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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3

Recap
Box Score
Win Probability Added @ Fangraphs

Highest WPA:

Jason Michaels .432
Joe Borowski .168
Rafael Betancourt .124

Lowest WPA:

Jhonny Peralta -.125
Trot Nixon -.068
Mike Rouse -.062

Because Paul Byrd was able to recover from early-inning struggles to give the Indians seven innings of work, he not only saved the bullpen for future games, but kept the offense within a reasonable distance of the lead. The former accomplishment should not be underestimated, given how thin the back end of the bullpen is now.

I think Trot Nixon is done as an everyday player. Perhaps it's the regular play that's wore him down, but even if that's not the case, it's very difficult to justify giving him more playing time than Franklin Gutierrez or Jason Michaels, both of whom are much better defensively and offensively right now. He's still useful to the Indians, at least as long as David Dellucci's sidelined, but his usefulness as a starting corner outfielder has evaporated.

Cautionary stat of the day: Josh Barfield is hitting .326 in June, but he hasn't drawn a walk in over a month.

Promising stat of the day: From June 1-June 24, Travis Hafner had two extra-base hits. In the past four games, he has three.

Up Next: The Indians welcome Tampa Bay to town. Westbrook vs. Jackson, 7:05 PM

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Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Obviously Gutierrez should start against lhp; his ops this season is above .900 vs Nixon's sub .600.  But even against rhp, Gutierrez' ops is .719 vs Nixon's .677.  Factor in the defensive advantage, Gutz should be starting basically every day.  And when you consider which way their careers are trending, it's not even close.

by plato on Jun 28, 2007 10:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
It's a shame. I think Trot is a great guy and great to have on the team, but his stats/position just don't mesh well with this team.

Especially if/when Marte gets called back up and that moves Casey back out to RF.

He would be a better fit on a team like Tampa Bay or the 2004 Indians ...

 

by Toxicadam on Jun 28, 2007 11:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
All this focus on offense seems to be missing where some of our real troubles lie. We're the #2 offense in baseball with .630 OPS second baseman, poor corner OF production AND Hafner is mired in a slump! Seriously, we could be doing a lot worse on offense.

Want something to worry about? Worry about pitching! C.C and Fausto are the only two starters we have who could reliably put up zeros for 6 or 7 innings. Yes, Fausto had a bad start and Byrd had a QS most recently. But does anyone honestly think that a team with Paul Byrd as its number three starter is going to make the World Series? I'm not yet ready to put money on Lee and Westbrook returning to old form. Sowers is still struggling in AAA and Miller is dealing with another injury. I feel a little better about our bullpen, but not by much. Betancourt, Perez and Borowski seems stable. Everyone else is injured or a big fat question mark.

Look, our offense doesn't look like a prototypical offense. We aren't powered by poor fielding corner infielders. We don't have fast, contact hitting middle infielders setting the table. We have a CF with power, patience and speed leading off. Our catcher is our biggest offensive weapon. We get nice power out of SS. Yes, our COF production could be better. But let's get our pitching together and then worry about the offense.

by crazymoloh on Jun 29, 2007 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
First, Jake Westbrook is this team's number 3 starter.

Second, yes a team can win the world series with a guy like Paul Byrd as the number 3. Why not? Everyone loves to say "How can you expect to win a world series without incredible #3 starter/power corner OF/whatever it is that person wants to be acquired." You do it the way anybody does it-by getting hot and rolling through the playoffs.

The Cardinals did it with Jeff Suppan. The Diamondbacks once did it with Albie Lopez. Boston's pitching was gross behind Pedro and Curt the year it won. When the Mets went to the World Series their three starter was Glendon Rusch. The last time the New York Yankees won the World Series they're pitching after Clemens was:

Petite: 4.35 ERA
Cone: 6.91 ERA
Hernandez: 4.51 ERA
Neagle: 5.81 ERA

The Indians starting pitching is better than that and it's offense is every bit as good.

So please, everyone, lay off the histrionics about "You can't win a world series with player X in your lineup/rotation." Of course you can. There's no one on the Indians anywhere near bad enough to prevent the Tribe from winning a world series all by themselves.  

3-A handful of teams in the history of baseball have 3 starting pitchers that a rational person could expect to put up zeros for 6 or 7 innings. The Indians don't really have any pitchers like that. CC has 2 shutouts all year. Fausto has one.

