Shapiro and the Draft
With all the talk about the draft deadline, and the porcello signing in particular, I had read some posters complaints of Shapiro's drafts, and I started to get curious about how those drafts have turned/turning out.
I started with the 2006 draft and stopped at the 2001 draft which I believe was the first official Shapiro draft. I have listed the notable players, along with where they are now, and some very crude commentary. It seems to me that are drafts haven't been as successful as they could be, but that might have something to do with the excellent job that Shapiro has done in Latin America, aquiring prospects via trades, or a reflection of the difficulties of the mlb amatuer draft. I don't think these are terrible drafts, but simply average, and given our successes in other areas, I would expect a little more. I haven't gone through other team's drafts during this time period, so maybe it is better than I than I think. I was wondering what the thoughts were on this?
2006 draft
- David huff-lhp-High A- hurt
- Josh Rodriguez-ss-high a-won't stay at short, but has hit for some power
- Matt Mcbride-c-low a-lot of doubles, no word on his d, should start next year at Kinston
- Steven Wright-rhp-has gotten hit pretty hard, but nice k/9
- Adam davis-ss/2b-low a-inconsistent year, going nowhere
- Ryan morris-lhp-young, looked good in rookie ball, hasn't had success at low a yet
- Jared Goedert-3b/2b-high a-tore up low a, hasn't had success at high a yet
- Trevor crowe-cf-aa-has not had success at aa yet for a full season. Struggled there to end last year, and first half of this year. Has picked it up of late, but still a major disappointment.
- John Drennan-of-at high a, young for his level, has struggled at high a, seems to have a hole in his swing, lots of ks.
- Steven head-1b-aa-never had success at high a, but got promoted anyway. Doubtful that he will ever contribute.
- Jensen Lewis-rhp-Cleveland-is a member of the Indians bullpen, should become a solid middle innings guy.
- Nicholas Weglarz-lf-low a-young and mashing the ball, has tremendous power and good eye, 3 true outcomes guy, might not be able to stay in left.
- Jordan Brown-1b/of-aa-is banged up right now, but has had a good year, high average, lots of doubles, but needs to turn some into homers. Would help if he can play left also.
- The rest-some college pitchers in high a, pitching okay, and an outfielder struggling in low a.
- Jeremy Sowers-lhp-aaa-had success with the big league club last year, despite bad peripherals, came back to earth and then some this year. Has been demoted, and can't seem to find the success he had there the first time around.
- Justin Hoyman-rhp-hurt I guess, haven't heard much from him.
- Scott Lewis-lhp-aa-pitched good, not great, but still only 23. Not sure if he will start next year in aa or aaa.
- Chuck Lofgren-lhp-aa-has hit a bit of a bump at aa, hasn't been able to match the success he had at lower levels, but still 21.
- Tony Sipp-lhp-hurt, but may still be a contributor from the pen.
- Mike Aubrey-1b-aa-he is hurt for the 27th time, and is probably done
- Adam Miller-rhp-aaa-hurt again, has massive potential, but needs to stay on the diamond.
- Brad Snyder-of-aaa-hurt, done.
- Ryan Garko-1b-Cleveland-is a major contributor for the tribe.
- Kevin Kouzmanoff-3b-San Diego-was traded, along with Andrew brown for Josh Barfield.
- Aaron Laffey-lhp-aaa-had a brief stint with Indians, should be a member of the 2008 rotation.
- Jeremy Guthrie-rhp-Baltimore-never contributed to the Indians
- Micah Schilling-2b-flop
- Matt Whitney-1b-high a-has started to play well at Kinston, 23, was set back by a freak accident in which is leg was broken badly. Hasn't shown plate discipline, but has hit for major power, and decent average this year between low and high a.
- Brian Slocum-rhp-aaa-hurt, but may still contribute, but not likely.
1. Luke scott used as part of trade for Jerome Robertson. Everything else is pretty much empty.
Feel free to add anyone that I have forgotten and sorry for the long first post.
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Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Also, anyone know Miller's status right now?
by Joe on Aug 18, 2007 3:00 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
by supermarioelia on Aug 18, 2007 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Snyder, Mulhern and Goleski are all going to have at least a cup of coffee at some point, maybe even Aubrey.
