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Non-Jason Bay Outfielder

Greetings all.

I have a question for the posters here who are more knowledgable than I am about these sorts of things (admittedly, all of you).  If we cannot sign CC, what kind of package would it take to pry Adam Jones away from the Mariners?  I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that most of us would trade the big man straight up for Jones under that scenario.  But realistically, what kind of package would it take?

After hearing Jones' name thrown around in the Bedard sweepstakes, it occured to me that with their desperate need for starting pitching and Bavasi's desire to win now so as to keep his job, we could poach a kid who had a .968 OPS in AAA as a 21 year old.

I may be way off-base on the perceived value for either side, but I submit it to the rest of you for discussion.

0 recs  |  Comment 43 comments

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Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Aaron Fultz for Jones, straight up.  Bavasi might even throw in Balentin.

by Brick. on Jan 11, 2008 4:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Well, the key is to reacquire Eduardo Perez as trade bait, but I tried to stay away from stating the obvious.

by Pronktastic on Jan 11, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
I think not wanting to part with Jones is why the Bedard deal hasn't gotten done yet.
Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jan 11, 2008 5:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
I don't think it's a good idea to go CC for Jones straight up. I'd think CC for Jones and a B guy in AA and a couple of B-/C+ guys in A might be a starting place.

by afh4 on Jan 11, 2008 5:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
- while Jones is highly-touted, he has had trouble with the strike zone throughout his Minor League career (albeit at younger ages relative to league,) and he has been a bit rushed through Seattle's system.  

Hmm... doesn't that sound like another prospect we acquired who was supposed to be a very solid to very good player?  In other words, Andy Marte?  He had better BB/K ratios at about the same ages and levels Jones played at, yet Marte has struggled to adapt his skills, including his once strong plate discipline, to the MLs.  That experience would make me a bit hesitant to just take Jones for Sabathia and think it's a fair trade - there's too much risk on our part in my opinion based on Jones' relatively weak strike zone judgment and the quick pace he went through the Mariners' system (arguably faster than it probably should have, as his poor strike zone judgment could hurt him at the ML level and may not be that easy for him to make that strike zone judgment stronger playing regularly at the ML level.)

While Marte and Jones are separate players, the main point is that Jones is no sure thing (no prospect is,) and while Jones is highly-touted and highly projectable, there are enough concerns in Jones' makeup (36 BB/106 K at AAA and 4 BB/21 K in 65 ML ABs, albeit at age 21, which suggests there are holes in his swing and approach, and several recent reports I've read on him say pretty much the same thing in regards to his swing, being that he has some severe BB/K ratios throughout his Minor League career) to make me think it's going to make more than Jones to get Sabathia, arguably one of the Top 5 pitchers in the league, and arguably, either the second or third best LHP in baseball (after Santana and maybe Bedard, though Sabathia has the more consistent, and arguably, better track record over Bedard, so I'd probably say Sabathia is second to Santana and above Bedard as a LH starting pitcher.)

Therefore, I agree with Andrew that it would take more than Jones to get Sabathia, even with just 1-year left on his current contract.  

Just my 2 cents - no offense.

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Jan 11, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A correction!
Hello again everyone,

This

"... to make me think it's going to make more than Jones to get Sabathia, arguably one of the Top 5 pitchers in the league,"

should be

"... to make me think it's going to TAKE more than Jones to get Sabathia, arguably one of the Top 5 pitchers in the league,"

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Jan 11, 2008 6:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: +1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
I don't believe it makes a whole lot of sense for the Andy Marte experiment to enter into this discussion.  You can't let past mistakes affect future judgements, especially if they have no relevance to your current decision.  As you say, all prospects come with risk, but guys who are already so close to being ready like Jones and Marte have a great deal less risk.  We got unlucky with Marte (perhaps), but that has no bearing on how Jones will turn out.  He is an extraordinary talent, who would be under team control for 6 years vs. the 1 and done for CC, not to mention Jones would be filling a position of need.  And of course, this is all under the assumption that we cannot sign CC and the alternative is letting him walk for compensatory picks.

by Pronktastic on Jan 11, 2008 6:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: +1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
they gave jones two chances to prove himself at the major league level in 2006 and 2007 and he failed.  bust.

by emil minty on Jan 11, 2008 8:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: +1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
74ab's in 2006, 65 in 2007.  I'll take the small sample size defense.
Railing against the sacrifice bunt since 2000.

by jdudas on Jan 12, 2008 7:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: +1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
Were you calling Sizemore a bust after 2004?

by Voltaire on Jan 12, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: +1 - Jones himself is NOT enough for Sabathia
I got it.