None of this is to say the Indians shouldn't be trying to improve. Just stop with the overstatement both with the good (CC/Fausto) and the bad (what it "takes" to win a WS).  

by afh4 on Jun 29, 2007 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
If last year's World Series illustrated anything, its that anyone can win it. I think we all know that the better team lost. I'll layoff the 'can't win with player X' crap.

"A handful of teams in the history of baseball have 3 starting pitchers that a rational person could expect to put up zeros for 6 or 7 innings. The Indians don't really have any pitchers like that. CC has 2 shutouts all year. Fausto has one."

First off, I don't think any team in the history of baseball has had a single stater go a season with an ERA of 0.00. So clearly I wasn't suggesting that C.C and Fausto are going to do that. But they are the only guys who have non-shitty ERAs. I could reasonably expect only the two of them, based on their 07 track record, to keep things close against a good offense.

You don't think a #3 starter with 7.00 ERA is a little cause for worry? How about Lee at 5.62? Their track records say they'll get back down to earth. Until that happens, its entirely reasonable to conclude their performances are cause for worry.

by crazymoloh on Jun 29, 2007 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Actually two good starting pitchers is all you need.  Witness the 2001 Diamondbacks.  Besides Schilling and Johnson, what else did they have for starters?  Anderson? Ellis? Albie Lopez?  Not much there there.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 29, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I don't know what to tell you except that you're being entirely too blunt. Byrd's FIP looks fine, Westbrook is in limited innings, and Lee is a 5 starter.

Byrd has given up 4 runs or less in 10 of his 13 starts this year. If you want three runs or less, he's done it in 7 of 13 starts matters. If you want to create some vauge standard for "giving the team a chance to win", Byrd meets it in over half of his starts, against teams of varying offensive ability.

To put another way, my thought is that Byrd's job is to get a quality start. He's 30th in the league in quality start percentage. That's pretty damn good.

Westbrook's ERA means nothing to me. If you want to argue that he's worthless because of injury concerns, go for it. But his ERA doesn't mean anything. He's thrown 34 innings on the year. It doesn't concern me at all. Especially after his last outing.

It's the same way you're telling people that the offense is fine because Hafner should get at least somewhat better. Well, so should Jake. It's an injury, not a slump, but there's no reason he shouldn't start being Jake again. This guy is nothing if not consistent. If Jake does somehow go into the tank, well, we have a consensus top ten pitching prospect stretching himself out.

Similarly, I don't care about Cliff Lee's ERA. He's our 5 starter. I see reasons for optimism but as is he's already better than the 5 starter on a lot of teams. Off the top of my head, he's better or as good as Horacio Ramirez, Jeff Weaver, Bartolo, Maroth, and Scott Baker. Cliffy is tied for 51st in the league in QS%. Again, good and reasonable for where he slots in our rotation.

Everyone thinks their number 5 is the absolute worst. It's because they aren't forced to watch anyone else's number 5 every 5th game.  

None of this is really my point though. My point is that, while Shap is certainly going to do his job and improve the team if he feels he needs to do, there's no reason this team, as constructed, can't win the world series. None of these players are giant albatrosses that are being dragged along. They're all useful pieces. Add to that Adam Miller.

So, while you're saying "You guys are crazy! The offense is great, it's the pitching that's troublesome!"

I'm saying, well, there aren't really any causes for worry. There are salient and interesting points and decisions to be made but this is a very good baseball team that's performing about as well as it should be.

Again, that's not to say I'm demanding we stand pat. Sure, explore trade scenarios, try to get better in ways that make sense, etc. But there's a lot already here-this isn't a team that has to add offense or has to add pitching.

by afh4 on Jun 29, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
You might be interested in this HBT  article from last winter on the subject of rotation evaluation.

by MTF on Jun 29, 2007 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Thanks for passing that along. Article is fun for, among other reasons, this line:

that top 30 list still includes names such as John Lackey, Chris Capuano, and Jason Jennings.

Lackey was being listed as a guy who was the best starter on his team despite not being a recognized "ace." Things change awful fast.

