Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Detroit at Cleveland, 1:05 PM (STO)
Starting Pitchers:
Cleveland: Jeremy Sowers (6.29 ERA, 12 PRC)
Detroit: Jeremy Bonderman (3.34 ERA, 29 PRC)
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Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Wedge: Lee has work to do; regressed from last start; fast-ball happy; will sit down with Carl;
has to do better
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Hey, how about those Cavs?
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:07 PM EDT reply actions
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That said, Kelly is hot as hell too, so. Naw I can't come up with much of a rationale.
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by rog on Jun 3, 2007 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
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If Sowers isn't able to hit his spots with Madduxesque precision, things won't be much better for him in Buffalo.
by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:12 PM EDT reply actions
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If Sowers has a bad day today, JoBo may have to pitch in a non-save situation just to get some work.
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I don't really care much about batting order, but I'd bet Wedge thinks Jhonny is comfortable in the 2 b/c that's where he hit basically all of 2005, right? Or was he in the 5?
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
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Plus, it seems like all of his homers lately are just no doubters-they sound gone and we always get a moment of Victor watching that thing fly.
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I adore Victor and think he might be the most underrated player in either league. But if they find some elixir to keep Mauer healthy and behind the dish, he could hit .400. It's close between him and Vic.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:29 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 3, 2007 1:31 PM EDT reply actions
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by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 3, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
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by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 3, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
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by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 3, 2007 1:34 PM EDT reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
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by jakesinger777 on Jun 3, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
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by hillsdaletribefan on Jun 3, 2007 1:39 PM EDT reply actions
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But he's just pitching like crap.
Do you think the Cavs team shop is open today?
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Plus, Sowers walks more people than Maddux.
I guess they're both supposed to be "cerebral" but I don't really see a similarity on the mound. Maddux had some really nice pitches early in his career, as well.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I guess I see Sowers and Maddux as mirror images. People aren't impressed with Sowers' stuff, so they keep saying his somehow like Maddux or Moyer or whoever, when in fact he's not that similar statistically.
In the reverse, Maddux's stuff isn't impressive so everyone's always emphasized all these non-quantifiable aspects of his game. Well, that's kind of true but Maddux also struck out a whole bunch of guys and induced a ton of groundballs with downward action on his pitches. He's like a lot of really effective pitchers in that way.
The delivery thing I hadn't thought of and that's true. They do kind of look alike if I remember Maddux's delivery well.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
He's 12th all time in strikeouts. It's not all that surprising that he's one of the best pitchers ever.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
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Sowers has 5 QS for the season, but only 1 in May.
It will be interesting to see at the end of the year how Willis' current and former pupils stack up at the end-of-the-year when they decide whether to bring him back.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
by jakesinger777 on Jun 3, 2007 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
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Wait, is there baseball on today?
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
by Gradyforpresident on Jun 3, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
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http://10702135442.baseball.sportsline.com/players/playerpage/583492
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Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Is your apartment in Buffalo still available for sublet?
Many thanks,
Jeremy
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 2:17 PM EDT reply actions
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Granted, there's not a real viable replacement option now (Stanford?) but it's still frustrating as hell.
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by woodsmeister on Jun 4, 2007 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
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Yeah, maybe Stanford gets a start. Ho-hum.
by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
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And back to back complete game shutouts. He was very confident coming off his Buffalo stretch, and pretty much continued that at the next level, controlling the tempo of most every game with first pitch strikes and quick innings. That was what was Maddux-like about him, it was not unusual for him to go late into a game with a low pitch count.
This Sowers is not the same guy, and is not pitching with the same confidence and control. I can't imagine this guy pitching a shutout, he's throwing scared and making a lot of mistakes over the plate. I agree a Buffalo stint (ie, some success) might be really good for him - but to say it was clear last year that this is the pitcher he is, is... well, beyond pointing out the K rate, it was not that apparent. He was very good.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
And you can't just say "Besides K's." That's a huge deal, especially if your other peripherals aren't flawless.
You can't leave 76% of runners on base without striking guys out consistently. That's the whole story to me. All this business of "confidence and control" is just avoiding that fact.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
He's not pitching the same - he's getting drilled, regardless of K's, and after his first few starts, he wasn't getting drilled last year, and I don't think it was because of luck. His velocity is way down (hard to believe, but it is), his control is missing (he regularly kept it on the outside corner last year), and he is self-admittedly lost some confidence.
