Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
Lee's start tomorrow will be our last piece of data to base the 25th and 30th decisions on. Let's say for the sake of simplicity that we're choosing one pitcher for both starts.
So who ya got?
My pick is Sowers by a nose over Laffey.
His success in AAA over the last month or so has been well-documented here. He's given them 6+ innings consistently, seen his K rates increase, kept his walks down, had great movement on his pitches, and allowed only 9 ER over his last 5 outings. I think we can all agree he's been great down there.
And his success against the M's and Royals doesn't hurt. 2.50 ERA career against KC in 18.0 IP (including a gem this year) and a complete game shutout last year against the M's. Yeah it's only 4 games, I know. And you could argue that Laffey being a new pitcher to both teams could be just as useful as Sowers' success. Laffey has been good in his last two starts in Buffalo as well. A few too many baserunners today for my liking, but he's been just as solid. Either way, I'll be happy seeing Sowers or Laffey on Saturday.
I can say pretty confidently that Cliff won't be chosen based on his career stats against KC. 5.35 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in 79.0 IP. I think he could still use a few more starts in Buffalo too....not everything is ironed out with him just yet.
Let's hear it...who ya got?
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67 comments
Comments
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Fundamentals on Aug 19, 2007 9:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by hans on Aug 19, 2007 9:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by palcal on Aug 19, 2007 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by fleerdon on Aug 19, 2007 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by gahnki on Aug 19, 2007 11:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
That said, I really do wish that Sowers is brought back - read all those things Lee is supposed to be above, place those expectations on Sowers and throw in the fact he's actually showing what he's supposed to? Yeah, give him the nod and let Laffey continue to grow and learn his craft down in the minors. This will also be a good gauge to see how much Sowers has improved.
by mjmarble on Aug 19, 2007 11:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
He may not get the call, but Sowers is finally showing some adjustment to Triple-A by raising his K rates. He's up to 6 K/9 on the season, but more significantly, he's up to 7.5 K/9 for his last six starts -- along with 6.2 IP per start and a 2.04 ERA.
I still wouldn't say he's dominating, but he's starting to put up numbers that look more like they can translate to sustained success in the majors.
by Jay on Aug 20, 2007 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
i'm less worried about who gets this call than i am with what the indians do if said pitcher sh!ts the bed in that start. then what? seems to me, lee has the most to prove. sowers has the least to loose, and laffey would have the most slack. now i'm rambling. i guess i'm asking what's plan B? probably need plan A to play out first, i guess. ramble complete.
by Brick. on Aug 20, 2007 1:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Jay on Aug 20, 2007 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Gradyforpresident on Aug 20, 2007 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by APV on Aug 20, 2007 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
/shamed
by APV on Aug 20, 2007 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
Nice "big picture" game for Buffalo yesterday ... box score ... Laffey actually struggled, 97 pitches in six innings with 11 baserunners, but still allowed only one run. I love "bad starts" like this from prospects.
Then Adam Miller comes in, strikes out the first two batters he sees, third guy out on an infield fly. Then Matt Miller comes in, allows two singles and a sac bunt, gets two groundouts to end the inning with no runs scored. Finally, Koplove, another scorless inning.
Also! Mike Rouse is on the roster, playing shortstop every day, and he got a double and a walk.
by Jay on Aug 20, 2007 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by supermarioelia on Aug 20, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Jay on Aug 20, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by supermarioelia on Aug 20, 2007 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
It doesn't really matter, though, because rosters expand to 40 a few days later. We're going to want to start the same guy on the 25th and 30th, but after that, we can call up everybody if we want.
by Jay on Aug 20, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Brick. on Aug 20, 2007 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
Then again, I can't say that I terribly care who we call up, as there are good arguments for all 3 guys.
by Thommy on Aug 20, 2007 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by supermarioelia on Aug 20, 2007 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by mauichuck on Aug 20, 2007 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by supermarioelia on Aug 20, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
I can't get behind that. It's a toss up considering the low number of starts and the fact that none of these guys are doing much in Buffalo to indicate an ability to succeed at the major league level. Lee and Sowers are both putting up decent numbers but they're both doing it with peripherals that don't look great. They each look great on occasion but neither has fully conquered the big problems pitchers have in transitioning-not enough K's, too many flyouts, too many walks, too many hits, etc. Sowers is on a decent run right now but is there any reason to believe that's any better predictor than Lee's decent stints in the majors this year?
And Laffey is just not ready.
I guess my point is, how can you be strongly against any of these guys right now? To me, it's a roll of the dice as to what we're going to get out of any of them and unless you really believe in trying to ride a hot hand (i.e. Sowers) from AAA to the majors they all look like similarly not so great bets.
by afh4 on Aug 20, 2007 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by supermarioelia on Aug 20, 2007 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by afh4 on Aug 20, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No offense, but how can you say Laffey is not
Hello Andrew,
No offense, but I think this statement:
"And Laffey is just not ready."
is way too strong; really, did Laffey do anything to knock himself out of the #5 spot? He gave us a chance to win both games, which is essentially what you ask for from your #5 starter. The main reason Laffey was sent back to Buffalo was because the Indians felt Laffey would be better served continuing to pitch every 5 days, rather than being skipped over. I don't think the Indians were disappointed by his performance or thought he wasn't ready to handle the Majors - otherwise, why didn't they bring up Sowers or Minor League veteran Jeff Harris, or even bring back Lee after just 1-2 AAA starts?
