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Around SBN: Chan Sung Jung Wins Thriller Over Dustin Poirier

Game Thread: June 3, 2007

Detroit at Cleveland, 1:05 PM (STO)

Starting Pitchers:

Cleveland: Jeremy Sowers (6.29 ERA, 12 PRC)
Detroit: Jeremy Bonderman (3.34 ERA, 29 PRC)

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Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
he's taken a knee to the head (beard) and a ball to the chest in the last couple.  probably needs a rest day.  his d didn't look to sharp last night.

by emil minty on Jun 3, 2007 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Sabathia scheduled to go Tuesday, pushing Byrd back a day

Wedge:  Lee has work to do; regressed from last start; fast-ball happy; will sit down with Carl;
has to do better

by palcal on Jun 3, 2007 12:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I wonder if Sowers will show progress today.  He's gonna have to pitch well for us to beat Bonderman.  Should be a good game.

Hey, how about those Cavs?

Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 3, 2007 12:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Hafner at 1B today.  Makes me nervous.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
what's up with that.  hafner at 1B.  garko is DHing, and Vic is catching day after night?  wtf?

by emil minty on Jun 3, 2007 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Yeah, it seems wrong. It might be that Victor is going so well right now and wants to be behind the plate, and they're just trying to get Haf work at 1B in anticipation of interleague.

That said, Kelly is hot as hell too, so. Naw I can't come up with much of a rationale.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
maybe wedge figures he wants to give jsow his best (last) chance for a good start, and thinks vic works better with him.  doesn't seem to be the case right now.  (and shopvack seems to be handling the cobra pretty well thus far...)

by emil minty on Jun 3, 2007 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
You have to throw strikes, Jeremy. Your stuff is crap. It at least has to be well-located crap.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
so, the indians may not need to decide between lee and sowers.  they can just both pitch the same game.  one can start the game, suck, then the other can come in for long relief.

by Brick. on Jun 3, 2007 1:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Alright, how much longer on the Sowers experiment?

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Not sure, but it's painful to watch.

by rog on Jun 3, 2007 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
as long as it takes jake to come back.  so hopefully just about 10 days and one more piece of crap start

by mpstable on Jun 3, 2007 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
lee and sowers have it wrong, its a fight to stay on the big club

by Roger Dorn on Jun 3, 2007 1:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I hate to say it, but Sowers appears to have failed as a ML starter.  Lee, for all his struggles, still has an ability to get Ks within starts, so there's considerably more hope for him.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
What's going to be great is when in 2 years Jeremy has a great half season for Baltimore and everyone starts complaining.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Camden Yards can be a launching pad.  It'll be ugly.  Then again, the Sheff HR would have been out at the old Yankee Stadium, so it wouldn't matter.

If Sowers isn't able to hit his spots with Madduxesque precision, things won't be much better for him in Buffalo.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
lee's k rate is in serious decline over the last three years.  not that i'm advocating sowers over lee.  

by emil minty on Jun 3, 2007 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
But, as has been discussed ad nauseam the last couple of weeks, Lee could probably have a future in the bullpen. I don't think many people believe Sowers would survive long in the bullpen.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
that just seemed inevitable

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
So Jeremy's two pitches today are "Ball" and "Batting Practice Fastball."

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Borowski saved all 3 games in Detroit, has had 6 days off since then.

If Sowers has a bad day today, JoBo may have to pitch in a non-save situation just to get some work.

by palcal on Jun 3, 2007 1:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I think the best thing I'm comfortable hoping for is like 4 or 5 runs in 5 innings. Anything more than that is too ambitious.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Bonderman's so nasty. That back door slider is ridic.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Well, at least Grady is helping his P/PA. He gets a trophy for that at the end of the year, right?

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Peralta is so awesome. He's got to move up in the order permanently soon, right?

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Jhonny has to be up there in opposite field power for the whole league

by Roger Dorn on Jun 3, 2007 1:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Almost without anyone really noticing, Peralta has his average up over .300

by MTF on Jun 3, 2007 1:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Travis is 30 today? That's sobering.

Happy birthday, Pronk.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
i have to say that j-ho in the 2 spot is an odd choice.  he doesn't on base or see enough pitches to warrant that in my mind.  also, isn't he leading the team in slugging?  while our 5 hole hitter is slugging well under 4?  wedgie needs to take his thinking cap off.

by emil minty on Jun 3, 2007 1:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I think Peralta is probably going to be the permanent 5 hitter pretty soon.

I don't really care much about batting order, but I'd bet Wedge thinks Jhonny is comfortable in the 2 b/c that's where he hit basically all of 2005, right? Or was he in the 5?

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
i believe he began hitting 8 or 9, then was promoted to the 3-hole for the majority of the season.  

by emil minty on Jun 3, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Victor is as locked in as humanly possible.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I dunno if youve heard, but this catcher is pretty good.

by bigbrabbs on Jun 3, 2007 1:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Ok, I just got here. What happened?

by gte619n on Jun 3, 2007 1:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
the ongoing slugfest continues

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
2 run homeruns from Martinez and Sheffield.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
6 HRs against the Tigers in 7 games. Incredible.

Plus, it seems like all of his homers lately are just no doubters-they sound gone and we always get a moment of Victor watching that thing fly.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Nixon getting angry makes me laugh. GRINDER

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
We need to get into that bullpen.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I don't understand, why is there still any question that vic is the best catcher in baseball - bar none?!
- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Jun 3, 2007 1:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Cause defense is part of the consideration and Mauer is around.

by bigbrabbs on Jun 3, 2007 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I'd rather have Vic's defense combined with Vic's games played total.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Well, he is right now. But Victor is remarkably streaky. Plus Mauer is what, 5 years younger?

I adore Victor and think he might be the most underrated player in either league. But if they find some elixir to keep Mauer healthy and behind the dish, he could hit .400. It's close between him and Vic.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Good AB Nixon.  Way to grind.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
In case anyone was wondering, the Cavs bandwagon is so full I can't even get the team store to load.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 3, 2007 1:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I saw somebody wearing a "WITNESS" shirt at a rooftop party yesterday. That is a genius ad campaign. So cool.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
That's what I wanted to buy.  Please, Nike, let me pay $25 to wear your ad all around town.  I know it's gross, I don't care!