This is, by any standard, an enormously successful draft. If every draft was this productive, you could replenish your whole team with the draft alone very five years -- no free agents, no international signings and no trades.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Even the NHL where you rely entirely on the draft for talent, you'll be lucky to get that many guys pan out from a given year.
by supermarioelia on Aug 18, 2007 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
If the others in the draft pan out as well, then it is an exceptional draft. If they don't, the draft hinges on Garko, Barfield, and Laffey. That is all from my point of view, of course.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
You're going to make me quote my own last post:
In other words, this can't possibly be anything but an above-average draft, because if this were the average, there would be no international signings or veterans beyond five years.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Anyway, the Yankees are the worst possible team to compare our drafts to. We live and die by our farm system while the Yankees don't.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
So now we have folks saying on the one hand, the Indians should take more risks, which generally means high school guys, and on the other hand, you're saying you want the 2003 draft to help the 2007 club.
Well, you can't please everyone, that much is clear. Tell you what, why don't you check out how our divisional rivals are doing in that respect? Here's the links:
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
by homelytourist on Aug 20, 2007 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Aug 20, 2007 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
The 2003 draft has only provided our best hitter this year and our starting 2B. Even ignoring a couple spot starts from Laffey, that's more than a "moderate" amount of help!
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
by Joe on Aug 21, 2007 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
by Joe on Aug 21, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
You might think he hurt the team, but somebody's going to play 2B. Do you think he hurt the team by blocking Hector Luna? That ultimately is the question.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Victor Martinez has something to say about the best hitter on the team coming from the 2003 draft. He's waiting for you in the parking lot.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Unless the point is to twist every conversation around into saying something bad about a player or decision.
Not sure what you're talking about with Victor.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
You said that Ryan Garko is our best hitter this year. He has had a tremendous year, but I think that Victor would disagree with your statement. I'm not trying to twist anything, just stating that the 2003 draft has helped the 2007 Indians a moderate amount. For a small market club, we need to prosper in the draft. Our starting first basemen and formerly starting second basemen came from that draft. So did Laffey. Garko has certainly made that draft worthwhile and Barfield's performance is certainly important in regards to that draft. He is what we have gained from that draft, so he becomes part of that draft's value. This is all from my point of view, of course.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
I didn't realize Kouzmanoff had played so poorly, apparrently his defense was atrocious. I don't think he sticks unless he gets that turned around.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
What metric do you guys like? I have three!
- Errors. I consider myself a decently knowledgeable baseball fan so I would never just use this statistic to rate a player's defense. Still, I will use this statistic first to start things off simply. Of all 12 second basemen that qualify in the American League, Barfield is second to last in errors made! The guy can make all the pretty plays he wants but he has a propensity to mess up on some simple plays. He does have good range but his throwing ability is rather subpar.
- FRAA (or Fielding Runs Above Average). This statistic, created by Baseball Prospectus, is not the best metric in the world but it is a step up from errors. In this metric, Barfield is ranked 6th out of the 12 qualifying defenders at second base. That is barely above average, not "well above." Barely above average does not even come close to cutting it for one of the worst hitters in MLB.
- UZR (or Unlimited Zone Rating). This is the most advanced defensive statistic ever created. Tangotiger is the man behind this statistic. According to Unlimited Zone Rating, Barfield is the second worst second baseman in the American League. Just like he was according to errors.
by Joe on Aug 21, 2007 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Errors are not to be ignored, but you have to consider the effect of a (single-base) error as the same as turning an out into a walk. We emphasize this all the time as being really important, but the difference between between the most and least error-prone 2B is about two errors per month.
That equates to a difference of 20 points of OBP, out of one spot in the lineup. Signficant, but not enormously significant. The best and worst on-base guys are, of course, not 20 points apart, but more like 120 points apart.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
- Shapiro's first draft was 2002, although Mirabelli has had direct responsibility for that area for several years longer.
- There's way too much fan emphasis on the draft, which defines the talent stream in the NBA and NFL but is just one part of the picture for MLB. It has become less significant than international signings, and at least for these Indians, less significant than acquiring prospects in trades.
- You can't really judge a draft until 4-5 years out. You can start assessing it after 2-3 years, particularly the college guys, but certainly not the high school guys.
- Your evaluations of individual guys tend to be of the "what's happened in the past 45 days variety. I wouldn't disagree with many, but you have to take a very long view on player development to understand any part of it.