And this is what I was driving at, backed up statistically:

Lg      #1      #2      #3      #4      #5
MLB     3.60    4.14    4.58    5.10    6.24
AL      3.70    4.24    4.58    5.09    6.22
NL      3.51    4.04    4.57    5.11    6.26
What immediately jumps out at me is how high the #4 and #5 ERAs are. If there's one thing most people agree on when they talk about rotation spots, it's that a guy with an ERA over 5.00 ought to be your #5 starter. As it turns out, fewer than half of major league teams could claim an ERA under 5.00 from their #4 spot.

Thanks for passing it along. It's an excellent read.

by afh4 on Jun 29, 2007 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Thanks for passing that along. Article is fun for, among other reasons, this line:

that top 30 list still includes names such as John Lackey, Chris Capuano, and Jason Jennings.

Lackey was being listed as a guy who was the best starter on his team despite not being a recognized "ace." Things change awful fast.

And this is what I was driving at, backed up statistically:


Lg      #1      #2      #3      #4      #5
MLB     3.60    4.14    4.58    5.10    6.24
AL      3.70    4.24    4.58    5.09    6.22
NL      3.51    4.04    4.57    5.11    6.26
What immediately jumps out at me is how high the #4 and #5 ERAs are. If there's one thing most people agree on when they talk about rotation spots, it's that a guy with an ERA over 5.00 ought to be your #5 starter. As it turns out, fewer than half of major league teams could claim an ERA under 5.00 from their #4 spot.

Thanks for passing it along. It's an excellent read.

Sorry, wanted to fix the html.

by afh4 on Jun 29, 2007 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I posted in another thread how I was worried about Barfield and Jay rightly pointed out that a high BABIP is a potential skill for a hitter.  I'm afraid that won't hold for the season, though, since he isn't legging out infield singles (see hit chart on MLB.com), and he isn't hitting line drives (at least I assume).  Right now he has about the most empty average one can imagine.

by MikeP on Jun 28, 2007 11:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I'm torn on Barfield. I like the guy a lot, but he seems to throw his bat out there early in the count and get into an 0-2 hole. He seems to have Marte-itis, but God given talent (i.e. ability to foul off breaking balls) seems to let him stick around long enough in each AB to get that hit to stay above the Mendoza line. He's young, seems like a good team guy. I hope he develops.

by crazymoloh on Jun 29, 2007 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
This doesn't deserve a diary, but there was an interesting blurb in the Plain Dealer today:

"WTAM AM/1100, the Indians' flagship station, reported negotiations between the Indians and Travis Hafner have resumed and that Hafner could be signed within the next several weeks."

Shapiro and Hafner's agent didn't sound like they had been talking though, so maybe they are referring to chatter around the FO?  Maybe they're drafting a new contract offer?

Hopefully it's true because I think that is a pretty heavy burden on Hafner's mind right now.

Link:

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/sports/118301977781420.xml&coll=2& ;thispage=2

by Pronk33 on Jun 29, 2007 12:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Who knows?  Maybe three days ago, he told his agent to cut the best deal possible, right now, and get it done.  I've heard weirder.

by Jay on Jun 29, 2007 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I was listening to it on Triv's show (Wednesday/Tuesday?) when Shapiro was on.

The insinuation was that the hangup wasn't over money or length of contract (like Gammons reported). But other things (I'm guessing he wants a "no-trade" clause).

I really don't want to resign Pronk, use the money to make a play for CC instead.

by Toxicadam on Jun 29, 2007 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
A meek, partial defense of Barfield:  Since his last walk, he's batted in front of a pitcher about 30 times out of 121.  It's not easy to walk when you're even slightly disinclined and batting in front of a pitcher.  Still, this is going to be a problem at some point, and probably some point soon.

by Jay on Jun 29, 2007 12:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Curious, but what were Vizquel's walk rates like? As in, is Barfield our next "Omar" in that his shining defense will help us overlook his offensive shortcomings even as he improves steadily at the plate, or is Barf's problem a bit more serious in that he doesn't project well offensively due to low walk rates?
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 29, 2007 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
At Barfield's age, 24, Omar had his best season to date -- with a 595 OPS.  And that was in a hitter-friendly park!

Their numbers at first look similar for age 24, but the truth is, Barfield's rookie year was better than anything Omar did until age 29, and I think he'll be back at the level and beyond fairly soon.