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 3, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Plus, that giant billboard they keep showing is just awesome.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Nice.  I dusted off some of the retro school gear (c.1990).  The logo where the V is a net.     Even after all these years the blue and orange is still very, very bright.  

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
whoops.  crossed up retro and old school.  weird.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
So it's one player Pong? Is that the deal?

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I think its more Breakout, but the bricks don't break.  Or something.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 3, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
It's hard to lose when the bar takes up over half the distance and the ball moves 1mph

by Roger Dorn on Jun 3, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
HR Rod Macowiak. Man, I wish we had some players like him.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
It's like BP out there...

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 3, 2007 1:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
i don't normally do this, but i hate sowers

by Brick. on Jun 3, 2007 1:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Underwood: "You start to get the feeling they should just put a keg of beer at every base."

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Neifi Perez is the litmus test for terrible pitching. Let's see if it's blue or red.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Sowers is terrible.  What the hell happened?
- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Jun 3, 2007 1:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Nothing. Go look at his peripherals from last year. He just quit getting out of absolutely every jam.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Regression to the mean?  Or else...

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
is it wrong that i want the tigers to see a lot of pitches to get sowers out of there?

by Brick. on Jun 3, 2007 1:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
It doesn't really matter if it's wrong or right because, whether or not you want them to, they will see a TON of pitches.  He's so freakin hittable.
- Jake

by jakesinger777 on Jun 3, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Why isn't it more common to go to third on a play like that? It seems like they could often get him. I know, "safe out" and all but I'd think you'd see it more than you do.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Martinez, bird dogging it on the base path.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Sowers is a guy that is in a funny place for me.  He did well at the end of last year.  He seems like a bright guy and I like the way he goes about his business.  He's got a little of that Greg-Maddux vibe.

But he's just pitching like crap.

Do you think the Cavs team shop is open today?

by doowop on Jun 3, 2007 1:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I don't get the Maddux-Sowers thing. I feel like it's just an invention b/c people wanted to compare a young pitcher getting success with someone. Maddux is a really effective strikeout pitcher, Sowers can't strike anyone out. Even now, at like 55 years old Maddux strikes out twice as many guys a game as Sowers.

Plus, Sowers walks more people than Maddux.

I guess they're both supposed to be "cerebral" but I don't really see a similarity on the mound. Maddux had some really nice pitches early in his career, as well.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I suppose it's the fact that they both keep their heads very steady in their delivery.  And they're both "location" guys.

by doowop on Jun 3, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I guess. I just don't really think Sowers is all that "locationy." Everyone keeps saying he is but even last year he just left a ton of guys on base. I guess I think "lucky" more than "locationy."

I guess I see Sowers and Maddux as mirror images. People aren't impressed with Sowers' stuff, so they keep saying his somehow like Maddux or Moyer or whoever, when in fact he's not that similar statistically.

In the reverse, Maddux's stuff isn't impressive so everyone's always emphasized all these non-quantifiable aspects of his game. Well, that's kind of true but Maddux also struck out a whole bunch of guys and induced a ton of groundballs with downward action on his pitches. He's like a lot of really effective pitchers in that way.

The delivery thing I hadn't thought of and that's true. They do kind of look alike if I remember Maddux's delivery well.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Yeah, no kidding. I just get confused by the "mystification of Maddux." That's not really what was happening here but I'm always floored when people talk about how Maddux was this guy who soft-tossed and somehow worked magic.

He's 12th all time in strikeouts. It's not all that surprising that he's one of the best pitchers ever.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
You're right that it's an invented comparison, though I don't recall anyone seriously comparing Sowers to a Maddux, Glavine.  Those names will just surface in the discussion of any "control" pitcher.  Moyer's name comes up more commonly, but almost always it's preceded by a "let's hope...".  Readers of this blog are pretty much aware of his shortcomings.    

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
sowers can't give up any runs while the indians are hitting, right?

by Brick. on Jun 3, 2007 1:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Only problem with Manning's comment is that there is, in fact, no pop in Rouse's bat.

by Jay on Jun 3, 2007 1:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
And Bonderman only throws 9 pitches. Gross.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 1:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Meanwhile, Guthrie made 5 of 5 quality starts in May.  He will get a stiffer test today in Anaheim as he goes for 6 in a row.

Sowers has 5 QS for the season, but only 1 in May.

It will be interesting to see at the end of the year how Willis' current and former pupils stack up at the end-of-the-year when they decide whether to bring him back.

by palcal on Jun 3, 2007 2:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Man, I'm still euphoric about the Cavs game last night... went out and bought myself an EC Champs T-shirt and hope to go back tomorrow to buy a cap and one for my dad. This is surreal.

Wait, is there baseball on today?

Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 2:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I'm totally drained. I can't give much energy for this game, unless they start making things happen.

by Gradyforpresident on Jun 3, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Doesn't seem like there is any baseball on today
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Oh, Trotter. You're not all that good, are you?

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 2:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
"...The Reds are hinting Homer Bailey will arrive to start Thursday or Saturday of next week. No. 5 starter Bobby Livingston pitched well his last outing, but he cannot be recalled the next time the No. 5 spot is up Saturday -- without someone going on the DL..."

by Brick. on Jun 3, 2007 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Dear Fausto,

Is your apartment in Buffalo still available for sublet?

Many thanks,

Jeremy

by bigbrabbs on Jun 3, 2007 2:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
mastny in the pen - long man today, along with Betancourt.  Borowski WILL pitch today according to Hamilton.

by palcal on Jun 3, 2007 2:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I ain't whining 'cause, hey, we're in first place at the end of the day no matter what happens, but is this Sowers' last start?  

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 2:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I think the reason I get so upset with Sowers is I don't understand what we're waiting for. All his statistics last year said he wasn't that good and now he's turned into what he probably is. I hope I'm wrong, but I feel pretty confident that this is Jeremy Sowers and I don't see the point in extending the audition.