I'm not going to write him off quite yet, but he joins a number of Tribe pitchers that seem pretty confused and down right now.
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He was in, I think, the bototm 3 of qualified starters in terms of strikeouts. That's not kind of a big deal to me. That's a huge deal.
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Wedge wants to try to win today.
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I hope Fauston bucks the trend. With his stuff you'd think he'd strike more guys out.
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9.1 IP, 15H, 10R, 7ER
So, ignore the 5-run bottom of the ninth for a second. Close your eyes and imagine that we've got a 2.5 game lead and the Tigers are about to make it 1.5. The bullpen really isn't that good, or at least, this has been its worst weekend since the New York series I think.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:00 PM EDT reply actions
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And relatedly, is the vs. lefties outfield likely to be comprised of Gutz and Michaels, or is that just wishful thinking? I think it was Sheldon Ocker today, who said that with Marte likely to stay in Buffalo for much of the season, that either Delucci/Nixon would see a fair amount of time against lefty starters. I'd be hard-pressed to understand how that's in this team's best interest.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
If he doesn't come up it will be because he doesn't hit, not because Wedge/Shapiro have made a choice now that he's staying there all year.
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He needs to go.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
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And the cavs are going to the finals!
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
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Does the Tribe have the bullpen to get into the World Series and win it? What moves do we have to make to get this thing done?
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Moreover, it's clear that he's confident enough now to assure you that he can go close for the Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves or anybody else interested in a premier closer who has seemingly regained the form that made him an All-Star in 2005.
"I just want to make clear that my preference would be to be the closer here," said Lidge, who has pitched seven consecutive scoreless innings over his last six outings. Moreover, he has given up only two earned runs over 21 1/3 innings since April 22.
by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 3, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
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I see Otskua as a much more feasible solution.
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Also, I like Perez in the pen.
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:29 PM EDT reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Starters:
- C.C. Sabathia
- Fausto Carmona
- Paul Byrd
- Jake Westbrook
- Adam Miller
- Cliff Lee
- Joe Borowski
- Rafael Betancourt
- Fernando Cabrera
- Aaron Fultz
- Tom Mastny
- Rafael Perez / Ed Mujica
- Victor Martinez
- Kelly Shoppach
- Josh Barfield
- Casey Blake
- Ryan Garko
- Jhonny Peralta
- Mike Rouse
- David Dellucci
- Franklin Gutierrez
- Jason Michaels
- Trot Nixon
- Grady Sizemore
25. Travis Hafner
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
It's probably pretty close to what our playoff roster would consist of - although I'd be suprised if Shapiro doesn't make a move or two before the trade deadline.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
andrew noted that we've discussed the lee to the pen thing at length already. i need to catch up on my reading apparently. i personally don't get it. is the theory that he looks gassed early in games, and moving him to a one or two inning role might pick up his declining K rates? not sure whether i buy that yet. also, lefties are killing him this year, so i don't see him in a situational role.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
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It's a lot of wishful speculation though; that his FB would pick up a couple of tics, etc.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
by fleerdon on Jun 3, 2007 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
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by fleerdon on Jun 3, 2007 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:36 PM EDT reply actions
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by APV on Jun 3, 2007 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
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PKehres@gmail.com
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:49 PM EDT reply actions
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by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 4:01 PM EDT reply actions
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by Gradyforpresident on Jun 3, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
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How good does Perez look, though? A couple more innings like that and he'll need a realtor in Cleveland.
by fleerdon on Jun 3, 2007 4:10 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Some observations!
It's not officially over yet, due to a rain delay, but it's probably not too early for some observations. :-)
- It probably would have been Sowers anyway who would have been sent back to Buffalo even if he had pitched somewhat well over his next start or two, but with today's performance, I'm guessing it'll be Sowers who will head to Buffalo and Lee will "work on his stuff" here, though Lee really is doing no better than Sowers, and to me, his stuff doesn't seem much better than Sowers either. Why isn't he using his curveball more? That makes no sense to me.