Interestingly, Vizquel has the better walk rate, even at a young age, which just underscores how much stronger Barfield is as an aggressive contact hitter.  Keep in mind that selectivity doesn't peak until after 30, and lots of players who show great contact-hitting acumen in their early 20's develop a lot more selectivity later on.

by Jay on Jun 29, 2007 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Excellent, that's just what I wanted to hear. Thanks a bunch for the info, Jay! I hope to see J-Barf around for a while.
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 29, 2007 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Barfield has been the oposite of what I expected - I expected a guy who would improve his power production from last year and have spotty defense, and what we have is a stellar defensive 2B who is basically a slap hitter. How did he get all those  homers and doubles last year? It's hard to figure with the arms-only swing he has right now.

I like Barf, and I can see he's athletic enough and has a quick enough bat to morph into a different offensive player over time. But he'll still need to lay off those pitches off the plate and get his obp up to respectable territory to have an extended future here. If we had traded Kouz for a 2B with Barf's current OPS, I don't think we would have been very happy at the time.

by mcrose on Jun 29, 2007 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
As far as the future goes, remember AsCab can play 2B just as well as SS.

by mcrose on Jun 29, 2007 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
It would be interesting to compare his swing from last year to his swing from this year and see if the Indians have had him retool his swing.  I think the plate discipline will come.  I also wonder how much of the lack of power is the result of better pitching in the AL.

by woodsmeister on Jun 29, 2007 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Kouzmanoff has a .653 OPS. Though he got hot in May, his OPS in June is .665.

Plus Kouzmanoff has 12 errors.

by afh4 on Jun 29, 2007 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Oh, I like the trade - liked it then and like it now. But the reasons I like him have changed. I liked it then because of the numbers he put up in '06 and the projection from them into the future. It's fair to say he hasn't done that at all yet - no power, no obp, pretty much just a knack for putting the bat on the ball in tight situations (despite his slap hitting, he's heading for more rbi's this year than last).

I like him now for reasons that I didn't expect - his great defense, his speed and baserunning instincts, and his general athleticism and flair.

Everybody likes Josh, right? But let's face it - despite a batting avg 30 points higher than Trot Nixon, his OPS is still worse than the Trotman. That's pretty bad.

by mcrose on Jun 29, 2007 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I think you make a good point there about Nixon. It seems as though Trot Nixon has become the scapegoat on this team when there is an even worse hitter getting even more AB's.

In addition, some people seem so convinced that we should trade Peralta to make room for Asdrubal in the coming years or get ride of Marte and move Peralta to 3b. These people surprise me because it's almost as if they are oblivious to the 2b we have. It seems like a no brainer to me to replace Barfield with Cabrera in 2009.

by Joe. on Jun 29, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
there is an even worse hitter getting even more AB's

The standards are different for a stellar 2B, compared to a RF who is borderline immobile.

by Jay on Jun 29, 2007 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
See my below post about the whole stellar 2b thing. And of course you are right about their positional value, but it's interesting to me nonetheless how Nixon gets all the flake and Barifle gets none.

by Joe. on Jun 29, 2007 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I think Nixon has been put in a position to fail lately; the fans are just honing in on his struggles because he still gets a good chunk of playing time, making his struggles that much more visible.  But yeah, he does seem to get hit pretty hard as a scapegoat sometimes (I'm guilty of this on occasion).

As for Barfield though, I think it's a lot more difficult to really slam him for his offensive performance this year.  It's only his second year in either league and 2b isn't typically a strong offensive position, obviously.  

As long as he shows signs of improvement this season (that walk rate kind of bothers me though) and plays above average defense, I have no issue with Barfield.  He's shown he has some pop in San Diego, so the extra base hits will show up again.  It's too early to give a final verdict on Barfield; I'd wait until the end of the season.    

I think he came in with pretty high expectations, but like I said, he's shown improvement or excelled in some areas and he is still developing as a player (unlike Nixon, who is certainly declining).

At this point, I would prefer Peralta, Barfield, and Cabrera with Marte the odd man out, but it's way too early to discuss booting one of our young infielders.  Cabrera is still only in AA and Marte is still really young.  Just my opinion on that.

by Pronk33 on Jun 29, 2007 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Sighing from the constant overreactions to prospect and rookie performances ...

