Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Greetings all.
I have a question for the posters here who are more knowledgable than I am about these sorts of things (admittedly, all of you). If we cannot sign CC, what kind of package would it take to pry Adam Jones away from the Mariners? I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that most of us would trade the big man straight up for Jones under that scenario. But realistically, what kind of package would it take?
After hearing Jones' name thrown around in the Bedard sweepstakes, it occured to me that with their desperate need for starting pitching and Bavasi's desire to win now so as to keep his job, we could poach a kid who had a .968 OPS in AAA as a 21 year old.
I may be way off-base on the perceived value for either side, but I submit it to the rest of you for discussion.
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Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
+1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
Hmm... doesn't that sound like another prospect we acquired who was supposed to be a very solid to very good player? In other words, Andy Marte? He had better BB/K ratios at about the same ages and levels Jones played at, yet Marte has struggled to adapt his skills, including his once strong plate discipline, to the MLs. That experience would make me a bit hesitant to just take Jones for Sabathia and think it's a fair trade - there's too much risk on our part in my opinion based on Jones' relatively weak strike zone judgment and the quick pace he went through the Mariners' system (arguably faster than it probably should have, as his poor strike zone judgment could hurt him at the ML level and may not be that easy for him to make that strike zone judgment stronger playing regularly at the ML level.)
While Marte and Jones are separate players, the main point is that Jones is no sure thing (no prospect is,) and while Jones is highly-touted and highly projectable, there are enough concerns in Jones' makeup (36 BB/106 K at AAA and 4 BB/21 K in 65 ML ABs, albeit at age 21, which suggests there are holes in his swing and approach, and several recent reports I've read on him say pretty much the same thing in regards to his swing, being that he has some severe BB/K ratios throughout his Minor League career) to make me think it's going to make more than Jones to get Sabathia, arguably one of the Top 5 pitchers in the league, and arguably, either the second or third best LHP in baseball (after Santana and maybe Bedard, though Sabathia has the more consistent, and arguably, better track record over Bedard, so I'd probably say Sabathia is second to Santana and above Bedard as a LH starting pitcher.)
Therefore, I agree with Andrew that it would take more than Jones to get Sabathia, even with just 1-year left on his current contract.
Just my 2 cents - no offense.
A correction!
This
"... to make me think it's going to make more than Jones to get Sabathia, arguably one of the Top 5 pitchers in the league,"
should be
"... to make me think it's going to TAKE more than Jones to get Sabathia, arguably one of the Top 5 pitchers in the league,"
Re: +1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
Re: +1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
Re: +1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
Re: +1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
Re: +1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
Don't feel bad. A lot of people didn't realize it was a joke when I wrote that Peralta's arm was paralyzed for an entire season.
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Re: I'll pass.
Re: I'll pass.
Re: I'll pass.
Re: I'll pass.
You'll pass on someone who tore up AAA pitching as a 21-year-old because you know one other person who did it and hasn't produced since?
No, no, you're being sarcastic. Whoo. I almost got all up in this business.
Re: I'll pass.
Re: I'll pass.
And I'm speaking under the assumption that there is more than Adam Jones coming our way.
Oh no you di'nt.
Re: I'll pass.
Re: I'll pass.
Still looking for Ted Cox's peripherals, which I suspect would settle a lot of these arguments.
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
I believe they can post league average. Which is perfectly acceptable and doesn't cost any prospects.
If they both bomb, we have plenty of options in the minors and/or midseason trade.
Prudence, is your friend.
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
CC is under contract for next year and is a FA. Are you trying to argue that Seattle would sign CC to an expensive long term deal? I see no evidence to suggest that.
A. Jones is likely the sticking point for a Bedard deal, for a guy who is under contract for more than just one year, not for a guy that is a one year rental. I don't see them trading A. Jones for one year of CC. Now if they are serious about signing him (through a signing window) than you can ask for a player like Jones.
If we are going to trade CC though, it should be, if possible to the NL. But outside of Kershaw, I don't think its worth it. Hughes from the Yanks is debatable, But, really ownership should take the steps to sign CC for a long term contract. He's a high end (i.e. top end production) starter at a relative young age.
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
by mkwng @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 12, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
by woodsmeister on Jan 12, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Considering what the Mariners are already rumored to be offering for Bedard, we could get Jones and another nice prospect. Quotes:
"Contrary to earlier reports, Stone was able to extract a quote from Ms GM Bill Bavasi that indicated Brandon Morrow was not off limits."
"The Orioles and Mariners were making progress on an Erik Bedard trade. The deal would center around Adam Jones but include other good young players as well."
"If the Mariners would give up Chris Tillman, they could have a done deal. Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein ranks the 19 year-old righty as Seattle's second best prospect, giving him a number two starter ceiling. Rosenthal confirms that Jones is the centerpiece, while George Sherrill and Carlos Triunfel are in play."
All these quotes from various links on MLBTradeRumors. Lookout Landing readers are livid at this arrangement, so it's safe to say this is probably the correct package Bavasi would do.
Sabathia > or = Bedard, considering the lower injury risk, the sustained success, and the shiny (shiny!) Cy Young award. Just something to consider.
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
It just looks like a perfect storm where you could sell high on CC, we could get a haul of talent, and Bavasi could turn to his fan base (the uninformed section) and say "look, I went out and snagged us a Cy Young winnder!"
And I reiterate, only if we have 100% decided that we cannot resign CC.
by Pronktastic on Jan 12, 2008 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Adam Jones is not as good as people think he is. He is like Marte in many ways and I don't think he would develop very well in this organization. Now if Adam Jones were traded to Atlanta he might fully develop all of his talents but in the pressure cooker of the AL Central with a team that is in the mind set of contending he would fail miserably.
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
by Kos @ Let's Go Tribe! on Jan 12, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Please explain.
"Now if Adam Jones were traded to Atlanta he might fully develop all of his talents but in the pressure cooker of the AL Central with a team that is in the mind set of contending he would fail miserably."
It seems you have failed to distinguish Atlanta from Cleveland. The NL East should be highly competitive next year, and I'm sure both the organization and fan base have the mind set that they should be contending next year.

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