- You know Pronk still isn't right when he's chasing obvious balls up and out of the strike zone like he did in one of his at-bats today on a 3-2 count. Will he ever find his 2006 form this year or will he be inconsistent/streaky the entire year?
- Just like Fultz can't seem to handle bases-loaded situations too well, it might be better to keep Borowski out of non-save situations. He seems to have an allergic reaction to them. :-)
Re: Some observations!
Cliff has a narrow edge, and I believe he has the better chance of improving.
by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Neither has great stats and neither is doing well!
I can understand your point about Lee having the better chance to improve based on his past success at the ML level, but he doesn't seem to be the same pitcher at all from even 2 years ago when he won 18 games. As mentioned, he's not even using his curveball, which was a big K pitch from him (might partly explain why his K rate keeps falling every year; 8.09 in 2004 to 6.37 in 2005 to 5.79 in 2006.)
In addition, while Sowers' velocity will likely never increase enough to improve his margin for error stuff-wise, he just turned 24, compared to Lee being 28, so if anyone could improve just based on being young enough, it would be Sowers.
In addition, Sowers arguably might have been promoted a bit too quickly - yes, his W-L record and ERA deserved a promotion, but his BB/K ratio was an underlying indicator that maybe he wasn't quite ready, and while expecting him to strike out a batter per inning is unrealistic, he did strike out 7.65/9 IP at AA, which is normally the level a pitcher's K rate will fall off precipitously, not AAA. It also seems unusual to me for a pitcher's K rate to fall off that much going from AA to AAA; you could expect a slight drop-off, but 2.5 K/9 IP seemed to indicate that Sowers may not have been as ready to make the jump from AAA to the Majors as his W-L record and ERA were suggesting.
I hope Lee rebounds, but the biggest problem I have with him is that his K rate has been declining for a few years and he's really been in his current rut for over a year now. He doesn't look like that #2-#3 starter who can go out, give 6-7 quality innings, and strike out anywhere from 5-9 guys in 6-7 IP. We're lucky now to even get 5-6 quality innings from Lee on a regular basis, and by then, he's usually pushing or over 100 pitches. With his rut being this long, I'm not confident we'll see that dominant Lee we seen 2-3 years ago, though I hope I'm wrong on that.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
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by Delluccious on Jun 4, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
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He can replace Phillips as the former Indian flash point.
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I have to say I was pretty amazed and impressed, as were the Angels' announcers. The dude had command of 4 pitches for strikes, primarily using a mid-90's fastball that he could spot and a good slider that he used to either side of the plate. He maintained his stuff, hitting 97 in the 7th, and worked quickly with great tempo, making several nice fielding plays and holding runners with a good move to first.
It's a shame we didn't control him for another year - I don't know for sure, but I think that was because we got Boras'd into signing him to a ML contract when we drafted him. I always liked him - even when he went through his AAA troubles I always thought he was a real horse if he'd only get his shit together. He certainly did today, er, yesterday.
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I knew you weren't from Cleveland. I have a habit of glossing over details.
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by Jay on Jun 4, 2007 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions
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by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 4, 2007 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
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I did pick up this "y'all" habit, though, and it's pretty handy. I say "fixin' to" on occasion, too.
by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 4, 2007 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
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("Y'all," however, I picked up in upstate New York. Uh... we started using it in translation exercises in Greek and Latin because "you (plural)" is unwieldy, and next thing you know, I've picked up "y'all." Straaaange!)
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by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 4, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
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y'all.
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I made a musician I work with give up his Yankees cap. Have to have standards.
by Jay on Jun 4, 2007 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
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by Jay on Jun 4, 2007 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
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by Turkmenbashi on Jun 4, 2007 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I don't live in the area, but I see at least parts of most every game. To me, his stuff isn't what it was last year...and I realize he's not a "stuff" guy. But after a couple of starts last year, I remember him throwing 88 pretty regularly. This year it's more like 85. With his delivery, hitters had a tough time picking him up. He'd get a lot of hitters to be late and pop up or he'd jam them and get them to bounce to third. That isn't happening much this year.
