do his job and improve the team if he feels he needs to do, there's no reason this team, as constructed, can't win the world series. None of these players are giant albatrosses that are being dragged along. They're all useful pieces. Add to that Adam Miller.
So, while you're saying "You guys are crazy! The offense is great, it's the pitching that's troublesome!"
I'm saying, well, there aren't really any causes for worry. There are salient and interesting points and decisions to be made but this is a very good baseball team that's performing about as well as it should be.
Again, that's not to say I'm demanding we stand pat. Sure, explore trade scenarios, try to get better in ways that make sense, etc. But there's a lot already here-this isn't a team that has to add offense or has to add pitching.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
that top 30 list still includes names such as John Lackey, Chris Capuano, and Jason Jennings.
Lackey was being listed as a guy who was the best starter on his team despite not being a recognized "ace." Things change awful fast.
And this is what I was driving at, backed up statistically:
MLB 3.60 4.14 4.58 5.10 6.24
AL 3.70 4.24 4.58 5.09 6.22
NL 3.51 4.04 4.57 5.11 6.26
What immediately jumps out at me is how high the #4 and #5 ERAs are. If there's one thing most people agree on when they talk about rotation spots, it's that a guy with an ERA over 5.00 ought to be your #5 starter. As it turns out, fewer than half of major league teams could claim an ERA under 5.00 from their #4 spot.
Thanks for passing it along. It's an excellent read.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
that top 30 list still includes names such as John Lackey, Chris Capuano, and Jason Jennings.
Lackey was being listed as a guy who was the best starter on his team despite not being a recognized "ace." Things change awful fast.
And this is what I was driving at, backed up statistically:
Lg #1 #2 #3 #4 #5
MLB 3.60 4.14 4.58 5.10 6.24
AL 3.70 4.24 4.58 5.09 6.22
NL 3.51 4.04 4.57 5.11 6.26
What immediately jumps out at me is how high the #4 and #5 ERAs are. If there's one thing most people agree on when they talk about rotation spots, it's that a guy with an ERA over 5.00 ought to be your #5 starter. As it turns out, fewer than half of major league teams could claim an ERA under 5.00 from their #4 spot.
Thanks for passing it along. It's an excellent read.
Sorry, wanted to fix the html.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
"WTAM AM/1100, the Indians' flagship station, reported negotiations between the Indians and Travis Hafner have resumed and that Hafner could be signed within the next several weeks."
Shapiro and Hafner's agent didn't sound like they had been talking though, so maybe they are referring to chatter around the FO? Maybe they're drafting a new contract offer?
Hopefully it's true because I think that is a pretty heavy burden on Hafner's mind right now.
Link:
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
The insinuation was that the hangup wasn't over money or length of contract (like Gammons reported). But other things (I'm guessing he wants a "no-trade" clause).
I really don't want to resign Pronk, use the money to make a play for CC instead.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
by Turkmenbashi on Jun 29, 2007 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Their numbers at first look similar for age 24, but the truth is, Barfield's rookie year was better than anything Omar did until age 29, and I think he'll be back at the level and beyond fairly soon.
Interestingly, Vizquel has the better walk rate, even at a young age, which just underscores how much stronger Barfield is as an aggressive contact hitter. Keep in mind that selectivity doesn't peak until after 30, and lots of players who show great contact-hitting acumen in their early 20's develop a lot more selectivity later on.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
by Turkmenbashi on Jun 29, 2007 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I like Barf, and I can see he's athletic enough and has a quick enough bat to morph into a different offensive player over time. But he'll still need to lay off those pitches off the plate and get his obp up to respectable territory to have an extended future here. If we had traded Kouz for a 2B with Barf's current OPS, I don't think we would have been very happy at the time.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
by woodsmeister on Jun 29, 2007 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Plus Kouzmanoff has 12 errors.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I like him now for reasons that I didn't expect - his great defense, his speed and baserunning instincts, and his general athleticism and flair.
Everybody likes Josh, right? But let's face it - despite a batting avg 30 points higher than Trot Nixon, his OPS is still worse than the Trotman. That's pretty bad.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
In addition, some people seem so convinced that we should trade Peralta to make room for Asdrubal in the coming years or get ride of Marte and move Peralta to 3b. These people surprise me because it's almost as if they are oblivious to the 2b we have. It seems like a no brainer to me to replace Barfield with Cabrera in 2009.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
The standards are different for a stellar 2B, compared to a RF who is borderline immobile.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
As for Barfield though, I think it's a lot more difficult to really slam him for his offensive performance this year. It's only his second year in either league and 2b isn't typically a strong offensive position, obviously.
As long as he shows signs of improvement this season (that walk rate kind of bothers me though) and plays above average defense, I have no issue with Barfield. He's shown he has some pop in San Diego, so the extra base hits will show up again. It's too early to give a final verdict on Barfield; I'd wait until the end of the season.
I think he came in with pretty high expectations, but like I said, he's shown improvement or excelled in some areas and he is still developing as a player (unlike Nixon, who is certainly declining).
At this point, I would prefer Peralta, Barfield, and Cabrera with Marte the odd man out, but it's way too early to discuss booting one of our young infielders. Cabrera is still only in AA and Marte is still really young. Just my opinion on that.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Asdrubal is 21, putting up an 887 OPS in Double-A. And what did Marte do at 21? Put up an 878 OPS in /Triple-/A -- and yes, with excellent defense at 3B, and yes, the scouts have always loved his bat more.
