BA rankings
Baseball America has published Top Ten rankings by position of the top prospects in the minors, according to them. Some interesting rankings:
Catcher - Matt McBride (5th)
A little surprised here...haven't looked at the numbers lately. I thought he was having a fine year but wasn't tearing it up or anything. FYI, Max Ramirez is 7th.
1B - Jordan Brown (5th)
Again, a little surprised. Big question here is if the doubles power will translate to home run power.
3B - Wes Hodges (7th)
SS - Cabrera (3rd)
CF - Barton (9th)
RH starter - Miller (9th)
Injuries obviously hurting this ranking.
LH starter - Lofgren (4th)
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31 comments
Comments
Re: BA rankings
by woodsmeister on Aug 8, 2007 8:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: BA rankings
by TribeJay on Aug 8, 2007 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: BA rankings
I don't know. I disagree with BA a lot of the time. Like, with nearly all of those rankings. I can't say that I know enough about all systems to actually eyeball rankings like this but these numbers don't seem right. At all.
by afh4 on Aug 8, 2007 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: BA rankings
by Joe on Aug 8, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: BA rankings
by afh4 on Aug 8, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just guessing here!
These are just guesses on my part, but:
Brown - To me, he profiles more like a Mark Grace type - supposedly above-average defense at 1B (when healthy,) probably will hit anywhere from .280-.320 with around 15-20 HRs, and if the 2Bs power (31 so far in 387 ABs) turn into HRs, 25-30 HRs wouldn't be out of the question. In addition, he has comparable plate discipline to Grace (45 BB/40 K in 387 ABs) - that's not a bad prospect at all, as I'd think a lot of organizations would want a hitting prospect like that in their organization, especially since he's only 23 and looks to be pretty much ready for AAA right now (has an over .900 OPS at AA.)
Now, perhaps you're thinking more of him as a LFer, and I agree that his defense probably wouldn't be more than average and his offensive production wouldn't distinguish him among many OF prospects. However, the ranking was of him as a 1B, not as a LFer. And, just off the top of my head, I can't think of too many premier 1B prospects in the Minors - Cincinnati's Joey Votto is one of the few to come to mind, so that too likely helped Brown's ranking. I'd certainly take Brown over Yankees' 1B prospect Eric Duncan, who while being young at each level, really has not impressed at any level (really reminds me a lot of Marte, who isn't living up to his potential either at this point.)
C McBride - .280+ (what's he been at most of the year; currently at .278) isn't anything to sneeze at, especially since catching prospects usually tend to wear down as the season goes on. His OPS is .764, certainly decent enough for a C. I also suspect that McBride is concentrating more on his defense; the Indians seem pretty sure he'll hit - it's just a question of whether his good catching tools will allow him to be a premier defender at the ML level. Right now, he's had much trouble with PBs (somewhere around 20, I think,) so I think the defense is the main issue at this point, not his offense.
Plus, again, how many premier catching prospects are there in the Minors? Again, I can't think of too many off the top of my head (Saltalamacchia and Clement were two of the very few elite catching prospects both offensively and defensively,) but this likely also helped McBride's ranking.
Same thing likely with Barton; there are few Justin Uptons in the Minors, and even though Barton is 25, has always gotten high praise for being essentially a potential 5-tool player, and those types of prospects aren't very prevalent in the Minors. Keep in mind that Barton was included in the CF list, and there aren't too many Minor League OFers who profile as CFers AND have Barton's tools.
And, Barton's AA performance of .314/.416/.440 wasn't weak for a CFer either, which also likely helped Barton reach the Top 10, despite being 25-YO.
These are just my opinions of how they came to these rankings. While I think they are debatable, I don't think they're that much off the mark, especially when you consider the limited elite prospects at each position that are clearly better than guys like Brown, McBride, and Barton.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
by indiansfan on Aug 8, 2007 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Just guessing here!
That said, this statement:
Brown - To me, he profiles more like a Mark Grace type
????????????????????????????? Are we serious?
by afh4 on Aug 8, 2007 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Just guessing here!
by fleerdon on Aug 8, 2007 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check these three pages and see if you
- limited power, especially for a 1B
- pretty solid defender (Grace arguably is better, but Brown seems to be above-average over there from what I've heard)
- hits for a high BA
- has good plate discipline
Check the three links for yourself and see if you still think that comparison is THAT far-fetched:
Mark Grace's career stats
Jordan Brown's career stats
Jordan's Brown 2007 season up-to-date stats.