Granted, there's not a real viable replacement option now (Stanford?) but it's still frustrating as hell.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 2:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I agree that this is what he is now and he got lucky last year....BUT, isn't it possible that with more time in AAA he'll learn and improve?  Basically, I look at it like Sowers is our 6th starter out of Buffalo and if/when Westbrook is back it'll be a no-doubter.

by NickFantana on Jun 3, 2007 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Obviously, it would be great if he improved. But he's 24 and I'm not holding my breath. He's probably not going to find an out pitch. He could push his walks down but I honestly don't know how much that would help.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I'm thinking the only way he improves is what you said, no walks, such precision that he can dictate to hitters.  Usually I would agree that at 24, the ceiling has been reached but I'm not sure that Sowers fits in to those metrics.  Because of his pitching style, maybe he needs multiple years of high-level experience before his control develops the necessary refinement.  Then again, maybe this is pointless wishful thinking.

by NickFantana on Jun 3, 2007 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
What if we got Tom Candiotti to teach him a knuckleball?

by woodsmeister on Jun 4, 2007 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
There's Brian Slocum, with 28 K, 21 H in 26ip (only 5 starts... hurt?)  
Yeah, maybe Stanford gets a start.  Ho-hum.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
What stat besides K's wasn't good last year? He was great last year after his first couple starts. He had less hits than innings, 2 walks per game, whip under 1.2, era top two after AS break, etc.

And back to back complete game shutouts. He was very confident coming off his Buffalo stretch, and pretty much continued that at the next level, controlling the tempo of most every game with first pitch strikes and quick innings. That was what was Maddux-like about him, it was not unusual for him to go late into a game with a low pitch count.

This Sowers is not the same guy, and is not pitching with the same confidence and control. I can't imagine this guy pitching a shutout, he's throwing scared and making a lot of mistakes over the plate. I agree a Buffalo stint (ie, some success) might be really good for him - but to say it was clear last year that this is the pitcher he is, is... well, beyond pointing out the K rate, it was not that apparent. He was very good.

by mcrose on Jun 3, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Umm, his FIP? His LOB%? HR/G?

And you can't just say "Besides K's." That's a huge deal, especially if your other peripherals aren't flawless.

You can't leave 76% of runners on base without striking guys out consistently. That's the whole story to me. All this business of "confidence and control" is just avoiding that fact.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
7 of his 10 HR's last year were in the first 4 ML starts. After that he was fine in every aspect of the game other than K's. I hear you - that's a big stat, but I think its wrong to say that was predictive and he's pitching the same as last year, and its just that opposing batters have figured him out.

He's not pitching the same - he's getting drilled, regardless of K's, and after his first few starts, he wasn't getting drilled last year, and I don't think it was because of luck. His velocity is way down (hard to believe, but it is), his control is missing (he regularly kept it on the outside corner last year), and he is self-admittedly lost some confidence.

I'm not going to write him off quite yet, but he joins a number of Tribe pitchers that seem pretty confused and down right now.

by mcrose on Jun 3, 2007 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Well, I think it was because of luck. That's pretty much the divide.

He was in, I think, the bototm 3 of qualified starters in terms of strikeouts. That's not kind of a big deal to me. That's a huge deal.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I don't, but fair enough. I think its possible to be a good pitcher with a below avg K rate. The meat of the bell curve of pitchers cannot, because they can't compensate in other areas. But there are some who can make up for it by command and selection of pitches, and (of course) I think Sowers was one of those guys last year. He sure ain't this year.

by mcrose on Jun 3, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
This is a ridiculously stupid thing to bring up but just out of curiosity, what do you think Sowers' trade value was at the end of last season?

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 2:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Underwood thinks Sowers is done. Mastny in the 5th, apparently.

Wedge wants to try to win today.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 2:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
If you don't K people, you will have problems.

I hope Fauston bucks the trend. With his stuff you'd think he'd strike more guys out.

by gte619n on Jun 3, 2007 2:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
He throws that sinker so often he isnt really pitching to K people obviously (i think in that complete game shoutout vmart said carmona threw over 100 sinkers). Once he gets some more feel for that slider, he could find his K rate rising.

by bigbrabbs on Jun 3, 2007 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Sowers was at 60+ pitches and they went to the bullpen?  Any guesses as to why Wedge wants to work the bullpen for 5 innings?  Why is this game that critical?

by NickFantana on Jun 3, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
If the Indians knew Sowers was going to be bad this year, they would have kept Guthrie.

by palcal on Jun 3, 2007 2:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Bullpen this series:

9.1 IP, 15H, 10R, 7ER

So, ignore the 5-run bottom of the ninth for a second.  Close your eyes and imagine that we've got a 2.5 game lead and the Tigers are about to make it 1.5.  The bullpen really isn't that good, or at least, this has been its worst weekend since the New York series I think.

by NickFantana on Jun 3, 2007 2:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Anyone anticipate roster move(s) on tomorrow's off-day?

by mplswahoo on Jun 3, 2007 2:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
My guess: Hernendez released, Sowers optioned to AAA, Stanford and Mujica (if healthy) recalled

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
My guess.  I don't mind giving Oldberto a couple more looks.  Actually, I think that's what'll happen.  I adjust my guess.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I understand the thought of giving Oldberto a few more looks.  He's just done nothing to convince me we're going to see something new.

by mplswahoo on Jun 3, 2007 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Mastny has basically supplanted him as the setup guy, but Oldberto's recent suckitude kind fits in with recent trends.  He's had some good outings too, and there's no obvious replacement.  I'd rather we keep him around for low-leverage duty.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
wow.  this has gotten considerably worse while i stepped out.  what the hell is wrong with the indonesian?

by emil minty on Jun 3, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
how huge was friday's win now?  i remember thinking, man i'm glad we stole that one because all those righties against lee and sowers scares me...

by Brick. on Jun 3, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Ferd:  30K, 21H in 21.1 IP.  Now, if he can just get that control back...

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Another random question:  How long does Trot stay in the #5 slot against righties?  It's starting to wear a bit thin on me.

And relatedly, is the vs. lefties outfield likely to be comprised of Gutz and Michaels, or is that just wishful thinking?  I think it was Sheldon Ocker today, who said that with Marte likely to stay in Buffalo for much of the season, that either Delucci/Nixon would see a fair amount of time against lefty starters.  I'd be hard-pressed to understand how that's in this team's best interest.

by mplswahoo on Jun 3, 2007 3:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I think Ocker's talking out of ass about Marte. He's already hit 2 homeruns and a few doubles in Buffalo, I think. Blake isn't going to hit this well all year and I suspect Marte will force the issue.