- It isn't a done deal that Josh Rodriguez won't stay at SS, but he has enough range for 2B and enough arm for 3B. If he keeps hitting, it's a big deal at any skill position.
- What makes you think Jensen Lewis only projects as a solid middle reliever? Hell, he just got here and is only 23, and he's already a solid middle reliever. His stuff, stats and age suggest he's a bona fide setup/closer prospect.
I think you would be surprised to find that only a handful of teams are really doing better than this, and those teams have done so with a raft of elite draft picks acquired through spending a half-decade in the cellar, e.g., Tampa Bay or Arizona. Anaheim and Atlanta are probably the best examples of getting good talent through the draft without top-five picks to work with.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
When you compare our top picks over the last 2-3 years to what was available, the general rule still seems to be "go safe", where the transition to pro ball (becoming a successfl minor leaguer) outweighs the potential as a major league player. Crowe, Drennen and Huff in particular reflect this: they were all safe bets to hit the ground running in the minors, but the eventual ML payoff does not seem to project to anything special.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Well said.
by CaptainEasy on Aug 18, 2007 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
We can talk all day about "blue chippers," but the Indians have an enormous number of young major leaguers. Guys like Peralta, Carmona and Perez were never considered blue-chippers by the scouterazzi, but should we care?
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
by Turkmenbashi on Aug 18, 2007 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
My observation is a pretty narrow one that the talent depth is already here, allowing for more risk in the initial phase of the draft.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
You think Brad Snyder and Adam Miller weren't high ceiling enough? Ridiculous. Snyder is a five-tool guy, Miller was a high school flamethrower. Those are the high-risk guys. The 2001 draft was chock full of high-ceiling high school pitchers, i.e., "busts."
If the Indians have been more conservative recently -- if -- it would only be because they want guys who can contribute in the next 2-6 years. Those generally will be college guys.
Keep in mind, also, that even after the "big rebuild" was done, the Indians continue to acquire prospects through trades whenever the opportunity presents itself. Hence Gutierrez, Brown, Dubois, Choo, Nottingham, Rosario ...
And, oh yeah ... AstroCab.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
The 2003 draft was an exceptional one for college hitters, and after we landed Aubrey at #11, arguably the best pure bat in the draft, Snyder wasn't that much of a risk considering the overall redundancy - we got Aubrey, Garko, Kouz, Snyder, Mulhern and Goleski on the same day. The only head scratcher was Javi Herrerra in the second round. No, in 2003 they could play it safe and use the third pick on Miller without incurring that much overall risk, because of the wealth of pro-ready bats they could draft.
A couple years later they could have drafted a Snyder-type guy that profiled well in tools and size for the major leagues - Travis Buck. A little more riding on the pick than in 2003 because it was their first pick and the depth of college bats not as great - and they went with Crowe, a slightly better college player than Buck, but with a lower ML ceiling.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
"The Indians signed two players over the $100,000 watermark, inking Dominican shortstop Ramon De Paula for $130,000 and Venezuelan lefthander Elvis Araujo ($125,000)."
De Paula is a "glove-first" shortstop, Araujo a projectable soft tossing lefty, both presumably heading for the Tribe's Dominican academy and DSL club.
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
by JulioBernazard on Aug 19, 2007 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Julio, by your logic, you should also be saying -- "Arthur Rhodes for Jason Michaels -- great trade."
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
I agree with the posters above that the 2003 draft looks very successful. As Jay pointed out, you already have two major league regulars. To put that in perspective, consider this: Garko and Kouzmanoff are both just short of 400 plate appearances this year, what I consider to be a regular. Before this year, the most recently drafted position player to become a regular - Dustan Mohr, marginally, a 1997 draftee who barely crossed the 400 PA threshold, for the first and last time, in 2002 (Ryan Church, class of 2000 also made it this year). Other than that, you have to go back to the first round pick of 1995, Sean Casey. It's hard to come up with solid major league talent in the draft, and to have two guys who are already demonstrating that level of ability from the 2003 draft is a big deal.
Considering that you've still got Miller looking like a future contributor, plus the possibility of Snyder, or Mulhern, or Goleski offering some upside, it looks like 2003 may be the best draft class since 1991.
by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Aug 18, 2007 11:33 PM EDT reply actions
Re: Shapiro and the Draft
by Gradyforpresident on Aug 19, 2007 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions

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