Just my 2 cents. :-)
by indiansfan on Aug 8, 2007 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Check these three pages and see if you
These types of comps confuse rather than instruct.
by homelytourist on Aug 8, 2007 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Check these three pages and see if you
by afh4 on Aug 8, 2007 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Check these three pages and see if you
Jordan Brown won't be a Adam Dunn type player, someone who hits a ton of homers, Ks a ton, and BA sucks. There are somewhat distinctive types of hitters. Brown, according to Indiansfan's prediction/assessment fits into a certain type. Grace just happens to be a hall of famer version of this type.
by hans on Aug 8, 2007 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Check these three pages and see if you
by afh4 on Aug 8, 2007 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mentioned Sean Casey before I read your
No offense Andrew, but again, I'm not saying Brown is a HOFer - I think you keep making that jump because I'm comparing Brown to Grace. I'm not saying he'll be as good as Grace; I'm saying he'll offer comparable skills to Grace.
If I may ask, why is it okay to compare Brown to Casey, but not to Grace, when all three have comparable skills? You can see it in their stats, in their approach at the plate, etc. In other words, it's not okay to say that Casey profiles like a Mark Grace-type player just because Grace is in the HOF? What if Grace was still playing? Then you could make the comparison, but because he made the HOF, now you can't use him as a comparison, even though his skills haven't changed?
No offense, I don't think it's sacrilegious or degrades a HOFer when you compare a prospect or current player based on comparable skills. Like I said, look past the HOF credentials and focus on the skills - the comparisons are there - hans and I both see them.
These types of comparisons are made quite often - remember when Matt Whitney was drafted and his bat was being compared to Manny Ramirez's? And yes, Ramirez wasn't a HOFer at the time Whitney was drafted, but even then, there was a pretty good chance that Ramirez would make the HOF, so I think when someone makes a comparison regarding a current player or prospect to a HOFer, you have to analyze the comparable skills of those players and look past the HOF credentials. That's why I think you have difficulty making the comparison, but when you compare the skills, I think the comparison is an apt one and not a far-fetched one.
Just my 2 cents - no offense. :-)
by indiansfan on Aug 9, 2007 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Check these three pages and see if you
I don't know why I hadn't mentioned this before but it makes no sense to compare any of Grace's power numbers, minor or major leagues, to a current player.
by afh4 on Aug 8, 2007 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you hans!
Hans got exactly what I was pointing at. :-)
No offense, homelytourist and Andrew, I think you two are getting confused because you are having trouble looking past Grace's HOF credentials; don't focus on Grace being a HOFer; look at the skills Grace brought, even in the Minors, and look at what Brown brings, and tell me if you don't see similarities.
I used Grace because he had similar skills and just about everybody knows who he was and how he played - that's why I used him as a comparison. Using a no-name Minor Leaguer or some average regular wouldn't have been as useful a comparison because most people are familiar with Grace. How about Sean Casey, another non-prototypical 1B in the same mold as Grace and similar to what I see Brown becoming? Is that a better comparison for you, since Casey isn't a HOFer, but offers comparable skills?
I'm sorry if it confused you, but really, I don't think the comparison is a bad one. I'm not saying Brown will be a HOFer; I'm saying I can see Brown being that type of non-prototypical 1B - one who hits for a .300+ BA, lesser power than you expect from a 1B, good plate discipline, and solid to good defense at 1B.
Just my 2 cents - no offense. :-)
by indiansfan on Aug 8, 2007 11:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Thank you hans!
by afh4 on Aug 9, 2007 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Thank you hans!
Mark Grace might be one of the 20 best fielding first basemen of all time, and yet you've casually determined that a b-prospect who happens to be in our system can play at an equal (or comparable--whatever that means) level. That's where you lose your audience.
by homelytourist on Aug 9, 2007 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No longer meaningful in what way?
I'm not sure I follow - why? Because those two have demonstrated those skills at the ML level and Brown hasn't?