Don't feel bad.  A lot of people didn't realize it was a joke when I wrote that Peralta's arm was paralyzed for an entire season.

by Jay on Jan 13, 2008 1:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
give bonds 10-12 mill next year. 100 games in are LF solved. let francisco fill in where necessary

by 7foot3 on Jan 11, 2008 5:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Thats one of the worst ideas I have ever heard of.  I personally hate Bonds but still even if I didn't it would be a horrible decision.
All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink

by E5 on Jan 11, 2008 10:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
why? (I have an idea why it would logically be a bad move, but I want to hear your idea why). That offense, when playing, will not be replicated by any player (even your beloved Jason Bay), next year.

by hans on Jan 12, 2008 2:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
While I don't hate Bonds the way others do, there is that little problem of an indictment and quite possibly prison time.
Railing against the sacrifice bunt since 2000.

by jdudas on Jan 12, 2008 7:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll pass.
see Marte, Andy (AAA, 2005)

by crazymoloh on Jan 11, 2008 6:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'll pass.
See my post above.  I just don't see how one guy not panning out should affect what we do going forward.  You win some, you lose some, but I think the two decisions are mutually exclusive.

by Pronktastic on Jan 11, 2008 6:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'll pass.
I think we an agree that there's an uncertainty with Adam Jones, an uncertainty that is a magnitudes higher than C.C's. That risk has to be spread around a couple of other good prospects.

by crazymoloh on Jan 11, 2008 8:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'll pass.
If it only costs Coco Crisp and change, I'd happily trade for another Andy Marte.
formerly 'tourist

by jhon on Jan 11, 2008 7:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'll pass.
Good point.
I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Jan 11, 2008 10:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'll pass.
Gosh I hope you're kidding.

You'll pass on someone who tore up AAA pitching as a 21-year-old because you know one other person who did it and hasn't produced since?

No, no, you're being sarcastic.  Whoo.  I almost got all up in this business.

by nickjs21 on Jan 12, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'll pass.
No. The point was that success in AAA as a 21 year old is no guarantee of anything. If we're trading away a sure (C.C) thing I want to get more than Adam Jones. Why don't you get all up in this business?

by crazymoloh on Jan 12, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'll pass.
I think you're understating what kind of "success" Adam Jones had in AAA.  As a 21-year-old.  

And I'm speaking under the assumption that there is more than Adam Jones coming our way.  

Oh no you di'nt.

by nickjs21 on Jan 12, 2008 6:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'll pass.
It's about as much of a guarantee as you can get.  Triple-A numbers are almost identically as projectable as major league numbers into future major league success.  A young star in Triple-A is as sure of bet as a 30-year-old solid-average guy in the majors and probably better.  It doesn't seem like it's true, but it is.

by Jay on Jan 13, 2008 1:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'll pass.
Have you seen Jeff's take on this yet?

by nickjs21 on Jan 13, 2008 12:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'll pass.
I hadn't, thanks for the link.  Jeff's a smart dude.

Still looking for Ted Cox's peripherals, which I suspect would settle a lot of these arguments.

by Jay on Jan 13, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Let's just face it that we are going to see Dellucci/Michaels in LF next year.

I believe they can post league average. Which is perfectly acceptable and doesn't cost any prospects.

If they both bomb, we have plenty of options in the minors and/or midseason trade.

Prudence, is your friend.

by Toxicadam on Jan 11, 2008 10:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Can I point out that Bedard is under contract beyond next year.

CC is under contract for next year and is a FA. Are you trying to argue that Seattle would sign CC to an expensive long term deal? I see no evidence to suggest that.

