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Around SBN: Can Tebow Say No To Anything?

sickels' top 20 prospects

by 7foot3 on Jan 14, 2008 5:37 PM EST Comment 69 comments

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/1/14/17208/9906

nobody even a B+, though he says Miller would be except for the elbow concerns. pretty much what we already knew.

"This system has thinned out at the top but still has depth. There is a large number of C+ guys, anyone from 9 through 18 could rank together depending on what you want to emphasize, so don't fret over the exact placement. I'm not a super-huge fan of Beau Mills, and probably rank him a tad lower than other analysts. I think he'll hit for power but I have questions about his other skills and want to see more pro data."

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Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I would question rating Trevor Crowe and Aaron Laffey the same

by Roger Dorn on Jan 14, 2008 5:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Yeah, the Laffey rating does seem a bit of a head-scratcher considering a 22 year old with a measure of major league success.

by Pronktastic on Jan 14, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

It's just an academic exercise.

It's fun. It's orderly. And then we can "compare" systems.

It's subjectively objective, and we like objective comparisons. But that's the point of scouting. See the player and make an informed judgment.

For what it's worth, the Indians used a trio of Sickels' 2007 C+ players to reach the post-season:
#13) Asdrubal Cabrera
#17) Raffy Perez
#19) Jensen Lewis

by rick on Jan 14, 2008 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I like Sickels, but I've never been impressed by his coverage of the Tribe organization. Perhaps not surprising since he's based out of Kansas and rarely sees any of the Tribe minor-league franchises in action in person.

by APV on Jan 14, 2008 6:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

case in point, Adam Davis #20...really? I'm pretty sure we could all come up with 30 guys we'd rate higher than Davis.

by APV on Jan 14, 2008 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I don't know, Davis has a pedigree in theory, and the bottom line is, how many of these guys do we really know something concretely good about? (Worst sentence ever?)

That's nice work misspelling both of John Drennen's names, though. And where are future HOFers Gregorio Rosario and Jeff Stevens?

by Jay on Jan 14, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Concrete good...hmmm...I'll have to think about that. I'll accept the pedigree argument for a year, but Davis has almost two full seasons of professional plate appearances (~850) and has a .247/.336/.351 line. None of it above A- and he's 22. Even his final year at Florida wasn't stellar (.295/.398/.424, down from .306/.395/.486). Davis had a few exciting weeks midsummer this past year, but like I said, I think we could all come up with at least 30 names of guys we think have a better shot at contributing something at the big-league level.

I'm sticking with my initial statement: I like Sickels but his coverage of the Indians system is really spotty and rests to a large degree on the guys he watched in college (like those from big CWS teams).

by APV on Jan 14, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Sounds about right. You'll notice I don't see much point in ranking guys below a certain point.

by Jay on Jan 15, 2008 2:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

How are you feeling about your boy Jon Drennan these days, Jay? That's a pretty brutal OBP he put up with the K-Tribe, though I see he's still a year and change ahead of the curve.

by fleerdon on Jan 14, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Mostly, I'm disappointed that nobody can be bothered to spell his name right. Which is funny, considering there's never been a pro ballplayer named "Drennan" as far as I can tell.

Obviously I'm disappointed in Drennen's season, but you're right, he's still young for his level and has plenty of projection left in him. Also a great example of a guy where it really helps to have that fifth year of Rule 5 exemption (2009).

At age 20, he not only has time to turn it around, but he's likely to get significantly stronger over the next 3-4 years, while simultaneously developing his skills. Drennen at first glance was a borderline EPS guy, but when power is the only thing that's a little light in the numbers, you give a teenager the benefit of the doubt.

You might notice that Drennen's OPS in 2006 was basically the same as Weglarz in 2007, Weglarz being just a few months younger at the time. Weglarz has a big edge in secondary numbers, it's true, but you know, Drennen's numbers look a little more like those of a talented young player.

Speaking of Rule 5, Whitney's year-by-year numbers kind of make me mad. He really put the organization in a box.

by Jay on Jan 15, 2008 3:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

1, cut a hole in the box...

by APV on Jan 15, 2008 7:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A few thoughts on Drennen's name!

