FanPost

Why not to worry (too much) about Westbrook

Ok the guy has been up and down and pretty ugly on the surface. The injury he incurred this season has had to have had a marked impact on his performance. The most glaring stat that sticks out to me is his GB%, and more specifically how this year's number compares to his previous three years.
Year  GB%    LD%
2004  62.6   14.1
2005  63.3   18.0
2006  60.8   17.3
2007  51.9   21.5

Thats a significant difference. To illustrate the importance of this further here is the likelyhood of getting a hit off of a GB and a LD using 2006 league averages.

Type        % of BIP  H% on BIP   H% as BABIP
Line Drive  15.89%    74.77%      0.748
Ground Ball 41.24%    23.62%      0.236

Now look at his BB/9 over the past four years:

Year  BB/9
2004  2.7
2005  2.4
2006  2.3
2007  3.9

Thats a pretty crazy jump, right?. Based on regression toward career mean, we should expect him to regain some of his control (barring any problems associated with physical injury) and lower that number. The same can go for his GB%. The differences vs. career numbers are just too staggaring. He's posted above or close 100 ERA+ numbers for the past two years. He should improve his performance (barring any injury related problems) closer to his career numbers through the rest of the season.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Let's Go Tribe

You must be a member of Let's Go Tribe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Let's Go Tribe. You should read them.

Join Let's Go Tribe

You must be a member of Let's Go Tribe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Let's Go Tribe. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker