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Secret Sauce and Betancourt

Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus has put up the leaders in his "secret sauce" for 07. http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=548 . Historically, what matters in the playoffs is having a) a pitching staff that throws alot of K's, b) a good defense, and c) a good closer. These relative quantities make up the "secret sauce".

How does the tribe make out? Not so well, but I think 2 of the tribe's quantities are misrepresented in a short series, and the third can be adjusted. For a) the tribe has power starters in 4 of the 5 games, so there short series staff is much more powerful than the regular season staff. For b) the tribe defense isn't that great, but pitchers like Byrd don't make it look much better and his pitching frequency will go way down in the playoffs.

As for c). Borowski's relatively low WXRL (wins above replacement) give the tribe a low number. But Betancourt is 2nd in the majors in WXRL. If he was the tribe's closer, they would jump to second in the AL playoff teams in this metric. Instead they are last.  

Metrics are metrics, and don't determine winners. But Betancourt and Perez need to pitch the highest leverage innings in the playoffs. If the high leverage innings are the 7th and 8th, I am fine with seeing Borowski in the 9th. But if they are the 9th, one of those two will hopefully be out there.

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Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
I don't dispute the quality of the theory behind this, but as with a lot of BP metrics these days, the execution seems to be sloppy.  Namely, they haven't taken the time to consider the actual playoff rosters of these teams.

Look at the defensive situation.  After June, we gradually replaced Nixon with Gutierrez, and Dellucci essentially with Lofton.  In the fourth quarter, we replaced Barfield with Cabrera, and we might guess that Garko will be better in October than his season numbers would show.  So we've upgraded defensively at three or four different positions, but this report would know nothing of this.

Now let's look at the K rates, which they include because they've found that power pitchers are more likely to hold up in the postseason and/or against good lineups, etc.  Trying not to have rose-colored glasses on this, but I really do think that the K rate substantially understates the dominance of our particular staff.

Of course it's true that the full-season team stats are loaded up with low-K-rate innings from the likes of Sowers and Laffey and Lee, who will play no meaningful role in the postseason, and especially Byrd, who will have no role in the first round.  But you probably would find the same thing for just about any of these teams.  No, the more significant issue is the Indians more significant pitchers.

Sabathia, with a great K rate coupled with outstanding walk rate -- when you're fooling guys in the zone, you're dominating.  Westbrook's 6.01 K rate over the last two months combined with his extreme groundball tendencies make it dubious to lump him in with the mass of nibblers and junkballers.

But Fausto of course is the real anomaly -- and I said so even back in March, his K rate clearly understates his ability to dominate hitters, and he's been anomalizing away at this for four years now.  But his K rate is also on the rise -- 3.32 for April and May, 6.72 for the last four months.

So they're trying to suggest something about power pitchers and dominance over good hitters, but does anybody really believe that the Indians postseason pitching situation is less dominant than the Red Sox or Angels, and about the same as the Yankees?  I sure don't.

by Jay on Sep 28, 2007 11:17 AM EDT   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Excellent analysis, Jay. Just one thing I'm not clear on... why can we guess that Garko will be better in October? Do you just mean that he's improved defensively over the course of the year?
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 28, 2007 11:24 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Yes, that's all I mean.  And just anecdotally, I haven't seen him make the kind of mistakes he was making in April and May in quite a while.

by Jay on Sep 28, 2007 12:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Ok. I can get behind that. thanks for the clarification.
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 28, 2007 1:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
I think this was just more of just reporting the numbers and not an objective analysis. I assume that will come later from BPro.

Agreed on the starting pitching. Objectively, the tribe has the weakest closer by far. But they have the best reliever overall in the entire playoffs. Usage patterns will be paramount, and that is why there is so much grumbling in this space (probably too much by me).

Health plays an issue too. Anybody know why Koplove was warming up so quickly when Betancourt pitched the 8th 2 days ago? I can't remember the last time I saw another pitcher up when Betancourt was pitching. This concerns me.

by oxforddave on Sep 28, 2007 11:44 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
I don't have a BP subscription, so I don't know whether they considered weighting their numbers in favor of player(s) who were more likely to see action in the postseason. It seems like a fairly obvious question to ask and I wonder if they answered it. Anyone know?