Hello everyone,

I think many are subconsciously thinking of Bruce Drennan when they write John Drennen's name. :-)

And, to my knowledge, as I wrote above, I believe Drennen's first name is "John," like "John Olerud," not "Jon" like "Jon Nunnally."

No offense anyone - just want to make sure you've got the right spelling, which certainly helps when you want to look up stats on these players. :-)

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Jan 15, 2008 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I do want everybody to know I was making fun of Mr. Sickles. John Drennan could destroy me and my Brandon Pinckney-esque proportions, and as I will be at a spring training game or two this year I don't intend to get on his bad side.

Jay, by "young" prospect, you're referring to the young/old skill-set differences, right? So, Nicky has the stat sheet of a 32-year-old?

by fleerdon on Jan 15, 2008 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Are you still making fun of him in this post, too? I honestly can't tell. Your subtlety is just on a whole higher plane that I can't understand.

young/old skills -- yeah, that's what I meant, although I think such things are sometimes overplayed, it might be true that 20-year-olds just aren't supposed to have ridiculous walk rates.

by Jay on Jan 16, 2008 12:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Actually, that time it was just an honest mistake, but I was trying to balance clarity and your stated dislike for posts that merely disambiguate typos.

Special thanks to Wikipedia for teaching me the word "disambiguate."

by fleerdon on Jan 16, 2008 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Well, you know, there's a big difference between stuff I merely dislike and stuff that we (Ryan and I) won't tolerate. Although I grant you that in some cases, the difference is merely time and repetition.

by Jay on Jan 16, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

We have a guy in our system named Dallas Calwiezell and I've never heard of him? Sweet sassy molassy. Get this man on the Cirilo Cumberbatch train to awesome-name stardom.

by fleerdon on Jan 14, 2008 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

How does he do it? Baseball America has one writer who does the prospects for several teams, while Sickels covers all 30 teams. Assuming that he has the same data available to him as Baseball America does,they also the opinions of people throughout the minor leagues.

by LAIndianfan on Jan 14, 2008 7:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Have to admire the all around effort looking up stats and googles for all the teams, but Sickels is sticking to the shallow end of the pool when it comes to an in depth analysis of a single team that he's not a true fan of.

This is not an advert, but for a fanatic's perspective (read: way too thorough and much more accurate), check out Tony Lastoria's take over at Swerbs Blurbs and his own blog:

http://www.theclevelandfan.com/indians.php

This guy actually graduated from his hobby of posting on forums to making road trips to all minor league levels and talking to players and managers and FO development people (have a car, a microphone and a website and you are instant media, more power to him) to arrive at a much more definitive top 50.

This is only a plug insofar as Tony's list is far more accurate - not that I don't have quibbles with it - and it is definitely more reflective of ShapCo's own internal rankings.

by mcrose on Jan 14, 2008 9:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I'll add my recommendation to Tony's list as well - it's ridiculously in-depth and very well-researched.

by Ryan on Jan 14, 2008 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I'll 3rd or 4th or whatever that. The amount of information on the history of the guys was awesome.

by APV on Jan 14, 2008 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1 - I wholeheartedly agree about Tony's list!

Thank you to those who brought it to my attention - I think there is great information there that has added to my knowledge about Indians' prospects.

May the Tribe be great in 2008! :-)

by indiansfan on Jan 15, 2008 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

So what would our collective ranking be after polling the BA's, sickels, keith law's of the world. Somewhere in the #17 to #21 range?

Not that I would be bothered by that. It's always the same thing these last few years; no blue chippers, great depth, and then 2 to 4 guys come from seemingly nowhere to contribute to the big club.

That said, Snyder over Weglarz?

by cheech99 on Jan 14, 2008 9:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Yeah its pretty criminal how low Weglarz was ranked.

by hans on Jan 14, 2008 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

agreed. he's getting bashed a bit in the comments over it.

i'd be more inclined to respect the ratings if he could tell me who "jake" goedert is.

by emil minty on Jan 14, 2008 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Yeah apparently he plays 3B.

by hans on Jan 15, 2008 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I actually like our farm system better than I did last year. Of course we've suffered minor setbacks with Adam Miller, Crowe and Lofgren (who didn't pitch as well as he did in 06). To counter that we had breakout seasons from Weglarz, Hodges, Stevens, Goedert, Josh Rodriguez, Laffey, Lewis and Cabrera. Add Mills to the system, who would be an elite prospect if he can stick at 3rd, as well as Kelvin Diaz.