Looking at Laffey's AAA ratios:
H/9 IP = 8.32
BB/9 IP = 2.15
K/9 IP = 7.01
HR/9 IP = 0.47
I don't see why he couldn't handle the back-end of a rotation right now and do a decent to solid job back there. Like I said, did he really do that badly in two ML starts up here to declare "he's not ready"? I don't think so.
And Lee's great start against Anaheim was several months ago, by a guy who should be experienced enough to be doing better than what he is doing at this point. While most of his AAA stats are solid, his BB/9 IP definitely concerns me - 15 BB/25.0 IP, a 5.40 BB/9 IP ratio?! I don't see him pitching much better at the ML level than when he left. Even if he's working on his pitches and his sequence of attacking hitters, you'd think he wouldn't have that high of a BB rate against AAA hitters, not near the caliber of ML hitters. If AAA hitters are drawing that type of BB rate off of him, what would ML hitters do against him? Even if his BB rate would be lower, chances are, they'd hit his pitches coming over the plate better than the AAA hitters are doing - i.e. Lee can survive with a high BB rate down at AAA, but I doubt that translates well to the ML level, which says to me that Lee is not ready to return yet.
So, essentially, as you mentioned, all three have their strengths, but I don't think Lee is superior to the two just because he had some success at the ML level a while ago. He's really not the same pitcher, much like Sowers wasn't showing himself to be the same pitcher as he was last year when he was up earlier this year.
Personally, my order for that #5 spot would be:
- Laffey - was the #5 starter before he left and really did nothing to think he couldn't handle it.
- Sowers - has shown improvement at AAA and the Indians need to see if that improvement translates to the ML level.
- Lee - his BB rate must improve, or he'll likely get torched at the ML level just like he did before he was sent down.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
by indiansfan on Aug 20, 2007 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but how can you say Laffey is not
by hans on Aug 20, 2007 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but how can you say Laffey is not
by afh4 on Aug 23, 2007 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but how can you say Laffey is not
I can agree with the first part that he's not reached his ceiling based on age and what have you, but, the second part about whether he can be a contributor or not is more of a question of alternatives. If he, Lee, and Sowers are vying for the same 5th starter/playoff bullpen role, as of right now I think Laffey is the the one performing the best and deserving of the role. You can say that he might be able to perform at a level that meets your criteria of "contributing" but, I would argue neither would Lee or Sowers based on anything we've seen of them in the recent months.
by hans on Aug 23, 2007 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but how can you say Laffey is not
by afh4 on Aug 23, 2007 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That makes sense!
I see what you mean now - Laffey is not as good as he could be someday. That makes sense.
Still, with the way Lee has pitched for most of this season, and even parts of last season, I'm not sure he'll ever consistently find the form he had a few years ago, which is why I wouldn't mind trying him out in the bullpen - I think the increased velocity, just needing one breaking pitch, and going through a lineup 1-2 times at most could do wonders for him.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
by indiansfan on Aug 23, 2007 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but how can you say Laffey is not
by hans on Aug 24, 2007 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No offense, but how can you say Laffey is not
We are simply choosing to have him do a little more developing in the minors. He may get better still, but he's already a big leaguer in every way that's meaningful.
by Jay on Aug 23, 2007 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that!
I certainly think Laffey could hold his own at the back of a ML rotation right now; granted, he'd probably have his ups-and-downs, but what #4 or #5 starter doesn't? Heck, the #3s in many rotations have their ups-and-downs, and even better pitchers than that (i.e. #1s and #2s; look at Jeremy Bonderman's season as one example.)
I certainly don't think Laffey would be a bad choice for the #5 spot for the rest of this year if the Indians decide to go that route; besides that, Lee has given him this opportunity by pitching as poorly as he has - if Lee had pitched like we all expected him to pitch, Laffey or Sowers wouldn't have the chance to make the rotation at this time, which also suggests that Lee is no more of a sure bet to hold down that #5 spot better than Laffey or Sowers at this point because Lee hasn't looked anywhere close to what he was 2-3 years ago when he was striking out more guys and looking more like a quality #3-#4 starter.
Just my 2 cents.
by indiansfan on Aug 23, 2007 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
Sowers isn't at all lined up for the start and doesn't look like a better choice than the other two, anyway.