A couple of more things support this theory...his K rate in 2005 was over 8 per 9 innings, including 7.65 per 9 innings in AA...he wasn't striking that many guys out with the stuff he's showing now, that's for sure. Also, the stuff he's showing now wouldn't get him drafted in the first round...twice. His numbers this year support it as well...his GO/FO ratio is way down this year, and his K rate is also way down (unbelievably). Also, his walk rate is up, which could be the result of worse stuff.
Basically, I think he's either got a tired arm, is hurt, or is way out of whack mechanically. None of that is fatal. Hopefully his stuff will return later in the year in Buffalo, assuming that he'll be there shortly. I think he can turn into a pitcher with an ERA in the low 4's, especially if he can improve that vastly inadequate change-up. But if they need to move him to get a quality set-up guy, I wouldn't be opposed to it because he isn't a high-ceiling guy. But it's not just as simple as saying that he was lucky last year. He's been unlucky this year to a degree, but his stuff is off as well.
Getting my money's worth on my first post...
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
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He's not this bad.....but he's been pretty damn bad.
looking at his xFIP would make the difference worse, so I didn't bother. Anyways, he's probably going to have to be sent down. Its not the worst thing in the world,, It could be that he just needs to get on a hot streak again with his accuracy and drop that BB rate. I honestly think his K rate is a function of his BB rate, He doesn't have the control he had last year (including his stint in AAA last year). The positive side of me will say that you get this kid down in AAA and let him regain some success with that BB rate and you'll see an improvement in his K rate and overall success.
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As you've picked up on, I'm very frustrated with Sowers and with the apologies for Sowers. I think there are good ways to apologize for him, I just don't think "where are the pop outs, groundouts to third, etc from last year?" is a real great one. Those aren't things he was doing in the first place. I probably subscribe to the McCracken no-control-over-balls-in-play theory a little bit close than I should but I still can't bring myself to believe there are adjustments Jeremy can make to suddenly start inducing groundouts or flyouts.
Somebody like Carmona, you can convince me. Because that pitch is disgusting nasty. But Sowers, I just don't see a good reason he can take that stuff and routinely get major leaguers to create outs in play.
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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878
It's a rare pitcher who controls balls in play and I don't see any reason why Sowers is that pitcher. Do I want him to be good? Yeah, obviously.
But all this anecdotal musing about his velocity being down, about him not being able to jam hitters or make them reach for balls, etc, it's all just tiresome. He left 78% of men on base last year. He was in the bottom 5 of AL starters in terms of strikeouts.
He has to change what he's doing as a pitcher, period. Not revert to where he was last year, change substantially from even that.
If he could get his K's back to last year's rate and his walks down to last year's rate he'd probably be close a 4-5 starter, which his xFIP indicated he was last year (4.76). But that's assuming those deficiencies are due to him, not due to the league making adjustments.
Having a a negative value for FIP-ERA isn't worth much when your ERA is over 6, unless the value is over 2 or somethnig.
I'm becoming the official Sowers doomsdayer, which isn't what I want to be. But I just don't agree that this is all on Jeremy losing some velocity and losing control. He's always let a ton of balls into play in the majors and that's not going to work, regardless of if he's throwing 88 or 85 or if he's hitting all his spots.
Jeremy's best chance is to go to AAA and become a different pitcher. Get back to striking guys out, refuse to give up any walks, and try to become Paul Byrd. He needs to stop believing he's some kind of expert at inducing outs in play (if he's ever believed that).
I honestly think he might have changed who he was as a pitcher as he came up last year, pitching to contact because it was going good and a bunch of people like Joe Morgan kept talking about how masterful he was at it. It doesn't appear to me he's the same type of pitcher he was when he was drafted.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I think because of the nature of the internet and blog comment lists it's hard to truly communicate a point the first time around. People usually find themselves using shorthand and leaving out large parts of their thought processes (myself foremost.) So eventually, you'll have a misunderstanding escalate to a point where one person says "Oh, for Heaven's sake, I'll have to write an essay to resolve this." I appreciate you being the first to blink in this instance as I honestly believe you know more about this stuff than I do.