We lack a bonafide blue chipper in our farm system, but we have alot of talent and depth, and we could basically have a entirely home grown team by 2009:

C: Martinez
1B: Mills
2B: Rodriguez
SS: Cabrera
3B: Hodges
LF: Weglarz
CF: Sizemore
RF: Gutierrez
DH: Hafner

by JPFrost on Jan 15, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Where did Jhonny go?

I'll also add:

SP:Sabathia
SP:Carmona
SP:Miller
SP:Laffey
SP:Lofgren (Westbrook traded for prospects)

RP:Huff (Long man?)
RP:J. Lewis
RP:S. Lewis
RP:Perez
RP:Stevens
CL:Sipp

A pointless exercise, I know. But fun.

by Pronktastic on Jan 15, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Not quite homegrown, unless you mean none of them were ever established with another big league club.

by nickjs21 on Jan 16, 2008 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Have to put in a plug for Jordan Brown - I saw him at Akron a couple times last season, and he was very impressive, especially at the plate. If he can play the outfield, I think he can contribute this season.

by Ryan on Jan 14, 2008 11:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

There's a few guys that are graduating to Buffalo from Akron that could be on the ML radar this year - Brown, Lofgren, Stevens and Crowe could all see time during the season if they do well.

'Course that's after Snyder and Aubrey tear up the joint first.

by mcrose on Jan 15, 2008 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

'Course that's after Snyder and Aubrey tear up the joint first.

In Aubrey's case, after he tears up, well, you know...

by Ryan on Jan 15, 2008 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

His Yoga For Hammies subscription?

by mcrose on Jan 15, 2008 12:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I was going to post this. I am always amazed at the analysts who (under?) rate Brown. Here is a guy who has done nothing but flat-out produce for two years straight and is not receiving much pub.

by Toxicadam on Jan 15, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Absolutely agree. The guy's been mvp of his league two years in a row, substantially improving his ops while moving up a level each year. His first 3 pro years (2 full seasons) look a lot like Kevin Kouzmanoff's, not quite as good as Garko's but Garko was a year older.

by plato on Jan 15, 2008 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

"I'm not a big Fausto Carmona fan."
John Sickels
Feb. 22, 2006

Oh I know his concerns were legit., but still, Sickels thought he was highly overrated.

by DocNo on Jan 15, 2008 12:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

good point there!, i think Sickels list lacks depth, hes not updated as far as indians prospecst go, hes ranking Brad Snyner at number 6, despite he hasnt performed as a top prospect last year or the year before, Laffey is just a C+ guy in hist list, i would give him at least a B, and Weglarz is just a C+, i dont really like his list as much.. i was very impressed with the list that Tony Lastoria made...very deep and very scouted one....

by luifer5 on Jan 15, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

And, in totally unrelated news, it's good to be Kelvim Escobar.

by fleerdon on Jan 15, 2008 10:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

""STAY HUMBLE"" indeed.

by Brick. on Jan 15, 2008 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I'm just Kelvim's profile as a reminder to befriend more swimsuit models, and not just digitally.

by fleerdon on Jan 16, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I hate MySpace. How the hell is Kelvim "in my extended profile?"

Burn on, big river, burn on...

by Turkmenbashi on Jan 16, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Everyone who is still friends with Tom is in your extended profile.

"Hey, you! Get off our lawn!" -- New Detroit Tigers Team Motto

Pronk Needs You

by woodsmeister on Jan 16, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

There's so much to love in this profile.

About me:
the best gu y in the world

kelvim's Interests
General winning the cy young award

If Kelvim wasn't already my favorite Angels pitcher, he would be now. Stay humble.

by nickjs21 on Jan 16, 2008 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I love Kelvim Escobar and I always end up with him on my fantasy roster but looking at him in that picture and can see why he is always injured.

All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink

by E5 on Jan 18, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

OK E5, I'll bite. Why is he always injured?

(This outta be good).