If he doesn't come up it will be because he doesn't hit, not because Wedge/Shapiro have made a choice now that he's staying there all year.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
i agree with you part way.  i think there will come a point when blake is eating it at the plate up here and marte is tearing it up down there.  i just don't think a roster change will be made at that point.

by emil minty on Jun 3, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
If necessary, I will drive up to Cleveland from Atlanta, build a 1:1 model of Oldberto's locker in the Jacob's Field parking lot, fire Roberto and set it on fire.

He needs to go.

by gte619n on Jun 3, 2007 3:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
As bad as he's been of late, the bullpen needs quantity.  The season is so, so long.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
not to mention the veteran leadership needed in the Pen.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
what is wrong with you guys we are in 1st?  
Fan in Texas

by fanintexas on Jun 3, 2007 3:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Seriously.

And the cavs are going to the finals!

Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I don't think it's a question of wrong or right, but instead a question of how to utilize available talent to optimally construct a 25-man roster on a first-place team - all the while cognizant that the season is so very long.

by mplswahoo on Jun 3, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I'm pretty chilled out right now.  A little hung over, maybe, but content.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
With the Cavs-Pistons series, we've just seen what playoff-level competition can be.

Does the Tribe have the bullpen to get into the World Series and win it? What moves do we have to make to get this thing done?

by ploni on Jun 3, 2007 3:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
It's an interesting analogy you make since I am still in the camp of Lebron having no supporting cast

by Roger Dorn on Jun 3, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Hmmm.

Lidge is too classy to demand a trade, but even when he tap dances around the question it's clear that he'd welcome it.

Moreover, it's clear that he's confident enough now to assure you that he can go close for the Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves or anybody else interested in a premier closer who has seemingly regained the form that made him an All-Star in 2005.

"I just want to make clear that my preference would be to be the closer here," said Lidge, who has pitched seven consecutive scoreless innings over his last six outings. Moreover, he has given up only two earned runs over 21 1/3 innings since April 22.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 3, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I just think Lidge is going to be too expensive.

I see Otskua as a much more feasible solution.

by gte619n on Jun 3, 2007 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
A Magglio Ordonez triple crown discussion. There's an exercise in irrelevancy.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 3:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I'm still intrigued by the Lee-in-the-bullpen option.  Given his contract, however, I think he might need several more poor outings before that happens.  But if it's costing us a few in the "W" column, I don't know that his contract is a satisfying rationale to keep him in the rotation.

Also, I like Perez in the pen.

by mplswahoo on Jun 3, 2007 3:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Nice catch, Grady!
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 3:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
He would be best served if he refrained from opening his mouth, for fear that he might say something.

by mplswahoo on Jun 3, 2007 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
There we go.  Bonderman at 100+; becoming vulnerable?

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Blake's banged up, and he's a LH vs. a RHP

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Right, but he's a LH that sucks.

What happened to Blake? Is he ok?

by gte619n on Jun 3, 2007 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
i speculated earlier that he got the day off after taking the knee to the beard in the first game of the series, then taking a fastball to the chest in the second game.  just speculation, but i asume he has a couple bruises.

by emil minty on Jun 3, 2007 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Nothing serious. Standard procedure.  Rouse is a slick glove and Sowers was pitching today, and Bonderman is tough so you'd want to throw some lefties at him.  That's the theory, I guess.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
How does this sound for a late-season/playoff roster?

Starters:

  1. C.C. Sabathia
  2. Fausto Carmona
  3. Paul Byrd
  4. Jake Westbrook
  5. Adam Miller
Bullpen:
  1. Cliff Lee
  2. Joe Borowski
  3. Rafael Betancourt
  4. Fernando Cabrera
  5. Aaron Fultz
  6. Tom Mastny
  7. Rafael Perez / Ed Mujica
Catchers
  1. Victor Martinez
  2. Kelly Shoppach  
Infielders
  1. Josh Barfield
  2. Casey Blake
  3. Ryan Garko
  4. Jhonny Peralta
  5. Mike Rouse
Outfielders  
  1. David Dellucci
  2. Franklin Gutierrez
  3. Jason Michaels
  4. Trot Nixon
  5. Grady Sizemore
Designated Hitter  
25. Travis Hafner

by Brick. on Jun 3, 2007 3:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I like it - and I'd take it now if that was possible.  

It's probably pretty close to what our playoff roster would consist of - although I'd be suprised if Shapiro doesn't make a move or two before the trade deadline.

by mplswahoo on Jun 3, 2007 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Has Lee ever pitched out of the bullpen?

by gte619n on Jun 3, 2007 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
i hope gutz sticks that long.
andrew noted that we've discussed the lee to the pen thing at length already.  i need to catch up on my reading apparently.  i personally don't get it.  is the theory that he looks gassed early in games, and moving him to a one or two inning role might pick up his declining K rates?  not sure whether i buy that yet.  also, lefties are killing him this year, so i don't see him in a situational role.

by emil minty on Jun 3, 2007 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
i would love gutz as a pinch running/defensive option late in games

by Brick. on Jun 3, 2007 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
i think the problem is that wedge has tended to limit him to that role, and he doesn't see a lot of ABs for a kid his age.  and if casey is going to be everyday at 3b, we need a RH corner to spell trots on a semi-regular basis.  i personally prefer gutz over ben in that role with this caveat:  if wedge trusts ben to spell trots more often than he trusts gutz, i would prefer ben.  

by emil minty on Jun 3, 2007 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Well, I think part of it is the lesser of two evils. If either Sowers or Lee is going to the 'pen, Lee is the far better candidate. We know he has stuff, or at least used to.

It's a lot of wishful speculation though; that his FB would pick up a couple of tics, etc.

by afh4 on Jun 3, 2007 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
It might improve his stuff. I have the sense that Cliff has responded to the "get deeper" criticisms simply by taking something off, which doesn't play to his style at all. Put him in the pen, let him know he's only got an inning or two to worry about, and he could let loose. He's not a control guy, after all. Heck, in his good innings, I wonder if he'd make a decent closer.

by fleerdon on Jun 3, 2007 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I also like it. But what's Miller's finger going to be then?

by ploni on Jun 3, 2007 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Less of a fake injury than it is currently, I'd wager.

by fleerdon on Jun 3, 2007 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Ledezma is wild, wild wild.  Take, take, take.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Hell of an AB from Sizemore.  Now we need a little Jhonny P magic...

by APV on Jun 3, 2007 3:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Let's go, Jhonny!
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 3:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I'm guessing Peralta hits the Grand Slam here since I traded him off my Fantasy team and today is the first day I don't have him.
Dominating both LGT Fantasy Baseball Leagues.

by mjmarble on Jun 3, 2007 3:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Should have predicted rather than guessed
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
The Tigers TV crew laughed the other day when they had Ledezma at 96 on the gun

by APV on Jun 3, 2007 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Well shit
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 3:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Turk, I have that song if you want to coordinate getting it

by Roger Dorn on Jun 3, 2007 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Absolutely. Can we talk via e-mail?