Regarding Sowers, I'm pretty sure we're in agreement about the future. He's gotta go back down to AAA for the foreseeable future and if he doesn't make some adjustments (like you discussed specifically) then he's probably just a two-month flash in the pan. I think the thing you wrote that was most memorable was that he's not the pitcher we drafted. I kind of feel the same way about Marte right now and I think the silver lining is that the Indians' organizational depth is strong enough that these two guys can get right in AAA and we'll be no worse off, if not better, right now in Cleveland.
The more I think about it, I think the comment I'm responding to seems like the definitive summation of Sowers' struggles to this point. I'd like to see you flesh out some stats and make a lil diary.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
As you said, I don't think we're as far apart as it initially seemed. As I said to Hans, I'm just a little touchy about this idea that Sowers can make pitches to generate outs in play. I don't think it's a very productive way to think about him.
At any rate, good talk, see you out there. Cheers.
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I didn't mean to come off as a Sowers apologist. I just think there's more to the story than just luck. In my opinion, his stuff was better last year and it allowed him to jam hitters better. And yes, that's anecdotal. Again, his K's are way down even from last year.
Can he strike out more hitters? Yes...will it be enough to be a successful starter? I'm skeptical, since he doesn't even have an average off-speed pitch. But I think we all agree that he was lucky last year, he's been unlucky this year, and his K rate is down to an unbelievable low level. Hopefully he'll regain velocity/command and get the K rate back up to a point where we can see if he can become successful. We can also agree that his current peripherals give him no chance to be successful now.
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I guess I'd just point you towards the BPro link below. That's my whole take on pitchers and balls in play, excluding extreme groundballers.
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Yes, if you absolutely equate all balls in play, it appears pitchers have no significant control over them. But this falls apart pretty soon. Grounders are not like line drives and line drives are not like fly balls.
In fact, long flies are a lot more like home runs than grounders, yet the McCracken method equates grounders and long flies while putting homers into an entirely separate category. Obviously, that lack of nuance is a problem, which subsequent studies have tried to address.
Pitchers do in fact have a significant amount of control over balls in play, but you will still see wild variance year-over-year, as with batting average, which measures essentially the same events and has the same problems for the same reasons.
I would say:
- Yes, Sowers was rather lucky last year.
- Yes, Sowers has been rather unlucky this year.
- Yes, Sowers seems to have other issues that are more significant that BABIP variance.
- No, it is not a foregone conclusion that he can't be a good major league pitcher.
That said -- and I posted this months ago -- it should be considered a given that Sowers will have difficulty figuring out how to succeed long-term in the majors if he can't get more strikeouts. And lacking Carmona's pure stuff, he'll have both more trouble raising his K rates and also more trouble getting away with having low K rates.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Sowers put a ton of guys on base but always managed to get outs after he'd put them on. I fundamentally don't believe this was because of some kind of ability to "keep hitter's off-balance" when he needed to. I just think he got lucky.
I don't mean to make it seem like a foregone conclusion that Sowers is going to fail. As someone went on a rant about a long time ago in some thread, whatever I write I intend to have an "I think" implied. It's just my opinion after looking at the stats and watching him pitch. Anything could happen with Sowers; there's not some secret code in his stat line that guarantees he can't succeed.
I fence sit on a lot of prospects and young players. I just don't feel like doing that with Sowers.
While I kind of set up the McCracken thing as the lynchpin of my whole argument, it doesn't really need to be. I just wanted to refute this idea that Sowers is some magician who uses an 87 mph FB to force players to make outs and ground into double plays and that once he figures out how to do that again he'll be fine. As you said, there are a lot of significant issues with Jeremy; his inability to induce outs in play this year has exposed a lot of them.
I think we fundamentally agree that he's got to figure out a way to get K's and, since he's probably not going to get many even in the best of worlds, walk as few batters as possible.
I think Paul Byrd might end up being a great comp for Sowers; Byrd struggled a ton early in his career both starting and out of the bullpen, I assume because of his lack of stuff. He was very volatile year to year. Finally, when he got old and crafty, he figured out how to replicate success a little bit more regularly.
If Byrd once had way better stuff, scratch that.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I am a big fan of "feel" statements, though. As in Sowers used to feel crafty, and now he just feels crappy. And when you say Sowers always allowed a lot of baserunners, it makes me feel that you don't really love Sowers.
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Also, I hope Jeremy adopts a similarly ridiculous old school wind up.

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