Now nobody can dispute at this point that there is a legitimate question as to whether Marte has plateaued, and as to what it will take for him to take his game to a higher level. You might think that all he needs is a genuine opportunity, but you'd still have to admit that it's a legitimate question.
That said, with the bat, Asdrubal hasn't done anything, ever, yet, that Marte didn't do better, or younger, or both.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I'd propose F-Gootz as an example of this. He's seemingly rested for three years on the laurels of having solved the Florida State League at age 20. Yet just when you think he's never going to amount to much ... well, he looks pretty damned good out there, doesn't he?
Success at a young age at a high level is an almost bulletproof indicator -- or at least, it's so much better than anything else we've got re: prospect analysis that it's almost not worth looking at anything else.
Another point about Cabrera and Marte!
One other point about comparing their OPS - Cabrera's doesn't necessarily have to be higher for him to have more value than Marte because Cabrera is an excellent SS prospect, while Marte was/is an excellent 3B prospect, and as we all know, a 3B is expected to hit for higher OPS and power than a SS is.
Now, it's true that Marte was at a higher level and putting up a slightly higher OPS than Cabrera, but like others have hinted or mentioned, I too am concerned about Marte's erratic offensive performances (even now at AAA Buffalo, he's back down in the .240s offensively, at a level he's played at since he was 21 back in 2005, two years ago. By now, he should be able to hit upper-200s, if not .300 +, but he isn't, and hasn't since he went down there a month or so ago.)
I haven't given up on Marte yet, but I also have serious concerns on whether he has plateaued or not.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: Another point about Cabrera and Marte!
Re: Another point about Cabrera and Marte!
Bill James showed many years ago that young players with old player skills do not translate well to the majors, while young players with young skills do translate well. See for instance this or this interesting discussion.
Thus in a single season vaccuum, I'd be more excited by Cabrera's 21-yr old season in AA than Marte's 21-yr old season in AAA. Note that this does not put Cabrera ahead of Marte at the same age. It is only 1 (or 1/2) season of data.
Re: Another point about Cabrera and Marte!
Marte is hardly a classic Old Skills player, e.g., Paul Konerko, a defensive zero and a liability on the basepaths. I've read possibly every publicly available scouting report on Marte back to 2002. He plays a key defensive position, 3B, and has been characterized everywhere from above-average to outstanding. And even as a baserunner, the worst description you can find will say that he's a hair below average in raw speed but an above-average baserunner overall, due to his superior instincts.
Yes, really, that is what scouts have always said about Andy Marte. I've read the bullshit "scouting reports" by fans, that he's big and sluggish, and all I have to say is, they say the same things about Franklin Gutierrez, and it's bullshit about him, too.
I also don't know if a guy who has ranged from .269 to .285 in his minor league career is considered a "low batting average" kind of hitter. Those aren't any worse than Jhonny Peralta's in the minors, and they're not that much lower than Grady Sizemore's.
But even if we want to think of Marte's skills as a bit O.P.-ish, the Old Player Skills discussion isn't about prospects not developing into major leaguers, it's about established major leaguers declining more quickly once they hit age 32 or 33.
So when Shapiro signs Marte to a three-year extension, extending him through his age 32 season, supermarioella gets to write another Diary talking about how smart Shapiro is, and you get to chime in, "Yes! He's got Old Player Skills!"
But that is a discussion for 2013, not today.
Re: Another point about Cabrera and Marte!
As for the comparison with Konerko, Konerko is in the 85th percentile for BA (both Sizemore and Peralta are above the 80th percentile also). Big, big difference. Yeah, Konerko is slow and can only play 1B, but for hitting skills, Marte has the older profile. And he is 8 years younger.
His hitting performance has not gotten any better than when he was a 20-yr old in AA, where he posted a MLE .268 EQA. That is incredibely damn good for a 20-yr old, but it has drifted downward since. One of the proposed symptoms of old-player skills in a young player is failure to progress, as the player's skills are already mature.
Finally, this is silly (or maybe not), but Marte just looks older than his years.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
And most of the gripes about Trot and Peralta aren't necessarily 100% about their offense: it's defense included, too. People want to see Cabrera at short not because of his relatively warm stick this year, but because he is a defensive wizard.
Same with Trot....the end result from a swap from Trot to Gutz full time may not equal a huge return in the end of the season stats; it will, however, further Gutz's development (which has relatively high upside, vs Nixon on the decline) but he also represents a gigantic improvement defensively. You're essentially putting 3 centerfielders in the outfield. (Michaels played there in Philly, sparingly) We mentioned in the Atlanta series how nice it was that their outfield was not only able to make the regular outs, but also take away hits from their opposition. We can possibly do that too.
Sorry for the long windedness.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Peralta does not field is position anywhere close to the point where he hurts the team. In fact his fielding is similar to the other top SS's in the American League (Guillen, Jeter, Tejada) so there is no real need to move him. He is very valuable right where he is.
Also, I think Gutierrez would in fact outhit Nixon right now. I don't see him put up anything worse than a .700 OPs and he certainly has the ability to hit up to an .850 one.
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
by johnnyromano on Jun 29, 2007 5:06 PM EDT reply actions

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