Another thing I'm not a fan is the way the way they 'combined' the three metrics to create a ranking system. Simply adding up the rankings in each category seems a little naive to me because one metric could have a wide distribution, while the others have a very narrow one. This is something I'd expect from ESPN, but not BP.  

by crazymoloh on Sep 28, 2007 1:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Plus, I really find it hard to buy a report that ranks KC, Cinci and Pittsburgh ten sports above the Padres and the Rockies!

by crazymoloh on Sep 28, 2007 1:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
getting in the playoffs is a different animal from doing well in a short series, secret sauce is basically all about excelling in categories that limit random noise

by royalsreview on Sep 28, 2007 2:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Actually a short series amplifies the "noise" the season is what decreases the effect of "noise".
LeBron must GO!

by mauichuck on Sep 28, 2007 2:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
right

but secret sauce tries to look at factors that take it back out, to an extent

by royalsreview on Sep 28, 2007 2:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Right.

It's about isolating those qualities that are more resistant to the effects of noise than the others.

by Jay on Sep 28, 2007 4:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Yeah, well in the end sometimes ya just gotta be lucky.
LeBron must GO!

by mauichuck on Sep 28, 2007 5:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
You'd rather be lucky than good, right?

Fortunately, if we luck our way through the postseason, we won't have any reason to feel bad about it, since we know the Indians are arguably the best team anyway.

by Jay on Sep 28, 2007 5:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Yeah and I wish I were rich instead of handsome too.
LeBron must GO!

by mauichuck on Sep 28, 2007 6:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
I'd rather be rich and handsome, which is the equivalent of the Indians getting lucky next month.

by Ryan on Sep 28, 2007 6:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
And hey, how come you haven't been over at the little LeBron coffeeklatch?
LeBron must GO!

by mauichuck on Sep 28, 2007 6:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
I'm writing something else about that already.

by Jay on Sep 28, 2007 7:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
its really sad that the indians are so reliant on a known roids user like betancourt

now I don't know how I'll be able to watch the playoffs with my children, it just sends the wrong message

by royalsreview on Sep 28, 2007 2:03 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
What the state of Missouri let you procreate?  I find this hard to believe.
LeBron must GO!

by mauichuck on Sep 28, 2007 2:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Nah, chill out guys. He's an occasional "good natured" spammer.
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 28, 2007 2:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
think of the children

betancourt destroyed our national innocence and the indians pennant should be labeled with an * (or blasted into space)

by royalsreview on Sep 28, 2007 2:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
I guess that answers my question. I guess I still have issues recognizing hyperbole and sarcasm.....

by crazymoloh on Sep 28, 2007 2:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
hey royalsr,
we're having some homerism infected analysis problems re the cy young.  give us the impartial analysis.

by emil minty on Sep 28, 2007 2:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Greinke takes it by a long shot
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 28, 2007 2:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
CC is a strong candidate. my perception of him as always been that he's not quite in the top tier, but then again, i don't know who that is anymore. I have no problem with CC winning over Beckett..

by royalsreview on Sep 28, 2007 2:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
He's no Gil Meche, M I RITE?!
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 28, 2007 2:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Man, I love these PED swipes.

I firmly believe that over 50% of the mlb was using some form of PEDs in the late 90s/early 00s. Heck I still believe that a good portion of them are still using (just the stuff they can't test for).

I hope one day when all the information that Mitchell has gathered is made public/leaked out, that the blowhards who rail on Bonds get to eat some crow when guys such as Clemens, Schilling, Randy Johnson, Hoffman, etc (and no I don't have any evidence) show up to have used.

Does it make it right? heck no. But I will always look on this era as one saturated on PEDs and the numbers are what they are, numbers on PEDs. Just like the 60s numbers are on based on high pitching mounds and greenies. Just like the pre Jackie Robinson years were based on not the best players in the world competing. Just like the pre 1920s pitchers could throw spitballs. Each era has its problems. If you dominate in any one of those eras, that makes you a HOF in my eyes.

by talonk on Sep 28, 2007 2:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Secret Sauce and Betancourt
Agreed with your assessment, but RR was just joking around, I believe.
Now the Lord can make you tumble, and the Lord can make you turn, and the Lord can make you overflow... but the Lord can't make you burn

by Turkmenbashi on Sep 28, 2007 3:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

By Betancourt's "Secret Sauce"...
I assume you mean 'roids? We don't see raffy's roid induced man titties, as a baseball jersey successfully covers them up. However, even a baseball jersey cannot cover up the behomeths of Bartolo Colon.

by joemeister on Sep 28, 2007 5:50 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: By Betancourt's "Secret Sauce"...
No, "secret sauce" is something the good folks at Baseball Prospectus have cooked up out of sundry statistics (although in some places it's just thousand island dressing).  Click on the link in oxforddave's original post.

by Fiddlesticks on Sep 28, 2007 5:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah, yeah
I know man, just couldn't resist...

by joemeister on Sep 28, 2007 6:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Damn thing still doesn't work properly...
no worries, we all have a bit of professor frinkorwhateverhisname in us.

by joemeister on Sep 28, 2007 10:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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