Please elaborate - thanks!
by indiansfan on Aug 9, 2007 12:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: No longer meaningful in what way?
On top of all this, Mark Grace's power numbers are a product of his era. He's not really comparable to either of these guys in that sense.
by afh4 on Aug 9, 2007 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No longer meaningful in what way?
I understand the criticism, but it's pretty common for someone to say, for example, that Jeremy Sowers is a Tom Glavine type. It doesn't mean he's likely to win 300 games -- but then again, neither was Glavine.
The only real exaggeration here is the defensive element. Brown has a solid defensive rep, but Grace is one of a handful of the best defenders ever at his position. A solid defensive rep in the minors doesn't equate to much better than average in the majors.
by Jay on Aug 9, 2007 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No longer meaningful in what way?
And I think it's equally ridiculous to say Jeremy Sowers is Tom Glavine like. It's exactly what people we're saying last year and now it looks very, very silly.
My overall point is these kinds of comparisons are, for anyone who follows baseball closely at all, virtually worthless. And especially worthless when in the context of a list (as Jordan Brown is on) because now you're using it as a comparative tool.
by afh4 on Aug 9, 2007 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No longer meaningful in what way?
by Joe on Aug 9, 2007 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No longer meaningful in what way?
If you said prospect X that you haven't heard a lot about is in the Jamie Moyer/Tom Glavine mold then you have a much better picture at what his skill set is than if you just saw that he was 10-4 with a 3.00 ERA in AA at 24 years old. You would know by the comparison taht prospect X is probably a lefty with a plus change, but doesn't throw hard and may not even have a great breaking pitch.
I know there are some better stats that you might like to see and would give you a better idea of how to think of the propect, but using a well known player is something that most people can easily relate to.
If someone said 10 years ago that Sean Casey was like a Mark Grace, I would understood what they were talking about and now would realize that its a decent comp. Maybe not as good, but Casey has a similar skill set: plus D, high avg, relatively little power, not a ton of K's, etc.
not to mention that Mark Grace shows up as the #4 best comp to Casey through at his current age.
by Ryan Kelsey on Aug 9, 2007 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No longer meaningful in what way?
DD, your comment -- I think it is very instructive to say that a player has a similar style or skill set as a better known player -- doesn't seem to be what Andrew took exception to. Let's look at the original quote.
(Emphasis mine.)
Joe, don't let me put words in your mouth, but taken alone, this diction suggests you fully expect Jordan Brown not only to make it to the bigs, but to excel -- .300 with 25 HRs and plus defense? Taken with the caveat that everything I know about player development, I've learned from this site, that outcome strikes me as being a few sigmas north of the 50% line. It's possible Andrew reacted a big strongly to it, but you have to admit he's at least got a defensible position here.
Nobody's saying player comparisons are valueless. And nobody's saying that Sean Casey and Mark Grace didn't have similar skill sets. They did. But they had that skill set in the major leagues, whereas Brown has that skill set in AA. I don't mean for any of this to detract from Brown as a prospect, either. But at this point, if he turns out to be a LH Ryan Garko, he'll be wildly successful.
by fleerdon on Aug 9, 2007 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No longer meaningful in what way?
My point was more what fleerdon is pointing towards, especially when viewed in the light that a comparison to Mark Grace is being used as a rationale for Jordan Brown's prospect ranking. It seems like you're saying Brown projects out to be a player similar to Grace in skills and major league results, and that's why he is rated correctly.
I've already made it clear I think this is a bit much, just as I thought it was a bit much when some people started to project Sowers to have a career like Glavine's last year, as opposed to profiling somewhat like Glavine.
The argument has turned into a distinction over "projecting as a type" versus "projecting to a career with similar numbers." Obviously, this isn't terribly interesting, but I"m glad someone doesn't think I'm insane or ignorant or whatever.
by afh4 on Aug 9, 2007 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No longer meaningful in what way?
by Brick. on Aug 9, 2007 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No longer meaningful in what way?
by afh4 on Aug 9, 2007 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No longer meaningful in what way?
Well, don't put words in MY mouth, either.
by fleerdon on Aug 9, 2007 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: No longer meaningful in what way?
by Ryan Kelsey on Aug 10, 2007 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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