PKehres@gmail.com

Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Sure you should be expecting an email shortly.

by Roger Dorn on Jun 3, 2007 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
please include a recent picture of yourself

by Brick. on Jun 3, 2007 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Cool man, thanks!
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Shit.
Dominating both LGT Fantasy Baseball Leagues.

by mjmarble on Jun 3, 2007 3:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
2 more innings, 5 runs down, middle of the order coming up.  Bonderman out of the game.  Todd jones, anyone?  

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 3:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Fred is absolutely maddening. How in the world can he look so good, then so terrible??

by gte619n on Jun 3, 2007 3:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Sorry about all the Sowers-hating.  Some positives:  the bullpen's looked good today, and we're 15-5 in the division.  And, as mentioned earlier, The Cavs are in the FINALS--the freaking FINALS!--and the Tribe is in 1st.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 4:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Exactly, good man!
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Mastny has looked tired recently. Not useless, not "gassed," exactly. Just like it's taking a lot of effort to get the ball to the plate. I wonder if he couldn't use a longer break to get his groove back, but there's no time to give it to him.

How good does Perez look, though? A couple more innings like that and he'll need a realtor in Cleveland.

by fleerdon on Jun 3, 2007 4:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
This game pretty much sucks my balls
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 4:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Some observations!
Hello everyone,

It's not officially over yet, due to a rain delay, but it's probably not too early for some observations.  :-)

  1. It probably would have been Sowers anyway who would have been sent back to Buffalo even if he had pitched somewhat well over his next start or two, but with today's performance, I'm guessing it'll be Sowers who will head to Buffalo and Lee will "work on his stuff" here, though Lee really is doing no better than Sowers, and to me, his stuff doesn't seem much better than Sowers either.  Why isn't he using his curveball more?  That makes no sense to me.

  2.  You know Pronk still isn't right when he's chasing obvious balls up and out of the strike zone like he did in one of his at-bats today on a 3-2 count.  Will he ever find his 2006 form this year or will he be inconsistent/streaky the entire year?

  3. Just like Fultz can't seem to handle bases-loaded situations too well, it might be better to keep Borowski out of non-save situations.  He seems to have an allergic reaction to them.  :-)

Just my 2 cents.
Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Jun 3, 2007 4:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Some observations!
The key stat is that Cliff Lee records 5.13 k/9 this season, and Sowers comes in at a woeful 2.25.  Sowers has done a little better with the hits, HR, and walks allowed, but not significantly.  Lee averages 5.2 IP / start to Sowers' 5.1 IP.  

Cliff has a narrow edge, and I believe he has the better chance of improving.

by homelytourist on Jun 3, 2007 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Neither has great stats and neither is doing well!
Hello homelytourist,

I can understand your point about Lee having the better chance to improve based on his past success at the ML level, but he doesn't seem to be the same pitcher at all from even 2 years ago when he won 18 games.  As mentioned, he's not even using his curveball, which was a big K pitch from him (might partly explain why his K rate keeps falling every year; 8.09 in 2004 to 6.37 in 2005 to 5.79 in 2006.)

In addition, while Sowers' velocity will likely never increase enough to improve his margin for error stuff-wise, he just turned 24, compared to Lee being 28, so if anyone could improve just based on being young enough, it would be Sowers.  

In addition, Sowers arguably might have been promoted a bit too quickly - yes, his W-L record and ERA deserved a promotion, but his BB/K ratio was an underlying indicator that maybe he wasn't quite ready, and while expecting him to strike out a batter per inning is unrealistic, he did strike out 7.65/9 IP at AA, which is normally the level a pitcher's K rate will fall off precipitously, not AAA.  It also seems unusual to me for a pitcher's K rate to fall off that much going from AA to AAA; you could expect a slight drop-off, but 2.5 K/9 IP seemed to indicate that Sowers may not have been as ready to make the jump from AAA to the Majors as his W-L record and ERA were suggesting.

I hope Lee rebounds, but the biggest problem I have with him is that his K rate has been declining for a few years and he's really been in his current rut for over a year now.  He doesn't look like that #2-#3 starter who can go out, give 6-7 quality innings, and strike out anywhere from 5-9 guys in 6-7 IP.  We're lucky now to even get 5-6 quality innings from Lee on a regular basis, and by then, he's usually pushing or over 100 pitches.  With his rut being this long, I'm not confident we'll see that dominant Lee we seen 2-3 years ago, though I hope I'm wrong on that.

Just my 2 cents.  :-)

Go Tribe! :-)

by indiansfan on Jun 3, 2007 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I'll blame this loss on the rain
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 4:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
That's not rain, that's Sowers' pitches getting air mailed all over the stadium.

by Delluccious on Jun 4, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Guthrie has 1-hit Angels (no ER) through 5 innings.  Maybe he can pitch against good times.

He can replace Phillips as the former Indian flash point.

by palcal on Jun 3, 2007 5:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
followup:  Guthrie holds Angels to 3H, 2R (1ER) in 8 innings.  Closer blows save with HR to Vlad.

by palcal on Jun 3, 2007 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Guthrie just doesn't know how to win.

by Jay on Jun 3, 2007 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Out of curiosity, I watched the archive of Guthrie's start today (just his half-innings - one good feature of the archive is that you can "tivo" and select parts to watch).

I have to say I was pretty amazed and impressed, as were the Angels' announcers. The dude had command of 4 pitches for strikes, primarily using a mid-90's fastball that he could spot and a good slider that he used to either side of the plate. He maintained his stuff, hitting 97 in the 7th, and worked quickly with great tempo, making several nice fielding plays and holding runners with a good move to first.