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Jan 18, 2008 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Find Waldo.

All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink

by E5 on Jan 18, 2008 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

It's the gull wing, isn't it?

by mcrose on Jan 18, 2008 10:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Dodged another one huh E?

"the most vehement Yankee-hating guy I know" - Jay

by mauichuck on Jan 19, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Shouldn't go outside with no shoes on?

by nickjs21 on Jan 19, 2008 11:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

you nailed it, thats how you get lyme disease.

by hans on Jan 19, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

You know, looking at him like this, I can see Kelvim Escobar has all the tell-tale signs of Not-Being-Jake-Peavy Syndrome.

by fleerdon on Jan 19, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

or not a red sox syndrome

by Brick. on Jan 19, 2008 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I only look above the waistline.

I swear, next year is it.

by fwembt on Jan 21, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

The shirt on the hood of the car is my favorite part of the photo.

"Yeah, that's sweet Kelvim...no, wait...take your shirt off...yeah, whip it right down there on the car hood. Now show me some love."

by The DiaTriber on Jan 20, 2008 10:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I believe the phrase is "pop your shirt off." Thank you, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia.

by fleerdon on Jan 20, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

figuring we dont need another new diary on top prospects

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265464.html

by 7foot3 on Jan 16, 2008 11:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

BA's top 10 for the Tribe is up today:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265464.html

Chris Kline is a little more familiar with the Indian's farm system, and it shows. Interesting that he makes the strongest assumption I've seen to date that Miller will get an opportunity to start the season in Cleveland's pen. Not sure I'd disagree with that move - if Adam can get thru '08 with some ML success and a strong arm I'd be very happy.

by mcrose on Jan 16, 2008 11:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Didn't see your post, 7-3...

by mcrose on Jan 16, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I agree that BA's list looks pretty reasonable. Somewhat strangely I think, BA seems to be putting a little more emphasis on actual performance than projection, as evidenced by Francisco's appearance on the list and the relative absence of really young guys (just Mills and Weglarz below AA).

by APV on Jan 16, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

i was expecting (hoping maybe) to see josh rodriguez. would be nice to have a legit MI prospect

by 7foot3 on Jan 16, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

I think Josh Rodriguez will become one of our better prospects. Despite a relatively low batting average, he showed a knack for taking walks while not striking out too much, and he's got very good power potential for a MI. The only I wanna know is if he's good enough to stay at second. Common sense says he should have enough range and arm since he was shortstop. If he can, then he's very legit.

by JPFrost on Jan 16, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

of course, cabrera wasn't on BA's or BP's top 10, and sickels' had him at a C+, and that turned out pretty well

by 7foot3 on Jan 16, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Lots of love for David Huff. Interesting.

by fleerdon on Jan 16, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

#1 pick still riding SSS? Tough to get a read on him yet - not much reason to kick him off the list he was on last year. I try not to recall that Joba was still there when we drafted Huff.

by mcrose on Jan 16, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Ooof. I didn't know this painful fact.

by oxforddave on Jan 16, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

For some reason, soft tossing lefties "with polish" and undersized left fielders "with grit" serve as the Viagra of our draft team.

by mcrose on Jan 16, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

That projected 2011 lineup and rotation looks pretty nice. Also the ace of the rotation looks pretty nice.

by hans on Jan 16, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: sickels' top 20 prospects

Yes, that is an interesting prediction, although they may have just been saving themselves the trouble of picking a fourth prospect to turn into a starter.

Notable assumptions in the BA 2011 lineup:

C.C. re-upped.
Jake not re-upped after 2010.
Victor extended beyond 2010 option.
Peralta retained, option picked up for 2011, and kept at SS for four more seasons (while Asdrubal stays at 2B).
Marte dumped (or on the bench).
Miller stays healthy enough to stick.
Mills make the club and sticks at 3B.
Lofgren and Weglarz also make the club.
Betancourt not the closer (possibly not retained).

by Jay on Jan 16, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Chris Kline's best line....

"Prior to 2007, [Jensen] Lewis was best known in the organization for his Bob Uecker impressions and his lack of a third pitch."

I'm liking this kid more and more.

ken from alexandria

by ken from alexandria on Jan 16, 2008 7:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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