A. Jones is likely the sticking point for a Bedard deal, for a guy who is under contract for more than just one year, not for a guy that is a one year rental. I don't see them trading A. Jones for one year of CC. Now if they are serious about signing him (through a signing window) than you can ask for a player like Jones.

If we are going to trade CC though, it should be, if possible to the NL. But outside of Kershaw, I don't think its worth it. Hughes from the Yanks is debatable, But, really ownership should take the steps to sign CC for a long term contract. He's a high end (i.e. top end production) starter at a relative young age.

by hans on Jan 12, 2008 2:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Would the marlins be willing to listen on Hermida, I doubt it, but man would he be a nice fit.  It's hard to tell with them.

by ClarkM on Jan 12, 2008 4:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
If he's healthy.  Poor guy is cursed.

by mkwng on Jan 12, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
I imagine the Marlins are pretty much willing to listen to offers for pretty much any of their players.
"Hey, you! Get off our lawn!" -- New Detroit Tigers Team Motto

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jan 12, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
I've loved him for a while, but my love has been scorned by DL time.

by nickjs21 on Jan 12, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
First of all, if he isn't Jason Bay, why are we even talking about him?

Considering what the Mariners are already rumored to be offering for Bedard, we could get Jones and another nice prospect.  Quotes:

"Contrary to earlier reports, Stone was able to extract a quote from Ms GM Bill Bavasi that indicated Brandon Morrow was not off limits."

"The Orioles and Mariners were making progress on an Erik Bedard trade.  The deal would center around Adam Jones but include other good young players as well."

"If the Mariners would give up Chris Tillman, they could have a done deal.  Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein ranks the 19 year-old righty as Seattle's second best prospect, giving him a number two starter ceiling.  Rosenthal confirms that Jones is the centerpiece, while George Sherrill and Carlos Triunfel are in play."

All these quotes from various links on MLBTradeRumors.  Lookout Landing readers are livid at this arrangement, so it's safe to say this is probably the correct package Bavasi would do.

Sabathia > or = Bedard, considering the lower injury risk, the sustained success, and the shiny (shiny!) Cy Young award.  Just something to consider.  

by nickjs21 on Jan 12, 2008 11:25 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
Except for years under contract.

by Voltaire on Jan 12, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
I agree totally with what you are saying.  I think the Mariners are in a unique, albeit delusional, win now mode.  In addition to that, they have a GM who has made some seriously questionable moves in the past and whose job is also under pressure.  

It just looks like a perfect storm where you could sell high on CC, we could get a haul of talent, and Bavasi could turn to his fan base (the uninformed section) and say "look, I went out and snagged us a Cy Young winnder!"

And I reiterate, only if we have 100% decided that we cannot resign CC.

by Pronktastic on Jan 12, 2008 12:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
If Seattle acquired C.C they would be legit contenders in the AL West.  If we traded C.C we would be a legit .500 team.  If Bavasi could pull this move he should think about doing it.  Their core players aside from King Felix are moving pass their primes and the farm system minus a few prospects is pretty bare.  

Adam Jones is not as good as people think he is.  He is like Marte in many ways and I don't think he would develop very well in this organization.  Now if Adam Jones were traded to Atlanta he might fully develop all of his talents but in the pressure cooker of the AL Central with a team that is in the mind set of contending he would fail miserably.  

All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink

by E5 on Jan 12, 2008 12:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
So losing CC would cost us 25 games?

Sounds about right.

by Pronktastic on Jan 12, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
I didn't think it was possible, but your making even less sense now than you were two months ago.

by Kos on Jan 12, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Non-Jason Bay Outfielder
"Adam Jones is not as good as people think he is."

Please explain.

"Now if Adam Jones were traded to Atlanta he might fully develop all of his talents but in the pressure cooker of the AL Central with a team that is in the mind set of contending he would fail miserably."

It seems you have failed to distinguish Atlanta from Cleveland.  The NL East should be highly competitive next year, and I'm sure both the organization and fan base have the mind set that they should be contending next year.

by ClarkM on Jan 12, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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