It's a shame we didn't control him for another year - I don't know for sure, but I think that was because we got Boras'd into signing him to a ML contract when we drafted him. I always liked him - even when he went through his AAA troubles I always thought he was a real horse if he'd only get his shit together. He certainly did today, er, yesterday.

by mcrose on Jun 4, 2007 3:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
well! not waking up in time to catch the game turns out to have been a good idea.
Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.

by AngG on Jun 3, 2007 6:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Not waking up in time, eh? Big partying last night?
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 3, 2007 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
No. Driving home from Cleveland got me home around 3am, and then it took me until about 6am to finally get to sleep. Also, I'm lazy.
Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.

by AngG on Jun 3, 2007 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
lol, I hear ya. Today was actually a very wierd day for me... I got up at ten, which is amazing considering I usually sleep till about noon, and it's even more amazing since I was up till about 6:30 this morning. Sounds like you made good time getting back to Cinci.
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 4, 2007 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I do not live in Cincy. :) I just lived there in my youth. I currently live about an hour and a half south-west of Toledo.
Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.

by AngG on Jun 4, 2007 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Wow, color me embarassed! I retract anything I may have said about Cinci, then :-)

I knew you weren't from Cleveland. I have a habit of glossing over details.

Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 4, 2007 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
It's okay. I understand how my use of "y'all" and Bengals fandom would have confused you. :)
Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.

by AngG on Jun 4, 2007 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I don't think we can be friends anymore.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2007 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
i'm not sure which is more reprehensible - the use of y'all or the fandom of the bengals...

by Brick. on Jun 4, 2007 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
They both are. It's too bad, she was really turning into a good contributor.
I've changed my mechanics and now I throw over 100.

by Brad D on Jun 4, 2007 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I'm not sure what to think anymore...
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 4, 2007 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Both of y'all suck.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 4, 2007 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Are you a sweetened tea drinker Mike?
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 4, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Hell no!  I live in Texas.  We drink unsweetened tea, eat tacos for breakfast instead of Waffle House, and barbecue beef instead of pork.

I did pick up this "y'all" habit, though, and it's pretty handy.  I say "fixin' to" on occasion, too.

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 4, 2007 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I picked up "fixin' to" from my mom, who picked it up in Georgia. It's a fun phrase to say!

("Y'all," however, I picked up in upstate New York. Uh... we started using it in translation exercises in Greek and Latin because "you (plural)" is unwieldy, and next thing you know, I've picked up "y'all." Straaaange!)

Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.

by AngG on Jun 4, 2007 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
So you pass on the sweet tea too?
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 4, 2007 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I rather like sweet tea, actually. :)
Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.

by AngG on Jun 4, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Ok, then you can say y'all all you want.  Where's nctribefan?  He'll back me up with some love for the sweet tea.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 4, 2007 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I gotcha on that one.  Sweet tea:me as nectar:hummingbird.

by NickFantana on Jun 4, 2007 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Not only does my wife say "ya'll" and "fixin to", but she occasionally "reckons" and you don't want to hear the accent when she gets really mad...
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 4, 2007 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
But what can I say, I found her in North Carolina.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 4, 2007 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I can almost hear the banjo's.
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 4, 2007 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
If only you could hear her cussin' you now...
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 5, 2007 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Y'all in my language pretty much means you're a sweet tea drinker.  Which I am.  No apologies.  I lived in NM for a while as well though and developed a strong appreciation for the red chili.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 4, 2007 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I had to go back and look to see if I'd wrote "sweat". At first, I thought I must have made an embarrassing spelling error.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 4, 2007 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
never fear - 'tis just i who can't spell.

by Brick. on Jun 4, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
There are some places here that serve sweet tea, but usually it's unsweetened (which I prefer).  

by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jun 4, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I didn't think that they sweetened the tea in Austin.  That just didn't sound right.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 4, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
oh, okay, fine. :(

y'all.

Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.

by AngG on Jun 4, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I'd hate to lose you.  I think you should give up the Bengals.

I made a musician I work with give up his Yankees cap.  Have to have standards.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2007 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I think we should instead focus on the things we have in common. For example: I also hate the Steelers.
Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.

by AngG on Jun 4, 2007 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Come on, it's not like you'd be giving up a real team, like the Packers or something.  It's only the Bengals.

by Jay on Jun 4, 2007 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
But I like them.
Disclaimer: this post doesn't mean what you think it means.

by AngG on Jun 4, 2007 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Who - dey, who - dey, who dey gonna arrest next?
Sometimes you just gotta be lucky

by mauichuck on Jun 4, 2007 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Ha ha, nice
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Jun 4, 2007 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
New poster here, not to be confused with the "real" Jay.  Getting back to the comments on Sowers...was he lucky last year?  Certainly.  But to suggest that "this is what he is" is a little over-the-top in my opinion.  He's truly a guy with a 6.63 ERA, and he just overachieved by 3 runs in 2006?  

I don't live in the area, but I see at least parts of most every game.  To me, his stuff isn't what it was last year...and I realize he's not a "stuff" guy.  But after a couple of starts last year, I remember him throwing 88 pretty regularly.  This year it's more like 85.  With his delivery, hitters had a tough time picking him up.  He'd get a lot of hitters to be late and pop up or he'd jam them and get them to bounce to third.  That isn't happening much this year.

A couple of more things support this theory...his K rate in 2005 was over 8 per 9 innings, including 7.65 per 9 innings in AA...he wasn't striking that many guys out with the stuff he's showing now, that's for sure.  Also, the stuff he's showing now wouldn't get him drafted in the first round...twice.  His numbers this year support it as well...his GO/FO ratio is way down this year, and his K rate is also way down (unbelievably).  Also, his walk rate is up, which could be the result of worse stuff.

Basically, I think he's either got a tired arm, is hurt, or is way out of whack mechanically.  None of that is fatal.  Hopefully his stuff will return later in the year in Buffalo, assuming that he'll be there shortly.  I think he can turn into a pitcher with an ERA in the low 4's, especially if he can improve that vastly inadequate change-up.  But if they need to move him to get a quality set-up guy, I wouldn't be opposed to it because he isn't a high-ceiling guy.  But it's not just as simple as saying that he was lucky last year.  He's been unlucky this year to a degree, but his stuff is off as well.