Main thing in my mind is that once they pick Lee or Laffey, the other one should move to the bullpen immediately, for possible use in September or postseason. (In either case, the move would be considered temporary.) Sowers is pitching well enough to be the #6 starter when we need him next month, and we'll be swimming in other available arms in case of some kind of pinch.
by Jay on Aug 20, 2007 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by APV on Aug 20, 2007 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
Sowers, by my count, has 169 days. That puts him just three days away from being credited with a full year, which means he hits free agency a year earlier. Then again, this assumes that he spends all of the next two seasons in the majors, which is by no means a given.
At any rate, the Indians may not see any great reason to give him an extra 25-30 days of service time when he isn't really in a position to help. That is, not necessarily one of our best five starters and seemingly not much of a fit for a significant bullpen role.
by Jay on Aug 20, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Jay on Aug 20, 2007 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Jay on Aug 20, 2007 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by gte619n on Aug 20, 2007 9:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
Has he really gotten that much worse, or has his luck (massive run support) just run out?
I lean toward Laffey. I won't scream if it's any of them, but I'd prefer Laffey.
by Julie on Aug 20, 2007 10:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by fleerdon on Aug 20, 2007 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
confidence = sinking fastballs.
nice write-up.
by hans on Aug 20, 2007 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by hans on Aug 20, 2007 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Jay on Aug 20, 2007 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
Please?
by gte619n on Aug 20, 2007 10:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by hans on Aug 20, 2007 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Joe on Aug 21, 2007 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Jay on Aug 21, 2007 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
(insert obligatory not meaning to suggest work for you comment here)
by Brick. on Aug 21, 2007 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
Basically, they're using the unneeded fifth starter spot to add a man to the bench, both now and in the postseason.
That leaves 11 spots for pitchers, with four starters and four relievers locked in. It's the last three spots that are interesting. They may fill all four spots with relievers -- leaving Lee and Laffey and Sowers off the 25-man on August 31. They can always pull one of them later in if there's an injury in the rotation, but if there isn't, and if one of them can't switch to the bullpen, then who needs them?
by Jay on Aug 21, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Brick. on Aug 21, 2007 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Jay on Aug 21, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Brick. on Aug 21, 2007 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
Who would you rather have in the bullpen, just through the end of the year, Lee or Laffey?
by Jay on Aug 21, 2007 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
you know, see if giving him a different mental approach (mental big with him apperently) makes a differnce. "go in there and give everything you've got into these three batters and we'll leave you alone till the day after tomorrow". He could throw harder and be more aggressive - perhaps he could gel this year and beyond in that role.
laffy i just assume start or rest.
by Brick. on Aug 21, 2007 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
5IP, 3R (2 earned), 10 baserunners, 4BB, 5K
Saturday should be fun times.
by supermarioelia on Aug 21, 2007 1:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Gradyforpresident on Aug 21, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by Gradyforpresident on Aug 21, 2007 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
It really looks like Laffey, doesn't it?
Bitter pill for Lee if he's not on the August 31 roster.
Meanwhile, Elarton put up two 0's, allowed a single and a double, no walks and 3 K's.
by Jay on Aug 21, 2007 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by supermarioelia on Aug 21, 2007 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by NickFantana on Aug 21, 2007 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
Elarton probably should have reinvented himself as a reliever two years ago, but the money he got as a starter was too good to pass up.
by Jay on Aug 21, 2007 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
by palcal on Aug 21, 2007 9:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
Now work on this Wedge fella and his batting lineup where Blake and Lofton should bat ahead of Grady.
by hans on Aug 21, 2007 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sowers vs. Lee vs. Laffey in a SP Deathmatch
- Have Lee start the game on the 30th so he could be eligible for the postseason, just in case one of our top 4 guys go down to injury and we need a veteran starter in the playoffs (I don't trust Sowers or Laffey to be a starter in the playoffs).
- Add Adam Miller to the 40.
- DL Mujica with a forarm strain/tendinitis/whatever to open a slot in case we want to use Miller ala Frankie Rodriguez in 2002.
by talonk on Aug 22, 2007 7:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts on your points!
Regarding #1 - Though Lee has more ML experience than Sowers or Laffey, he has no more playoff experience than those two; personally, I'd rather ride the hot hand. Plus, we'd probably only need 3 starters for the first round.
Now, in terms of becoming a reliever, Lee would probably be my first choice; there, I would agree, but not as a starter - Lee would be just as likely to implode as either Sowers or Laffey in my opinion, since NONE of them have playoff experience.
- I agree with this one, though I wouldn't rush him back, as I'd want to make sure he's healthy first.
- I agree with this point, though I'd think I'd rather DL LHP Aaron Fultz (yes, he has experience, but I'm not that comfortable with him; Mujica had also been better of late, though I'm not totally convinced about him yet, either, but despite Fultz's experience level, I'd be more willing to lose his arm than I would Mujica's if he proves he can get ML hitters out consistently - i.e. take the power arm with good control over the ML experience who has gotten ML hitters out more often than not this year, but has trouble getting out of bases loaded and runners on situations unscathed. Plus, Wedge hasn't used him much lately, making me think he's lost confidence in him, plus the fact Perez has been terrific in the set-up role.)
by indiansfan on Aug 23, 2007 12:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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