Asdrubal is 21, putting up an 887 OPS in Double-A.  And what did Marte do at 21?  Put up an 878 OPS in /Triple-/A -- and yes, with excellent defense at 3B, and yes, the scouts have always loved his bat more.

Now nobody can dispute at this point that there is a legitimate question as to whether Marte has plateaued, and as to what it will take for him to take his game to a higher level.  You might think that all he needs is a genuine opportunity, but you'd still have to admit that it's a legitimate question.

That said, with the bat, Asdrubal hasn't done anything, ever, yet, that Marte didn't do better, or younger, or both.

by Jay on Jun 29, 2007 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Jay, you have been the biggest/earliest/most prescient proponent of Asdrubal, so I defer to you on this one. But so far this year, has not the contact ability (more BBs than Ks) and the ability to hit for average (an important young person skill) of Asdrubal been better than anything Marte has shown?

by oxforddave on Jun 29, 2007 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Well, contact isn't everything, is it?  At age 21, Marte had a .14 walk rate in Triple-A, which frankly is just silly, yet it wasn't out of step with the rest of his career.  That kind of fundamental solidness at such a young age, it's almost hard for a guy like that not to succeed.

I'd propose F-Gootz as an example of this.  He's seemingly rested for three years on the laurels of having solved the Florida State League at age 20.  Yet just when you think he's never going to amount to much ... well, he looks pretty damned good out there, doesn't he?

Success at a young age at a high level is an almost bulletproof indicator -- or at least, it's so much better than anything else we've got re: prospect analysis that it's almost not worth looking at anything else.

by Jay on Jun 29, 2007 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Another point about Cabrera and Marte!
Hello oxforddave and Jay,

One other point about comparing their OPS - Cabrera's doesn't necessarily have to be higher for him to have more value than Marte because Cabrera is an excellent SS prospect, while Marte was/is an excellent 3B prospect, and as we all know, a 3B is expected to hit for higher OPS and power than a SS is.

Now, it's true that Marte was at a higher level and putting up a slightly higher OPS than Cabrera, but like others have hinted or mentioned, I too am concerned about Marte's erratic offensive performances (even now at AAA Buffalo, he's back down in the .240s offensively, at a level he's played at since he was 21 back in 2005, two years ago.  By now, he should be able to hit upper-200s, if not .300 +, but he isn't, and hasn't since he went down there a month or so ago.)  

I haven't given up on Marte yet, but I also have serious concerns on whether he has plateaued or not.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Jun 29, 2007 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Another point about Cabrera and Marte!
The point was that Marte did in Triple-A, not Double-A, at the same age.

by Jay on Jun 29, 2007 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Another point about Cabrera and Marte!
Marte did have a very good AAA season as a 21-yr old. But his 21-yr old season was old player skill driven (power and walks). Cabrera's 21-yr old season is young player skill driven (average, speed, contact, good defense (supposedly) at a prime defensive position). Despite having about the same OPS (with an important level difference) their skill sets could not be more different.

Bill James showed many years ago that young players with old player skills do not translate well to the majors, while young players with young skills do translate well. See for instance this or this interesting discussion.

Thus in a single season vaccuum, I'd be more excited by Cabrera's 21-yr old season in AA than Marte's 21-yr old season in AAA. Note that this does not put Cabrera ahead of Marte at the same age. It is only 1 (or 1/2) season of data.

by oxforddave on Jun 29, 2007 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Another point about Cabrera and Marte!
I think this is both a misapplication of the term to Marte and a misapplication of the concept overall.

Marte is hardly a classic Old Skills player, e.g., Paul Konerko, a defensive zero and a liability on the basepaths.  I've read possibly every publicly available scouting report on Marte back to 2002.  He plays a key defensive position, 3B, and has been characterized everywhere from above-average to outstanding.  And even as a baserunner, the worst description you can find will say that he's a hair below average in raw speed but an above-average baserunner overall, due to his superior instincts.

Yes, really, that is what scouts have always said about Andy Marte.  I've read the bullshit "scouting reports" by fans, that he's big and sluggish, and all I have to say is, they say the same things about Franklin Gutierrez, and it's bullshit about him, too.

I also don't know if a guy who has ranged from .269 to .285 in his minor league career is considered a "low batting average" kind of hitter.  Those aren't any worse than Jhonny Peralta's in the minors, and they're not that much lower than Grady Sizemore's.

