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Around SBN: Knicks Beat Lakers With Familiar Strategy

Lofton Leading Off!

Colbertcolbertcolbert_tiny by tobytobytoby on

http://blog.cleveland.com/sports/2007/08/lofton_takes_over_leadoff_spot.html

Should be interesting to see if this continued tinkering with the lineup leads to more runs or more of the same.

Star-divide

Although not the biggest Wedge fan, I do appreciate the fact that he is willing to explore all the options (although sometimes he is slow to react to the problems at hand). I am certainly looking forward to seeing how the team reacts to this tonight.

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Re: Lofton Leading Off!
Question relating to this move and Sizemore - is it wise to have guy leading the league in strikeouts hitting third? While I think Grady has always projected as a #3 hitter, his strikeouts in #3 spot worry me, as he's going to have to get guys around and in to score more often and will need to make better contact to do so. At the end of the day, his strikeouts at any spot in the lineup are worrysome, so I'm not sure if there is a correct answer to this question.

by millionairesrow on Aug 14, 2007 5:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
At the end of the day, his strikeouts at any spot in the lineup are worrysome.

You might get burned for that one. I worry a lot more about what Grady hasn't been doing when he DOES hit the ball, but I've never really understood the argument about strikeouts from a run-probability perspective.

I think, in any event, this move has a lot more to do with a scouting report on the opposing pitcher than it does with Grady's K rate.

by fleerdon on Aug 14, 2007 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
In any case, Adam Dunn has proved an efficient middle-of-the-order hitter.

by nickjs21 on Aug 14, 2007 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
In the past, my main objection to doing something like this (trading for Carl Crawford, etc.) was that the left-right thing was unworkable.  That is, you really don't want Grady and Pronk back-to-back, so if Grady's 3rd, Pronk is no higher than 5th, and then you have our best hitter batting 5th.  Pronk has "solved" this dilemma by not being our best hitter this season, so I don't really have a problem with it.

I think more generally, I don't know why we'd want Lofton and Blake 1-2 when that pushes Garko down to 6th, Peralta to 7th.  I get that they see a lot of pitches, but it seems to me there must be a limit on how valuable it is to have that guy batting in the first inning.  Wedge almost acts like it's the whole ballgame.

by Jay on Aug 14, 2007 5:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
That Pronk. What a problem solver.

by afh4 on Aug 14, 2007 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
I'm not objecting to trying anything. Anyway, we'll see if my theory on Grady benefiting from being moved down is correct.
I heard that L.Carr is only going to dress 25 players this Sat........the rest can dress themselves!

by gahnki on Aug 14, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
This is one of the topics I've never really picked a side on, and I'm still open to convincing either way.  That being said, it will take many, many games in the 3-hole to decide if there is a benefit.

by nickjs21 on Aug 14, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
You're certainly right about that. I am mixed on doing it in the middle of a season. I'm not sure if the results would be what they could be if he started the season in the 3-hole. Kind of a tongue twisting sentence. I just know that something must change. Either in how we approach games or the actual players on the field.
I heard that L.Carr is only going to dress 25 players this Sat........the rest can dress themselves!

by gahnki on Aug 14, 2007 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
"That being said, it will take many, many games in the 3-hole to decide if there is a benefit."

Looks like you've been trained well in SSS.  :)

by SpringTrainingFun on Aug 15, 2007 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
Sorry to make you repeat yourself, but what is your theory on how it will help Grady?

by Jay on Aug 14, 2007 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
I think it will help his run producing ability. He is great at driving the ball and he can hit for power better than most leadoff hitters. If Lofton and Blake get on I am confident that Grady will drive them in. I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed it, but his approach with runners on base seems to be vastly different than his regular one. He seems to use the whole field instead of just driving the ball.

I also think that it may help him mentally, because people will lay off him for striking out so much. He won't be chastised for being a leadoff K machine.

I heard that L.Carr is only going to dress 25 players this Sat........the rest can dress themselves!

by gahnki on Aug 14, 2007 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
I meant that he uses the whole field instead of just pulling the ball. I'm trying to type my theory and watch the game.
I heard that L.Carr is only going to dress 25 players this Sat........the rest can dress themselves!

by gahnki on Aug 14, 2007 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
It must be said: clearly it's time to party like it's 1999.
Railing against the sacrifice bunt since 2000.

by jdudas on Aug 14, 2007 6:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
"It doesn't matter, none of this matters..."

by hans on Aug 15, 2007 12:50 AM EDT reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
"Let's light this candle..."

Seriously, though, I don't have a problem with Lofton leading off (I realize it's easy after it creates the only runs the night before).  I do think we need a different #2 hitter, but I'm not sure who fits best there.

by painaxl on Aug 15, 2007 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
Alright I'm feeling ridiculous this morning....

Gomez For the 2-Hole Campaign starting right now.

by supermarioelia on Aug 15, 2007 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
I can't figure out why no one has nominated Garko to bat second.  
LeBron must GO!

by mauichuck on Aug 15, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
I was kind of implying it.  I think he'd be a fine choice to bat second, particularly as perhaps the second-best pure contact hitter on the team (after Victor).

by Jay on Aug 15, 2007 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
Let me answer my own question.  It's because no one on this site believes he can keep it up, based on his AAA stats.
LeBron must GO!

by mauichuck on Aug 15, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
I think you're overrating any anti-Garko sentiment that might exist. I haven't heard anyone questioning his ability to keep up this pace. I certainly don't have doubts he can do it.

I mean, he's not unbelievable. Somewhere between an .800 and .900 OPS certainly seems reasonable for him at this point. A middle of the road, maybe slightly better, starting first baseman.

by afh4 on Aug 15, 2007 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
Lots of people here like Garko.  I've been a skeptic -- or at least, I've tried to keep expectations on the reasonable side -- but he's not only delivered, he seems to have actually developed as a hitter.

I did a little post a few months ago about how lousy his walk rate was, cautioning that his early numbers looked kind of flukey, and that he was likely to struggle if he didn't get more selective.  He did struggle for a while, but he responded by getting a lot more selective.

His second-half walk rate is double the first-half, and in part because of that, his second-half numbers are just outstanding -- 1012 OPS, and even if you BABIP-normalize it, it's still 915 -- and it's not clear a full BIP regression is really appropriate for him.

Anyway, it's only 112 PA, but he's been really, really good, and unlike April-May, there's nothing all that flukey about it.  It would be great to have a 900-plus hitter on the team that was more of a contact hitter.  Not so much a power hitter as a "hard contact" hitter.

He also leads the league in HBP with 15.

by Jay on Aug 15, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
"He also leads the league in HBP with 15."

Another benefit of being chunky - they have more meat on their bones and they're not afraid of being hit.    : )

by SpringTrainingFun on Aug 15, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
Because Wedge isn't going to do it. Wedge should bat Sizemore followed by V-Mart followed by Garko. but would he ever do it? no way. You know know he'd sneak the blakesteria in there!

by hans on Aug 15, 2007 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
The ultimate lineup shakeup - we're desperate ...

DH Hafner
SS Peralta
C  Martinez
CF Sizemore
2B Cabrera/Gomez
LF Lofton/Michaels
1B Garko
3B Blake
RF Gutierrez

by SpringTrainingFun on Aug 15, 2007 1:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Re: Lofton Leading Off!
We know that Lofton is leading off tonight and probably will be for awhile given the deliberation with which Wedge make changes.

I would think Cabrera and Gomez may start playing side by side and not platooning.

He need to figure who to drop on August 25 when he needs a 5th starter.

by palcal on Aug 15, 2007 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

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