Getting my money's worth on my first post...

by TribeJay on Jun 4, 2007 11:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
If you really wanted to distinguish yourself from Jay, should have gone by OtherJay rather than TribeJay.  Either way, hell of a first post.  My question with Sowers and the statistics would be whether its a loss of stuff or a loss of control.  To me, more than anything its an issue of missing spots rather than not having the stuff to pitch effectively.  A belt high hanging curve is hittable no matter how much it breaks.

by NickFantana on Jun 5, 2007 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
FIP-ERA is -1.11

He's not this bad.....but he's been pretty damn bad.
looking at his xFIP would make the difference worse, so I didn't bother. Anyways, he's probably going to have to be sent down. Its not the worst thing in the world,, It could be that he just needs to get on a hot streak again with his accuracy and drop that BB rate. I honestly think his K rate is a function of his BB rate, He doesn't have the control he had last year (including his stint in AAA last year). The positive side of me will say that you get this kid down in AAA and let him regain some success with that BB rate and you'll see an improvement in his K rate and overall success.

by hans on Jun 5, 2007 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
But if I keep saying he's "missing spots"  more than last year doesn't that mean I get to ignroe things like FIP?

by afh4 on Jun 5, 2007 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
His FIP is still one of the worst in the league for qualified starters, so I am in no way saying that this is a complete mirage that he is doing this bad. Just saying that his 6.63 ERA isn't all his fault. He's doing bad. real bad. I know from your past posts that you really don't like his chances to be a quality starter, and I really can't argue with you about that. I'm just throwing a little perspective out there, and would like to give an oppinion that when things go bad they tend to go real bad, rolling down the hill bad. I'm reserving judgements based on what Sowers can be until I see him given a chance (in AAA) to put together a few good starts in a row and build confidence (or sort out any mechanical "bad habits" that he may have picked up). I do however respect your point that he's at the age where pitchers normally have hit there progression and there typically isn't too many surprises from here on out. I'd like to see him finish out the year AAA and then make a more solid judgement of his abilities.

by hans on Jun 5, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Yeah, I don't mean to be contentious. Well, that doesn't make sense. I obviously meant to be contentious. But maybe I shouldn't be so contentious.

As you've picked up on, I'm very frustrated with Sowers and with the apologies for Sowers. I think there are good ways to apologize for him, I just don't think "where are the pop outs, groundouts to third, etc from last year?" is a real great one. Those aren't things he was doing in the first place. I probably subscribe to the McCracken no-control-over-balls-in-play theory a little bit close than I should but I still can't bring myself to believe there are adjustments Jeremy can make to suddenly start inducing groundouts or flyouts.

Somebody like Carmona, you can convince me. Because that pitch is disgusting nasty. But Sowers, I just don't see a good reason he can take that stuff and routinely get major leaguers to create outs in play.

by afh4 on Jun 5, 2007 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I don't understand how you can make a sarcastic comment about my post talking about him missing his spots when Hans says in his post that he thinks his control has been worse than last year.  What is the difference between worse control and missing spots?  While we're talking about it, from what I understand about FIP-ERA, a negative number indicates a negative amount of luck on balls in play.  Let me know if I'm missing something about this statistic.

by NickFantana on Jun 5, 2007 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
your right about the FIP-ERA, I'm trying to make a point that failure tends to attract failure (Sowers bad pitching has also taken place with some bad fielding, bad luck, etc.) So to take his ERA at face value and say this guy is the worst guy in the league is a little off.

by hans on Jun 5, 2007 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Please note that I did not mean to say that anyone has said "this guy is the worst guy in the league". I kind of just threw that on there.

by hans on Jun 5, 2007 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Sorry, while I was writing my response to afh4 you posted your response to him so it looks like I'm responding to you, but I'm really responding to afh4.  Appreciate your response though.

by NickFantana on Jun 5, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
It wasn't in any direct reference to you. It's the same words everyone uses, all the time, when a pitcher who doesn't get strike outs suddenly loses his miraculous ability to induce groundouts and popouts after he's put men on base.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

It's a rare pitcher who controls balls in play and I don't see any reason why Sowers is that pitcher. Do I want him to be good? Yeah, obviously.

But all this anecdotal musing about his velocity being down, about him not being able to jam hitters or make them reach for balls, etc, it's all just tiresome. He left 78% of men on base last year. He was in the bottom 5 of AL starters in terms of strikeouts.

He has to change what he's doing as a pitcher, period. Not revert to where he was last year, change substantially from even that.

If he could get his K's back to last year's rate and his walks down to last year's rate he'd probably be close a 4-5 starter, which his xFIP indicated he was last year (4.76). But that's assuming those deficiencies are due to him, not due to the league making adjustments.

Having a a negative value for FIP-ERA isn't worth much when your ERA is over 6, unless the value is over 2 or somethnig.

I'm becoming the official Sowers doomsdayer, which isn't what I want to be. But I just don't agree that this is all on Jeremy losing some velocity and losing control. He's always let a ton of balls into play in the majors and that's not going to work, regardless of if he's throwing 88 or 85 or if he's hitting all his spots.

Jeremy's best chance is to go to AAA and become a different pitcher. Get back to striking guys out, refuse to give up any walks, and try to become Paul Byrd. He needs to stop believing he's some kind of expert at inducing outs in play (if he's ever believed that).

I honestly think he might have changed who he was as a pitcher as he came up last year, pitching to contact because it was going good and a bunch of people like Joe Morgan kept talking about how masterful he was at it. It doesn't appear to me he's the same type of pitcher he was when he was drafted.

by afh4 on Jun 5, 2007 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
My response to what you've written is sort of off-topic but worth saying I think.

I think because of the nature of the internet and blog comment lists it's hard to truly communicate a point the first time around.  People usually find themselves using shorthand and leaving out large parts of their thought processes (myself foremost.)  So eventually, you'll have a misunderstanding escalate to a point where one person says "Oh, for Heaven's sake, I'll have to write an essay to resolve this."  I appreciate you being the first to blink in this instance as I honestly believe you know more about this stuff than I do.  

Regarding Sowers, I'm pretty sure we're in agreement about the future.  He's gotta go back down to AAA for the foreseeable future and if he doesn't make some adjustments (like you discussed specifically) then he's probably just a two-month flash in the pan.  I think the thing you wrote that was most memorable was that he's not the pitcher we drafted.  I kind of feel the same way about Marte right now and I think the silver lining is that the Indians' organizational depth is strong enough that these two guys can get right in AAA and we'll be no worse off, if not better, right now in Cleveland.

The more I think about it, I think the comment I'm responding to seems like the definitive summation of Sowers' struggles to this point.  I'd like to see you flesh out some stats and make a lil diary.

by NickFantana on Jun 5, 2007 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I know better than to try to make a whole diary out of my analysis; it's not near strong enough. I'm sure Jay or Ryan will eventually come around to it and drop the hammer with some truly enlightening anlaysis.

As you said, I don't think we're as far apart as it initially seemed. As I said to Hans, I'm just a little touchy about this idea that Sowers can make pitches to generate outs in play. I don't think it's a very productive way to think about him.

At any rate, good talk, see you out there. Cheers.

by afh4 on Jun 5, 2007 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
afh...

I didn't mean to come off as a Sowers apologist.  I just think there's more to the story than just luck.  In my opinion, his stuff was better last year and it allowed him to jam hitters better.  And yes, that's anecdotal.  Again, his K's are way down even from last year.

Can he strike out more hitters?  Yes...will it be enough to be a successful starter?  I'm skeptical, since he doesn't even have an average off-speed pitch.  But I think we all agree that he was lucky last year, he's been unlucky this year, and his K rate is down to an unbelievable low level.  Hopefully he'll regain velocity/command and get the K rate back up to a point where we can see if he can become successful.  We can also agree that his current peripherals give him no chance to be successful now.

by TribeJay on Jun 5, 2007 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
You can call me Andrew.

I guess I'd just point you towards the BPro link below. That's my whole take on pitchers and balls in play, excluding extreme groundballers.

by afh4 on Jun 6, 2007 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Andrew, the original McCracken piece is a little outdated.  It was brilliant and essentially correct, but it lacks nuance, and its most sweeping conclusions rests largely on overall sample noise and lack of detailed data.

Yes, if you absolutely equate all balls in play, it appears pitchers have no significant control over them.  But this falls apart pretty soon.  Grounders are not like line drives and line drives are not like fly balls.

In fact, long flies are a lot more like home runs than grounders, yet the McCracken method equates grounders and long flies while putting homers into an entirely separate category.  Obviously, that lack of nuance is a problem, which subsequent studies have tried to address.

Pitchers do in fact have a significant amount of control over balls in play, but you will still see wild variance year-over-year, as with batting average, which measures essentially the same events and has the same problems for the same reasons.

I would say:

  • Yes, Sowers was rather lucky last year.
  • Yes, Sowers has been rather unlucky this year.
  • Yes, Sowers seems to have other issues that are more significant that BABIP variance.
  • No, it is not a foregone conclusion that he can't be a good major league pitcher.

Sowers is still quite young -- not so young that we should expect him to get much stronger, but young enough to still be learning and developing, young enough to be a very good prospect if he were still at Buffalo.  In considering his long-term prospects, it's helpful to see him from that perspective.  He was never supposed to be a #2 starter anyway, he was supposed to be a 3-4 guy.

That said -- and I posted this months ago -- it should be considered a given that Sowers will have difficulty figuring out how to succeed long-term in the majors if he can't get more strikeouts.  And lacking Carmona's pure stuff, he'll have both more trouble raising his K rates and also more trouble getting away with having low K rates.

by Jay on Jun 6, 2007 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Yeah, I realize McCracken isn't totally correct. Still, it's more correct than a lot of other ways of looking at it and I think it might be enlightening for a guy with Sowers' lack of stuff.

Sowers put a ton of guys on base but always managed to get outs after he'd put them on. I fundamentally don't believe this was because of some kind of ability to "keep hitter's off-balance" when he needed to. I just think he got lucky.

I don't mean to make it seem like a foregone conclusion that Sowers is going to fail. As someone went on a rant about a long time ago in some thread, whatever I write I intend to have an "I think" implied. It's just my opinion after looking at the stats and watching him pitch. Anything could happen with Sowers; there's not some secret code in his stat line that guarantees he can't succeed.

I fence sit on a lot of prospects and young players. I just don't feel like doing that with Sowers.

While I kind of set up the McCracken thing as the lynchpin of my whole argument, it doesn't really need to be. I just wanted to refute this idea that Sowers is some magician who uses an 87 mph FB to force players to make outs and ground into double plays and that once he figures out how to do that again he'll be fine. As you said, there are a lot of significant issues with Jeremy; his inability to induce outs in play this year has exposed a lot of them.

I think we fundamentally agree that he's got to figure out a way to get K's and, since he's probably not going to get many even in the best of worlds, walk as few batters as possible.

I think Paul Byrd might end up being a great comp for Sowers; Byrd struggled a ton early in his career both starting and out of the bullpen, I assume because of his lack of stuff. He was very volatile year to year. Finally, when he got old and crafty, he figured out how to replicate success a little bit more regularly.

If Byrd once had way better stuff, scratch that.  

by afh4 on Jun 6, 2007 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I wouldn't sweat the "I think" part.  It should go without saying that whatever I write, I think.  Those who don't get that evidently don't usually think before they write.

I am a big fan of "feel" statements, though.  As in Sowers used to feel crafty, and now he just feels crappy.  And when you say Sowers always allowed a lot of baserunners, it makes me feel that you don't really love Sowers.

by Jay on Jun 6, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I feel like his twin might be pitching for us as some kind of joke.

by afh4 on Jun 6, 2007 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Andrew, I'm well aware of the McCracken study, and understand what you're saying.  I will dispute what you said about Sowers putting a ton of people on base...his WHIP last year was 1.19.  He STRANDED a ton of baserunners, and of course, as we've stated, his WHIP was helped by luck.

by TribeJay on Jun 7, 2007 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
feel, feel, feel,,,,feel my heat!

by hans on Jun 7, 2007 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I think Jeremy actually is trying to become Paul Byrd. He's been following him around the dugout like an imprinted duckling.

by mcrose on Jun 5, 2007 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Yeah, I've noticed that as well (or rather heard the commentators constantly noticing it). It's a start. Hopefully he can show Jeremy how to get that magical 5.0/1.0 K/9 to BB/9 ratio that Byrd has been riding all these years.

Also, I hope Jeremy adopts a similarly ridiculous old school wind up.

by afh4 on Jun 5, 2007 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
Damn right, I heard that the other night too.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 5, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
And somebody give Cliffy a hockey puck too since he seems to have forgotten his curve ball.
-Erik

by drerikbrady on Jun 5, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Game Thread: June 3, 2007
I can easily see them both in a remake of Eight Men Out.

by mcrose on Jun 5, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

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