But even if we want to think of Marte's skills as a bit O.P.-ish, the Old Player Skills discussion isn't about prospects not developing into major leaguers, it's about established major leaguers declining more quickly once they hit age 32 or 33.

So when Shapiro signs Marte to a three-year extension, extending him through his age 32 season, supermarioella gets to write another Diary talking about how smart Shapiro is, and you get to chime in, "Yes!  He's got Old Player Skills!"

But that is a discussion for 2013, not today.

by Jay on Jun 30, 2007 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Another point about Cabrera and Marte!
I could not respectively disagree more. In my mind, Marte is the epitome of a old-player skills player.  He MLE's show him to be above average in ISO (75th percentile) and BB (65 percentile). Very good with the old skills. But he is in the 22nd percentile for BA, and 10th percentile for speed (the young skills). I don't care how he "runs the bases", if you speed score is lower than Garko and Hafner, and equivalent with Vic, you are slow, and incredibly slow for a 23-yr old. He isn't going to get any faster.

As for the comparison with Konerko, Konerko is in the 85th percentile for BA (both Sizemore and Peralta are above the 80th percentile also). Big, big difference. Yeah, Konerko is slow and can only play 1B, but for hitting skills, Marte has the older profile. And he is 8 years younger.

His hitting performance has not gotten any better than when he was a 20-yr old in AA, where he posted a MLE .268 EQA. That is incredibely damn good for a 20-yr old, but it has drifted downward since. One of the proposed symptoms of old-player skills in a young player is failure to progress, as the player's skills are already mature.

Finally, this is silly (or maybe not), but Marte just looks older than his years.

by oxforddave on Jun 30, 2007 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
Again, Barfield is only in his second full season in the bigs, and he had to do a league switch. Some players never really adjust to the new pitching (read: Renteria) and he has done well. He's making solid contact: Expect his power and selectivity to come with time.

And most of the gripes about Trot and Peralta aren't necessarily 100% about their offense: it's defense included, too. People want to see Cabrera at short not because of his relatively warm stick this year, but because he is a defensive wizard.

Same with Trot....the end result from a swap from Trot to Gutz full time may not equal a huge return in the end of the season stats; it will, however, further Gutz's development (which has relatively high upside, vs Nixon on the decline) but he also represents a gigantic improvement defensively. You're essentially putting 3 centerfielders in the outfield. (Michaels played there in Philly, sparingly) We mentioned in the Atlanta series how nice it was that their outfield was not only able to make the regular outs, but also take away hits from their opposition. We can possibly do that too.

Sorry for the long windedness.

God truly does hate cleveland sports.

by Gradysmanldy on Jun 29, 2007 12:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I know people don't put a big stock into the sabermetric defensive metrics but nearly all have actually said that the difference defensively between Peralta and Barfield is not as big as you would think. I think Barfield has got a somewhat Jeter effect working on us. For every couple nice plays he has, he has a real boneheaded one. I think those nice plays tend to make us overlook the bad one.

Peralta does not field is position anywhere close to the point where he hurts the team. In fact his fielding is similar to the other top SS's in the American League (Guillen, Jeter, Tejada) so there is no real need to move him. He is very valuable right where he is.

Also, I think Gutierrez would in fact outhit Nixon right now. I don't see him put up anything worse than a .700 OPs and he certainly has the ability to hit up to an .850 one.

by Joe. on Jun 29, 2007 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I would argue that Barfield is significantly better defensively than Derek Jeter

by Roger Dorn on Jun 29, 2007 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Seventy-Eight: Indians 4, Athletics 3
I think it's most important to keep in mind that the four infielders that appear to be the future of our franchise are all still very young. Jhonny being the old man at 25, and Cabrera the youngster at 21, it's just way too early to start pointing fingers at any of them and saying they need to go. All have shown some promise at times, and all have had some troubles. But I'm excited about the entire group. Marte still has a ton of upside, being as he's only 23. Barf has had a very good month after struggling early. Obviously none of them are going to compare to Omar and Alomar at this point, but we need to give them time. It will all sort itself out.  Trot on the other hand has to go.

by johnnyromano on Jun 29, 2007 5:06 PM EDT reply actions  

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